Turkey conf live-blog #3

I left after Kalin for a press gaggle that he and Celik did. That was interesting. More later. Main takeaway: More details about the contacts that the Turkish foreign minister and Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak had prior to the sailing of the Mavi Marmara about its imminent sailing, and Kalin’s clear recollection that “We understood from Barak that they would be acting towards the boats very differently from the way they did.”
I missed most of a panel discussion involving former Rep. Robert Wexler, the anti-Tehran Iranian activist Karim Sadjadpour, and Turkish journo Cengiz Candar, moderated by Steven Cook.
Apparently Wexler gave a strong defense of Israel’s (naval-gazing) self-enquiry.
A questioner just referred to Wexler’s angry tone there.
Now Wexler is talking again.
Here he is:

    Let’s look at objective facts.
    Israel can’t maintain the blockade of Gaza on its own. Only because Egypt, a sovereign Arab nation, also maintains the siege of Gaza is the siege maintained.
    Israel didn’t simply maintain a blockade on Gaza when Gaza elected Hamas but did so when Hamas took an Israeli corporal Shalit.
    Hamas rejects the very peace process that America, Israel, and Turkey all support.

He is speaking in a very demagogic way– not answering the question but an anti-Hamas diatribe.
“Where’s the outrage against Hamas when they execute the supporters of Fateh?” etc.

Turkey conf live-blog #2

Ibrahim Kalin, speaking in effortless, US-accented English.
He’s talking about the need for a “process analysis” as opposed to just looking at momentary snapshots.
Excerpts from his words:
During Cold War, choices were very stark and dyadic. Now they are much more complex.
Turkey is acting in its own interests, for example regarding the PKK: This has strengthened our relations with many other countries including the US as well as neighbors like Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
Noted, like Celik, that Turkey’s outreach to Syria, which used to be criticized by US officials, has now proven to be valuable and hopes the same will be the case regarding its relationship with Iran…

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Turkey conf live-blog #1

First substantial speaker up is Omer Celik. He’s speaking in Turkish, very rapidly.
Translation:
I was asked as I came what is purpose of visit to DC. I said it is not to soften or harden anyone’s views but only to explain Turkey’s position.
As the person in AK Party who’s in charge of foreign policy, I want to talk abt recent events w/ Israel and UN vote on Iran sanctions.
First, the hardening of Isr-Turkey relns dates back to Israeli op agt Gaza.

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Live-blogging DC conference on Turkey

Kudos to Washington’s venerable Middle East Institute which now (under female leadership) seems to be shaking off the dust of the ages and is organizing numerous pretty good public events. Up today is a v. timely day-long conference on Turkey, featuring, among other speakers, Dr. Ibrahim Kalin (more Kalin here), an adviser to PM Erdogan, and Omer Celik, deputy VP of the ruling AK Party.
I’m here in the room, where the 200 seats are filling up rapidly. Planning to live-blog. But I haven’t done that for a while so let’s see how it goes. Anyway, check back.

The return of geography: Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia

I realize I probably haven’t put anything on the blog yet that tells my ever-waiting readership (!) that last week I was in Syria. Well, I was. I went as part of a quiet, non-governmental effort to find ways to improve our country’s currently troubled relations with Syria. More info later, as appropriate.
Anyway, I’ve just finished writing a piece for another publication about Syria’s current diplomatic situation. Y’all will get the link when it is published.
Last night, as I was figuring how to frame the piece, I thought really the most significant thing that has happened for Syria’s situation in recent years was last year’s rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. Along with the excellent rapprochement that Damascus has made with Turkey over the earlier 5-6 years, those two new relationships with significant Middle Eastern powers strengthen Syria’s position considerably, compared with where it was in the dark days of 2003-04 when so many American neocons were confidently predicting that “after Baghdad, Syria will be the next to fall to U.S. power.”
These new relationships also give Syrians a valuable counterweight to the power and influence of Iran. It’s not that anyone in the present Syrian government wants to abandon the ties with Tehran that have been so important to their regime’s survival over the past 30 years. But at least now they can balance those ties with these other new relationships with Turkey and Saudi Arabia…
So this morning, I Googled “Syria Saudi Arabia Turkey” and guess what came up? This fascinating news item from today’s Hurriyet, reporting that,

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Quietly charismatic Mavi Marmara survivor speaks out

Go to the website of Fakhoora.org and see this short video of Fakhoora director Farooq Burney describing his experiences aboard the Mavi Marmara during the raid.
Burney was on the boat to embody the solidarity that Fakhoora has with the besieged people of Gaza and also take 65 computers to Gaza for the use of students there, and perhaps “to establish a computer lab in one of the institutions in Gaza.”
He talks about having someone close to him shot by the Israelis during the raid– and his sense of helplessness at being unable to prevent him from bleeding to death. He also talks about the humiliations he suffered while in Israeli custody, and about how upsetting it was for his family, including his children, to be left so long in the dark about whether he had survived, or not.
This page on Fakhoora’s website tells us,

