And you thought the war in Iraq was about weapons and armies? No, indeed not. Weapons and armies and such things in the physical world are the tools; but what is really happening in Iraq– as in any civil war, war of insurgency, or similar lengthy inter-group conflict– is primarily a battle of narratives. What each of the parties is seeking to do, basically, is find a way to organize the widest possible coalition of followers around their particular version of “the Truth.”
So what are the major narratives being fought over there? Here’s a first cut at describing the four biggest ones among them:
- The Bushists’ narrative (version 78.6, or so)
They would have everyone– Iraqis, the world, but most particularly the US citizenry– believe that what is “at stake” in Iraq is a broad battle between “moderates” (= the good guys) and “extremists” (= the bad guys.) Okay, I know this is extremely thin as an organizing concept. But it’s the best they can come up with after nearly four years of hard slogging inside Iraq, with a huge amount of attrition and/or turnover along the way among their top administrators there. Also, all their previous narratives proved quite useless. Remember “democrats vs. dead-enders” and all those earlier fizzlers?
These guys are tired. And it certainly shows.
Their most recent attempt at a version of the “moderates vs. extremists” narrative was designed explicitly to isolate Moqtada Sadr (= “extremist”). It relied, however, on a major logical and factual flaw. Since the attempt to isolate Moqtada relied on splitting the UIA, the broader Shiite alliance of which he is an important part, the Bushists needed to define their chosen tools within the UIA as “the moderates.” But Abdul-Aziz Hakim, his SCIRI party, and their associated Badr militia are far, far from being in any recognizeable way “moderate”. There is, indeed, considerable evidence that they are significantly more brutal (and also significantly more pro-Iranian) than the Sadrists…
Go figure.
Washington’s isolate-Moqtada plan was fairly definitively blocked by Ayatollah Sistani just before Christmas. Might the whole sad concept of the presently mooted “surge” be related to yet another attempt to revive it?
And then we have…
- The militant Sunni/Arabist narrative
This one– peddled furiously by many Sunni Arabs outside Iraq and some inside Iraq– describes the battle in Iraq as one of defending this eastern bulwark of the Arab (and Sunni) world against the looming power of the Shiites, all of whom are described in the more extreme versions of this narratives as somehow secretly either ethnically Persian or anyway controlled by Iran.
Badger recently had a great quote representing this view: something that Sunni Iraqi pol Admnan al-Dulaimi was quoted as saying at the Istanbul Conference, Dec. 13-14:
- “[There is a] Shiite, Safavid, Persian, Majousi [i.e., related to the Magi] threat originating in Iran and aiming to consume all of Iraq, and after that neighboring countries including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, by way of reviving the dream of a new Persian empire.”
Whew! All those four attributes coming together into a critical mass of pure threat there. Talk about rhetorical overkill. However, as As’ad Abou Khalil and many others have noted, this kind of reetoric is being very widely propagated by the Saudis and their media.
In some versions of this narrative, the Iranians are seen as having come together with not only the US but also the Israelis to attack core values and assets of the (Sunni) Arab nation in Iraq.
(Go figure.)
Another attribute of this narrative is that it systematically tries to deny the “authenticity” of most or all Shiite Iraqis by claiming that they are all, somehow, actually ethnic Iranians– not Arabs at all!– and therefore they don’t deserve to have their views as Iraqis taken seriously.
(I suppose a next step in pursuit of this move to marginalize Iraq’s many millions of, yes, ethnically Arab citizens of the Shiite faith from the national discourse would be to seek to expel them physically from the country. The Sunni militants are not strong enough to propose this yet, though of course they have ethnically cleansed many thousands of Arab-Iraqi Shiites from mixed neighborhoods; and some of them have maintained a horrendous campaign of pure, anti-civilian terror against Shiite Iraqi communities throughout the past 30 months or so, using car bombs, individual suicide bombers, truck bombs, etc.)
- The militant Shiite narrative
This one, too, has its more hardline propagators mainly outside Iraq, but also a number of propagators inside the country. It holds that the major threat to Iraq comes from the “Wahhabists”– a term that is used to describe either just the most militant of the Sunni activists or, in a more extremist version, just about all the Sunnis in Iraq.
