George Bush’s general approach to dealing with the problems of Iraq and Afghanistan– as to the many other rapidly mounting challenges that confront Washington both globally and domestically– has been best summed up in this short animated cartoon published on April 11 by the WaPo’s extremely gifted Ann Telnaes. (Check out some of her other animations there, too.)
Bottom line: At this point, facing these omnipresent challenges, Bush is working simply to minimize the amount of damage they cause to him, and to presumed Republican nominee John McCain, in the time remaining till the November 4 election. And he is doing this, even if it quite predictably (and predictedly) results in building up much greater challenges for whoever it is that succeeds him next January.
But what if Bush’s attempt to postpone the eruption of full-blown crises until after Nov. 4– and preferably, from his perspective, until after January 20, 2009– fails, and these crises start erupting within the next six months?
This might well happen. Regarding many issues, including the domestic US economy and the Palestine question. I know that for the people directly concerned, their situations are already in extreme crisis. But I am talking here about the potential of these crises to become full-blown challenges to the Bush administration’s attempt to hold onto Washington’s power to “control” events in very distant parts of the world.
Today, it is the (functionally linked) crises the US faces in Iraq and Afghanistan that seem likely to mount most speedily to this point.
The functional link between these two crises is, of course, the force-level constraint and the trade-offs that exist between the two theaters in terms of the US military’s force planning. (One notable distinction between the US’s bid for global hegemony over the past 15 years and the maintenance by Britain, France, and other European powers of their globe-circling “empires” in earlier eras is that in the case of those European empires, the vast majority of the cannon-fodder required to police the distant colonies was pulled from the pauperized indigenous peoples of other colonies. The US, by contrast, has no power to compel citizens of other countries to fight its wars for it, and has shown little ability to persuade them to do so, either. Hence, it is the US that in both Iraq and Afghanistan has done the vast majority of the paying to raise the fighting forces, and the fighting and the dying there. Unlike when, for example, it was the British Army that got majorly caught short in Iraq in WWI– and it was Indian troops who did most of the dying there.)
Now, US force levels are stretched to the limit. The “surge” in Iraq was supposed to be temporary, but has turned out not to be. A week ago, when the Green Zone in Baghdad came under sustained mortar fire, the US and its Iraqi Security Force proxies tried to dig into, take, and control the whole of the southern third of Sadr City, in an attempt to deny the mortar-firers the proximity they needed to be able to hit the GZ. That involved a massive attempt at quadrillaging the southern end of Sadr City, an area that is home to 2.5 million human souls.
(I should note that Badger, over at Missing Links, is quite right to castigate all those US commentators on Iraqi affairs who did not sharply criticize the anti-humane quality of this US-led assault on Sadr City.)
Anyway, the US-led attempt to prevent the mortaring of the GZ was spectacularly shown to have failed yesterday and today, when a dust-storm prevented the US from flying the aircraft used to spot launchers, and the mortaring of the GZ resumed again.
It seems from that account by the WaPo’s Sholnn Freeman that the US-led forces had been trying to simply to carve a barrier right through the middle of Sadr City, in order to establish that line as a forward defensive perimeter for the GZ. That meant trying to push the new barrier right through the middle of some very densely populated districts. I can certainly imagine some of the suffering that has inflicted on all the families who live anywhere nearby. (The US military reported that 38 “gunmen” were killed in Sadr City yesterday. How about the noncombatant casualties, though? Also, why should we believe their designation that all those they counted as killed were actually involved in hostilities?)
Meanwhile, one other, extremely important effect of the US-led attempt to quadrillage Sadr City has been to firm up an emerging anti-US alliance between Iraqi MPs and political currents from a number of different currents that span Iraq’s sectarian and ethnic divides. About 50 leaders, including Ahmed Radhi, a member of the Iraqi Accord Front, and other Sunni-Arab and even Kurdish figures, joined a pro-national dialogue, and effectively pro-Sadr, protest in Sadr City yesterday.
McClatchy’s Hussein Kadhim and Raviya H. Ismail added to that report the following about Moqtada Sadr’s position:
- Sadr’s latest message, delivered during Friday prayers, called for the bloodshed between Iraqis to stop, yet asked for a united force against the U.S. occupation of Iraq.
“We want liberation of ourselves and our lands from the occupier,” part of the message read. “To have a real government and have real sovereignty.”