    Fakhoora.org is an international campaign which aims to secure the freedom to learn for Palestinian students in Gaza and the West Bank.
    Access to education is a basic human right, recognized by Article 26 of the UN’s Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Today, school children and university students in Gaza and the West Bank are not able to fully exercise their right to an education. During Operation Cast Lead, schools were bombed and destroyed. Many of those schools remain damaged or destroyed. And the current blockade deprives students and teachers of some of the basic necessities that no school can do without. It is an emotionally challenging environment in which to learn.
    … The campaign gets its name from a United Nations school in Gaza’s Jabaliya refugee camp that was the scene of an attack by Israeli tank shells on January 6, 2009. The attack resulted in at least 43 fatalities, including children, and 100 injuries. The school was being used as a shelter for those fleeing hostilities.

It sounds like a fabulous campaign.

Flotilla: Obama backs Israel’s self-‘investigation’

The White House yesterday expressed support for the Israeli government’s plan to launch its own self-‘investigation’ into the violent IDF commando raid in international waters that two weeks ago today killed eight Turkish citizens and one Turkish-US joint national, and wounded many tens more aid-bearing flotilla participants from dozens of countries around the world.
Washington rushed to express its support for a formula under which an all-Israeli body would conduct the investigation, aided by two “international” observers who would not have voting rights within the investigatory body (and whose access to all the documents it works with is by no means assured, either.)
The White House statement– which was distributed to officers of pro-Israeli organizations by the Office of VP Joe Biden but is not yet available on the main White House website– said in part,

    We believe that Israel, like any other nation, should be allowed to undertake an investigation into events that involve its national security. … [T]he structure and terms of reference of Israel’s proposed independent public commission can meet the standard of a prompt, impartial, credible, and transparent investigation. But we will not prejudge the process or its outcome, and will await the conduct and findings of the investigation before drawing further conclusions.
    While Israel should be afforded the time to complete its process, we expect Israel’s commission and military investigation will be carried out promptly.

In other words, Israel’s creation of this whitewash self-investigation meets the goal of the White House that it further postpone the day when the Obama administration feels it needs to do anything concrete about the May 31 incident, in which non-NATO member Israel attacked a peaceful convoy of boats and killed one US citizen and eight citizens of NATO ally Turkey…
The two international observers on the body include one Canadian and one UK (Northern Ireland) citizen. Interestingly, the Obamaites seemed to back away from the idea that having an American on the body would be a good idea.
Anyway, the Israeli-US plan on the investigation has already come in for some strong criticism, including from Turkey and Mahmoud Abbas. Further criticisms can be expected in the days ahead.

81 great questions from Avnery on the flotilla ”Inquiry’

Veteran peace activist Uri Avnery has compiled a great list of 81 questions that any credible Israeli commission of inquiry should fearlessly answer.
Don’t hold your breath that any of these questions actually will get asked– by any Israeli-dominated investigative body, such as the one the Obama administration has reportedly signed off on.
The flotilla killings: The whole world still needs answers.
See this Le Monde interview with Turkish president Abdullah Gul, and this Der Spiegel interview with flotilla raid survivor (and distinguished Swedish novelist) Henning Mankell.

Clumsy US disinfo on Saudi Arabia?

Several people have sent me a copy of this article in today’s London Times, in which journo Hugh Tomlinson breathlessly “reports” that,

    Saudi Arabia has conducted tests to stand down its air defences to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, The Times can reveal.

It’s crazy. The substance of this is intrinsically non-credible.
So what sources did Tomlinson mention? Two kinds (which might actually be one and the same source?):

    * “a US defence source in the area” and
    * “Sources in Saudi Arabia”

All these source (or all this one source) is/are un-named, and Tomlinson does nothing further to identify them. Naturally.
Just in case anyone might be inclined to take the report seriously, they might want to read this recent piece by the NYT’s David Sanger.
Sanger was trying to figure out what options the Obama administration might be considering the event of the almost-certain “failure” of the latest U.N. sanctions resolution to stop Iran from pursuing its nuclear technology program (routinely described in the western MSM as a nuclear weapons program.)
He writes,

    There is a Plan B — actually, a Plan B, C, and D — parts of which are already unfolding across the Persian Gulf. The administration does not talk about them much, at least publicly, but they include old-style military containment and an operation known informally at the C.I.A. as the Braindrain Project to lure away Iran’s nuclear talent. By all accounts, Mr. Obama has ramped up a Bush-era covert program to undermine Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure, and he has made quiet diplomatic use of Israel’s lurking threat to take military action if diplomacy and pressure fail.

Bingo. But hey, what can you expect from a Rupert Murdoch rag?

