White House nixing Iraqi partition

The pressure has been growing on Pres. Bush to “do something” to reassure Americans– and in particular, the many millions of Republican voters who are currently disaffected, dubious, and distinctly unmotivated to vote GOP on November 7– that he “has a plan” to deal with the still-unraveling debacle in Iraq.
The Prez looks like a deer caught between two headlights: there’s the side of him that wants to repeat the well-worn mantra of “Stay the course” and the side of him that now wants to say “Okay, folks, I’m on top of this; I know how to be flexible and figure out new tactics to deal with evolving situations…”
You can practically see the two memes battling within him. The President “at war” (with himself.) Not a reassuring sight.
Today he did three things. As Reuters tells us here, he,

    said on Friday he will resist election-year pressure for a major shift in strategy in Iraq, despite growing doubts among Americans and anxiety over the war among Republican lawmakers.
    “Our goal in Iraq is clear and it’s unchanging,” Bush told Republican loyalists, denouncing Democrats who want a course correction as supporting a “doubt and defeat” approach.

He met (for a full half hour!) with Centcom head Gen. John Abizaid, the man responsible for US military operations in the portion of the world that includes both Iraq and Afghahistan. A follow-up meeting is planned for tomorrow, at which,

    Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and top White House officials will meet U.S. military officials in Iraq for a long-scheduled videoconference. Abizaid will be a key presenter at that meeting, [White House spokeswoman Dana] Perino said..

Note the stress that Ms. Perino felt she needed to place on the fact that this is a “long-scheduled” meeting. What, you think a “crisis-response” meeting might actually be more appropriate at the end of a week that has been this much disastrous for the US military in Baghdad? No, no! It’ll just be “business as usual” there in the Bush White House…
(I am not reassured. And I doubt if many Republican congressional candidates are either… )
Okay, that’s two things the Prez did today in response to the Iraq crisis. The third was to have press spokeman Tony Snow (aka “the President’s attempt at having a brain”) go out and try to explain the President’s Iraq policy to the public. Actually, everyone ought to go and read that White House spinscript there. Especially portions like this sophomoric piece of strategy-babble:

    The President understands the difficulty in a time of war. And he also understands that what you do is you adjust tactically. I was talking today with General Caldwell, and the way he describes it, the military term of art is you “work the plan.” And if things are not achieving the objectives as you wish, you adjust and you work the plan. And he says they’re continuing to work the plan in Baghdad and elsewhere. Those are the kinds of tactical adjustments…

But the most interesting part of the transcript is what comes right after that:

    What the President has made pretty clear is that there are a handful of things that he has ruled out. He is eager to hear about other ideas; but leaving is not going to work, and partition is simply off the table.

In-ter-est-ing… Now I can see why in the run-up to an election Bush would want to slam the idea of “leaving” Iraq. Especially after he’s just criticized the Democrats for being the party of “cut and run”– or “doubt and defeat”, or even worse, as Snow put it there, the party of “walk and talk”, that is, a party that not only leaves Iraq but wants to talk to the Iranians while doing so (!) (Not that many Dems are, actually, advocating that right now. It’s mainly Republican consigliere James Baker who has been raising that as an idea so far. And honestly, good for him.)
But why is Bush/Snow so eager to slam the idea of partition?
I can see no possible party-political benefit in being as definitive about this as Snow (and the president) have been… So maybe they are really serious about it?
More from Snow’s press conference on this:

    Q On the partition question, you said yesterday it was a non-starter; today you said the President doesn’t want to think about it. You have prominent Republicans like Senator Hutchison and Senator Santorum saying that it should be looked at. Why does the administration —
    MR. SNOW: It has been looked at. It has been looked at.
    Q Why is it not — why is it a non-starter?
    MR. SNOW: It’s a non-starter because you don’t want to recreate the Balkans. What you have is — within Iraq there is a sense of national identity, and it was expressed at considerable risk by 12 million Iraqis last year. They made it clear that they consider themselves part of a nation. And the idea of breaking them into pieces raises the prospect in the south that you’re going to have pressure from Iran on the largely Shia south; you’re going to have difficulties in the north with the Kurds, with the Turks and the Syrians, who are worried about a greater Kurdistan; and then if you have in the middle a Sunni population that has been cut out of the prosperity by oil to the north and south, you have a recipe for a tinderbox…

