10:02 Audience member Phil Elliot asked how the US’s economic woes will affect the country’s ability to be a peacemaker. McCain answered totally about the US’s ability to field an effective military.
When he ended (with a jab against Obama’s claimed lack of experience), Brokaw asked the same question again but again in terms of the US having military effectiveness.
Actually, Obama answered very effectively, including noting that McCain had been quite wrong on going into Iraq and noting the huge cost of that decision.
Brokaw asked a follow-up question about (military) “humanitarian intervention”, citing the example of DR-Congo. Obama answered it well, saying there will always be atrocities that the US can’t combat on its own and therefore it needs to have good relations with many others around the world.
A question about Pakistan… Obama says his previous thing about “not coddling Pakistan.”
Obama: “We will kill Bin Laden, we will crush Al-Qaeda, and that has to be our number one priority.”
On substance, McCain is answering this one better. “We need to get the support of the Pakistani government and go into Waziristan– where I’ve been– and win the support of the people there.”
Interesting little exchange about who’s less bellicose. McCain said he would be like Teddy Roosevelt: “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” Obama recalled McCain’s “Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran”, his threat to annihilate North Korea, and his pre-2003 eagerness to invade Iraq…
Author: Helena
Obama-McCain debate live-blogging, #1
9:40 Obama’s been doing very well explaining his tax policy proposals in a clear and compelling way.
The questions have virtually all been about the economy until now.
McCain’s been very unspecific and very accusatory.
The stage-managing of the event looks complex. They’re in a small circular pit with audience around two-thirds of it and Brokaw at a small table in front of them. The two candidates each has a sort of home-stool to sit on but also gets to walk around. McCain uses the space in a wooden way, jabbing his arm out and often speaking in a jerky, breathless way.
Obama looks relaxed and speaks slowly and thoughtfully. But perhaps, a little too slowly sometimes.
9:46 I just heard McCain extolling the virtues of nuclear power as being safe.
Obama just made a smart but very even-voiced jab at McCain as criticizing “Washington” for its inaction on the environment over the past 30 years, “But he doesn’t say he’s been there for 26 of them.”
Financiers: Where’s the remorse?
I don’t want to see bankers jumping out of windows. But I do want to see some of these alleged “Titans” of the western financial world expressing– and enacting– some real remorse to those of their fellow-citizens whom they’ve been exploiting for so long now and whose tax dollars they are now lining up to grab hold of.
The rapidly growing literature on the strong social value of remorse (e.g., the work of Pumla Gobod-Madikizela or other sources explored in the last chapter of my “Atrocities” book) makes clear the valuable role it plays as a gateway to social healing and thereby also to resolving the problems occasioned by the miscreants’ past deeds.
When a former miscreant credibly expresses remorse to those he has harmed, that signifies to those former victims that he:
- 1. Recognizes that their worth as human persons to be equal to his own,
2. Recognizes that his own previous actions have harmed these (equally valuable) other persons,
3. Expresses credible regret for that harm, and
4. Communicates a sincere desire to see it repaired.
To be even more credible, such remorse may well (and most likely, should) be accompanied by the miscreant engaging in the actual work of repairing the harm, i.e. participating in reparations of some kind.
Judged by this standard of the kind of remorse we might want to see being expressed by the former “Masters of the Universe” who have brought the western world’s financial system to its knees, yesterday’s performance by Richard Fuld, Chairman and CEO of the now-failed Lehman Brothers Bank, at the House Oversight and Government Affairs Committee fell far, far short.
The committee is conducting hearings into how the actions of the leaders of the financial world has ended up wrecking the west’s financial system. Today it has been the turn of AIG, the insurance behemoth that (unlike Lehman) did get bailed out by the Treasury weeks ago.
In yesterday’s hearing, committee chair Rep. Henry Waxman (D. CA) put up a slide showing how much Fuld has been earning in recent years. Scroll down here to see it.
It shows that in 2007, Fuld earned a “cash bonus” of $4.3 million, on top of his $900,000 “regular” salary. That was down from his all-time high cash bonus: $13.8 million, in 2005. It was also quite separate from his stock options of $40.3 million in 2007 (down from a high of $93.6 million in 2001.) But his stock options are probably not worth anything now.
The cash bonuses and base-salary payments he gets to keep.
These figures are obscene.
The people and institutions that either invested in or loaned money to Lehman will get very little of their money back.
For many of them, this will bring serious harm.
I saw no recognition from Fuld of the harms his actions have caused to others. Nor does he take any responsibility for decisions he made that led to Lehman’s crash. Nor does he offer to do anything to help repair the harms.
