So the House Democratic leaders say they want to put forward their own plan for Iraq as a counter to Bush’s? Here is an excellent plan that I have thought long and hard about that I urge them to use.
(Please note that, unlike the vast majority of the people now producing “plans” for Iraq, I have extensive experience in both Middle East studies and strategic studies, as well as the study of peacemaking. Readers might want to see some of what I was writing back in August 2002, Jan. ’03, Feb. ’03, or April ’03 about the US and Iraq….)
So here is my Three-step program for a US disengagement from Iraq:
(1) The President makes an authoritative public statement in which he announces,
- (a) His firm intention to pull all US troops out of Iraq by a date certain, perhaps 4-6 months ahead;
(b) An assurance that the US has no lasting claims on the land or resources of Iraq;
(c) An expression of the US’s goodwill towards the people of Iraq, and its sympathy for all the harms that they have suffered in recent years; and
(d) An invitation to the UN Secretary-General to oversee the process of negotiating all the modalities of the US troop withdrawal, including the formation of an Iraqi negotiating team of his (not the US’s) choice, and the convening of a parallel negotiation that involves Iraq, the US, and all Iraq’s neighbors.
(2) The clock starts ticking on the timetable announced by the President. That fact and the other new diplomatic realities created by his announcement all act together to start transforming the political dynamics within Iraq, the region, and indeed the US, as well. The Iraqi parties and movements all have a powerful incentive to work with each other and the UN for the speedy success of the negotiation over the post-occupation political order. They and the UN also start planning for the many tasks of social, economic, and political reconstruction that the country needs. Another important function for the UN will be to resurrect and re-stress the principle of Iraq’s territorial integrity and national soveriegnty against all the pressures that its powerful neighbors may exert in this fragile period. In these months the US troops in Iraq might come under some form of UN command (as happened– imperfectly, but with ultimate success– during an analogous process of a negotiated troop withdrawal in Namibia, in 1989.) But anyway, the US troops’ main mission in this period will be to organize and start implementing their own orderly departure from the country.
(3) On the date certain the last US troops leave Iraq and there is a handing-over ceremony.
… For those who don’t believe such a program is feasible, I’ll just note that when I was growing up in England in the late 1950s and the 1960s this kind of thing was happening almost every week as our “empire” got dismantled. It truly ain’t rocket science.
Iraq is lucky that it has hundreds of thousands of very well-trained technicians, administrators, and other professionals who can– in the right political circumstances– set to work to rebuild their country. They did that successfully after the end of 1990-91 Gulf War, even in the difficult situation of ongoing UN sanctions. (The US should contribute some “reparations” payments to help Iraq’s next reconstruction program along, but should absolutely not seek any control over it.)
Can Iraqis reach and sustain the kind of internal political entente that will allow an orderly, negotiated US troops withdrawal to take place? If they are convinced they can truly regain their national sovereignty through a process like that outlined above, there is no reason to believe that they can’t. Unlike the way Iraq is portrayed in most US media, there is still an ongoing process of cross-sectarian politics underway in the country, alongside the many, more widely publicized, episodes of sectarian killing and ethnic cleansing.
The US and the rest of the international community have a strong incentive to allow (or even quietly help) Iraqis to reach such a withdrawal-focused entente. Apart from anything else, the lives of 150,000 US Americans come close to depending on it.
Helena
Where do the troops withdraw to? Kuwait, Bahrain or Germany?
What will the effect on the oil price and the Stock Market be?
“Where do the troops withdraw to? Kuwait, Bahrain or Germany?”
How about to the United States where they belong, and where they ought to stay?
The underlying problem is the nature of the political discourse in the United States where Iraq is looked upon as a mistake or a quagmire when it is a crime carried out by Congress at the behest of public opinion prompted by a President with a much broader agenda. The fundamental purpose of the war was to start other wars, to bring history to a conclusion by tidying up the resistance to empire.
The only way to end the war is to rewind the process, starting with troop withdrawal and ending with an analysis of the States’ congenital weakness for demagoguery, tinged with racism with a whiff of genocide thrown in. Saying “we made a mistake” will not suffice. Check out the Vietnam experience, where were the apoologies and reparations? Promised, perhaps but never delivered, lost in a miasma of self pitying rhetoric and the constant dishonesty of liberal imperialism. Isn’t that what Monticello and Charlottesville really symbolise? It was Jefferson’s supporters who chased the Quakers out of Pennsylvania.
Your plan is probably the best that could be hoped for in the real world. Personally I’d like to see more emphasis on apology and reparations, and it would be nice to see the last few Americans barely escaping with their lives in humiliating rooftop helicopter airlifts, but I know practical solutions have to come ahead of justice and satisfaction of grievances in conflict situations.