I do think he’s trying to get a serious message out there– in particular, to the Iraqi Kurds, who have been working very hard, since 1991, not only to partition Iraq but also to secure Washington’s support for that policy. And the Kurds have plenty of (guilt-ridden) allies within the US political system for that.
So why does Bush seem to be so adamantly opposed to partition at this point?
I think it may be part of the slow process by which he is– oh so gradually!– coming to terms with reality in Iraq.
Look at it this way. Partition of nations has been either part of US policy or a quite acceptable fall-back option in a number of conflicts the US has gotten involved in since WW2. From SKorea to Germany to Vietnam, the US has been quite happy to go along with the partitioning of nations– even in cases where the “will of the people” was quite clearly in favor of national unity.
But in all those earlier cases, the “pro-US” fragment of the nation that was thus partitioned was directly connected to the US’s existing global military supply lines. A landlocked Kurdistan, by contrast, would be more like a landlocked West Berlin during the various Berlin crises from 1948 on than it would be like, say, West Germany or South Korea. A partitioned, quasi-“independent” Kurdistan would have no natural allies among its neighbors, and indeed, mught have to be “sustained” by the US in the midst of a completely engulfing sea of anti-Kurd hostility. Resupplying it would be a logistical challenge that would dwarf the Berlin Airlift… And for what? At least West Berlin played an important role in the US’s big struggle of that era, against the Soviet Union. But what strategic value would a US-dependent Kurdistan have?
If Kurdistan was in southern Iraq, next to the Gulf and next to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, Bush and Snow might be speaking very differently about the prospect of partition in Iraq… (But that spot is already taken– by a social/political grouping that is very, very different from the Kurds.)
So I think what we’re seeing now, as the Bushites start to face up to the idea of some truly momentous decisions having to be made regarding Iraq, is the White House telling the Kurds as plainly as it can that yes, once again, as in 1975 and as in 1991, Washington is going to be letting them down. (In 1975, it was Kissinger who did it, too.)
The Iraqi Kurdish leaders are not particularly impressive as exemplars of democratic practice (to say the least!) But they are a wily bunch of guys who’ve survived in their part of the world for many decades now. At this point, they may well revert to some of their earlier alliances there– with Syria, with Iran– or who knows, even perhaps with some of the ethnic-Arab forces in Iraq.
As I said, interesting days.

3 thoughts on “White House nixing Iraqi partition”

  1. Helena
    You might find this interesting from today’s Guardian discussing the options.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1928058,00.html
    What is interesting is to see that the Brits have been contributing to the ISG. (see companion article)
    I expect you can find more discussion of the detail of the options on Mr Bakers blog with contributions from Don, Ehud, Iyad, Dick, Tony and Barney.

