Issandr’s reporting and analysis, now that he’s back in Garden City from his brief stay in Tunis, has been extraordinary. He is The Man!
Earlier today:
- We have army and republican guard units in central Cairo, but I am not sure what the current military chain of command is. Last night Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Sami Enan flew back from Washington, it’s not clear whether his role is the same. As expected, coup-proofing measures are in place.
The hyper-caution and concern of the Americans was evident in the statements last night. They are potential kingmakers but appear terrified of acting before having a better understanding of the situation on the ground. I thought Mubarak’s speech was in large part directed at them, touching on all State’s and White House’s talking points: freedom of expression but responsibility not to use violence, making still uncertain concessions. At this point there will be a natural tension among Egyptians between those who are terrified (my middle class Egyptian neighbors are panicking) and those who are angry Mubarak is still there. More protests expected later today, situation may turn violent again. We just don’t know at this point, and having just experienced the uncertainty of post-revolutionary moments in Tunisia, I expect the situation and public mood will be extremely volatile, changing hour to hour between the desire to restore order and the realization that they may be tantalizingly close to the regime change they were clamoring for.
I love his observation that the Obama administration “appear[s] terrified of acting before having a better understanding of the situation on the ground.” Perhaps they would have had more self-confidence about their ability to assess the current situation in Egypt if successive U.S. administrations since 1993 had not, as I noted here yesterday, intentionally and ideologically blinded themselves by excluding from appointment to high office anyone who had shown him- or herself capable of understanding the complex political and social dynamics of the Arab world.
Issandr is also completely right to allude to the “class” aspects of the uprising. Egypt has HUGE economic disparities among its citizens– much greater than Tunisia, Jordan, or any other Arab country, I think. Plus, very deeply entrenched habits of upper-class disdain for working people. In any situation of breakdown of law and order, the long marginalized “mob” always threatens to intervene. I reported on it during the bread riots of January 1977. Some Mubarakist diehards may try to organize strands of the mob to pursue the kind of “delugist” (as in, apres moi le deluge), scorched-earth policy that we saw some of Ben Ali’s Repub Guard trying to organize in Tunis. And indeed, Jonathan Wright was reporting from Cairo back on Thursday that the “baltagiyeh” thugs frequently used by the govt in the past to beat up demonstrators were being given some visible support by elements of the security forces in some corners of town.
However, the MB and most of the other political forces seem very aware of the risk of the uprising getting hijacked by a “mob” (organized or spontaneous) in this way; and from the beginning there have been thousands of informal “stewards” of the movement publicly and continuously urging “calm and good morals”.
Here was Issandr’s report from later today:
- A lot of reports of looting and attacks on civilians by mobs. The Carrefour supermarket in Maadi is burning and looters have been shot by the army. Tonight might be dangerous in areas.
Again, that being said, the vast, vast majority of protestors are peaceful people, mostly middle class, and they are showing great solidarity. People are still defending the Egyptian Museum. Volunteers are cleaning the streets and helping fireman. There is a great sense of civic duty out there, and great sadness at the looting and crime (which is being mostly blamed on police and baltaguia).
And here was the excellent reporter Jonathan Wright, also reporting from downtown Cairo today:
- I concur with Issandr that the spirit of solidarity and camaraderie was extraordinary. People shared everything — water, cigarettes, onions (for tear gas) and information. Largely there was also an amazing discipline and restraint. Whenever violence against public property looked imminent or people were about to throw rocks, others would chant ‘silmiya, silmiya’ (peaceful, peaceful) or ‘No to violence’. I know there has been some looting here and there but in some eight hours on the street yesterday I saw none, despite ample opportunities. The bravery of those who have been on the frontlines has also been extraordinary and I hope they one day they receive the credit they are due. The youngsters really are a very diverse crowd but yesterday evening, on a street corner in the eery halflight, I overheard a well-informed debate between a group of some seven or eight over who should replace Mubarak. Two of them favoured Mohamed ElBaradei as a transitional leader, but the others were less sympathetic. The most assertive man in the crowd said ElBaradei was part of the establishment and the country needed ‘new blood’.
Who is Ayman Nour?
في نفس الإطار، نقلت الجزيرة عن مصدر صحفي بدمنهور قوله إن من وصفهم بالبلطجية يقومون بتهديد المواطنين بالأسلحة قرب أقسام السلطة، ويقومون بأعمال نهب وسلب.
