‘Sensitive’ developments in Saudi Arabia? Succession-related?

Steve Clemons wrote on his blog Saturday that Dennis Ross was due to arrive in Saudi Arabia today on a big (and possibly hastily scheduled?) trip today.
He added that the Kingdom’s ambassador to the US, Adel Jubair, was due to hurry to Riyadh to help prepare King Abdullah for the Ross meetings.
Clemons also wrote:

    A source in the White House has shared with me that there is a lot underway right now with Saudi Arabia — and things are “sensitive.” I have no idea what is sensitive–

He then suggested quite a few items on the regional diplomatic agenda that might be “sensitive.’
I would say “sensitive” could well be some big development in the Kingdom’s slowly unfolding succession struggle.
To recap: Abdullah is 86. His half-brother Crown Prince Sultan is 82 and in very poor health– reportedly in a hospital in New York. When Abdullah traveled to Doha for the Arab summit at the end of the month, he appointed Sultan’s full brother, the “sprightly”, 75-year-old Prince Nayef, to be “second deputy prime minister”. First deputy PM is always, in this sui generis system, the Crown Prince. Previously the position of 2-DPM has been the stepping stone for successive sons of long-deceased patriarch King Abdul-Aziz to become later, 1-DPM (i.e. Crown prince), and later King.
When Nayef got the 2-DPM appointment, the well-informed Saudi expert Greg Gause wrote this about the development and about Nayef.
Bottom line: No non-prince ever really understands princely politics inside Saudi Arabia; but Nayef is extremely conservative on social issues and reform issues.
Early this month, the Guardian’s Middle East editor, Ian Black, had this article about Saudi succession issues.
He wrote there:

    the technical-sounding news about Nayef’s new job was something of a bombshell because it implied he was next in line for the throne.
    Taking into account the advanced ages of both Abdullah and Sultan, he could be sitting on it sooner rather than later.
    Experts point out that this is not certain. Formally, the choice is down to a secretive body called the Allegiance council, set up in 2006 and made up of the most prominent members of the royal family (all the sons or grandsons of the late King Abdulaziz, or Ibn Saud, the founder of the kingdom), who vote to appoint crown princes.
    Gregory Gause, of the University of Vermont, calls this a “wild card” in the succession process.
    Other Saudi-watchers predict that Nayef will eventually take over.
    “The question is still open but, most probably, Nayef will be king,” Mai Yamani, a London-based Saudi political analyst, said. “He is too powerful to be ignored.”
    Nayef’s claim to fame is more than 30 years of service as the interior minister.
    He organised the attack that ended the traumatic siege of the Grand Mosque in Mecca 1979, and has led the fight against al-Qaida since the 9/11 attacks (having first blamed Israel’s Mossad and denied that any Saudis were involved).
    Brute force has been combined with a sophisticated rehabilitation programme to coax repentant “deviants” or jihadis back into the fold.
    With his son, Prince Mohammed, as the deputy minister, Nayef runs a classic and powerful Saudi fiefdom.
    He is also a social conservative who declared, days before his appointment, that there was no need for either elections or for female members of the advisory Shura council.
    Nayef rarely travels overseas, and is one of the few Saudi princes never to have visited Washington…

Anyway, at a time when the Saudis may well be dealing with some extremely sensitive succession-related issues, I imagine the presence of the extremely pro-Israeli Ross might be somewhat unwelcome.
Of course, there is a lot to discuss with the Saudis on the foreign policy agenda– including the collapse in Pakistan, where they are huge players, and the ever-simmering Palestine Question. But those two issues each have their own US special envoys, not Ross. (Steve Clemons wrote in that blog post that Palestine-Israeli envoy George Mitchell is also expected in Saudi Arabia this week.)
Oh, I see Xinhua is reporting about Dennis’s trip that he’ll also be going to Egypt. (As well as the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar.)
Egypt?? That’s not part of the weird region of “South-west Asia” that is supposed to be Ross’s bailiwick. I wonder what all this is truly about?

