The NYT’s Michael Gordon got an apparent “scoop” yesterday by bring given the text (also here) of a classified memo that Bush’s National Security Advisor, Steve Hadley, wrote on November 8, summing up his evaluation of the Iraqi political scene and in particular the capabilities of Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki.
The evaluation was based on a face-to-face meeting that Hadley had with Maliki in Baghdad October 30, and on briefings he was given by US military leaders in Baghdad. It presumably formed an important part of the briefing package that Bush received prior to his meeting with Maliki in Jordan, which is planned to start within the next couple of hours.
In an accompanying article, Gordon wrote of the Nov. 8 memo that:
- An administration official made a copy of the document available to a New York Times reporter seeking information on the administration’s policy review. The Times read and transcribed the memo.
At one point in the memo’s rambling and often unintentionally hilarious text it says of Maliki:
- His intentions seem good when he talks with Americans, and sensitive reporting suggests he is trying to stand up to the Shia hierarchy and force positive change. But the reality on the streets of Baghdad suggests Maliki is either ignorant of what is going on, misrepresenting his intentions, or that his capabilities are not yet sufficient to turn his good intentions into action.
Someone should of course investigate the nature of the “deal” under which Gordon was shown the text of the memo. Has he become wholly a “useful idiot” for certain factions inside the White House? And if so, which? And in the complex dance of seduction and the exchange of favors that journalism of his kind entails, what did Gordon agree to do for his benefactor inside the White House that “won” him the favor of this leak?
But I’m in no position to investigate those issues further. The text of the memo itself seems, for a number of reasons including the apparently embarrassed reaction to its publication from Tony Snow, to have been “authentic”. (Unlike, perhaps, the report that Michael Gordon and Dexter Filkins published yesterday to the effect that one of their Iraqi reporters last summer interviewed a “mid-level Mahdi Army commander who told him that his militia had sent 300 fighters to Lebanon to fight alongside Hezbollah. Yesterday, I wrote that that piece of reporting had had some real credibility… But now, who knows? Maybe that was a constructed or exaggerated “quid” in return for the “quo” of the Hadley memo leaking? Obviously, I don’t know.)
So anyway, do go and read the memo. It is written in the earnest style of someone still struggling to understand the realities of Iraqi society and politics as well as the “responsibilities” of a distant imperial power. It is mind-bogglingly formless and repetitive, and reveals a mind reduced to clutching wildly at any straw that’s available.
Here are some of the aspects of it I find most revealing:
(1) Hadley evidently judged, as of Nov 8, that US Ambassador Zal Khalilzad was doing a lousy job: “We should be willing to… Encourage Zal [Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador] to move into the background and let Maliki take more credit for positive developments…” Guess what, today the WaPo’s Al Kamen reported the rumor that Khalilzad will shortly be moved from Baghdad, and his place there will be taken by yet another US viceroy– this time, Ryan Crocker, currently Ambassador to Pakistan…
(2) It spoke frankly about the existence of “the current four-brigade gap in Baghdad”.
(3) There are some passages that explicitly urge that the US should pay Maliki off with hard cash if he goes along with the Bushites’ scheme… The US should, Hadley writes, “Consider monetary support to moderate groups that have been seeking to break with larger, more sectarian parties, as well as to support Maliki himself as he declares himself the leader of his bloc and risks his position within Dawa and the Sadrists; and Provide Maliki with more resources to help build a nonsectarian national movement… ”
… Well, I guess these kinds of thing go on all the time in the conduct of internatinal affairs. But it is really depressing to see not only how bullying and imperialistic this top-level adviser is trying to be, but also how very clueless and intellectually bankrupt he is. This makes the situation even more dangerous.
