As US officials deeply understand, there is considerable diplomatic kudos and power that attaches to being the ones that control (and elbow all others out of) key strands of Middle East peace-brokering.
So in 1989 it was the Saudis who brokered and hosted the intra-Lebanese negotiations that resulted in the “Ta’ef Accord,” named after the Kingdom’s summer capital.
The Ta’ef Accord had a lot of good elements in it. But over the years the Saudis became more and more identified as partisan actors within the Lebanese political scene.
So tomorrow, the relevant Lebanese and Arab parties will be heading to Doha, the capital of Qatar, for the latest round of intra-Lebanese negotiations, which could well be the most productive since, um, Taef nineteen years ago.
The Arab League delegation which was in Beirut today (Thursday) was headed by the Qatari prime minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani. A significant commitment of national prestige there. Notable too: none of the Arab states who are directly involved in sponsoring different movements in Lebanon was represented on this particular delegation: No Saudi Arabia, no Egypt, no Syria. Well, Egypt was sort of there, in the person of the indefatigable Amr Musa, who was formerly Egypt’s FM and has now been sec-gen of the Arab League for many years.
What the AL delegation did in Beirut was, basically, sign off on the steps the Lebanese themselves had already taken. Namely, after PM Siniora realized that he could not rely on the support of either the Lebanese army or the US navy, he hurried to reverse the provocative steps his government took ten days ago against Hizbullah’s defensive capabilities; and Hizbullah in turn finally said it would be delighted to negotiate all the tricky constitutional questions that have held up the naming of a new president for the past six months.
Hence, the “pilgrimage” to Qatar tomorrow, where those matters will be discussed.
Qatar seems like an interesting place. It hosts both a huge contingent of the US naval/military power in the region– and Al-Jazeera, a t.v. empire that, while it isn’t anywhere close to being as anti-US as some Americans believe, does nonetheless have a voice that is independent of the pro-US orthodoxy proclaimed by, e.g., the big American networks, the BBC, or Saudi media like Al-Arabiyah. Qatar is a Wahhabi state– that has always jealously guarded its independence from Saudi Arabia. Also, for Wahhabists, its rulers seem strangely entrepreneurial. (Maybe that judgment just reveals my ignorance about the nature of Wahhabism. I’m not sure.)
Anyway, the fact that the Saudis have been so totally sidelined both by the collapse of the street/popular power of their proteges within Lebanon, and by their sidelining from the levers of the AL’s Lebanon diplomacy, is extremely interesting, and has broader significance for the region as a whole.
Update, 10:45 p.m.:
The L.A. Times’s Borzou Daragahi blogs glowingly from Beirut:
- Sheik Hamad also said: “Everyone knows that there is no winner in this.”
Except for maybe the sheik himself, who emerged as a diplomatic rock star.
He put on a heck of a performance.
I guess it was my understanding that the Lebanese parties had concluded their basic deal before the AL delegation reached Beirut. Borzou quotes Karim Makdissi, who teaches political science at AUB as saying, “The lesson to be drawn is that the notion of an international community… imposing itself cannot work unless the real situation on the ground allows it.”
Someone send that bit of basic wisdom to GWB?