The L.A. Times has quoted Joost Hiltermann as saying that Moqtada Sadr looks like the emerging political force inside Iraq, while US-installed PM Nouri al-Maliki looks like a lame duck. But the developments of the past week have had a much wider impact than that. With Maliki’s US-backed forces licking the significant wounds they received from their drubbing in Basra and mortar attacks on the Baghdad Green Zone still continuing, it now looks as if the US military’s ability to maintain its position of dominance in Iraq— let alone “project” its power from there to anywhere else, including of course Iran– has been significantly eroded.
Worth noting: it was not just any Iranian body or individual who brokered the most recent ceasefire around Basra. It was the Commander of the Qods (Jerusalem) Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Yes, the same IRGC that the Bush administration recently decided, with much fanfare, to put onto the US’s “terrorism list.”
So much for the U.S. government’s jejune and often actively counter-productive practice of seeking to exclude significant political forces from any negotiations through the use of these “lists.” (Lists that have little basis in objective reality since they exclude the perpetrators of many well-documented acts of state terrorism such as assassinations and deliberate attempts to starve civilian populations into political submission. Well, I guess the U.S. government cannot count acts like those as “terrorism”, since Washington itself and its Israeli ally rely on them a lot.)
So here we have IRGC restoring– I hope– a measure of calm and a political breathing space to Basra and its environs in southern Iraq by mediating a negotiation among the relevant parties, while Gen. Petraeus and his superiors have to stand on the sidelines.
Paul Krugman says it best, when he notes about US policy in Iraq that,
- America is spending $12 billion a month to sustain what has, in practice, become an Iranian sphere of influence.
Basra now clearly looks to have been Maliki’s “bridge too far.” And given the degree to which the US “plan” in Iraq– if we can dignify Washington’s hastily-cobbled-together string of reactions to Iraqi developments with that name– has been reliant on the Maliki government developing some coherence and ability to govern, the debacle he and his forces suffered in Basra may well come to be seen as a turning point for US power in Iraq and in the Gulf region as a whole.
After this, does all the water of US pretensions in the Gulf region just swoosh down the plug-hole fairly rapidly? Could happen.
If the debacle that befell Maliki’s forces in Basra is not now to expand into a disorderly chaos for the whole of the US position in Iraq, Washington needs to start talking to all of Iraq’s neighbors about the situation there, rather quickly. Most especially Iran.
U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon should convene these negotiations with utmost haste.
One last point. Though for now it looks as if Iran has emerged from the events of the past week as the most powerful force in Iraq, Badger of Missling Links provides some further nuance to the story, noting that there is also an Iraqi-nationalist sub-theme to what has been going on– and therefore, necessarily, a degree of continuing negotiation required between the Iraqi nationalist trends and the more solidly pro-Iranian trends within the anti-US coalition. There are many parallels there with the situation in Lebanon as Israel’s occupation of the country started falling apart in the late 1980s, and most particularly the still-continuing negotiations there between the Lebanese-nationalist trends and the more solidly pro-Syrian trends…
Interesting times.
The US-trained Iraq Security Forces have an iron rule — join the enemy and you’re fired. It’s a tough but necessary policy.
Azzaman, March 31, 2008
Interior Minister Jawad Boulani has ordered the dismissal of thousands of police members and officers who allegedly refused orders to take part in the fight against the militiamen of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Analysts say those sacked will have no choice but to join the ranks of Mahdi Army with their weapons, boosting the militia’s strength and standing.
The decision covers most of the police force in the predominantly Shiite neighborhoods of Baghdad and also several cities in the southern Iraq including Basra where most of the recent fighting took place.
Several cities in southern Iraq among them Baghdad and Basra were placed under tight curfews as battles between the militiamen and government troops raged.
Thousands of police officers were reported to have refused fighting the militiamen and at least two army regiments joined them with their weapons in Baghdad.
“I would say that this is a defining moment in the history of a free Iraq.” G.W. Bush 3/28/08
“U.S. position in Iraq eroding fast”
Not nearly fast enough!
Well, well, well! Badger certainly has some interesting information today!
“A military source lifted the veil on information that the American ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker has decided to change the location of the American Embassy [which is now] in the Green Zone in Baghdad, because it has been suject to a series of rocket attacks in recent days, that have led to the killing and injuring of a number of American employees.”