Flotilla: NYT criticizes Israel-US investigation plan

An editorial in today’s NYT criticizes the agreement that Washington and Israel reportedly reached a couple of days ago under which Israel would run the allegedly ‘international’ investigation into its own actions in the May 31 Mavi Marmara raid, while the US and the EU would have ‘observers’ on the investigatory panel.
The editorial says this:

    The international outcry over this episode is unlikely to subside until there is an “impartial, credible and transparent investigation” as called for by the United Nations Security Council. That means a full investigation — in both Israel and Turkey.
    Israel stubbornly keeps insisting that it can do the inquiry itself. Israeli news media on Friday said that the government planned to appoint an investigatory committee led by a former Supreme Court judge with American and European observers. Turkey’s government wants an international investigation — and insists ruptured relations with Israel will not improve without it. It has yet to acknowledge that its role needs to be part of it.
    A panel under the auspices of the so-called Middle East peace quartet — the United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations — would have a far better chance at delivering credible findings. Israeli and Turkish representation would have to be included.
    That is in Israel’s clear interest. And it is in Turkey’s clear interest. The Obama administration should be pressing both its allies to embrace the idea.

The editorial based its argument in good part on the claim that, while Israel has many questions to answer, “so does Turkey.” Yes, maybe. But it was not Turkey that attacked a peaceful ship in international waters, murdered at least nine of the civilian passengers and wounded many more, took all the passengers of the Mavi Marmara and five other boats hostage to Israel where many were mistreated and all had their personal possessions taken from them, etc.
Ah well. It is still good that the NYT is arguing against Israel being given a green light– by the US and the rest of the UN– to investigate itself.
The NYT’s editors do not, however, come straight out and make the case, which surely is an excellent one to be made, that no-one in their right minds should be expected to deem an Israeli-dominated ‘investigation’ of the Mavi Marmara raid to be in the least bit credible.
Aside from the inevitable credibility problems inherent in any plan for a self-investigation, the Israeli government has also grossly undermined its credibility over the past two weeks by, among other things, putting out clearly doctored media accounts of what happened aboard the ship (at least one of which it was subsequently forced to retract), and by confiscating/stealing all the electronic records that it could, that had been kept by flotilla participants of the events that had led up to the raid.
The fact of that act of robbery/confiscation means that both (1) The flotilla participants are strongly hampered in being able to present their own documentary evidence of what happened before and during the raid, and (2) The Israelis have now had 12 days to scrutinize and, where they want, alter those records; and we still see no sign that the records will be either returned to their rightful owners or surrendered to any impartial international body.
I argued here yesterday that Washington’s reported stance of giving support to Israel’s plan to establish its own ‘investigation’– and to give that Israeli body some apparent international cover by including US and EU ‘observers’ in its work– seemed quite crazy and actively harmful to our country’s true interests. In the international system, an Israeli-dominated ‘investigation’ of the flotilla murders will have zero credibility; and for the US to want to have any association with such a scheme will bring an absolute torrent of future problems for the US government.
But the Obama administration, with its eyes only on the November Congressional elections in the US, shows no understanding of the continuing global implications of its stance, at all. Just yesterday, an un-named White House official strongly denied an earlier report that it was considering supporting a U.N.-led investigation:

    The White House official said the administration continues to support “an Israeli-led investigation into the flotilla incident that is prompt, credible, impartial, and transparent.”

Well, an Israeli-led investigation that has these properties might be a fine thing. But no-one outside Washington DC and Israel has any reason to expect that the Israeli government would deliver such an investigation!
Another important aspect to the whole investigation issue is that the need for an investigation, “because we don’t yet know all the facts”, has frequently been cited by Obama administration officials as a reason to postpone issuing any firm U.S. judgment on the raid in its own name. Its function in Washington’s diplomacy is therefore, first and foremost, one of delaying any further U.S. action regarding the raid– in which, remember, Israeli commandos killed one U.S. citizen, beat and wounded a number of others, kidnapped around a dozen U.S. citizens, and stole their personal possessions.
For his part, Turkey’s PM, Rejep Tayyip Erdogan, has roundly rejected the idea of any Israeli-dominated investigation into the raid. He has called for a full-fledged UN investigation, and has stressed that it needs to complete its work within two months so all the issues arising from the raid can be dealt with in timely fashion. Many of the other governments whose citizens were assaulted and harmed in the raid are likely to join their voices to his.
The flotilla murders issue is definitely not going to go away as a continuing issue in international politics, however desperately Washington might wish it would do so. (But could someone please tell Iran’s Pres. Ahmedinejad that him sending two Iranian boats to try to break the blockade, as he apparently plans to do, is about the least helpful thing he can do right now?)
By comparison with that clear position, the NYT editors’ calls for a “Quartet”-headed investigation, with Israeli and Turkish representation, is still somewhat US-centric and diluted. (It’s not as if the US-led “Quartet” actually has any achievements or global credibility to its name, at this point.) But still, it is an excellent sign that even those traditionally strong supporters of Israel in the NYT editorial board are now saying that the Israeli-US proposal is inadequate.