It’s as though for him, all the “little people” whom he defrauded don’t count at all.
The WaPo’s Annys Shin reported that
- Fuld told lawmakers he hasn’t been sleeping well at all.
“Not that anybody on this committee cares about this, but I wake up every single night thinking what I could have done different,” he said. “This is a pain that will stay with me for the rest of my life.”
But during more than an hour of questioning, Fuld did not admit any specific mistakes. He blamed investors looking to make money from a fall in Lehman’s share price for spreading false rumors that made it harder for Lehman to raise money. That, he said, created a liquidity problem and a crisis of confidence, leading to a run on the bank…
Lawmakers took the opportunity to exorcise taxpayer anger over executive pay, posting Fuld’s compensation since 2000, an estimated total of $484.8 million. Fuld later said it was closer to $350 million.
The panel also took issue with a decision last month by board members to pay three executives a total of $23.2 million for leaving, even as the firm was collapsing, according to committee documents.
Fuld defended Lehman’s pay practices, saying “the system worked” because 85 percent of his pay was in the form of stock, aligning him with shareholder interests.
How’s that again? The system worked?? The proof of that would be that the firm would still be in business, doing the useful work of helping provide financial backing for productive businesses in the real economy while giving a steady (even if sometimes small) return to its shareholders.
Earth to Richard Fuld: The system did not work!!!
Also, just because you got an extra payment in stock options, additional to the millions you took home in cash, that still didn’t “align your interests with those of the shareholders.” You got out of the mess with tens or hundreds of millions of dollars of past cash compensation payments squirreled away. They got out with nothing.
Anyway, the company wasn’t structured as a “partnership” between you and the shareholders. You were their employee, however many (now worthless) stock options you might have been given. As their employee you had a responsibility to safeguard their investment.
The “system”, including that whole quite rotten structure of executive compensation from which you benefitted, did not in any sense “work.”
The financial crisis– and the real-economy crisis that it has already started to cause– is very bad news for the Republicans, on whose watch the vast majority of this mess has occurred. And of course, John McCain must bear some personal responsibility for what has happened. He has been an ardent deregulator for many years; and before that, he showed his sleaziness through his involvement in the “fast money” S&L scandal of the 1980s.
Many Democratic leaders in congress also bear a portion of the blame, as did the Clinton administration in its day. Leading Democrats have taken huge amounts of money from the financial “industry” for far too long. So now those legislators are bobbing and weaving a bit to avoid getting stuck with too much of the blame. I hope that one other big change that’s enacted as next year’s congress and president continue dealing with this crisis is that– finally– they start to enact some serious, hard-hitting campaign finance reform.
Meanwhile, though, let’s continue demanding that these recently failed financiers start to show (and act upon) some real remorse in their communications with the public. Not just a thin form of “regret”, which could mean mainly that they “regret” the fact that they got caught. But a much thicker form of remorse. And a good readiness to engage in some real acts of reparation, too.
One commenter over on this post on Think Progress suggests today, regarding the amazingly lavishly pampered leaders of AIG, that “They should have their ‘homes’ turned into homeless shelters.” That might not be a wholly bad idea, though homeless shelters are not a great longterm solution to the anguish of homelessness.
But maybe those executives’ “homes”– all except the one-each that might actually be called a home with some validity– could be divided into condos at the executives’ expense and given away to foreclosee families by lottery?
The legal basis for such a plan? Well, regarding Lehman Brothers, Annys Shin notes that, “The FBI is investigating whether there was fraud at Lehman Brothers, and the Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into what Lehman disclosed about housing-related investments and how it valued them…. ”
So who knows what’s next for Richard Fuld and his former colleagues?
Google Reader highlight #2: Willem Buiter on the financial crisis
This is my second pick of current highlights from my Google Reader.
Buiter is the former chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, currently Professor of European Political Economy at LSE. This week, the Economist described him as “an honorary Brit.” (Not clear whether that was meant as a compliment?)
Anyway, I have found Buiter’s Maverecon blog, published by the Financial Times really helpful and informative in recent weeks. (Along with, I should say, Calculated Risk, a person with excellent judgment for what’s important in breaking financial news, and a good clear way of presenting it. They cover slightly different slices of the action: while CR looks more at breaking news most of Buiter’s posts are written with a broader, though still extremely timely, purview.)