I wonder whether they are being air lifted from the roof of the Imperial Command and Control Center – pardon me, “embassy” – by helicopter!
Interesting story badger picked up there. Still I had to check the date, but it’s 31 March, and not 1 April. I don’t suppose the poisson d’avril is much thought of in Iraq (or the Gulf).
But I still don’t believe the story, where would the embassy go to? (not, by the way, where it ought to go to) where else in Baghdad is adequately equipped?
Basra now clearly looks to have been Maliki’s “bridge too far.”
I’m sure that’s right. (though the allies did finish by “winning” the second world war!) Basra was a major crisis, and the resolution has been an agreement in accordance with political strengths. Quite a positive note in its way. The Iraqis are indeed capable of reaching agreements among themselves (which is what I always thought, of course). It will not be endless bloodshed if the US withdraws, and it has been shown.
Naturally the US is sidelined, but what did you expect? There is absolutely no future for the US occupation, in the fashion that all the parties in Washington see it. The wisest course for the US would be to negotiate a symbolic figleaf continuing presence (in order to be able to pretend that US interests are being protected), and get the rest out. In any case, the catastrophic economic consequences of the Bush presidency are going to force such a move in a year or two.
I am sure that some commenters, including one who posted just before me, may come back and say the US should just get the hell out, and leave a blank cheque on the way, as I believe she once said. But figleaves are very important in diplomacy. The US is not going to get out without one. And what I deeply and fervently most want is that the US should get out of Iraq. The hell will go on until they do.
By the way, a “bridge too far” is not a bad description of Iraq itself for the US.
“I am sure that some commenters, including one who posted just before me, may come back and say the US should just get the hell out, and leave a blank cheque on the way, as I believe she once said.”
You got THAT right! :o}
“But figleaves are very important in diplomacy.”
But this is not, and has never been, diplomacy. And if anyone deserves to have to stand fully exposed in all its leafless glory, it is the United States in this situation.
“The US is not going to get out without one.”
I believe it got out of Viet Nam without one, did it not?
“And what I deeply and fervently most want is that the US should get out of Iraq.”
I know that Alex, but leaving a “figleaf” is not out, and in any case, the United States would never leave a useless figleaf. Whatever they leave there, you can be sure it will not be merely to cover U.S. “sensitive parts”, and it will not be harmless for Iraq.
Historically the more the U.S. has been involved in Iraq’s business the worse things have been there, and the best times in Iraq have been the times of least U.S. involvement. I do not think that is a coincidence.
According to a recent ABC/BBC Poll:
58% disapprove of PM Maliki
70% say the US forces have done quite a bad job or a very bad job
72% somewhat or strongly oppose US forces
53% say security is made worse when US forces are present
42% say attacks on US forces are acceptable
63% say they are not very safe or not safe at all in their neighborhood
36% say they would leave the country if they could, and almost half of those have current plans to do so
69% say that security would improve or stay the same if US forces left the country entirely
38% say US troops should leave at once
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/14_03_08iraqpollmarch2008.pdf
Sorry — I should have stated that poll was taken in Iraq.
But this is not, and has never been, diplomacy.
No. The invasion and occupation are not diplomacy, agreed. Getting the Americans out will involve diplomacy.
I believe it got out of Viet Nam without one, did it not?
The diplomatic agreement was the Paris Conference of 1973, which got the US troops out of the country. That is what we want in Iraq, is it not?
but leaving a “figleaf” is not out, and in any case, the United States would never leave a useless figleaf.
Like I say, these things have to be viewed more subtlely, than a mere “out”. The answer to “never leave a useless figleaf” is that they won’t of their own free will. But as I have insisted again and again, the US is not really free to do what it wants. The Neocons were misled by the “victory” in the Cold War into thinking that the US is a free actor, the most powerful state that ever existed, and then the Bush administration hid its head in the sand over the costs. And consequently now we have a serious recession which is going to force a stop to adventures in the Middle east. They need a figleaf in order to permit them to get out. Give it to them, and then do a Saigon 75 a couple of years later. That’s the idea.
“The diplomatic agreement was the Paris Conference of 1973, which got the US troops out of the country. That is what we want in Iraq, is it not?”
Actually, it’s NOT what I want. What I want is the U.S. out of Iraq’s business completely.
