This morning the time-expired PA president, Mahmoud Abbas of Fateh, called for the establishment of a Palestinian national unity government. The political endgame of Israel’s 22-Day War against Gaza has begun in earnest on the Palestinian side.
(On the Israeli side, the whole war can be understood as an internal political game, with the “end” of that game being focused on the general election of February 10.)
All wars are about politics: Clausewitz 101. In Israel’s 22-Day War against Gaza, one major war goal was– as Olmert and others repeatedly said– to “change the situation” regarding the politics of Gaza and the rest of Palestine. That was, to change it in a radically anti-Hamas and probably pro-Fateh way.
Remember that ever since Hamas’s victory in the January 2006 parliamentary elections, Israel and its Bush administration backers have waged a strongly anti-Hamas campaign, including maintaining the brutal siege of Gaza, arming and training Fateh militias and police in order to set them against Hamas, attempting (but failing to bring off) a coup against Hamas in Gaza in 2007, etc, etc.
The 22-Day War was a continuation of that anti-Hamas campaign.
The IDF’s violent and damaging rampage against Gaza did not, however, succeed in either crushing Hamas or forcing it to surrender. But it did considerably weaken the political situation of Mahoud Abbas and his Fateh colleagues– both within the Palestinian public and among the broader Arab and Muslim publics.
So that is the importance of Abbas’s terse call for a Palestinian national unity government.
Last night, elected Hamas PM Ismail Hanniyeh declared the outcome of the war a “victory” for the Palestinian people. He added that this victory would be,
- a springboard towards the restoration of national unity and the launch of internal dialog in order to reach genuine and comprehensive national reconciliation.
So both major Palestinian parties are now expressing their support for, apparently, a speedy reconciliation between them. This is excellent, even though the terms of the reconciliation remain to be worked out.
The last time the two sides attempted national reconciliation it was through the (Saudi-sponsored) Mecca Agreement of February 2007. Under that agreement, Haniyeh was the PM but the crucial Foreign Affairs portfolio was given to pro-Fateh independent Ziad Abu Amr, and there was a clear understanding that Hamas would encourage the Abbas-Abu Amr team to negotiate the very best possible peace deal with Israel that should then be submitted to a Palestinian national referendum.
It was that agreement that was ripped apart by Fateh’s Washington-instigated coup attempt in Gaza just four months later.
After foiling the coup attempt, the Gaza-based Haniyeh then established his own, Hamas-dominated PA government in Gaza while Abbas formed a rival, US-supported PA government in the West Bank and resumed his participation in the chronically unending “peace” negotiations with Israel.
Abbas’s term as elected PA president ran out on January 9, so there are now considerable questions about the legitimacy of his claim to “represent” Palestinians.
Hamas, now relatively strengthened by its survival of Israel’s assault on Gaza, now looks as though it is inclined to throw the badly weakened Abbas a political lifeline. (This would parallel the policies that Hizbullah, in Lebanon, pursued toward Lebanese PM Fouad Siniora in the aftermath of the– politically very similar– Israeli assault on that country in 2006.) Hamas may well now allow Abbas to “front” for a unified Palestinian participation in all the big diplomacy that lies ahead, while Hamas can focus more of its energies on the much-needed tasks of physical and social reconstruction in Palestine.
The constitutional situation within the PA is badly complicated by the fact that Israel has held in prison since 2007 either all or nearly all of the two dozen pro-Hamas parliamentarians, elected in January 2006, who were resident in the West Bank. That includes Parliament Speaker Aziz Dweik.
It strikes me that a first demand for the Palestinian national unity government– one that democrats around the world should support unconditionally– is that Israel should immediately release all the elected Palestinian parliamentarians whom it now holds captive. (Possibly, their release could be part of a broader detainee-release program that would also involve Israel’s Hamas-held POW, Gilad Shalit.)
Meanwhile, as noted above, the political endgame of the war on the Israeli side will be continuing until February 10, and quite possibly after that, during the cumbersome coalition-forming process that follows all elections in Israel. The Likud party has been chafing in opposition in Israel as Kadima and Labour have led this highly popular (in Israel) war. Immediately after the ceasefire started, its leaders quite predictably started criticizing the Kadima-Labour team for “not having gone far enough, and not having finished the job.”