So here’s what we have from Buiter yesterday and today: “Don’t worry: We can always lease Heathrow to the Russians”. It’s a short but I’d say classic post, which reads in its entirety:
- The government of Iceland is using the threat of a €4 bn loan from Russia in exchange for a 99-year lease on the airport at Keflavik – a former American air base – as leverage to obtain financial support from the West. This is high-stakes poker -not without risk to Iceland, if their bluff is called. I would have securitised the future revenues from hydro and geo-thermal power generation before bringing on the Red Army. It does show, however, that there may be more collateralisable assets around for governments to draw on that one might have thought. Good news for Chancellor Darling.
In this post, published 45 minutes earlier, Buiter bemoaned the inability of the finance ministers of “the North Atlantic region” to fashion a workable and coordinated response to the still unfolding crisis:
- Statements that “we shall do whatever it takes to safeguard the banking system of (fill in name of country)” don’t cut it any more. The banks with border-crossing activities in the US, the UK and continental Europe are now all at risk of failing. They are all cutting back drastically on their lending to the real economy. Official dithering is exacting a growing price, to be paid by tax payers and the future unemployed.
The European Union thus far has been an utter paper tiger. The agreement on a €30bn fund to help SMEs is almost worst than nothing, because it draws attention to what was not achieved. There has been no agreement to restrict beggar-thy-neigbour (and shoot-your-own-tax-payer-in the-foot) extensions of guarantees on bank liabilities. There has been no agreement on sharing rules for the fiscal burdens associated with recapitalisations of the 44 or so European financial institutions with significant border-crossing activities. There has been no decision so implement a full information sharing between national regulators and central banks (including the ECB) for these same border-crossing financial institutions. There has been no agreement on common principles for national TARPs, to prevent large-scale border-crossing dumping of toxic assets in whatever jurisdiction offers the best terms.
The UK authorities are limping after the widening and deepening crisis, falling steadily further behind…
His preferred policy, for the UK, is a partial nationalization of the banks, which he argues,
- would transform the high and growing risk of private bank insolvency for a low and manageable risk of UK sovereign insolvency. The UK government is capable of the domestic fiscal transfer required to back up the partial nationalisation. With the right policies, UK Ltd (households and businesses) would be able to generate the increased external primary surpluses necessary to effect the external transfer required to make a partial nationalisation credible. It would be a good trade for the UK tax payer and for all those trying to make a living in this country.
He also notes that the UK is in a better position to make some form of a bank-nationalization move work than is Iceland, which has just implemented one: “The UK has a smaller internationally exposed financial sector relative to its GDP than Iceland (UK gross external assets and liabilities are around 450 percent of annual GDP rather than just under 900 percent) and its tax base is much larger and much diversified than Iceland’s.”
This post, published late last night London time, was titled “A Special Resolution Regime for banks must put tax payers before shareholders and bank creditors” It starts out with these very sobering words:
- It’s reasonable to assume that the banking system in the North Atlantic region is insolvent and would be bankrupt but for the reality of recent government bailouts and the expectation of future government bailouts. Certainly, for the system as a whole, the marked-to-market value of its assets is way below that of its liabilities. I strongly suspect that even the hold-to-maturity value of its assets is well below that of its liabilities. Although the system as a whole is broke, there are no doubt individual banks that are solvent. We may not, however be certain as to which banks are solvent and which banks are not.
I also take it is given that it is desirable – essential even – to preserve the core of the banking system and to keep it operating without interruption, because it fulfills an essential role in the intermediation of funds between financial surplus units and financial deficit units – a role for which no substitute can be found or created in the short and medium term. The bulk of the banking system therefore needs to be bailed out…
The main remaining question then becomes who will pay for the bail out, the tax payers or the existing creditors of the banks (including the shareholders and other providers of equity). I have a strong preference for putting much of the cost of a bailout on the existing creditors. This is in part for reasons of equity and fairness: the existing creditors made bad investments/loans; they ought to pay for their failures. They earned a risk premium while the going was good. They ought to eat the risk when it materialises. It is also for incentive reasons. Future lending to banks and future purchases of bank obligations will be undertaken with a better appreciation of the credit risk involved. Another massive over-expansion of the banking sector will be less likely…
This sounds like excellent good sense to me.
What I like about Buiter is (1) The fact that he evidently speaks from such broad experience as a special kind of banking practitioner, and (2) That he also speaks from what feels like a very broad and humanistic understanding of economics and finance.
I also like his tagging the problem economies as “North Atlantic” economies… H’mmm, where have a heard that term used in a different context in recent years?
It is very notable to me that the leaders and “Titans” in all these ultra-free-market systems who for years now have been shucking off (or actively subverting) regulation by governments and lobbying hard to destroy mechanisms of social security, welfare safety nets, etc, are now making a mad rush for the public feeding trough themselves. The terms on which we, the rest of the citizenry, allow them to continue to play any kind of a role in our countries’ economies should be determined by us, not them.