And that, by the way, is one of the reasons I do not support either Hillary Clinton, or Barak Obama. Each of them has made clear (outside their very carefully worded “withdrawal” sound bites) that they intend to keep a very considerable “residual” force in the country, and that the “mission” of that force will include a considerable amount of what can only reasonably be described as combat.
And then there is the Imperial Command and Control Center, risibly called an “embassy” which each of them intends to maintain – simply not acceptable.
“Give it to them, and then do a Saigon 75 a couple of years later. That’s the idea.”
I have to admit that is a more practical approach than mine, which is “you are not welcome here, pack your bags and go – NOW!”. I mean, haven’t they done enough?!!!!!
Badger is confirming the Green Zone exodus story. Evidently I was wrong to disbelieve.
http://arablinks.blogspot.com/2008/04/alquds-alarabi-confirms-greenzone.html
If it’s true, it is as major as the Basra affair.
It looks as if the helicopters of Saigon fly home to roost in certain folks’ over-vivid imaginations and mark the unofficial commencement of Silly Season, like swallows to San Juan Capistrano. Or vultures to Hinckley OH .
Considering their educational and other cultural pretensions and credentials, the said folks really ought to know a little better.
Meanwhile, that banner with the strange device “A proud member of the reality-based community since Feb. 2003” still flutters at the masthead . . . .
Happy days.
America is spending $12 billion a month to sustain what has, in practice, become an Iranian sphere of influence.
Oh Yah, things change, I did and I do say Iran fiddling inside Iraq.I attcked personally here in this space by some unfriendly and blinded guys. its reached in one stage that my comments deleted and I insulted by W. Scott Harrop when I said he is “more “Iranian than Iranians” due to his permanent defends Iranians of fiddling in Iraq internal affairs by supporting, funding and helping guys who lived 25 years in Iran and they came back with their agenda of opposition to Tyrant regime from torturing prison and killing Iraqis.
Now its very obvious these factions from Da’awa party “Terrorist group that did hijacked Kuwaiti Airplane in 1983, with other terrorist acts” with Badr Brigade/Bader Corps which is created and funded by Iran 25years ago now immerge within Iraqi police and security forces.
So for the last five years Iraqi have seen “Holocaust” which same guys claiming the suffring old regime.
So now you talking about “Quds Force”! they are in iraq since 2003 fiddling and killing Iraqi spatially they tragted and killed Iraqi military commanders who were in 8 years Iraq/Iran war also those Iraqi POW who returned from Iran and spoke about of bad treatment what suffered from Iranians tratement for 10 years.
all this never been highlighted and when I did put it here I been attacked by those blind guys.
Thanks after five years here in same place start from Helena seeing things changed.
”
البصرة عاشت خمس سنوات خارج نطاق القانون…. ليس فيها شيء اسمه قانون…. لم نر مظاهر النظام والقانون ابدا منذ سقوط صدام ونظامه…ولاادري من الذي قال لك ان مكاتب السيد تنظم الحياة عندنا؟؟؟؟؟ بل العكس هو الصحيح… فمكاتب السيد لا تختلف بشيء عن مكاتب بدر والمجلس والدعوة وثار الله وغيرها ممن استباحوا الدم العراقي….واذكرك بحادثة ضرب طلاب وطالبات جامعة البصرة من قبل مكتب السيد اثناء سفرة ترفيهية… نعم هكذا تقوم مكاتب السيد بفرض قوانين الغابة علينا نحن البصريين…. ولااعرف اذا كنت ترتدين الحجاب الاسلامي؟؟؟؟ لاني ساطلب منك ان تاتي الى البصرة يوما واحد بدون الحجاب…. ولنرى هل ستخرجين من البصرة تمشين على الارض ام ان مكاتب السيد سيكون لهم كلمتهم فيك … هذا ليس تجني ولا اتهام …. فكل الاحزاب الاسلامية والتيارات الدينية في البصرة تقوم بالقتل وارهاب الناس ويمكن ان ارسل لك عبر الايميل صور لافتات مكاتب السيد التي تقول (نحذر من السفور والتبرج ومن يخالف سيتعرض الى القصاص) ….. هل هكذا تنظم الحياة ؟؟؟؟؟ نعم ليس مكاتب الصدر وحدها تقوم بذلك فكل العصابات الاسلامية تقوم بها
”
”
لك ان تقبلي كلامي او ترفضيه ولكنها حقائق انا اعيشها كغيري من البصريين … نعاني الامرين من سطوة العصابات الدينية من بدر والمجلس والفضيلة والصدريين…. وصرنا نكره المتدينيين ونمقت الشعارات الدينية لانها سلبتنا معاني الحياة…
البصرة يا سيدتي العسكري يخاف فيها الشباب من الذهاب للحلاق وقص شعورهم…. تخاف الفتيات من ارتداء ازياء حديثة…. يخاف الرجل ان يقول ان ايام صدام كانت ارحم…. لان كل هؤلاء ببساطة سينتهي بهم الامر في احد مكاتب السيد ليتم التحقيق معه والقصاص منه….