5 thoughts on “‘Sensitive’ developments in Saudi Arabia? Succession-related?”

  1. Ross going to SA to chose the next head of state?
    Ya Allah! Ya Rasool!
    What level of degradation have we descended to. Noah Feldman writes the new Iraqi constitution. Uncle Sam steps in to choose the next king of UAE. Ross is gonna choose the next whore mongering king of SA. I suggest Avigdor Lieberman swear in the new king on a Torah Scroll. Maybe he can give him a good kick in the arse while he is at it, being a bouncer and all. This would be a good time for Ahmadinejad to strike and install Hassan Nasrullah as King. I’d be much happier with him than any of these goof balls currently in the line up.

  2. I imagine the presence of the extremely pro-Israeli Ross might be somewhat unwelcome.
    Above statement is very very laughable …..
    Saudi regime were and a long time US very close and supportive friend in ME have nothing to do for interests of their nation interests and Arab/Islamic interests in the region taken in account 1991 war 2003 war.. as you admitting strong Israeli booby inside US working hard for complete support of Israel ….so Ross and other guys who visited Saudis have some work to do..
    I suggest you should find some thing different related to pro-Israeli Ross …..
    Btw, H. Kissinger before was visited Saudis in routinely how Ross be with HK in regards to Israel did he were not welcomed in the “fanatic” kingdom before?
    Recreantly Kissinger said,
    “Depopulation should be the highest priority of foreign policy towards the third world, because the US economy will require large and increasing amounts of minerals from abroad, especially from less developed countries.”

  3. Btw, hop Roos bring with him “Swine flu ” to get ride of the rutted fanatical Saudi monarchy..in shaallah

  4. “Oh, I see Xinhua is reporting about Dennis’s trip that he’ll also be going to Egypt. (As well as the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar.)
    Egypt?? That’s not part of the weird region of “South-west Asia” that is supposed to be Ross’s bailiwick. I wonder what all this is truly about?”
    Maybe something to do with ….
    Netanyahu forthcomig visit to Washington …
    Abbas forthcoming visit to Wshington …
    Omar Sulieman’s coochy coochy with Lieberman, Netanyahu and Barak in Jerusalem last week ..
    Sulieman’s new proposal to Hamas re new arrangements for PA government ..
    The date for Hamas response being set at May 16, two days before Netanyahu is in Washington …
    Obama’s ostentious bow and scrape to Abdullah at the G20 …
    And the reason why Obama and Clinton would send an extremely pro-Israeli envoy who would be “unwelcome” in Rihadh? Well, obviously, despite all this activity, Obama Billary wants everything to fail! So poor innocent Hamas can be blamed again!

  5. Let’s look at the American experience. Although the United States is supposedly Saudi Arabia’s closest ally, until this day Saudi Arabia has never provided the US with details on the militant Islamic group that took over the Mecca mosque in November 1979. It is too embarrassing for Saudi Arabia to admit it cannot account for its subjects.

    Almost seven years after 11 September 2001, Saudi Arabia still has not provided a detailed explanation how 15 of its subjects ended up on the hijacked planes. The question remains: who inside Saudi Arabia recruited and vetted them? We’re left with speculating that it was a network operating in Saudi Arabia’s mosques, presumably led by a radical cleric who has never been named, let alone brought to justice.

    Another mystery is the connection between Omar Bayoumi, a Saudi defence official in San Diego, and two of the 11 September hijackers. There has been no explanation from the US or from Saudi Arabia over what Bayoumi was doing in the US or why the Saudi ambassador’s wife regularly sent him cheques. The ambassador at the time was Bandar bin Sultan, the man at the centre of the BAE corruption scandal.

    Putting off the Saudi accounting will ensure that one day we will have to face a revolution in that country which will make Ayatollah Khomeini’s revolution in Iran look tame.

    Robert Baer worked for the CIA in the Middle East for many years.
    The Independent, Sunday, 13 April 2008

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