Which is what Buiter was broadly arguing there….
I am not as sure as he is, though, that it is “essential” to preserve “the core of the banking system.” Well, it all depends what we mean by “core.” Some form of banking system, yes. But a banking system that encourages speculation, usury, and the development of arcane financial instruments and “derivatives” that grow literally like a cancer on the body of the real economy of goods and productive (non-financial) services? I don’t think so.
Google Reader highlight #1: Registan
I thought JWN readers might want to check out some of the more interesting things I’ve been following on my Google Reader recently. So GR highlight #1 today is Registan, sub-title: “Central Asia News– All Central Asia, All The Time.”
Special kudos to their contributor Joshua Foust, who brings a wise and well-informed eye to this crucial region.
Up on Registan today (though posted yesterday) we have this brilliant take-down of a recent Council on Foreign Relations study group report on Pakistan. It’s titled “Wishing for Ponies”.
Foust writes:
- I want a pony, too. Well, I don’t—the Ironman suit would suffice. But you get what I mean. This kind of report is the essence of Yglesias’ Green Lantern Theory of Geopolitics: if only we try hard enough, we can achieve perfect U.S. goals and never face any trade-offs! Let’s put these goals up side-by-side, and see how they really stack up…
(Of course, as the current economic crisis continues to play out, the CFR will become considerably more marginal to the real world of global politics and diplomacy.)
Foust’s colleague Michael Hancock has a broad round-up of reports of recent meteorological and political events in Kyrgyzstan.
And Foust penned a brief but very thought-provoking critique of this recent op-ed on Afghanistan by Nathaniel Fick and Vikram Singh. Fick and Singh are affiliated with the generally liberal-hawkish “Center for a New American Security.”
Foust’s post is titled “How COIN Generalists Fail Afghanistan.” He writes that Fick and Sin gh’s op-ed
- reveals some interesting thinking from establishment counterinsurgency theorists [that] I think helps to explain why we seem to be understanding Afghanistan so poorly.
It’s not that the op-ed is necessarily bad or deficient in any way (though it is in many), but rather where they make leaps of imagination…
He concludes his more detailed critique with this:
- unless there was a serious word-count limitation, they don’t seem to understand the fundamental forces driving conflict in Afghanistan. It isn’t government legitimacy, and it’s not even necessarily corruption (though anti-corruption is a highly effective COIN tool): the problem, the big problem they did not mention once, is security.
Oh sure, like all Americans writing about Afghanistan, they mentioned the 280 soldiers we’ve lost this year. They didn’t mention the (approximately) 720 policemen, or the (approximately) 680 ANA troops Afghanistan has lost (we don’t really know how many died because as best I can tell there is no official monitoring system for local counterinsurgent losses). While losing 280 soldiers is indeed tragic, many thousand civilians have died this year—and a not-insignificant number of those have been at U.S. or ISAF hands. The biggest reason more villages and villagers don’t support Karzai or the U.S. is fear, plain and simple. And Singh and Fick don’t seem to consider that an issue because, it seems, to them, and to far too many Big Thinkers in DC, it’s all about us—and not them. The “them” is the critical missing piece of the fight, and until we start to learn how we can help “them,” we won’t win.
Anyway, Registan: definitely worth putting on your feed reader if you’re interested in Afghanistan and the rest of Central Asia.
And that $25 billion for Detroit…
In all the publicity around the $700 billion bailout for wall Street that became law last Friday, the fact that Congress last Tuesday also appropriated $25 billion to prop up ailing US-based carmakers passed almost unnoticed in the US.
But it was not unnoticed overseas. (A hat-tip, indeed, goes to Frank al-Irlandi, who drew this to our attention earlier today.)
Of course, this bailout considerably distorts the global “free market” in cars– not that any such thing ever actually existed. Non-US carmakers, including those who operate production lines within the US, are reportedly furious. The FT reported on Saturday that German car-makers are already lobbying to be allowed access to these funds.
The FT reporters there note that European and Asian banks were successful in their efforts to gain access to the federal bailout loans being made available to the US-based (but often foreign owned or foreign funded) banks.
Regarding access to the car industry loans, they write:
- While the aid package does not specifically exclude foreign carmakers, one European executive said it was “clearly a bail-out” of the Detroit-based industry.
The loans would help carmakers modernise their plants to build more environmentally friendly vehicles. They are available only to plants that are more than 20 years old, excluding all but a handful of foreign-owned facilities.