ولااريد ان اتحدث عن الاحداث الاخيرة لانها ببساطة متشعبة ومعقدة ولاادري كم من الوقت سنحتاج لفهم ماجرى… لكن الكل هنا باستثناء العصابات الكل يريد تطبيق القانون والخلاص من سطوة المتدينيين….
والكثيرين من البصريين صاروا يتمنون ظهور تيار علماني قوي يكتسح الشارع العراقي ويحطم الاصنام التي صارت تتحكم بمقدرات العراقيين…. فهل يعقل ان شعبا اسس اول حضارة انسانية وانجب الخليل والسياب والفرزدق والجواهري واحمد مطر وغيرهم الكثير هل يعقل ان يتحكم مقتدى الصدر بمصيره فيقرر متى (يعلكها) ومتى يطفيها…..وهل عجز العراق ان ينجب قيادات تقوده للازدهار فصرنا تحت وطأة الحكيم والصدر وفتاوي رجالات سراديب النجف؟؟؟؟؟؟
”
http://www.kitabat.com/i37237.htm
The Waste Land
T.S. Eliot (1888–1965)
APRIL is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.
Winter kept us warm, covering 5
Earth in forgetful snow, feeding
A little life with dried tubers.
Summer surprised us, coming over the Starnbergersee
With a shower of rain; we stopped in the colonnade,
And went on in sunlight, into the Hofgarten, 10
And drank coffee, and talked for an hour.
Bin gar keine Russin, stamm’ aus Litauen, echt deutsch.
And when we were children, staying at the archduke’s,
My cousin’s, he took me out on a sled,
And I was frightened. He said, Marie, 15
Marie, hold on tight. And down we went.
In the mountains, there you feel free.
I read, much of the night, and go south in the winter.
http://www.bartleby.com/201/1.html
http://www.theotherpages.org/poems/eliot01.html
from IslamOnLine.net:
BAGHDAD — With volleys of mortars and rockets raining down on a daily basis for weeks, the Green Zone, home to the government seat and US and UK embassies, is increasingly losing its reputation as Baghdad most secured district.
“We wake and sleep everyday scared that any time a rocket might fall over our heads,” an employee in a foreign embassy told IslamOnline.net, asking not to be named. Two US officials and two Iraqi guards of Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi have been killed since Sunday inside the Green Zone.
from admkronos.com:
The city’s green zone, the area where the US forces and many embassies are based, was subjected to several missile attacks by the Mahdi army in recent days. “For several months there has been an escalation of guerilla attacks against the ‘green zone’ in the centre of Baghdad,” Iraqi journalist Hashim Hassan told the Arab network, Al Jazeera.
“The real news is that the missiles have been launched from the eastern part of Baghdad and in particular from an area far from the centre. What that means is that they are using missiles of a new type that have a longer range and that are launched with such precision they can strike directly at the US embassy and other embassies.”
According to Hassan, a journalist who specialises on military issues, new types of Katyusha missiles and even more powerful Hawn 170 missiles are now being used in Iraq.
from US Embassy Baghdad, 27 Mar 08:
This is to notify all U.S. citizens in Iraq that the U.S. Embassy has announced that, until further notice, all personnel under the authority of the Chief of Mission are required to wear body armor, helmet and protective eyewear anytime they are outside of building structures in the International Zone. In addition, Chief of Mission personnel in the International Zone have been advised to remain inside of hardened structures at all times, except for mission essential movements. The Department of State continues to strongly warn U.S. citizens against travel to Iraq, which remains very dangerous.