As a British citizen, my own main interest is in pursuing a vindictive and drawn out campaign against the politicians responsible for this criminal act. They must be seen to pay, and keep paying, for this crime. Memories are short and it won’t be long before people see that only Blair and Bush survived the act unimpeached, and politicians are tempted to do something similar again. Thus are legal precedents set.
However, I do not think your plan, or anything similar to it, will be adopted. The interests of the politicians responsible for this ongoing tragedy are diametrically opposed to the interests of the people who are actually suffering from it. Given a sufficiently shameless and brazenly thick-skinned refusal to take responsibility by resigning, Blair, Bush and the others who supported this elective war can survive so long as they resist actually admitting defeat. As long as they maintain this denial, most of their hard core ideological supporters will not completely abandon them even in the face of total disaster. Bush, I think, hopes to push the Democrats into cutting off funding for the war so that he and the right and the pro-war left in general (not just in the US) can create an enduring “stab in the back” myth which will sustain their denial in perpetuity.
“…people see that only Blair and Bush survived….”
Sorry – that should be “….see only that…”
dear Helena:
too bad your plan doesn’t recognize the concept of U.S. imperialism and exceptionalism
thus, you already know that your three step plan is just another pipe dream
but, don’t cry — i’ll give you an A+ for effort
~ theDdoubleSstandard
dear Helena:
too bad your plan doesn’t recognize the concept of U.S. imperialism and exceptionalism
thus, you already know that your three step plan is just another pipe dream
but, don’t cry — i’ll give you an A+ for effort
~ theDdoubleSstandard
WHY DOES EVERYONE LEAVE OUT THE ONE IMPORTANT ITEM THAT COULD MAKE IT WORK.
THE USA AND THE UK MUST PAY COMPENSATION FOR THE DAMAGE DONE AND THE PEOPLE WRONGLY KILLED AND JUST GET OUT
I SUGGEST 1000 BILLION CASH TO BE ADMINISTERED INDEPENDENTLY BY THE UN THIS WILL CONCENTRATE MINDS.
Um, John, I didn’t leave it out?
CNN reports that US forces are now engaged in “combat” in Somalia. I put “combat” in quotes because what is actually happening is just an AC-130 gunship is gunning down some unarmed or lightly armed people on the ground. That’s what they use those things for, you know – killing people who can’t fight back – like in Fallujah.
See Dick & W are completely free to attack anyone they want, at any time, anywhere in the world, without asking anybody’s permission. Got that?
This sounds great except for one thing: The oligarchs of this country do have ill will towards the people of Iraq and they do have a claim on the land and resources…Guess that’s at the root of it.
This sounds great except for one thing: The oligarchs of this country do have ill will towards the people of Iraq and they do have a claim on the land and resources…Guess that’s at the root of it.
Helena,
I give you credit for having way more smarts and way more sense than 90% of the folks in DC.
And way more morals too.
Well, this is last helicopter solution and it is both inevitable long-term and impossible short-term :(((
John C
Perhaps you would like to take the quotes off the combat.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/08/AR2007010801635.html
Note the reference to ground troops. There are 1500 troops at Camp Lemonier in Djibouti. In the handover between empires the US moved into the old Foreign Legion base in 1991.
In an analogous fashion to the beginning of the Iraq war the advice of the experts to stay out of the Somali situation has been overruled.
We are seeing the opening of a new front. This is known in the trade as “Mission Creep”. This is the legacy that will be passed on to the man or woman unlucky enough to draw the short straw in the US presidential elections in 2008.
The next phase once East Africa is in flames will be to move towards the Great Lakes. Gosh they must have had fun writing this scenario.
I am glad helena is familiar with that particular area.
Helena,
I admire your positivism, but cannot share it. The US does not wish to withdraw from Iraq, now or no time soon. It will either manage to forge together some form of puppet client state, or will be forced to withdraw, a la Saigon. Their form of involvement, which is reminiscent of the crusader castles and forts of the East Mediterranean coast, protects them from large casualties. Bleeding a few men per week is not sufficient incentive to wake up the populace. Call me a conspiracy nut if you will, but I believe they are quite happy about the “sectarian violence”, and perhaps even behind a whole lot of it. If the Iraqis can get their act together and achieve a minimal degree of unity, the US is out. If the Iraqis continue killing each other, the US will cling on, even if it is by the skin of their teeth. We can sit here and plan all we want; Washington has not spent half a trillion dollars to walk away.
Khamenei not dead!
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/print.asp?page=2007\01\09\story_9-1-2007_pg7_4
Does anyone think these are counter-threats to the Times report?
Helena, FYI
http://conflictsforum.org/2007/elliot-abrams-uncivil-war/print/
This is pretty scary. Very scary.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8592450391315516460&hl=en
US AC130 gunships are bombing and strafing African bush villages.
I am hardly able to write to you.
How has it come to this?