Helena, I saw the leaked Hadley memo in the NYT. The more fundamental questions about overall approach aside, the assumptions about Shiite–Sunni relations in the document are worrying too. Even if they should manage to achieve temporary improvement in the security situation, Washington probably won’t be able to make much headway towards a lasting compromise with the Sunnis unless they manage to get SCIRI to back down from some of its radical federalism ideas. This appears to be a major problem in US policy-making in Iraq – i.e. they still seem to believe that the Sunnis can be prodded into enthusiasm for federalism, and that they will ultimately crave some kind of federal symmetry. In reality, representative Sunnis want its reversal south of Kurdistan, or, at least, a guarantee for a non-sectarian implementation, for instance by transforming existing governorates to regions. There are plenty of Shiites who are prepared to back this sort of policy, for instance Fadila, independents, Daawa (who in this memo are summarily and en bloc dismissed as “conspiratorial”) and probably several “civilian” Sadrists who may be unenthusiastic about the increasing militarisation of their movement.
Other leaked memos have the Pentagram coming up with its own alternative Hobson’s “choices” that will allow Americans to “choose” any dead horse to beat that they want, just as long as they pick the only one lying dead just inside the door to the stable. So look for Deputy Dubya to go “big” and/or “long” in Iraq, staying the curse for the next six critical months with the tipping point turning the corner connecting dots with the ink stains on the flypaper dominoes in the tunnel at the end of the light
Helena,
I think US trying to pump Al-Maliki to be the new dictators in Iraq replacing Saddam, but the new one obeys and salve to US and loyal to them.
I think this all the story from the memo and all the text reading behind the lines.
Some recent talk and worlds related to Al-Maliki from inside Iraq he is really looking not helpful and he ignorant just last week with his visit to Sadar City, he was thrown by stones and ugly shouting of his leadership, this in dominantly Shia’at area and very poor and loyal to Moqtada even these guys not accepting him imagine the reset of Iraqi what they think about him.
I doubt he will be the horse that US will be guided to get out of the chaos there.
One more thing here US like to hear what she likes and Al-Maliki I think he doing so but this not can work all the bubbly roads
Thanks Mystique to let us know you are there and bloging. Wish you all the best
But I have one question if you don’t mind to answer, Are you in any way related or have relatives to the Royal Saudi family?!
I just read where the Bad Puppet Maliki cancelled his latest short-order “meeting” with Deputy Dubya Bush amid leaked memos from American National Security officials suspiciously circulating Ngo-Dinh-Diem-type coup rumors in America’s (and therefore the world’s) largest government mouthpiece newspapers. I thought of writing a poem about the transparently humiliating episode, but then realized that I already had done so earlier this year. As Frances Fitzgerald said somewhere in “Fire in the Lake: the Vietnamese and the Americans in Vietnam,” the longer a war goes on, sooner or later it can only begin and continue to repeat itself. Most definitely so. Hence:
“Boobie Short-Order Prime Ministers”
George summoned their prime minister
To take a conference call
A “sovereign” for two years now
George really had a ball
In using him for wallpaper
Which really took some gall
Inside the Green Zone Castle where
The puppets spend their day
The visiting American
Was questioned in this way:
“How would you like your PM, sir?”
And George said: “Right away!”
“I’ve had a lot of practice at
This poodle thing, you know.
Just ask the British Tony Blair
Whom I have kept in tow
So long that his own parliament
Would like him now to go.”
Those new Iraqi ministers
Who sometimes come to work
Through checkpoint mazes mostly manned
By some young GI jerk
Have learned that we will treat them like
A fast-food counter clerk
“We’ve got ’em by the short hairs now,”
The short-haired George let slip
“We come and go just when we please
And don’t take any lip
From ‘sovereigns’ who need to know
Few details of our trip.”
By this disdain George clearly showed
A fundamental knack
For treating the entire world
To spectacles that lack
The least regard for protocol:
For who respects a flack?