Stefan Jacoby, the US head of Volkswagen, said lobbying had already started, with Tennessee and Virginia – the two states where the German carmaker has a US presence – also taking part.
The Department of Energy has yet to flesh out the legislation with detailed regulations in a process that will take at least six and maybe as long as 18 months.
I wrote last night that as the current crisis continues we have to guard against “any signs of surging economic nationalism, nationalist greed, jingoism, or a desire for the supposed solaces of a ‘cleansing’ act of war.”
Obviously in these tough times there will be some significant degree of economic nationalism, as we have already seen. Indeed, the WTO in its current form may well be one of the major casualties of the crisis as it evolves. However, I still believe that the crisis can be dealt with and overcome by the world’s nations in ways other than war. To the three reasons for relative optimism that I listed yesterday I would certainly add the fact that today, 63 years after 1945, all the world’s major nations have long experience of working together in a rules-based system that addresses issues in the economic, political, and security arenas.
Also, after all the experience of warfare the world has had since 1939– from Hiroshima to Iraq– no responsible leader could realistically today think that going to war will “solve” any actual problems.
We are not in the 1930s. Reason, calm, and a sense of fairness can prevail.
But it depends on us all having informed and fair-minded publics, as well as wise leaders…
Taleban/Talabani: There’s a difference?
WaPo columnist E.J. Dionne gets paid a hefty salary and gets a lot of public respect for his claimed ability to opine knowledgeably about current affairs. But on Friday, he and the other two participants in Diane Rehm’s much lauded, nationally syndicated radio talk show revealed how little they really understand about the areas of America’s two major current wars.
The incident went like this:
- 1. A caller from someplace in the Midwest called in and asked something like, “How come during the Palin-Biden debate last night nobody picked up on the fact that Palin referred approvingly to the idea of talks with both Maliki and the Talebani?” Like Palin, the caller mis-spoke the Iraqi PM’s name as “Maleeki.” Unlike Palin, he put that crucial definite article before the word “Talebani”, showing that he had not understood the distinction between Mr. Jalal Talabani, the President of Iraq, and “the” Taleban (no terminal “i”), widely recognized in the US as the “bad guy”, now resurging, pro-Qaeda, former rulers of Afghanistan.
2. Diane Rehm made no attempt to correct the caller’s misunderstanding but passed the question directly on to E.J. Dionne. E.J. also did not correct the caller’s mistake but said something like, “Goodness, yes, that was a terrible mistake Sarah Palin made.”
3. Neither of the other, supposedly knowledgeable panelists, Jim Angle of Faux News and Jeanne Cummings of The Politico, intervened at all to suggest that the caller had misunderstood what Palin was talking about.
I mention this terrible gaffe, committed by a total of four supposedly well-informed Washington DC “insiders”, because it underlines the extent to which those well-regarded members of the U.S. commentatoriat don’t actually have any real understanding of the matters they opine about with such self-confidence.
It’s quite understandable that a regular citizen, calling in from who knows where, might have failed to make the distinction between Mr. Jalal Talabani, who has been President of Iraq for 3-4 years and as the long-time head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) has been a regular feature in US newspapers since long before 2003, and the Taleban. But it strikes me as inexcusable that Rehm, Dionne, Angle, and Cummings all failed to notice that that the caller had confused those two significant names with each other.
Btw, I note that Sarah Palin referred to “Talabani” quite correctly.
The financial crisis and world power shifts
The US financial system’s current woes have accelerated the decline in American power in the world that has already been underway for several years now. This is so for a number of reasons:
- 1. The crisis has revealed the degree to which the US government and other American institutions have become indebted to non-US creditors, and therefore the antecedent (pre-crisis) reduction in the US’s ability to wield economic power in the world, as well as its current and ongoing reliance on the goodwill of non-Americans if the effects of the crisis are to be minimized.
2. It has revealed the weakness and dysfunctionality of a whole series of American institutions, ways of doing business, and habits of mind that previously were thought to be successful and worthy of emulation. (Among these are the extensive de-regulation of the financial markets that has occurred in recent years; the rise of the myth of the financial “Masters of the Universe”, barely accountable to shareholders or anyone else; a glaring dissonance between personal incomes and social utility; etc.)
3. Finally, the way the elected leaders in Washington have handled the crisis to date has shown a president who is now beyond even “lame-duck” status– “dead duck”, perhaps?– a congressional leadership that has had its mindset formed far more by political donors from among the mega-bucks high-flyers than by the constituents whom they are supposed to represent, and the lack of any discernible voices speaking credibly about what it means to be “a national community” in America today and stressing the mutual obligations that in any democratic country all citizens reciprocally owe to each other.