  2. 911 JUDGMENT of GOD
    Does anyone doubt 911 as the JUDGMENT of GOD upon AMERICA, and the NATIONS of the WORLD? Read on now; writes Ivor Manuel, Branch of the Lord.
    Yesterday 10/22/06 Associated Press published the following story: NEW YORK – Searchers found more bones believed to belong to Sept. 11 World Trade Center attack victims Sunday in manholes and utility areas, areas that apparently were overlooked years ago…
    Utility and city officials have excavated more than five hundred areas, yielding more than 100 pieces of human remains, since construction workers discovered bones earlier in the week in a manhole excavated as part of work in a transit hub…
    The medical examiner’s office said 18 pieces of remains were found Sunday. The bones found thus far range from tiny fragments to recognizable bones from the sculls, torso, feet and hands. Some are as large as whole arms and legs bones…
    Now read the WORD of the LORD by Prophet ISAIAH chapter 34: 1, 2, 3, 4. For the LORD shall accomplish His purpose according to the WORD by His prophets; writes Ivor Manuel.
    “Come near, ye nations, to hear; and hearken ye people; let the Earth hear, and all that is therein; the World and all things that come forth of it. For the indignation of the LORD is upon all nations, and His fury upon all their ARMIES; He hath utterly destroyed them; He has delivered them to the slaughter. THEIR SLAIN also SHALL BE CAST OUT, and THEIR STINK SHALL COME UP OUT of their CARCASES, and the MOUNTAINS SHALL BE MELTED (mountains in Afghanistan) with their BLOOD. And all the Host of Heaven shall be dissolved, and the Heavens shall be rolled together as (Tsunami, Earthquakes and Hurricanes) a scroll; and all their entire host (idols of America and the World) shall fall down, as the leaf falleth off from the vine, and as a falling fig from the fig tree.”
    Now, read the WORD of the LORD given to Ivor Manuel prophet, and published before the Presidential elections of 2004, in his Web Page named http://www.Aleuzenev.com
    End of page 4 and part of page 5 of 22 pages:
    Then from there; JESUS the son of man; The MESSIAH SON of GOD; The HIGHEST PRIEST and PROPHET of the prophets; ALEUZENEV; HIS NEW NAME (Revelation 3:12); Our HEAVENLY BROTHER whom is set down with OUR FATHER in HIS THRONE; spoke saying to HIS brother: “Write all that I AM saying in your ears; that MY sheep may read and understand MY FATHER’S WORD, and also hear MY VOICE in their ears; to understand “The COVENANT of PEACE and ETERNAL LIFE.” And HIS prophet opened the LORD’S BOOK of REVELATION given to HIS servant; Saint JOHN THE DIVINE 2:23 and read HIS Written WORDS: “And I will kill her children with death [JEZEBEL’S children, those who idolized their own FREDOM, Statue of Liberty, Goddess of Liberties; worshipers of Baal god of material images from the church of THYATIRA]; and all the churches shall know that I AM He whom searches the rains and the hearts: and I will give unto every one of you according to your Works.”
    Thereon, the prophet recalled December of 1998; after President Clinton had been impeached by the House of Representatives, and before the Senate of the United States would vote on February 12, 1999, Year of Our LORD, to either remove or leave the President in office. The following testimony of JESUS was dictated to HIS brother Ivor Manuel (prodigal son); by HIM; The SPIRIT of PROPHESY. The testimony was published in a tourist magazine named ORIENTATION; and was read by people all over the World visiting Orlando; and few shall know, they were blessed with this knowledge during their visit to Florida. It was titled, “KING and COURT vs. the people;” and it is written: “Raising the consciousness of the planet is the job of the King (Establish Morality and Peace by the WORD of GOD), but the King is a liar (then, President Bill Clinton) and teaches immorality and adultery to the people. The King has broken The Law of the land and that of Heaven. He has lied to his people and murdered his brothers [lies about adultery and bombing of Baghdad during Ramadan] as they prayed. The House has judge the King and found him guilty (Impeachment by the House), but the King and his court (The President and Senators that voted against his Impeachment) believe he is above The Law. The King is arrogant, his court is in darkness and they blind the people with the veil of money and idolatry to the host of impurity. The speaker of the House has shown the way and has asked the King to follow in the way of constriction (resign as President), but the King and his court will not yield to the wisdom of repentance. Therefore the people (common people must raise a voice against the President and the Congress) must raise the consciousness of the King and his court. The people who say: “In GOD we TRUST,” must follow The Consciousness of Light (CHRIST’S CONSCIOUSNESS) and punish the King. If the people fail to fire (Impeach the President) the King, they will bring GREAT CONDEMNATION UPON the LAND of AMERICA.”
    It was signed, prophet for the new millennium. Then he (Ivor Manuel prophet) recalled that February 12 of 1999 Year of Our LORD came; which is also his birthday as well. On that day, the Senate voted to leave the President in office. Then on April 20th 1999, the day of the prophet’s 25th wedding anniversary, while US. Jet-fighters where bombing Kosovo; The LORD began to pass through the land of America; Littleton, Chicago, Atlanta, etc; and smite the children of the Christian nation, according to “The WORKS” the leaders of America have Glorified; “THE TEACHINGS of WAR [Kosovo then, now Afghanistan and Iraq] and VIOLENCE”, just as The LORD had prophesized it would happened in HIS BOOK of REVELATION chapter 2: 23; and had told HIS prophet to warn the nation before February 12 of 1999, which he did accordingly. “I pray for you to understand in The LIGHT”, says Ivor Manuel.
    Today, October 23, 2006, the WORD of the LORD remains with HIS JUDGMENT and CONDEMNATION upon the LAND of AMERICA; unless the people REPENT and IMPEACH President George W. Bush; thus says The LORD, and writes His prophet Ivor Manuel; the children of America are dying, the poor has been being sacrifice because of his taste for Violence, his vision of Peace is a “Covenant with Death.”
    “And He said unto me, THOU MUST PROPHESY again BEFORE MANY PEOPLES and NATIONS, and TONGUES, and KINGS.” Revelation 10:11
    And I praise Him: ALELUYA! AMEN! ALEUZENEV! Vengan mis hermanos Judios (Los Aztecas and all Immigrants) para ALEUZENEV! I pray for you and Peace for the World, Ivor Manuel prophet, the pillar branch of the Lord.