David, John C, Jonathan
Hells Teeth, Thats all we need.
The Sudan is coming unglued. Who on earth said they could start mayhem in the Nile Basin?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6244889.stm
This is serious. There aren’t enough troops to go around. You will recall that I wondered when Sudan would get in the frame around about 27 December in another post.
The difficulty is that Sudan has borders with most places in Africa and has forty million people 40% of whom live below the poverty line. So instability in Sudan spreads everywhere.
The Sudan is coming unglued. Who on earth said they could start mayhem in the Nile Basin?
It gets even worse. The Rift Valley fever epidemic in northern Kenya has reportedly spread to Somalia, and disease control agencies can’t get in due to the fighting. If the outbreak isn’t controlled, it will decimate the herds, which (to put it mildly) won’t be good for regional food security.
There was, of course, no planning for any of this before the invasion, although the RVF outbreak had been in progress for several weeks.
what’s so funny bout peace, love, and understanding?
Dominic
If you read Thomas Mann “The Magic Mountain” everybody lives in an artificial world oblivious of the forces building up until too late. They distract themselves with the higher things while the contingency plans and mobilisation schedules are constructed in the background.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Magic_Mountain
And then, one day a few youths are manipulated into shooting an Archduke and his wife by a minor intelligence officer. And forty million people become casualties.
History is full of examples of the same kind of outbreak of authoritarian and supremacist horror that breaks out periodically. People remember the little people who would rather resist than roll over.
Leonidas held his pass in Greece and died fighting. The Jews defended Masada till all hope was gone and died rather than be slaves. The Viennese held their City against the worst 100,000 Turks could throw at them until the king of Poland showed up. The Texans defended the Alamo and died where they stood. The citizens of Leningrad starved but held on.
It stops in the end because people realise how far they have departed from their standards of behaviour and decency, or they are exhausted, or they run out of people to kill.
I think Ted Kennedy just pointed out that you can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time but ……
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/01/09/kennedy-george-bushs-vietnam/
At least 50 people estimated killed in a strike (in Somalia) that was apparently aimed at 3 suspected “terrorists.”
Assuming they got the 3 they were after (unknown), that’s a “collateral damage” ratio of about 16:1.
I guess the Somalis have to be prepared to make some sacrifices for our safety.
New Oil Law Means Victory in Iraq for Bush
My feeling is that the tide is turning in Iraq and in a number of other fronts. Don’t know if the glass is half full but I am happy to summarize every week the items that are filling it recently:
– Saddam ain’t coming back, so maybe the Sunnis will realize the Sunni exclusive rule epoch is over.
– The US is ready to up the ante, no running away, no apologies, no reparations, just overcome the difficulties and rebuild. Not sure what history books Shirin reads (other than her holy Koran), winners never pay reparations, losers do.
– No more shadow boxing with Al Qaeda, real targets in Somalia. Collateral damage? Sure, that is the price of mingling with Al Qaeda.
– 9/11 Moroccan facilitator convicted in Germany after reversing on appeal.
– More Iraqi refugees displaced than the so called Naqba in 1948. And who is doing the displacement? Their own Muslim sectarian war. Let’s see the UN create some sort of UNWRA and stretch their misery for 50 years in refugee camps. Hypocrits.
How very nice! We have had the honour of another visit from a real pioneer – the world’s first ummologist.
“– Saddam ain’t coming back, so maybe the Sunnis will realize the Sunni exclusive rule epoch is over.”
1. I know this is difficult to believe, but Iraq and Saddam did not spring into being simultaneously. Saddam is not the only “leader” Iraq has had.
2. I know this will come as a shock, but there never has been “Sunni exclusive rule” in Iraq, at least since it became a state. This is particularly the case during the time of the Ba`th party.
As difficult as this may be to absorb, the Ba`th party is not a Sunni party. It is not even a Muslim party. It is a secular socialist pan Arab party that was – shock of shocks! – founded by a Christian and an Allawite Muslim. The Allawi sect, by the way, is an offshoot of Shi`a Islam, not Sunni Islam. Those who get all their information on Iraq from the self-appointed and Bushite-appointed “experts” and Fox News talking heads would, of course, faint from shock if they knew how many high officials and otherwise important figures in Saddam’s regime – including those who were part of that embarrassingly, childishly ridiculous American deck of cards – were not Sunnis, so let’s not tell them, OK?
“– The US is ready to up the ante, no running away, no apologies, no reparations, just overcome the difficulties and rebuild.”
Oh, right! Of course! So sorry – just overcome the difficulties and rebuild. How silly of me.
“Not sure what history books Shirin reads (other than her holy Koran)…”
Ummmmm – Doris, it would seem to me fundamental for an ummologist, as you clearly are, to know something about the holy Koran (sic), including what kind of book it is. Hint: It is not a history book.