These failings matter. They matter, firstly, because the weakest and most vulnerable among our fellow-citizens– and among non-citizens– will be those who are hurt the hardest by the crisis in the bricks-and-mortar economy that still lies ahead.
They matter, too, in a different way, because our country has until now been the world’s sole “Uberpower” (to Josef Joffe’s vivid and evocative term.) So the contagion from our woes has already started to infect several other parts of the world– most particularly, Europe. Also, this financial crisis and the way it has been handled further assault the already-battered “brand” or reputation of the US around the world, making the descent of the US from Uberpowerdom much steeper and more rapid than it would otherwise have been.
I welcome this shift. Uberpowerdom was never either moral or sustainable and the US and its rich-world allies have inflicted grievous harm on the low-income world over the past 15-plus years. However, all such large-scale power shifts are unsettling and carry the potential for dislocation and violence. The fact that the present power shift is accompanied and accelerated by a financial crisis that will almost certainly morph into a much broader economic downturn within and outside the US makes such reactions more likely… We all need to be very vigilant in the coming period to watch for, and try to tamp down, any signs of surging economic nationalism, nationalist greed, jingoism, or a desire for the supposed solaces of a “cleansing” act of war.
There are, however, several reasons for hope at the present turning point– most of them coming with a distinctively Chinese accent:
- 1. The whole world is more densely and complexly intertwined at the economic level than ever before. This has meant, yes, that the contagion from Wall Street’s woes has spread elsewhere. But it also means there really is a high degree of inter-dependence among the world’s major power centers. Some people write about the high prospect of “wars” for resources. There are, and will continue to be, contests for resources among the major powers, yes. But I see these being waged overwhelmingly through non-military means. Washington’s experience of war in Iraq– a war in which access to oil was certainly one key factor– showed the limited utility of the weapon of outright war. And thus far, the major non-Iraqi beneficiary of post-2003 Iraq’s oil agreements has been China, not the US!
At a broader level, though, the economies of China, Russia, India, or other “rising” powers” are too tightly tied to those of the US and other trading partners for the rising powers to want to break those ties through outright war against the fading Uberpower and its allies.
2. China may anyway be able to escape the worst ravages of the economic crisis to come. Although the People’s Bank of China and the China Investment Corporation have lost some money through (as it turned out) unwise investments in US entities, still Beijing has been successful in (a) keeping most of its economy protected from too many internally generated financial woes– precisely because of the under-development (in US terms) of its domestic financial structures, and (b) winning at least some protection from Washington for the $400 billion investments in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which remain, I think, by far the largest of its non-T-bill investments in the west.
If China is indeed able to keep its economy significantly insulated from the downturn in the west, then its continued economic growth may–even at lower growth rates than the hard-to-sustain 10%-plus rates we’ve seen recently– end up being a considerable continuing engine for the world economy and may even help lift the battered “west” out of its doldrums over the years ahead.
I see that today, Premier Wen Jiabao described the country’s financial market as “safe and stable with generally adequate liquidity.” A statement from the central bank welcomed the US House of Representative’s passage of the Wall Street bailout Friday noting that “China and the US share common interests in … a stable financial market.” And Wen said that “Maintaining ‘steady and fast’ growth is the largest contribution China can make to help the world overcome the current financial crisis stemming from the United States.”
3. It is also worth noting here, once again, that China’s rise onto the world scene in the past 15 years has occurred in a quite unprecedented way. China has not emerged as a world power through force of arms outside its own borders or through arms-racing. (Its nuclear arsenal is, at an estimated 200 warheads, many times smaller than those of the US or Russia. It truly looks like a “minimum deterrent” force.) It has emerged onto the world scene instead by buying into the existing rules system as embodied in the United Nations and its institutions and the institutions of global economic governance– all of these institutions having been established by the US in the post-1945 period. The peaceful, rules-respecting manner of China’s rise is a cause for considerable reassurance for everyone who will be (is being) affected by it.
Here are a few of the other things I’ve found interesting to read recently, on topics related to the above:
Bloomberg told us that today the German government agreed to a $68 billion bailout for Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, a commercial property lender. Here is some more commentary from Calculated Risk, who says the underlying problem may not be as bad as it seems: “this sounds more like a liquidity issue rather than a solvency problem.”
Here is a piece by the FT’s Wolfgang Munchau looking at some o0f the tricky economic governance issues, at this time of crisis, for a Europe that is still only partly coordinated on the relevant matters. (The crisis might have a deep affect on Europe’s governance questions– and that could happen in either direction, I think.)