I can certainly see that, after five years of the gross mismanagement of their country by the occupying force, many Iraqis– including many members of the struggling new Iraqi security forces– would find this appeal quite attractive.
(More analysis of the anti-US bloc from Badger, here. Kudos to him for his attentiveness to the politics of the story.)
Meanwhile, all has most certainly not been going well for the US-led effort in Afghanistan. Yesterday, the Taliban showed their ability to penetrate close to the heart of a very high-security event being staged by the Karzai government, with all the foreign ambassadors and other dignitaries present. Themilitary display and speeches there were designed both to mark the anniversary of the mujahideen’s victory over the Soviets 16 years ago, and to demonstrate the capabilities of the new, US-built and US-controlled Afghan security forces.
Oops.
Asia Times Online’s Syed Saleem Shahzad gives a lot of helpful background about the Taliban action. He notes that the attackers “penetrated no fewer than 18 security rings around the parade’s venue and they used their latest weaponry – small mortars that are only manufactured by a few Western countries, including Israel.” They got to within 500 meters of the event’s main stage, sending salvoes from machine guns and rocket launchers into the back of the stage.
Karzai and the dignitaries escaped unharmed, but three Afghan Security Force people and three Taliban were killed in the ensuing shootout.
It sounds eerily like the attack Egyptian Islamists mounted in 1981, when they killed President Sadat while he was reviewing troops at a big, high-profile public event staged to commemorate the Egyptian army’s successful crossing of the Suez Canal eight years earlier. In that one, the attackers succeeded in killing Sadat. In both cases, the attackers had evidently gathered useful intelligence cooperation from people within the national armed forces involved.
Since yesterday’s attack in Kabul, NATO and US spinmeisters have been working overtime to try to put a brave face on what happened. (E.g. here.) But the event certainly points to the fragile nature of the US-led order in Afghanistan. Shahzad’s piece has lots more details and what looks like a good and fair analysis. His bottom line: NATO has gotten smarter and somewhat more effective, but the Taliban have also adapted and learned… “Indeed,” he warns, “the Taliban have lined up a stream of attackers to target Kabul to rattle the Afghan government and NATO forces in coming days and weeks.”
Over recent weeks, Defense Secretary Robert Gates has pleaded and pleaded with the NATO allies to commit more combat troops to Afghanistan. With little success. So how can the dangerous military situations that the US and its small number of combat-willing allies now face in both Iraq and Afghanistan be dealt with without disaster? Hard to say. But calling for the UN to convene and lead a much broader–that is, no longer US-dominated– political stabilization effort for both countries seems to be the only way to avoid a disaster in one or both theaters that might well blow up– even on George W. Bush’s watch.
- Update Monday evening: A well-researched piece of reporting about Afghanistan in Tuesday’s CSM, by Anand Gopal. He has material from an interview with a strongly pro-Taliban student at Kabul University, and a lot of other fascinating material.
Helena, what is a “political stabilization effort?” And I don’t think that the US would cede its presumed power to the UN. It flies in the face of American Exceptionalism and would jeopardize the “victory” that is always just one Friedman unit away.
As you suggest, there must be political (not military) solutions to these problems but that would require us to reduce our faith in Lord Petraeus with all of his colorful ribbons, and turn us into surrender monkeys. (Obama just endorsed his promotion — so much for “mindset.”) I’m afraid we’re stuck with Petraeus and war ’til death (of the US empire) do us part. Pity.
It looks like the US Iraq strategy (?) is becoming very similar to the Israeli Palestine strategy. Although the analogy is far from complete, Sadr City is becoming the Gaza of Iraq, and the Mahdi army is becoming Hamas. The same failed strategy of building walls and fences and bombing with the knowlwdge that there will be severe civilian casualties (whatever the bombers’ intent) seems to be unfolding. And, of course, once a line or fence is constructed, then there must be a security zone on the other side and then a further zone to protect the security zone and then incursions to protect the protection zone, ad infinitum. Lacking the wit to see differences and nuances, Bush has always been a keen admirer of the “get tough” Israeli policy. It worked (more or less) in Israel for 40 years; why not 100 years (thank you McCain) in Iraq?