It’s not clear yet what effect this pressure from Likud will have on the stability of the– tenuous, un-negotiated, and parallel– brace of ceasefires that went into operation yesterday. But I fear it can’t be a good one.
What is clear to me is that almost-President Obama should, as an early order of business very soon after his inauguration tomorrow, start laying out a specifically American vision of the urgency of securing a final peace between Israel and all its neighbors, along with some of the principles on which this peace should be based. They should include the folloowing:
- — Land for peace, and the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war;
— Security for all the people of the region, including both Israelis and Palestinians;
— A complete end to the use of force between Israel and its neighbors, with the establishment of robust and accountable mechanisms that can verify that aggressive actions are not being prepared;
— Jerusalem to be shared as a focal point for respect, coexistence, and dialogue among all the world’s nations and religions…
Obama should, ideally, lay out these ideas in a public speech that he personally gives on the subject considerably before February 10, so that the strength of this inspiring new US president’s commitment to this vision will be clear to Israeli voters before they go to the polls.
(Previously, I’d expressed some support for Naomi Chazan’s argument that for the US to try to do something to “influence” Israel’s voters on February 10 could well end up back-firing. Now, however, in light of the urgency of the Gaza crisis and its worldwide repurcussions, I think Obama really needs to try to do this. Every action or gesture he takes that can strengthen the hand of the pro-peace forces in Israel and the rest of the region is very urgently needed.)
Politics and diplomacy: These are what this war has been all about. Now let’s see the Palestinians, the Arabs, and the US all at least get their own houses in order. As for the Israelis– whose deep bellophilia has shocked much of the world over the past three weeks– let’s just hope that they have time to reflect, in the three weeks ahead, on the proposition that war, truly, is not the answer to their problems.
Their country’s war against Gaza might have made many of them “feel good” over the past three weeks. But at what cost, at what cost? Certainly, it has not made the prospects for longterm good relations with their Palestinian neighbors any easier, at all.
Compelling argument, re. the linkage between political context and war. Yet on the Israeli side, I’m still struggling to comprehend the nature of Israeli targeting. And how do Israeli political calculations explain the conscious targeting of civilians (the “iron fist” & collective punishment as admitted by Friedman and excoriated by Mearsheimer — see sidebar) How does it account for the repeated strikes on Gaza schools, mosques, UN operated facilities and buildings housing the few journalists in Gaza?
Maybe it doesn’t, unless it fits into the horror that one Israeli faction would prefer such “education” (iron fist) whereas another would favor more active full frg — forced regime change.
The guardian had a compelling article on the subject on Israel’s stratgegy of “scholasticide.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/10/gaza-schools
The current Chronicle of Higher Education (in the US) asks the appropriate question of US higher ed — “Where’s the outrage?”
http://chronicle.com/temp/email2.php?id=tRdHbmfT8KssC5zxwTdq6qjDjHTv33wm
News reports from France state that some 230 international lawyers are intent on bringing Israel before the Hague court………….
230 int’l lawyers taking Israel to the Hague
19/01/2009 01:00:00 PM GMT E-mail to friend (AFP)
Around 230 international lawyers are set to file a lawsuit at the international Criminal Court against Israeli war crimes in Gaza.
A French lawyer working on the lawsuit, Jill Devier made the announcement at a Sunday night protest in Paris against the Israeli atrocities in the Gaza Strip.
More than 50 international lawyers and jurists are working on a dossier, which alleges that Israel has committed crimes against humanity in Gaza. The dossier would be then taken to the International Criminal Court at the Hague.
The move follows a three-week Israeli offensive against the besieged region of Gaza, which claimed 1,300 lives including more tahn 411 children and wounded around 6000 others.
The lawyers’ decision backed by international jurists is a legal response to the Israel’s crimes against humanity, Devier added.
The lawsuit inquires the ICC to assess Israel’s atrocities against the people of Gaza as war crime under the 1949 Geneva Convention, the French lawyer noted.
“Based on the 1949 Geneva Convention collective punishment, offensive against civilians, disproportionate use of weapons, rise of civilian killings and pounding non-military locations are considered war crimes,” Devier continued.
The Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip has provoked worldwide condemnation of Tel Aviv, which has been accused widely of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The International Criminal Court said in a statement on Wednesday that it lacks jurisdiction to investigate possible Israeli war crimes committed in Gaza.