Here is a piece of geopolitical analysis from the very pro-US French commentator Dominique Moisi. It is titled “A global downturn in the power of the west” and says:
- First, the shock reinforces the relative decline of the US and the passage from a unipolar to a multipolar world. Whoever is its next president, America will not only have to face more diverse and complex challenges but will have fewer means with which to confront them. The interaction between the infectious greed of its financial class and its politicians’ dereliction of duty has impoverished the country. The torch of history seems to be passing from west to east. It is true that China and India are also affected by the financial turmoil; less so Japan, a country whose financial conservatism is the product of bitter experience 20 years ago. But to paraphrase French President François Mitterrand: growth is in the east and debts are in the west. Furthermore, fear is in the west and hope is in the east, so we are equipped in very different ways to face this crisis.
The meltdown has also revealed the depth of an identity crisis, not just in America but also in Europe. Nationalisation may have been the initial American response to the crisis. But it is nationalism that is the main obstacle facing Europe. The temptation of the “to each his own” mindset was present in Europe in the good times, but has become irresistible in bad times. Nicolas Sarkozy, French president of the European Union, may be mounting a brave and gallant fight to produce a “European answer”, but his activism is not sufficient to hide deep divisions among member states.
And here is an assessment from China’s Xinhua titled “Impact of global financial turmoil on China seen as limited.” It includes this:
- “We feel China’s financial system and its banks are, to the chaos developed in the U.S. and other parts of the world, relatively shielded from those problems,” said senior economist Louis Kuijs at the World Bank Beijing Office.
He told Xinhua one reason was that Chinese banks were less involved in the highly sophisticated financial transactions and products.
“They were lucky not to be so-called developed, because this (financial crisis) is very much a developed market crisis.”
A few Chinese lenders were subject to losses from investing in foreign assets involved in the Wall Street crisis, but the scope and scale were small and the banks had been prepared for possible risks, Liu Fushou, deputy director of the Banking Supervision Department I of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, told China Central Television (CCTV).
Chinese banks had only invested 3.7 percent of their total wealth in overseas assets that were prone to international tumult, CCTV reported…
Kuijs… expected an impact on China’s banks coming via the country’s real economy, as exports, investment and plans of companies would be affected by the troubled world economy and in turn increase pressure on bad loans.
Wang Xiaoguang, a Beijing-based macro-economist, said the growing risks on global markets would render a negative effect on China in the short term but provided an opportunity for the country to fuel its growth more on domestic demand than on external needs.
He urged while China, the world’s fastest expanding economy, should be more cautious of fully opening up its capital account, the government should continue its market reforms on the domestic financial industry without being intimidated.
Chinese banks had strengthened the management of their investments in overseas liquid assets and taken a more prudent strategy in foreign currency-denominated investment products since the U.S.-born financial crisis broke out, CCTV reported.
Well, I expect that things are not quite as rosy in China’s economy as this reporting makes it sound. Here’s a recent FT assessment– registration required.
US west coast events in October
If you live in or near Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, or Santa Barbara, then I’m heading your way this month. Most of these events are book discussions, open to the public, about my book Re-engage! America and the World After Bush.
Here’s the schedule. We haven’t put in all the times and details yet. But there is probably enough information here for you to be able to Google the institutions involved– and my name– and find out what you need.
As we get the detailed info, we’ll be posting it on this web-page.
The help of JWN readers and fans in publicizing these events would be much appreciated!
- Oct. 11: Noon-time book discussion and potluck hosted by the Orange County (CA) Friends Meeting.
- Oct. 13: Events at Redlands University, Redlands, CA (details t.b.a.)
- Oct. 14: Noon-time event at Riverside Community College in Riverside, CA.
- Oct. 14: Evening reception and book talk hosted by the Inland Southern California World Affairs Council at the Mission Inn in Riverside, CA.
- Oct. 15: 11 a.m. book talk at California State University, Long Beach, cohosted by the Center for Peace and Social Justice, the Center for International Education, and the International Studies Department.
- Oct. 15: 4p.m. book talk at UCLA’s Von Grunebaum Center for Middle East Studies, West Los Angeles, CA.
- Oct. 16: 12:15 – 1:30 p.m. reading at the Evergreen Library, Evergreen State University, in Olympia, WA.
- Oct. 16: 4 p.m. get-together with participants in the GRuB program, Olympia, WA.
- Oct. 16: 7 p.m. Public discussion and book signing at the University of Puget Sound, near Tacoma, WA.
- Oct. 17: Speaking to an international affairs class at Univ. of Puget Sound, Tacoma, WA.
