It is almost beyond belief that Israel’s military has once again, in its massively disproportionate assault against Lebanon, hit a large group of very vulnerable Lebanese civilians who had sought shelter at Qana.
The last time that happened was in the crucial war of 1996, which was the turning point that (four years later) led to Israel’s unilateral (and ignominious) withdrawal from Lebanon.
I believe that Ehud Olmert, an untested leader eager to show his military “mettle”, ordered the present drastic over-reaction to a (relatively small) Hizbullah provocation as a way to demonstrate to his people that he is not “soft” on the Arabs. Also, to try to turn the tide of politics in Lebanon decisively against Hizbullah. It seems he had understood nothing of what occurred in the battle of 1996, and is still determined– at huge and quite unacceptable cost to Lebanon– to repeat almost all the same grisly strategic mistakes that Israel (when the militarily untested Shimon Peres was PM) made that year.
Just as the assault ordered by Peres in 1996 turned out to be a strategic defeat for Israel, so too does Israel’s present action in Lebanon appear to be turning out the same way.
In Haaretz today, veteran israeli strategic analyst Zeev Schiff writes (and sorry, no link) that Condi Rice,
- needs military cards, and unfortunately Israel has not succeeded to date in providing her with any. Besides bringing Hezbollah and Lebanon under fire, all of Israel’s military cards at this stage are in the form of two Lebanese villages near the border that have been captured by the IDF.
If the military cards Israel is holding do not improve with the continuation of the fighting, it will result in a diplomatic solution that will leave the Hezbollah rocket arsenal in southern Lebanon in its place. The diplomatic solution will necessarily be a reflection of the military realities on the ground.
I find these words interesting from a number of perspectives. First, Schiff is admitting that– for all the destruction Israel has rained on the Lebanese citizenry over the past 17 days– still, they have been able to take and hold only two Lebanese villages. (I note that he seems to measure “military cards” almost wholly in terms of facts established on the ground, an analytical judgment that I agree with.)
Second, he seems clearly to be urging the Israeli military command to establish more “facts on the ground” than they already have.
Third, he is writing from the clear premise that there is close coordination between the Bush administration’s diplomacy and Israel’s military actions. In one sense, we all know this to be true at this point. The Bushites have clearly been holding up the attempts to get a ceasefire as a way of giving the Israeli assault more time to continue. But Schiff is saying something a little different from this. He is saying not so much that American diplomacy has been buttressing Israel’s military interests as that Israel’s assault has been serving the Bushites’ broader diplomatic interests (even if, from his perspective, they have not yet done so enough.)
Schiff is a very smart and well-informed person, but on occasion he acts a bit as a mouthpiece for the Israeli military’s propaganda. Is the Israeli military now trying to tell the world that they have been doing everything they’ve been doing over the past 17 days as a “service” to the Bush administration?
Anyway, as I’ve written before, for every day this fighting continues, the death and suffering will continue. In Qana, elsewhere in Lebanon and Palestine, and in Israel (though on a far smaller scale). The idea that all this suffering does anything to “serve” the interests of the US citizenry is outrageous.
- (I’m enroute back to the US, currently overnighting in London. This slaughter in Qana, once again, is deeply disturbing. I’m still trying to get my head around it. I do know that Shimon Peres and his commanders were never ever held accountable for the Qana slaughter of 1996. I interviewed him in 1998 and asked him about it. He tried to blow off all responsibility for it, saying something to the effect that “We told the Lebanese to leave south Lebanon on that occasion so everything we did after that was quite legal and okay.” They’ve used this “warning people to leave their homes” PR maneuver again this time. It does not exculpate the Israeli commanders and leaders one iota and certainly provides no excuse under international law for their actions. It’s an outrage: people– including vulnerable young families, elders, and the sick, should be ordered away from their homes on the whim of a foreign military? And then, how on earth are they supposed to leave in safety if no safe access is afforded them? The whole argument is deeply manipulative and dishonest.)