Now that thankfully most of the “drama” of Israel’s evacuation from Gaza of settlers (and of hundreds of extremist outside agitators) is winding down, it’s time to pay some serious attention to Palestinian politics. In particular, what are the hopes for finding a workable form of national unity inside Gaza once the IDF/IOF troops have finally left?
To a large degree, the answer for that lies with the Sharon government. Will it actually allow a robust Palestinian national administration to establish and exercise authority in the Strip after the disengagement? (See my last week’s column in the CSM for some thoughts on that.)
In addition to whatever longterm restrictions the Israelis may seek to retain on the Gazans’ ability to interact freely with the global economy, and to control their own borders and residency rights, in the short term there is also a real possibility that some in the Israeli security establishment may seek to puncture any Palestinian elation over the IDF/IOF withdrawal by launching one last massive, “didactic” strike against Gaza as they leave…
Let’s hope not.
(We can also expect that any such strike would only further consolidate Palestinian and Arab feeling around Hamas, which has always been far more doubting of the Sharon government’s bona fides than has Abu Mazen.)
But assuming the “best” re a relatively violence-free IDF/IOF withdrawal from here on, what can we expect regarding Palestinian politics?
Abu Mazen, as we know, has announced that the delayed elections to the Palestinian legislature will be held next January 21. Hamas has already said it will run in them. Abu Mazen– as I’ve written about on JWN a number of times in the past, and also here in Boston Review— has been much more realistic than Yasser Arafat ever was about the need to find a politically inclusive modus vivendi with Hamas, if the Palestinians are ever to have coherent national-level decisionmaking.
Also, as I noted in that BosRev piece, and in subsequent posts on JWN, inside Gaza, Hamas is certainly far better organized and more disciplined than the Palestinian secular nationalists. Many of the secular nationalists are known more these days for their profligacy, corruption, and intense internal jealousies than for any concrete service to their people.
(Abu Mazen is by and large– though perhaps not wholly– exempted from those kinds of criticisms.)
Hamas politburo president Khaled Mishal gave an important press conference in Beirut on Wednesday. It received sadly little attention in a US MSM that was absolutely drenched in the hyped-up “angst” of the settler-evacuations at the time. Luckily Israel’s HaAretz carried a fairly decent AP report of it:
Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is an important achievement, but it will not lead to Hamas’ disarmament, the organization’s political leader, Khaled Meshal, said yesterday.
Meshal told reporters in a briefing that his group was still committed to a six-month-old truce with Israel, but added: “Our joy should not let us forget the march for liberation and the restoration of the rights of the Palestinian people.
“The withdrawal is a precedent and an important achievement because it is the first real withdrawal from Palestinian lands, but we are still at the beginning of the road, and we will not lay down arms,” Meshal continued.
The Hamas leader claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon “wants to send a misleading message to the world, that he is a man of peace and must be rewarded for it,” charging that Sharon did not plan to remove Jewish settlers from all of Gaza.
“We will consider any part of the Strip that Israel keeps as a `Gazan Shaba Farms,” he said, referring to a disputed area on the borders of Lebanon, Syria and Israel.
The piece also noted that, “Meshal urged Arab countries not to hasten to normalize relations with Israel because of the withdrawal.”
Mishal has the distinction of having survived a very nasty and very personalized chemical-weapon attack that the Mossad launched against him in Amman, Jordan, in 1998.
Also quoted in that AP piece was Hamas’s spokesman in Gaza, Mahmoud Zahar. The piece noted that Zahar had told the London-based Saudi daily Al-sharq Al-Awsat that, “Hamas planned to move its fight to the West Bank after Israel completed its pullout from Gaza.”
Meanwhile, I have found this interesting interview that Mishal gave (by phone) to al-Hayat’s talented bureau chief in Damascus, Ibrahim Homeidi, on Tuesday. In addition to reporting many of the comments cited above, Homeidi also reported the following (quick translation by HC here):
Asked about Hamas’s competition with the Palestinian National Authority after the [Israeli] withdrawal, Mishal replied: “There is no-one who competes with the Authority for authority. We don’t seek [to exercise] authority in confrontation with the Authority, and no-one is above the law. But it is natural that no faction should be separated from Palestinian decisionmaking. We are comrades [shuraka’, = literally ‘co-participants’] in blood and comrades in decisionmaking. And decisionmaking is a national responsibility so large that no faction can be separated from it.” And Mishal stressed the necessity of, “reaching agreement on the conduct of the struggle against the enemy. The battle is still there even in the Strip because many things [regarding it] have not been defined yet.”
The Hamas political bureau head continued by saying that the movement [Hamas] “will shortly announce its agreement to participate in the [PNA] government” and that its concern about the elections is broader than “the concern about the delay”. He said, responding to a question, that the Movement “is committed to the decision for a ceasefire [ lit. a “calming”, tahdi’a] throughout the year 2005 but this ceasefire was [agreed to] on the basis of defined and reciprocal conditions including the ending of [Israeli acts of] aggression and the release of the prisoners.” He added: “If the enemy were to continue in its acts of aggression and its refusal to release the prisoners, then we would reconsider the calming. But from our side until this point we are committed to the calming.”
And has Hamas studied the [idea of] its leadership cadres being allowed to return to Gaza? Mishal replied: “Return is a legitimate right for every Palestinian. But the decision of the return of the leaderships and its timing is tied to the circumstances and developments of the coming stage, and events, and the leadership’s decision.”
To me, the most interesting thing there is Mishal’s announcement that Hamas will shortly be entering the PNA’s executive body. Recall that back in 1993-94, at the time when the Oslo Accords created this body called the “PA”, which would have some functions both to administer the areas of the WB&G from which Israel withdrew and would also be the body that negotiated the Palestinians’ broader, “final-status” claims against the Israelis, Hamas still adamantly opposed the whole process.
That was why, during the territories-wide elections of 1996 that voted Arafat in as PA “president” and also voted for a Palestinian Legislative Council, Hamas as an organbization completely abstained from participation because of the depth of its opposition to the Oslo process.
Here we are, nine years down the line, and Hamas is not only, as we know, planning to compete vigorously in the scheduled PLC elections– but now, Mishal is signaling its readiness to enter–though notably not to take over– the P(N)A’s government.
I think Hamas’s inclusion in the Palestinian political system is a very, very constructive step. As is its participation in the ceasefire so far. Of course, for Hamas– as for the Palestinian secular nationists– there are many tough issues remaining regarding whether and how to seek to retain some form of “armed struggle” option at a time when the struggle for an independent national state is still extremely far from being over. (My own strong view, for what it is worth, is– with respect to the Palestinians as well as to the south Lebanese– that strong, community-wide grassroots organization, strong internal discipline, and very smart leadership can, in today’s world, be more reliably expected than any attempts at “armed struggle” to win the Arab peoples struggling against Israeli occupation a sustainable and independent national future.)
But anyway, this is clearly a political story whose unfolding over the months and years ahead promises to be really interesting. Maybe I should start planning my next trip to Gaza?