  3. 911 JUDGMENT of GOD
    Does anyone doubt 911 as the JUDGMENT of GOD upon AMERICA, and the NATIONS of the WORLD? Read on now; writes Ivor Manuel, Branch of the Lord.
    Yesterday 10/22/06 Associated Press published the following story: NEW YORK – Searchers found more bones believed to belong to Sept. 11 World Trade Center attack victims Sunday in manholes and utility areas, areas that apparently were overlooked years ago…
    Utility and city officials have excavated more than five hundred areas, yielding more than 100 pieces of human remains, since construction workers discovered bones earlier in the week in a manhole excavated as part of work in a transit hub…
    The medical examiner’s office said 18 pieces of remains were found Sunday. The bones found thus far range from tiny fragments to recognizable bones from the sculls, torso, feet and hands. Some are as large as whole arms and legs bones…
    Now read the WORD of the LORD by Prophet ISAIAH chapter 34: 1, 2, 3, 4. For the LORD shall accomplish His purpose according to the WORD by His prophets; writes Ivor Manuel.
    “Come near, ye nations, to hear; and hearken ye people; let the Earth hear, and all that is therein; the World and all things that come forth of it. For the indignation of the LORD is upon all nations, and His fury upon all their ARMIES; He hath utterly destroyed them; He has delivered them to the slaughter. THEIR SLAIN also SHALL BE CAST OUT, and THEIR STINK SHALL COME UP OUT of their CARCASES, and the MOUNTAINS SHALL BE MELTED (mountains in Afghanistan) with their BLOOD. And all the Host of Heaven shall be dissolved, and the Heavens shall be rolled together as (Tsunami, Earthquakes and Hurricanes) a scroll; and all their entire host (idols of America and the World) shall fall down, as the leaf falleth off from the vine, and as a falling fig from the fig tree.”
    Now, read the WORD of the LORD given to Ivor Manuel prophet, and published before the Presidential elections of 2004, in his Web Page named http://www.Aleuzenev.com
    End of page 4 and part of page 5 of 22 pages:
    Then from there; JESUS the son of man; The MESSIAH SON of GOD; The HIGHEST PRIEST and PROPHET of the prophets; ALEUZENEV; HIS NEW NAME (Revelation 3:12); Our HEAVENLY BROTHER whom is set down with OUR FATHER in HIS THRONE; spoke saying to HIS brother: “Write all that I AM saying in your ears; that MY sheep may read and understand MY FATHER’S WORD, and also hear MY VOICE in their ears; to understand “The COVENANT of PEACE and ETERNAL LIFE.” And HIS prophet opened the LORD’S BOOK of REVELATION given to HIS servant; Saint JOHN THE DIVINE 2:23 and read HIS Written WORDS: “And I will kill her children with death [JEZEBEL’S children, those who idolized their own FREDOM, Statue of Liberty, Goddess of Liberties; worshipers of Baal god of material images from the church of THYATIRA]; and all the churches shall know that I AM He whom searches the rains and the hearts: and I will give unto every one of you according to your Works.”