Further on the retreat from the Green Zone, big issue:
In principle, the retreat is temporary: when the bombardment stops, the US diplomats will return. But why should the bombardment stop? The launchers are no doubt mobile. Some may be caught by US air-strikes, but others will survive. The only solution is political.
In between times, the US has spent billions on their new embassy in the Green Zone. Now useless. I thought it would have a few years life, but I was wrong, the real answer was zero. They should now think about constructing a new embassy at Camp Victory (Baghdad international Airport). I wouldn’t advise a solid quality of construction there either: it will wreck the possibilities of agriculture on the limited agricultural land of Iraq, and will have to be abandoned in a year or two anyway.
Don Bacon,
“We wake and sleep everyday scared that any time a rocket might fall over our heads,” an employee in a foreign embassy told IslamOnline.net,
oh “scared” what about 25millions of Iraqis suffering from tow war in 1991, and in 2003 five years past still they can sleep, they can drive safely, they can go to school they can go to shops their daily necessities, more in mid of the night forces either US, Iraqi Militia fake forces demolish their home doors and entered and arrested those youth and men found so that the number of Iraqi detainees sky rocketing majority have no charges just are put in arrest.
So he have the choice to go home, its up to him to be there isn’t?
Can same guy cope with what Iraqi seen ever moment of death for no reason just on Big Lies of Freedom and Democracy?
I think that they’re patriots and that they don’t like us because we’ve invaded their country and occupied it. I think if the Iraqis were in Washington, D.C., we’d be doing the same thing: we’d be bombing them too. Nobody wants to be invaded.,/b>
CNN founder Ted Turner
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/brent-baker/2008/04/02/turner-iraqi-insurgents-patriots-i
naction-warming-cannibalism
Time to start paying the Mehdi Army. They’re going to be controlling the oil supply in the south.
In between times, the US has spent billions on their new embassy in the Green Zone. Now useless. I thought it would have a few years life, but I was wrong, the real answer was zero.
The wish is father to the thought. You seem to be quite certain that the Americans will leave, apart from leaving a “fig leaf”-force, that is. Let’s assume that it is true (I don’t believe it, but that’s not the point here). If there is a “fig leaf”, and the fig leaf is attacked, will the Americans send in the Air Force and a “strike force” to defend it, or leave Iraq all together? This whole idea of a “fig leaf” is nonsense. You either leave enough troops to defend yourself (which would be much more than a “fig leaf”), or you leave the country.
Leaving the country completely and as soon as possible, by the way, is exactly what the Americans should do, if there was any justice in the world. Why? The Americans invaded Iraq in a unprovoked war of aggression, the type of war that was defined by the Nuremberg Tribunal as “the supreme international crime, differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.”
The Americans destroyed Iraq as few countries have ever been destroyed, and yet it seems almost blasphemous to plea for a complete and total American withdrawal, as soon as possible, and without conditions. The Americans occupy Iraq; they don’t own it. They are not welcome there. They have no right to be there. They should leave, without conditions, the sooner the better.
Yet I don’t think they will, whoever the next president will be. Why? Because of oil. The one subject almost never mentioned in debates about the American presence in Iraq is oil.
Oil? Don’t mention that word, please! The American presence in Iraq has nothing, I repeat, nothing to do with oil! Perish the thought!
In reality though the whole invasion and occupation of Iraq is drenched in oil. The Hamilton Baker report is drenched in oil. Even the top of the American administration itself is drenched in oil; Cheney, Bush, and Rice for instance came straight from the oil industry to become President, Vice President, and National Security Advisor (and later Secretary of State).
Iraq has the second largest proven oil reserves in the world. Because of peak oil, controlling these reserves will become even more crucial than it ever was before.
I fear this largest embassy in the world the Americans have built in the Green Zone will be there for many years to come.
I fear this largest embassy in the world the Americans have built in the Green Zone will be there for many years to come.
I see you are a believer in the infallibility of American power. Well, you are welcome to believe that if you wish. Of course, there’s another way the embassy will be there for many years to come, and that is that the thousands of tons of concrete will be impossible to demolish, and will have to be left to rot.
Figleaves are a part of diplomacy, that is, a practical way of achieving progress. It is not a question of final results, which I agree with you are two options: full military occupation, or total evacuation.