“…winners never pay reparations, losers do.”
One way or another those who commit the ultimate war crime of starting a war based on naked aggression do pay, and sometimes when they least expect it.
“– No more shadow boxing with Al Qaeda, real targets in Somalia.”
Say, Doris, where IS Osama bin Laden? Really? You have no clue? Hmmmmmm – well, what about Dhawahiri? No idea? Okay, then, how ARE things going in Afghanistan?
“Collateral damage? Sure, that is the price of mingling with Al Qaeda.”
You know, you are so right. All those hundreds of men, women, children, and infants living in the Somali bush villages the U.S. attacked deserved just what they got for being in their homes when Bush saw a coupel of suspected – get that? SUSPECTED – Al Qa`eda members hanging around. It’s completely their own fault.
“ – More Iraqi refugees displaced than the so called Naqba in 1948.”
Ohhhhh, that IS a positive, isn’t it? The more of them dirty ragheads who get displaced the better, right, Doris?
By the way Doris, have you seen the latest Bush approval ratings?
Hi Doris
good to see you back. Happy New Year
Not sure what history books Shirin reads (other than her holy Koran), winners never pay reparations, losers do.
It is show and tell time. I àsked you to name a book that you have read.
You might find AJP Taylor “Origins of the the Second World War” a good guide to what happens when losers have to pay reparations to the victors.
The Greeks have some good parables you can learn from.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon's_teeth_(mythology)
That is why it is aptly named the Naqba.
Hi Shirin
I was reading the Bee sura (An Nahl) last Spring as I was driving through the countryside near here and I thought it the most marvellously beautiful poetry aprticularly for Spring.
What benevolence, what reassurance.
It reminded me greatly of Manley Hopkins poem Pied Beauty
http://www.bartleby.com/122/13.html
Doris,
Since you don’t like Shirin’s type of history, I can’t help but wonder if this is what you have been reading.
http://www.amazon.com/Mein-Kampf-Adolf-Hitler/dp/B000FOOUP2/sr=8-2/qid=1168419520/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/105-9033848-4823633?ie=UTF8&s=books
To set the record straight: I don’t agree with Shirin. She should not reason with you. It has been demonstrated extensively in psychiatric research that an appeal to reason is bound to fail in patients whose basic thought process is disrupted. All they hear are “the voices” in their heads, and an absolute and striking lack of empathy renders them unable to feel and consider the suffering of fellow humans.
By the way, while we are on the topic of mental health, since you mentioned who pays the price for what, why don’t you check out the VA’s PTSD website. Or just walk by the closest VA clinic; I bet you there’s one a few blocks away. More than 20 million combat veterans (not counting all veterans), at least half with some degree of PTSD, a high percentage of them homeless or “socially declining”, an estimated 50,000 with spinal cord injuries … Or, on a lucid day when the voices are not too obtrusive, I suggest a walk on the National Mall, next to a 75 meter black granite wall with tiny little names of teenagers scratched onto it. It can be breathtaking during the cherry blossom season.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/IRIN/3e40b3831bdf753ef8b5bfe95979634b.htm
Doris
winners never pay reparations, losers do.
Actually you may have overlooked the Marshall Plan. This was the creation of the scion of the generation of American of General Officers who emerged during the depression and understood what Franklin Rooseveld did with the New Deal. John Maynard Keynes provided the theoretical justification. George Marshall understood what was needed to rebuild Europe and provided the money to allow it to happen.
The really nice thing about the Marshall Plan and the thing that is credited with its success is that it wasn’t prescriptive. It didn’t tell the countries what to spend the money on. It told finance ministers to come up with a budget and say how much they needed and then get on with it.
Today, the ‘news’ said we may have killed three al Qaeda operatives – by bombing four different villiages in the African brush.
That got me thinking – if al Qaeda types can be in two places at once, what’s to stop them from being in three places at once? how about ten places at once?
I think we had better bomb the whole world just to be sure we got them.
It’s good to have Doris here to remind us how other Americans really think. The other contrarians on this blog are mostly single issue types, who don’t give the full flavor. Reading one of Doris’ posts is a bracing shot in the arm. Sobers you right up.
But Doris, you never responded to my theological question. Are the end times upon us? Are you anticipating the rapture?
Helena
Michael Murray will be able to tell us about his sense of deja vu in this report. No offense man, but you carried an M-16 in the jungle and have the right.
Does anybody else remember JFK announcing the deployment of a few advisors in Vietnam?
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/politics/4461924.html
The next phase once East Africa is in flames will be to move towards the Great Lakes. Gosh they must have had fun writing this scenario.
I wonder can we get to this scenario under the Freedom of Information Act?
Frank, thanks for reminding me of that sura. There is so much beautiful and powerful poetry there really. (Shhhhhh – don’t tell the ummologist. It will shatter her to hear about such things.)