Tom Englehardt has a good piece on Petraeus. I have not had a chance to read the whole thing just yet, but he appears to be far less hopeful about Petraeus’ potential than Helena is. It probably comes as no surprise that I find Tom more convincing on the subject.
The following really struck a chord with me: “his years’ long wooing and winning of the American media, in the process of which he sold himself as a true American hero, a Caesar of celebrity.
“As far as can be told, there’s never been a seat in his helicopter that couldn’t be filled by a friendly (or adoring) reporter.”
It is not only the American media whom Petraeus has managed to charm into mindless adoration. I am personally acquainted with one very well-known Iraqi journalist (who shall remain unnamed), who is so completely blinded to any possible flaw or problem with him that I try very hard to avoid the subject with her since our views are so diametrically opposed.
By the way, I am writing this from and internet cafe in Aleppo, Syria, which is without question the best city in Syria and one of the best in the Middle East. If I were to return to the Middle East to live, this would be my first choice. Love the Syrian people, who are among the kindest, most helpful people in the world, love this city, don’t want to return to the U.S. at all, which I must do in a few days, and cannot wait to return. Well, depending on what happens in November, I might be back here sooner than I thought, although what with the recent attempts to fabricate yet another Middle Easter “nuclear threat” story, it might be safer elsewhere.
أتذكر يوماً رأيت فيه الإمتعاض والحزن على وجه أبي وأمي – رحمهما الله – وهما يتابعان عبر التلفاز مشاهد الجنود الصهاينة وهم يلصقون صور النساء العاريات على جدران المسجد الأقصى ، وكنت أتصور أن الإنحطاط الذي تقوم به عصابات الصهاينة هو أسوأ ما يكون من التسافل ، وعندها ، قلت أن القيامة آتية لا ريب فيها ، فقال لي أبي ..:- لا …لعل الآتي أسوأ .
ومرت الأعوام وعبارة والدي ترن في ذاكرتي ، وجاء صدام ، وانتهى صدام ، وشبعنا حد التخمة من انتهاكاته لحرم الدين والإنسانية والأبرياء وشربنا من استهتاره كأس الألم حد الثمالة ، وانتهى زمن صدام ، وجاءت قوات الإحتلال ، ومعها حكومة المجلس – أعني مجلس الحكم – وليس مجلساً آخر ، واشتغلت المطارق من جديد ، ونسيت حادثة لصق صور العاريات على جدران المسجد الأقصى لهول ما رأيناه من انتهاكات على يد حكومة الإحتلال وقوات الإحتلال .
http://www.kitabat.com/i38263.htm
After more than 5 years the Mission Still Not Accomplished.
Iraqi cities towns still bombs by illegal weaponry and bombs, Iraqis been killed on a daily basis, more mass graves discovered (looks like they copy Saddam graves acts), from Sunni triangle to massive graves now.
Those Da’awa party criminals who commented terror acts inside Iraq from killing academic staff in university of technology in early 1980, failed tries to kill vice chancellor of the university left one dead and few injured, putting explosives in the rubbish bin on the streets of Al-mansoor districts injured many civilians, these type of peoples who now supported by US to lead innocent Iraqi who they suffered the most. despite they looks and acting in very religious manners in public creating Taqyaa for themselves, nicknamed sayyied or Ayatollah falsely but they follow their self desired corruptions from stealing the wealth of the country control and invaded old regimes personal castles and house, made small green zones for themselves as old regime did.
What you expect from all that?
A sovereign country a respected government which elected by fake election scenario. These leaders can not walking ten meters on the streets of Iraq while western media put them as the strongest and biggest block of Iraq leaders? Which block they talking about?
South Iraq living in misery oil thefts going on oil meters till now not installed from the time of lunatic Paul Bremer who oppose putting meters on oil production. Basra still living in chaos other cities living under gangs and militias, is this what southern Iraqis expected from those who cries for them more than 25 years accusing old regime tyrant polices toward them?
what they done for them or let put the balms on the old regime and Ba’athest till it comes every one killed, all chaos looting thieving Iraqi resources blames goes to Ba’athest, let dismantle this Nazi party, exactly as old regime did with Da’awa and other groups, what the difference then? This party as same as Ba’athest party did crimes and Nazi acts isn’t?
More combat troops to Afghanistan? Bad idea. Don’t they get it, after six years of failure?
Barnett Rubin: “Afghan stability ultimately depends on lowering the level of threat through multilateral diplomacy and political negotiations.”