ومن جهته قال شاهد عيان للجزيرة نت إن مستشفى ومدارس ببولاق الدكرور في القاهرة تعرضت لهجوم مسلح من قبل مجهولين، مضيفا أن ذلك يخلق رعبا كبيرا لدى المواطنين
http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/1F7D84AC-D692-446E-B1B5-F4DC9044874C.htm?GoogleStatID=1
Some news reported that the public caught armed grope then they discovered they are from the secret police service?
The Museum in Cairo attacked report said but here is no missing items???
Looks we have same Donald Rumsfeld’s scenarios in Iraq?
No Twitter uprising
http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/no-twitter-uprising-1.754034
Walk like an Egyptian!
‘new blood’, yeah i agree. although elbaradei would be a million times better than suleiman.
is it just interim before an election is the question.
elbaradei?
He is opportunistic figure, I don’t think he have any think to give and lead the nation for new dimensions.
i agree Salah, i was responding to what helena wrote
The most assertive man in the crowd said ElBaradei was part of the establishment and the country needed ‘new blood’.
so i agree he is part of the establishment and the country needs new blood. i just don’t put him in the same category as suleiman. it’s not like elbaradei has a history of renditions and torturing people. different kettle of fish altogether.
FYI
1. US calls it ‘democracy’:
‘The US State Department has been working feverishly behind the scenes to influence the transition to another US-friendly client. Mubarak has already appointed two vice presidents who have been approved by Washington. Both have good relations with Israel.’
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27382.html
2.’only democracy in middle east’ defends diktator…fears democracy in egypt
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162838.html
3.This appeared on the Angry Arab website (although there’s no way to verify the information):
“A source from within the Presidential Guard has claimed to my friends in Cairo that the army intends to end the protests on Sunday, by any means necessary even if it meant violence and bloodshed. Junta goons are causing chaos in Cairo to claim an unstable situation which will extend until Saturday. Then under the guise of bringing back order, they will “crush them with any amount of force needed!”. The sources are unsure of the American role but believe the Americans will go with it.”
FYI
1. US calls it ‘democracy’:
‘The US State Department has been working feverishly behind the scenes to influence the transition to another US-friendly client. Mubarak has already appointed two vice presidents who have been approved by Washington. Both have good relations with Israel.’
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27382.html
2.’only democracy in middle east’ defends diktator…fears democracy in egypt
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162838.html
3.This appeared on the Angry Arab website (although there’s no way to verify the information):
“A source from within the Presidential Guard has claimed to my friends in Cairo that the army intends to end the protests on Sunday, by any means necessary even if it meant violence and bloodshed. Junta goons are causing chaos in Cairo to claim an unstable situation which will extend until Saturday. Then under the guise of bringing back order, they will “crush them with any amount of force needed!”. The sources are unsure of the American role but believe the Americans will go with it.”
The US State Dept. should look up Marin Indyk for advice. No kidding, his opinions on Fareed Zakaria were completely different from his usual drivel. He in essence said that the US was “behind the curve” re Egypt and that Mubarak should go at the earliest,that he is “dead man walking” and much more in the same vein. Has he been hit by lightning? A Biblical moment on the road to Damascus?
And then there was this ghastly Tony Bliar. He looks and sounds like the walking dead. There he was, in Jerusalem, channeling Israel’s FM Lieberman and calling for “managed change” in Egypt. Yeah, “managed change”, managed by Israel and USA is what he means. Why is the Quartet paying this zombie a salary to spout such nonsense?
Helena,
I’m going to state a premise: The US and most European countries would prefer democracies to dictatorships in Egypt and the Middle East, they would also prefer stable governments to unstable ones. Once we accept this premise Obama’s actions make perfect sense. Unfortunately Mubarak has so marginalized any opposition groups that support democracy that it would be very hard for them to form a government, especially on such short a time frame. So Obama’s fears (and I suspect most European governments) that the MB will take over, whether through an election or due to a power vacuum if Mubarak is forced out. That this is not some brilliant insight on my part is obvious, everyone knows this.
So your criticism of Obama for not having advisors “capable of understanding the complex political and social dynamics of the Arab world” makes no sense. Would they have “crystal balls” to foresee how events are going to play out? No they wouldn’t.
It is possible for two equally informed persons to come to different conclusions about politics. It’s not like a principle of physics where there is some ultimate truth or fact. I would also not mistake a photo op with reality. I would suspect that there are in fact many more people advising Obama than in that photo. As Dennis Ross points out in his book “The Missing Peace”, the first George Bush sought out differing opinions maybe Obama does too.