Note that here, as with the use by Sunnis of terms like “Persian, Safavi, Majousi”, one clear intention is to deny the opponents’ “authenticity” as Iraqis, by pinning on them a label associated with an outside power. In this case, Saudi Arabia.
Some Shiite militants also use the terms “Al-Qaeda”, “Salafists”, or “neo-Baathists” as ways to deny the authenticity and legitimacy of Sunni Iraqis as Iraqis.
Here is a classic example of a writer who in September 2005 sought to delegitimize the (actually, not unreasonable) reservations that many Iraqi Sunni politicians were expressing at the time to the Iraqi constitution, by describing the these politicians as “Wahhabi” and “Salafist”. Note that the writer of this article is himself Iranian, not Iraqi at all!
- The Iraqi nationalist narrative
This narrative is harder to find represented in the western media than any of the three narratives listed above. (No surprise there.) It holds, as a fundamental tenet, that the continued US occupation is the root cause of Iraq’s current woes and therefore has to end; and that, while there are many grievances between different groups inside Iraq, these can be resolved among Iraqis themselves.
People who advocate the Iraqi nationalist view can be seen as differing on the legacy of Saddam’s rule. They may have some distrust of some or all of Iraq’s neighbors. They hold to a concept of “Iraqi-ness” that may or may not actively embrace the Kurdish roots of a large segment of Iraqis, but that attempts strenuously to maintain or build unity between ethnic-Arab Iraqis who are Sunnis and those who are Shiites, and between those who are more Islamist and those who are more secular (though the latter are a dwindling breed.)
A couple of examples of the Iraqi-nationalist narrative… The first comes from the Association of Muslim Scholars’ Harith al-Dhari, also speaking at that Istanbul conference. He was reported as saying there,
- There are both Shiites and Sunnis on the one side under a single banner, and on the other side, arrayed against them, is the Occupation along with its Iraqi agents, aiming at the realization of its colonialist aims.
The second is from the Sadrists’ Baha al-Araji, in the interview that Foreign Policy published recently:
- We have problems, unfortunately, with all of Iraq’s neighbors. Some are historical problems. Some are ethnic problems … [O]ur neighbors, the Arab countries that border us, are 100 percent Sunni. So they fear the situation in Iraq…
I don’t think Iran likes Iraq. Iran is the beneficiary of this current situation. Iran’s enemy is the United States, so Iran does everything in its power to fuel instability in the new Iraq so that Iran can remain strong and keep the United States distracted…
Note, with respect to Shiite proponents of the Iraqi-nationalist narrative, that Araji is not the only one who expresses some distrust of Iran… And some Iranians seem completely to reciprocate that level of distrust.
On January 2, the Tehran Times ran an intriguing piece of commentary. It was by Hassan Hanizadeh, who was the same person who authored that anti-Wahhabi diatribe I referred to above. On January 2, Hanizadeh criticized the Sadrists by name, describing them as acting as, effectively, dupes of hard-line Sunni politicians intent on splitting the UIA:
- The Al-Sadr Bloc’s boycott of parliament and cabinet sessions has not helped resolve Iraq’s problems and has even encouraged the Shias’ rivals, led by Hareth al-Zari, Adnan al-Dulaimi, and Saleh al-Mutlak, to gravitate toward the Al-Sadr Bloc in a strategic move meant to divide the UIA.
The three, who lead some of the hard-line Sunni groups, which also include Baathists connected to the former Iraqi regime, are trying to ignite a war between the country’s Shias and Sunnis and are receiving financial assistance from some Arab countries…
The fact that the Al-Sadr Bloc and the leaders of the Sunni minority are in consensus that a timetable should be set for the withdrawal of foreign troops put the two camps in a tactical alliance, but the veteran political leaders of the Shia majority repeatedly expressed concern over this unusual relationship.
Some of the Sunni groups, which see themselves as the main losers after the fall of Saddam Hussein, are covertly cooperating with the occupying forces and the leaders of neighboring Arab countries in efforts to eliminate the leaders of the Shia majority, weaken Maliki’s government, and spark a civil war…
There are some other notable features of this Hanizadeh op-ed, including that he mirrors the Bushist narrative regarding Iraqi politics in some significant ways! For example, when he says that the UIA is “led by Abdul-Aziz Hakim”, and when he seeks to demean and diminish Moqtada Sadr by referring to him dismissively as “a young cleric.”