It would seem that Afghanis should decide what they need and what they should do. But, according to AP:
The government’s ability to run the country effectively is seriously affected by pervasive corruption at all levels of administration, as well as by challenges posed by Taliban and other insurgents, especially in the country’s south.
The government must combat corruption, overcome infrastructure bottlenecks and implement structural reforms in order to stimulate the private sector. “Private sector growth is needed for any economic resurgence, yet this is hampered by intermittent power supplies, poor land titling, corruption, insecurity and limited access to finance,” a report said.
More than two-thirds of foreign assistance to Afghanistan is not channeled through the government, “which is a serious fiscal policy constraint, hampering expenditure prioritization, government development management and overall aid effectiveness.”
Another report released last week found that too much aid money meant for Afghanistan is wasted, with a vast amount being spent on the high salaries, security and living arrangements of foreign workers.
What a mess, and apparently it will go on forever.
Defeated in Iraq: How America Lost the War
Jonathan Steele is a senior correspondent and columnist for London’s Guardian newspaper. He made eight reporting trips to Iraq between 2003 and 2006. His new book Defeat: Why They Lost Iraq was recently released in the United States.
The Security Council, (…) Determining that the situation in Iraq continues to constitute a threat to international peace and security, Acting under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, 1. Notes that the presence of the multinational force in Iraq is at the request of the Government of Iraq and reaffirms the authorization for the multinational force S/RES/1790 (2007) 4 07-65072 as set forth in resolution 1546 (2004) and decides to extend the mandate as set forth in that resolution until 31 December 2008 (….)
Happy days.
…
Oriana Fallaci !! get out from your grave to see your cries about Dakel Abbas how many Dakel Abbas alike suffering now.
BTW I think she report his name wrong should be Dakhel which most comon name in Iraq but not Dakel
His name was Dakel Abbas, and he was a 21-year-old Iraqi soldier drafted in a village where along with his wife he lived raising cucumbers, onions, eggplants. A village near As-Samawah, central Iraq. Rather than a soldier, however, you would have thought him to be a survivor from a concentration camp. His head looked like a skull with a nose and a mouth and two eyes. His chest, a bas-relief of ribs hardly covered by skin. His biceps, tiny bones that could fit inside the palm of a child. (Saddam Hussein does not feed the troops very well.) He had been captured at the end of the Gulf War by members of the Kuwaiti Resistance who, supposedly by mistake, had opened fire on his group while it surrendered. In fact he appeared badly wounded and the doctors didn’t know whether he would recover.
I found him by chance in a ward of Kuwait City’s Mubarak Hospital where he had lain for ten days next to fellow prisoners who kept their faces hidden under the sheets or avoided my eyes. Unlike them, he stared at me insistently. Almost imploring. So I approached him and through an interpreter I asked if he wanted to tell me something. He answered yes, I activated my tape-recorder, and immediately he began to talk. He went on talking for a long time, with such passion and determination that I practically could not interrupt him. Besides, there was no need for questions. His soliloquy contained all the answers, his story spoke by itself.
BY ORIANA FALLACI!!!
Don,
Interestingly, in my hotel in Aleppo on the first morning there I met a very nice, thoughtful, and interesting Aussie woman who is living in Kabul working for the U.N. She has a very different take on the Afghanistan situation, and on Iraq than you or I do – feels the U.S. has some kind of obligation to put Iraq on its feet (not her words, my interpretation) after (my words now) knocking its feet from under it, and then cutting off its legs up to the hips and its arms to the shoulders. Well, I did not argue with her partly because I wanted to hear her thinking, but whatever obligation the U.S. has, it is the last one that can do anything good for Iraq, just as a murdering rapist is the last one to bring healing to his victim.
In addition, though she shakes her head in disgust at the U.S. government (and not just Bush II), she agrees with Hillary Clinton that “there is only one war” – Afghanistan. In other words, that effort should continue. It was interesting to hear another perspective, but I remain unconvinced.
Shirin,
Thanks.
I’ve enjoyed this series of articles from Kabul, and am looking forward to Part 3.
http://kabulpress.org/my/spip.php?article1460
http://kabulpress.org/my/spip.php?article1504
That CONOCO guy Karzai that the US installed six years ago just doesn’t seem to be working out.
Don