What a contrast between the bellicose rhetoric and actions that the Bush administration deployed against Saddam Hussein’s regime three years ago and the pathetic bleats it is issuing against Iran today. Back in 2002-2003, the Bushies were threatening (and preparing to use) a concerted military attack in order to meet the strong “concerns” it had voiced about Saddam’s WMD program. Today, the worst threat that hawkish ambassador to the UN John Bolton can muster is to suggest that,
- if the Security Council doesn’t take tough action, the United States might look elsewhere to punish Iran — possibly by rallying its allies to impose targeted sanctions.
Many things have happened in the interim, of course. Firstly, the US military has become majorly bogged down in Iraq, where 130,000 US troops are deployed in positions extremely vulnerable to attack– especially by any forces sympathetic to Teheran, of which there are many inside Iraq. So Washington has zero possibility of mounting any credible threat of a major military intervention against Teheran. Bolton and Co. have ramped up the rhetoric against Iran a lot in recent months. But it is all hot air. Its major effect has been to stiffen Iranian defiance in response.
Second, of course nobody this time round, after what happened in Iraq, would take seriously any amount of questionable “information” the Bushies might claim they had that would point to an Iranian breakout from the NPT. And let’s remember that Iran still has not broken out of the NPT.
(AP reported Thursday that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on state television that, “We don’t want to be the ones to remind [everyone] who was right and who was not in Iraq, although the answer is obvious,”)
Third, the Bushies themselves have taken major steps to shred the NPT, culminating in last week’s decision to give India a completely free pass on its defiance of the whole NPT approach to cooperative, multilateral nonproliferation efforts.
My base-line on nuclear nonproliferation is firstly that I am strongly committed to creating a world without any nuclear weapons (or other WMDs), and secondly I believe that using a cooperative multilateral path is by far the best path to get to that goal. From this point of view, the NPT regime has its flaws– primarily, because it privileges those five countries that were deemed to be “nuclear weapons states” back at the time the treaty was concluded in 1968. But the NPT has some strong advantages, too. It aspires toward becoming a single, universal franework from nuclear non- and de-proliferation. (So it’s a pity the US never expended any real energy trying to get proven proliferators like Israel, Pakistan, and India to join it– back in the past time when such pressure might have made a real difference.) And Article Six commits all states including the nuclear-weapons states to participating in good faith in negotiations for a complete and general disarmament.
Certainly, the NPT is a much stronger and more egalitarian framework for nonproliferation efforts than the Bushies’ preferred approach of building selective alliances on a purely political basis around the world– an approach that surely, as with Israel and India (and the countries that have acted in response to those two), has merely spurred the further proliferation of nuclear weapons.
So far, the Iranians have been at pains to say that their aim is to develop a peaceful nuclear energy capability. Though who honestly knows what their longterm intentions are? But developing peaceful nuclear capacity is precisely what is allowed– or even, supposed to be facilitated– by the NPT. (It is probably quite unwise on longterm environmental grounds… but that’s another issue.) President Ahmedinejad has meanwhile done very well politically, at home, by portraying the US campaign against the plan as an attempt to deny Iran’s access to peaceful nuclear technology that is of real value to the country’s longterm development. He, and many other Iranian leaders, seems in general very happy to portray Iran as “standing up to Washington’s bullying.” (And some degree of support for this position can be felt far beyond Iran’s own borders.)
This, from AP yesterday:
- “The people of Iran will not accept coercion and unjust decisions by international organizations,” Ahmadinejad said, according to state television. “Enemies cannot force the Iranian people to relinquish their rights.”
“The era of bullying and brutality is over,” he added.
My best judgment at this point is that if either the US or Israel take action against the Iranian nuclear program, the response– and not just from Iran, indeed, perhaps not even from Iran at all– would most likely be broad and highly detrimental to the stability of the present, already very fragile strategic “order” in the Middle East. What’s more, I am sure that the decisionmakers in Washington and Israel all understand this. Hence the bleatiness of Bolton’s rhetoric.
We should not forget, though, that Israel’s raid against Iraq’s Osirak reactor was undertaken in the context of a hard-fought election campaign in Israel, in 1981. Is there any ffear that a besieged Olmert, fighting for his political life at the polls, might seek to launch a repeat performance?
So far, I don’t think so. Hawkish former IDF chief of staff Moshe Ya’alon told a US audience yesterday that Israel could launch an attack on Iran that would set back its nuclear program “by several years”. He hinted that this attack might come from submarine-launched missiles, not just from the air. (But I wonder where the Israeli subs would be located for this? Interesting question.) But according to that same Ha’Aretz report,
- Ya’alon also warned that Iran would clearly hit back hard in the event of such an attack, and cited Tehran’s long-range Shihab missiles, Katyusha rockets that Hezbollah has in its possession, and Qassam rockets that Palestinian militants habitually fire into southern Israel from the Gaza Strip. He added that a rise in oil prices could be further fallout from such an assault.
I also note that retaliatory action could well be launched against the US troops in Iraq, since no-one in the world would imagine that israel would take such an action against Iran without getting at least an orange light, if not a green light, from Washington first.
(Former Israeli Air Force commander Eitan Ben-Eliyahu told HaAretz that speaking publicly about these things in the way Ya’alon had done, could be harmful.)
Also of note from today’s HaAretz on the Iran-nuclear question, this from Reuven Pedhatsur:
- There could not have been a worse timing for the signing of the nuclear pact between the U.S. and India last week. While President Bush is leading the international campaign against the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran, it legitimized India’s nuclear program, and thus granted India the status of a legitimate nuclear power in every respect.
This happened two years after he announced with great resolve that new nuclear powers should not be added to the list of the five nuclear powers, and eight years after the American administration imposed sanctions on India after it conducted a series of nuclear tests.
Tehran can rub its hands with glee, reading the details of the agreement that Bush signed with Indian Prime Minister Singh.
…When Bush was asked at the joint news conference with the Indian prime minister why the U.S. is rewarding a state that conducted nuclear bomb testing in 1998 and did not sign the NPT, and what message he was sending to other countries, the president responded with “what the agreement says is that things change and times have changed.”
That’s not a particularly successful response, nor does it strengthen the American position as the country that is supposed to lead the campaign to prevent nuclear weapons from reaching other countries.
…[T]he American president has greatly harmed the chances of denying nuclear weapons to Iran. From now on, the U.S. will find it difficult to present a morally authoritative position in its negotiations vis a vis the Iranians. And then there’s the Israeli angle. If India is accepted by the Americans as a legitimate member of the nuclear club, and even wins some nice benefits from it, it is possible that the time has come to start thinking about certain steps along the nuclear path it paved.
Bottom line: We should think of George W. Bush not just as someone who has launched a terrible and quite unnecessary war that has wrecked Iraq, destabilized the Middle East, and given Osama Bin Laden a virtually free pass to roam around the mountains of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border at will– but also as someone who has significantly aided the spread of nuclear weapons around the world while undermining the global mechanism that is best-placed to contain and then reverse the spread of nuclear weapons.
What an extremely dangerous man.