Hanizadeh’s argument is also notable when he says it was the Sadrists who sought to break the UIA’s ranks (by going into an alliance with those Sunni trends), whereas what seemed to me to have happened was that it was the Bushists and Abdul-Aziz Hakim (joint darling of both the Bushists and the mullahs in Tehran) who were explicitly trying to break UIA unity by getting the UIA to repudiate Moqtada…
Interesting, huh?
I should send a quick hat-tip to Juan Cole for linking to that Hanizadeh piece. But I don’t think he gave it the attention or the context that it deserved.
We should also keep in mind about the UIA’s eminence grise, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, that though he– like some other members of the clerical class in Iraq, but unlike the vast majority of the country’s Shiite believers— is actually by ethnicity an Iranian, still, he has very significant religious, political, and philosophical differences with the mullahs in Teheran, and centrally over the concept of wilayat al-faqih. Yet another non-trivial wrinkle there.
Anyway, I just want to finish this post with a few quick observations.
(1) In the present situation in Iraq, the two main narratives that I see as competing for the hearts and minds of (Arab) Iraqis are not the two sectarian narratives described above, but rather, the Bushist narrative and the Iraqi-nationalist narrative.
The advocates of each of these two large competing narratives are currently fighting to manipulate the loyalties of the Iraqi supporters of both the sectarian narratives in the direction they want them to go.
In the case of the Iraqi nationalists they want and need to win to their own cause the loyalties of Iraqis who might currently be supporters of one or the other sectarian narrative.
In the case of the Bushists, they want to enlist as many Arab Iraqis as they can to their “moderates vs. extremists” narrative. But even the very dumbest Bushists must understand there is little likelihood of achieving a winning coalition in that way. So more than that, they are probably seeking to pump up both the two sectarian narratives, as a way of minimizing the support for the nationalist narrative, and then to let the proponents of the competing sectarianisms escalate their conflict against each other in a perpetuation of the classic divide-and-rule tactics Washington has been pursuing inside Iraq since April 2003.
(Although, as I have noted elsewhere, this is a very shortsighted thing to do, and will result in far higher risks for the widely dispersed US troops inside Iraq, whether Washington’s desire is for those troops to leave quickly or to stay in Iraq for a fuurther period.)
(2) This is far from the first time that a “battle of the narratives” of such broad and far-reaching proportions has been at issue during a bloody and very lethal battle in that region. Back in 1980 after Saddam launched his extremely aggressive and ill-starred invasion of Iran, there were huge questions about the loyalty to their respective national capitals of (a) the millions of ethnic-Arab Shiites of Iraq, and (b) the millions of ethnic-Arab Shiites of the south of Iran. But it was the citizenship that members of each of these groups had at that time won out over, in the case of the Iraqi Shiites, their sectarian sentiment, and in the case of the ethnic-Arab Iranians, their ethnic identity.
(3) A “battle of the narratives” is not won with tanks, aerial bombardments, or troop surges– though the arrival of additional large numbers of US troops might well end up tipping the balance in favor of the Iraqi nationalists. But basically, a battle of the narratives is won through effective political work.
(4) As noted here previously, the vast majority of the western MSM has ignored or systematically the Iraqi nationalist narrative. This is most likely through some combination of (a) their unfamiliarity with Iraqi politics, (b) their susceptibility to, and in many cases reliance on, the Bushists’ spin, and (c) intellectual laziness. Over the past year or so, Juan Cole has not been a particularly helpful guide to these matters.
(5) The behavior of the onlookers, and perhaps some officials, at Saddam’s hanging was extremely undignifed, and his trial blatantly unfair. But for many Sunni Arab commentators and US commentators now to pile onto Moqtada al-Sadr and blame him for everything that went on there is quite outrageous. (Also, the phsyical manner of the hanging itself was “executed” quite professinally, unlike in Nuremberg where the dying men twisted on their ropes for 20 minutes before they finally expired.)
Look, the whole trial proceeding was presided over at one scant remove by the Americans– and now they want to use this as a pretext to gin up self-righteous criticism of Moqtada Sadr??