The ICC said that the “court’s jurisdiction is limited to war crimes, crimes against humanity and the crime of genocide committed on the territory of, or by a national of a state party while Israel is not a member state.
Even though Israel does not recognize the International Court, the ICC can prosecute the Israeli officials in the countries of their second citizenship, the French lawyer concluded.
A complete end to the use of force between Israel and its neighbours, with the establishment of robust and accountable mechanisms
Helena, this takes us to Saudi King Abdullah peace offer in 2002 for peace plan in ME…….
As you may recall and others Israeli refused that plane very fast without discussing it at all.
So this take us here to more real case is it Israelis really interesting of discussions with her neighbours of long lasting peace with the establishment of robust and accountable mechanisms?
The answer as far most ME and others know Israel tactics as you painted very clearly “The political endgame” but there are many games Israel did and have to do for her optimal goal of peace that build on surrenders terms to her all its neighbours to her wish..
How long term “political endgame” will be and there will be more round of “political endgame” in region unless some thing happen that your country stop supporting this terrorist and rough state and the international community and UN punish this rough state by imposing sanctions her as what they done to Iran, Iraq, Sudan and Hamas……and brings those who committed war crimes in 33day war or in this 22days war according to UN agencies who speaks now what like Gaza war crimes there is enough of evidences and prove for her crimes during her “political endgame” let call for sanction and war crimes for this state.
Helena before calling for long lasting peace with criminals, justices should be severed first and then Helena let’s talk about long lasting peace.
The prospects for unity may indeed be improved, but it is unclear how Abbas can figure in any future unity regime. Fatah’s collaboration with Israel has surely reached the point where it (at least that part of it led by Abbas) cannot be seen as part of the resistance any longer.
And how do Israeli political calculations explain the conscious targeting of civilians (the “iron fist” & collective punishment……How does it account for the repeated strikes on Gaza schools, mosques, UN operated facilities and buildings housing the few journalists in Gaza?
Scott H., I hope you not attacking the massager instead of the massage again here. Don’t start your personal attack instead quietly discussing what in this massage.
But what US done in Iraq was very similar to what Israelis doing in Gaza.
Did you know that your US forces destroyed drinking water tanks, public petrol stations in districts and schools and the most famous one the al-Amiriya bomb Public Shelter in 1991 were 408 women and children were hiding from the war, when a US bunker buster bomb smashes through the roof. Moments later a “smart” phosphor bombs “Holocaustic” all of them inside that shelter. I done go further what other destructions done in highways, bridges and water dames also Grain farmland that US Air forces continue for 13 years to throw flairs to burn the grains farmland in north Iraq just near the harvest time asked the Iraqi in north will tell you their stories. Scott H. I believe you know how to reach Iraqi today to get the answers for whats happen in hose black days.
This in 1991 when Iraqis lived for 4months in complete darkness because US destroyed all the power station and power networks around Iraq when it was the best and the only advanced RING Power network in the region, even those HT towers and lines destroyed with new Tech/tactics by using Steel Mesh thrown by US fighter/Airplanes.
And more “Tragic” and Sad” stories that you feel in 2003 have more and more unprecedented distraction of human lives and services.
So I cannot find any answer for your struggle to digest Israeli actions here while your country has done it many times on Iraq and with 25 millions of Iraqis.
We hear a lot of talk about “Palestinian unity” but of course those who use this phrase really mean nothing of the sort They have no interest in a strong, united Palestinian front which can coherently fight the occupation. What they really mean is that the elected leaders of the Palestinian people – Hamas – should voluntarily give up power in order to ‘share’ it with their defeated opponents – the Fatah quislings. Of course, this is precisely what Hams did in the Makkah accords, showing a pragmatism and magnanimity rarely seen in politics, but even that was not enough for Israel and the US, who attempted a coup to oust Hamas from Gaza. That failed. The latest war can be seen to have been a brutal repeat of that failed strategy, and ended up achieving the same (non) result. So really, ‘unity’ has nothing to do with it, the goal – as always – is the complete submission of the Palestinian resistance. It will not happen. Now, rahter than seek a fake ‘unity’ said resistance would be far better off exposing the traitors in their midst not htat htey have not already been exposed.