Of course the point at issue had
Just this insult to show
To fanboy fascists rapt at home
Before the TV’s glow
Who thrilled as George’s posing made
Their little weenies grow
Just like the days of Nguyen Kao Ky
And Ngo Dinh Diem who
Preceded in a puppet show
The stalwart Nguyen Van Thieu:
Parades of puppet “presidents”
Humiliated, too
But disrespected puppets have
A way of getting back
At puerile puppeteers who think
Their strings contain no slack
They simply lay down on the job
Or else join the attack
Michael Murry, “The Misfortune Teller,” Copyright 2006
Here is where Hadley reveals the key step Maliki must take if he wants to keep his position (and his life):
“Declare that Iraq will support the renewal of the U.N. mandate for multinational forces and will seek, as appropriate, to address bilateral issues with the United States through a SOFA [status of forces agreement] to be negotiated over the next year;”
He can’t do this of course, so he is toast.
Bush/ Maliki meeting cancelled!! Why may be ‘Hadley memo’ on Maliki?
Wonder what’s going on what next, is it to soften relation with Jordanian’s King Abdullah who alarming of Shia’at Crescent?
John C.
Declare that Iraq will support the renewal of the U.N. mandate for multinational forces
Security Council Extends Mandate in Iraq
http://a.abcnews.com/International/wireStory?id=2683040
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, center, visits Sadr City, a Shiite area in Baghdad, Iraq, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2006, two days after series of explosions killed more than 200 residents. Al-Maliki is facing opposition from both sides as he works to halt his nation’s slide into an all-out civil war, but the White House said Saturday that despite threats from Shiite and Sunni Arab leaders, he is not expected to cancel his trip to Amman, Jordan, to meet President Bush on Wednesday and Thursday. (AP Photo/Karim Kadim)
Look to Maliki face will tell you how loved and supported by by Iraqis in Sadar city ……
“‘Declare that Iraq will support the renewal of the U.N. mandate for multinational forces…’
He can’t do this of course, so he is toast.”
Apparently he already has done it. According to Ra’ed Jarrar the renewal of the U.N. mandate is a done deal, signed, sealed, and delivered by Maliki completely behind the backs – that is, without the knowledge of – the so-called parliament. According to Ra’ed the so-called Parliamentarians had no clue, and were still busily debating the issue.
It also looks like the so-called unity make-believe government is falling apart. One of the secular parties has withdrawn, as has Muqtada Sadr’s party, and it looks like other secular, Sunni, and Shi`a parties are set to withdraw in the next day or two.
OK Salah & Shirin, that’s part of the equation. But the SOFA is even more important. This would be the agreement that legitimizes the “enduring bases” plus waives the sovereign right of the Iraqi people to take legal action against the US for its many depredations. If Maliki signed off on that, it would be his death warrant. If he doesn’t, same thing. I feel for the guy.
If Maliki signed off on that, it would be his death warrant. If he doesn’t, same thing.
John C. with all due respect of your view and Helena when talking about Maliki, as a guy he have the will and the ability to make discission or he is discission maker in Iraq, I think this quite frankly he is not more than US Puppet he have no whatsoever the power and control what discissions should be taken in any Iraqi internal/external polices.
Most US media trying to pumped him to be regarded as legitimate Iraqi PM he is in control who have the power to make discissions this is a delusional way that the West/US trying to colour him, but for the majority of Iraqis and the Arabs in the region I have no doubt that they think differently from what your thinking.
Moreover if he looks he hold the power and control all the strings in Iraq polices we will see him more confidant and more open so far he is hiding in Green Zone, not more that another character sailing in US marsh inside Iraq.
John C., if Maliki is capable of unilaterally renewing the “U.N. mandate” for continued occupation of Iraq, and of doing so without so much as informing the so-called parliament, then he is also capable of unilaterally signing off on whatever the Americans demand he sign of on, including a SOFA dictated by the Americans.
And don’t waste your sympathy on this guy. He is no better than any of the other crass opportunists who promote their own interests above those of the country and its people by collaborating with a vicious and brutal enemy. He has never and will never act in the interests of Iraq and its people. He doesn’t care any more about them than George Bush does. There is no way he or anyone else can have ever believed the Americans are interested in anything but domination. He is there because he was acceptable to the American comquerors and he will stay there only as long as he remains acceptable to the American conquerors, he knew that from the beginning, and he knows it now.