- Oct. 18: 1:00 p.m. Meeting with interfaith peace strategists, Berkeley, CA.
- Oct. 22: Meeting with international affairs class at Santa Barbara City College, Santa Barbara, CA.
- Oct. 22: 4-6 p.m. Discussion of recent Middle East events, hosted by the Center for Middle East Studies, UC-Santa Barbara.
- Oct. 23: Possible event at the Orfalea Center for Global Studies, UC-Santa Barbara.
- Oct. 25: 8 a.m.- 12:30 p.m. Featured speaker at the UN Day celebration held by the Santa Barbara Coalition for Global Dialogue, Santa Barbara, CA.
Wall St. bailout passes, military budget bulge is next
The House of Representatives passed the Wall Street bailout bill this afternoon. So since the Senate passed it earlier, it will now shortly become enacted into law. (Update: The President signed it and it is now law.)
A $700 billion bailout for Wall Street. Wow. I still don’t know the details of the changes made in the text since Monday, when the House voted against it.
I think $700 billion is ways too much federal funding to be appropriating in such a hurry. It happened because of the fear and pressure inculcated by the blackmail note that Paulson and Bernanke delivered two weeks ago. I have seen proposals that involved smaller amounts being pumped into the financial-sector bailout right now, allowing time for a much deeper reform of the regulatory system and a more far-reaching and better considered plan to support distressed citizens to be crafted over the next few months… I thought those plans looked considerably preferable. But too many congressional leaders are hand-in-glove with the bankers for the community-services people to get much of a look-in.
$700 billion is $2,333 for each woman, man, and child in the country. Add that amount onto our now-over-TEN-TRILLION national debt.
But we should remember that each year, in recent years, Congress has been appropriating just under that same amount of money, in order to keep our bloated military fed, deployed, and fighting.
Bloomberg’s Tony Capaccio reported yesterday that,
- The U.S. military wants an increase of $57 billion in fiscal 2010, about 13.5 percent more than this year’s budget of $514.3 billion, according to the Pentagon’s outgoing comptroller.
The White House hasn’t approved the request and Pentagon officials will make a strong case for it, Tina Jonas said.
Some of the increase reflects a determination to include in the base budget some costs that have been funded through emergency legislation, Jonas said in an interview.
The expense of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has been funded this way, even as many lawmakers, including Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, complained these requests include other spending, mask the military’s true cost and complicate their budgeting process.
(HT: Noah Schachtman.)
So that will be a DOD budget request of $571.3 billion for FY2010.
Capaccio writes,
- Defense spending, adjusted for inflation and not counting the cost of the wars, has increased about 43 percent since fiscal 2000. The proposed 2010 increase reverses a plan released in February that projected base budgets to be flat or slightly down.
“There is an effort under way to see if we can move away from” supplemental spending measures and rely “increasingly on base budgets to fund these conflicts,” Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said.
“We are going to be involved in persistent conflict for some time to come; that’s the reality of the world we live in and we need to budget for that,” he said during a press conference Sept. 24.
The basic defense budget Congress approved for fiscal 2009, which started yesterday, is about $514.3 billion.
This is all crazy. What “persistent conflict” is Morrell talking about? Iraq? Afghanistan? God forbid, Iran?
In Iraq, we need to get all our troops out as fast as it can be done “responsibly”– that is without having them shot at as they leave. There are various plans for how that can be done in a time period of anything between about four months and a year. Obama is still nowhere near calling for total withdrawal. But if, as I hope, one of his first acts is to take the whole question of Iraq back to the Security Council in a very open-ended way, then the multi-party negotiations that ensue there may well result in a plan for a US troop withdrawal that is total and relatively speedy– and more important still, for the establishment of an intra-Iraqi and regional political context within which that can occur in the best way possible.
Regarding Afghanistan, the knowledgeable British Ambassador there has now reportedly told his French counterpart that the war is unwinnable using military means, and support for the US-led military effort continues to dwindle among many NATO “allies”. (E.g. Canada and Australia.)
Regarding Iran: No! No! No! Attacking that country would truly be catastrophic.
The budgetary facts of life– as well as all the other facts of international life today– surely tell us as Americans that it’s time to radically reduce the military footprint we are now carving onto the world.
The Wall Street bailout has, in more than one sense, now “passed.” These mammoth(and oh so destructive) military budgets will come back and bite us again and again each year until our leaders figure out there’s a better way for our country to interact with the rest of the world, and meet the security needs of everyone concerned, including ourselves, if we place serious reliance on means other than military means to do so.
“Persistent conflict” will bring us only “persistent insecurity” and further hemorrhaging of our nation’s wealth.