    Thereon, the prophet recalled December of 1998; after President Clinton had been impeached by the House of Representatives, and before the Senate of the United States would vote on February 12, 1999, Year of Our LORD, to either remove or leave the President in office. The following testimony of JESUS was dictated to HIS brother Ivor Manuel (prodigal son); by HIM; The SPIRIT of PROPHESY. The testimony was published in a tourist magazine named ORIENTATION; and was read by people all over the World visiting Orlando; and few shall know, they were blessed with this knowledge during their visit to Florida. It was titled, “KING and COURT vs. the people;” and it is written: “Raising the consciousness of the planet is the job of the King (Establish Morality and Peace by the WORD of GOD), but the King is a liar (then, President Bill Clinton) and teaches immorality and adultery to the people. The King has broken The Law of the land and that of Heaven. He has lied to his people and murdered his brothers [lies about adultery and bombing of Baghdad during Ramadan] as they prayed. The House has judge the King and found him guilty (Impeachment by the House), but the King and his court (The President and Senators that voted against his Impeachment) believe he is above The Law. The King is arrogant, his court is in darkness and they blind the people with the veil of money and idolatry to the host of impurity. The speaker of the House has shown the way and has asked the King to follow in the way of constriction (resign as President), but the King and his court will not yield to the wisdom of repentance. Therefore the people (common people must raise a voice against the President and the Congress) must raise the consciousness of the King and his court. The people who say: “In GOD we TRUST,” must follow The Consciousness of Light (CHRIST’S CONSCIOUSNESS) and punish the King. If the people fail to fire (Impeach the President) the King, they will bring GREAT CONDEMNATION UPON the LAND of AMERICA.”
    It was signed, prophet for the new millennium. Then he (Ivor Manuel prophet) recalled that February 12 of 1999 Year of Our LORD came; which is also his birthday as well. On that day, the Senate voted to leave the President in office. Then on April 20th 1999, the day of the prophet’s 25th wedding anniversary, while US. Jet-fighters where bombing Kosovo; The LORD began to pass through the land of America; Littleton, Chicago, Atlanta, etc; and smite the children of the Christian nation, according to “The WORKS” the leaders of America have Glorified; “THE TEACHINGS of WAR [Kosovo then, now Afghanistan and Iraq] and VIOLENCE”, just as The LORD had prophesized it would happened in HIS BOOK of REVELATION chapter 2: 23; and had told HIS prophet to warn the nation before February 12 of 1999, which he did accordingly. “I pray for you to understand in The LIGHT”, says Ivor Manuel.
    Today, October 23, 2006, the WORD of the LORD remains with HIS JUDGMENT and CONDEMNATION upon the LAND of AMERICA; unless the people REPENT and IMPEACH President George W. Bush; thus says The LORD, and writes His prophet Ivor Manuel; the children of America are dying, the poor has been being sacrifice because of his taste for Violence, his vision of Peace is a “Covenant with Death.”
    “And He said unto me, THOU MUST PROPHESY again BEFORE MANY PEOPLES and NATIONS, and TONGUES, and KINGS.” Revelation 10:11
    And I praise Him: ALELUYA! AMEN! ALEUZENEV! Vengan mis hermanos Judios (Los Aztecas and all Immigrants) para ALEUZENEV! I pray for you and Peace for the World, Ivor Manuel prophet, the pillar branch of the Lord.

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