Nuclear proliferation developments

I think it’s very important to get onto the record this short and sensible position paper on the threat of Iranian nuclear proliferation, written by Pierre Goldschmidt, the former Deputy Director General of the IAEA and head of its Department of Safeguards from 1999 to June 2005. He argues that the IAEA’s various safeguards regimes around the world have improved considerably in capability in recent– but just at a time when the political will to use them seems to be eroding.
He recommends this:

    action by the United Nations (UN) Security Council to adopt a generic binding resolution that would establish three peaceful measures for containing crises when a state is found by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to be in non-compliance with its safeguards obligations. These measures are strengthening the IAEA’s authority to conduct the inspections necessary to resolve uncertainties, deterring the noncompliant state from thinking it could withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and then enjoy the benefits of ill-gotten material and equipment, and suspending sensitive fuel-cycle-related activities in the state.

… And just when we thought maybe the government of Iran and North Korea might be the scariest actors in the nuclear-weapons field, along came France’s President Jacques Chirac to threaten the world, according to this piece in friday’s WaPo,

    that France was prepared to launch a nuclear strike against any country that sponsors a terrorist attack against French interests. He said his country’s nuclear arsenal had been reconfigured to include the ability to make a tactical strike in retaliation for terrorism.
    “The leaders of states who would use terrorist means against us, as well as those who would envision using . . . weapons of mass destruction, must understand that they would lay themselves open to a firm and fitting response on our part,” Chirac said during a visit to a nuclear submarine base in Brittany. “This response could be a conventional one. It could also be of a different kind.”
    The French president said his country had reduced the number of nuclear warheads on some missiles deployed on France’s four nuclear submarines in order to target specific points rather than risk wide-scale destruction.
    “Against a regional power, our choice is not between inaction and destruction,” Chirac said, according to the text of his speech posted on the presidential Web site. “The flexibility and reaction of our strategic forces allow us to respond directly against the centers of power. . . . All of our nuclear forces have been configured in this spirit.”

What a sad and dangerous old man. It makes you wonder whether France– or indeed any of the world’s five “recognized” nuclear-weapons states– should still be trusted by the rest of the world community to be able to “manage” their possession of these globe-threatening weapons responsibly.
By my count at least two of them– France and the US– are currently on the record as stating that they are not prepared to make any declaration of “No first use” of these ghastly weapons of doom.
Onward with the negotiations for “complete and general disarmament” that mandated 35 years agoby Article 6 of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, I say!
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Addition, Monday morning:
I’ll just make a quick diversion into the topic of the world’s (currently four) non-“recognized” nuclear-weapons states, of which Israel is of course the doyen. Commenter Frank sent me a link to this Jerusalem Post article that describes a panel discussion on nuclear proliferation at Israel’s annual swanky and prestigious “Herzliya conference”. (All the “best and the brightest” of the Israeli security-political establishment tend to turn up there. Two years ago, it was the place where Ariel Sharon first announced his “Disengagement” strategy.)
During the discussion at this year’s conference, Sir Michael Quinlan, the former Permanent Under-Secretary at the British Ministry of Defence,
suggested that if Israel wanted to seriously diminish future nuclear threats, it should be prepared to negotiate the status of its own nuclear program “once it existed in secure and settled borders, accepted by all neighbors in an agreement underwritten by the UN Security Council.”
And the reaction of that august and dignified, mainly Israeli, audience to this sensible and actually very mildly stated suggestion? According to the J. Post, they “hissed.”
What a bunch of childish, self-absorbed little bully boys. Really. And anyone wants to think we should trust them with nuclear weapons, as well?

11 thoughts on “Nuclear proliferation developments”

  1. Helena
    The German government agrees with your position.
    This from Die Welt shows Iran urging Economic Warfare against the thieves in the West (chop their hands off) with the German Foreign Minister warning against the Militarisation of Thought while there still remains plenty of room for diplomatic measures.
    http://www.welt.de/data/2006/01/23/835357.html
    Rafsanjani in Teheran has urged people not to let the crisis spin out of control.
    I wonder if the President of the Republic has been influenced by reports in Mitterand’s Psychotherapist’s memoirs that Mrs Thatcher once threatened to Nuke the Argentinians during the Falklands War.
    People are starting to sound a bit worried.

  2. Chirac was threatening retaliation against potential attackers. The Iranians are threatening to attack Israel. There is a difference.

  3. Retaliation against potential attackers… H’mm, now there’s an interesting concept. How can one “retaliate” against attackers who are only potential, I wonder? Maybe the term you seek is “pre-emption” or perhaps “prevention”. Oh, those were the concepts that got us into the Iraq war mess, weren’t they?
    Nuclear weapons, my dear WW, are an extremely serious business. I’ve been to hiroshima, and I know. Those weapons they (we) used there were very primitive indeed by today’s standards, yet they killed 200,000 people. I really don’t understand why you want to cut Chirac any slack.

  4. How can one “retaliate” against attackers who are only potential, I wonder
    Not to defend Chirac’s remarks, but he was using the future conditional; ie if France were attacked the attackers would invite (“s’exposeraient à une réponse…”) He wasn’t recommending pre-emption of any kind.

  5. yes, particularly since it is well known that the leaders of Israel and France have both made it explicity clear that Iran should be wiped off the face of the map…that it is a myth that Iran suffered mass casualties in its war with Saddam…and that those Iranians who cannot trace their lineage to Babylon or Assyria should be exiled to Persian enclaves in Los Angeles, Paris and Stockholm.

  6. Helena,
    Thank you for your comments on the hypocracy of those nations that denounce others, i.e. Iran, for developping nuclear programs while at the same time flaunting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by embarking on programs of “upgrading” existing nuclear weapons. George Monbiot has a scary column in Tuesday’s Guardian in which he points to the often deceptive means both the British and the American governments employ to hide the real intent and purpose of such upgrades.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,,1693404,00.html
    “The(British)defence secretary explains that a new missile system is necessary because “some countries” have not been “complying with their obligations under the non-proliferation treaty”. In response, therefore, the UK will refuse to comply with its obligations under the non- proliferation treaty. This provides other countries with their justification for … well, you’ve got the general idea.”

  7. Helena
    Susan’s comment is quite revealing.
    I was explaining country risk in investment to someone recently, and took as an example, that if General Musharraf were to have an unfortunate accident, and the muslim radicals took over it might be like the Taliban with nuclear weapons.
    However I find Sir Michael Quinlan’s piece here quite educational. It is quite interesting to see that the Israeli Arrow 2 is presumed to work in a BMD context.
    http://www.iiss.org/showpage.php?pageID=78
    The thing to note is the description of a rational progress to an equilibrium in the region.

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