So here’s what’s happened so far today re the Iraqi constitutional referendum:
- 1. At or before 2 p.m. today London time (9 a.m. US Eastern Time) — a bare 18 hours or so after the polls had closed in Iraq– Condoleezza Rice was able, miraculously, to “call” the results in London. What an amazingly talented woman! To think that she could coordinate the collection, counting, verifying, and announcing of the results of a poll involving so many millions of far-flung voters, in such a short space of time! What a testimony to this woman’s truly extraordinary powers!!! (Heavy irony alert.)
(By the way, did I mention that Rice told the breathlessly waiting world that the draft constitution has “probably passed”?)
2. U.N. elections chief Carina Perelli (who by the way is in all kinds of her own professional trouble over there at the UN, and who is thus in a fairly weak position in global politics) “stressed that final results were still days away and any early estimates were “impressionistic”. And–
3. President Bush hailed the vote as a victory for “opponents of terrorism”: “The vote today in Iraq is in stark contrast to the attitude, the philosophy and strategy of al-Qaida, their terrorist friends and killers,” Bush said.
As we should all know by now, in order to defeat the draft constitution, its opponents needed two-thirds of the voters in at least three of Iraq’s 18 provinces to vote “No.”
The “announcements” by Rice–and before her, Amb. Khalilzad and Iraqi transitional Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari– that hailed the defeat of the No vote apparently conceded that the No-voters had won the required vote in Al-Anbar and Salah ad-Din provinces. But they “believed”(Rice) or “guessed” (Zebari) that the No campaign had failed to win that threshhold anywhere else, including in Ninawa, which had been thought of as the site of a possible/probable No victory.
Oh but wait, here’s another part of that AP report from Baghdad (dateline around 2 p.m. Sunday, US Eastern Time):
- … Some ballot boxes were still making their way to counting centers in the provinces. Provincial election workers were adding up the paper ballots, which will be sent to the counting center in Baghdad’s Green Zone for another check to reach the final, certified result.
So all that business about “guessing” and “believeing” that there’s a victory for the Yesses is based on– ? Just about nothing, if they haven’t even finished hauling all the ballot boxes in for the counting of the paper ballots yet, right?
Small surprise, therefore, that AP’s Sameer Yacoub was also reporting this:
- Some Sunni Arab leaders of the “no” campaign decried the reported results and insisted their figures showed the constitution’s defeat, though they did not cite exact numbers. Some accused the United States of interfering in the results.
“We are warning of acts of fraud. This might lead to civil disobedience if there is fraud,” said Saleh al-Mutlaq, head of the National Dialogue Council “We consider that Rice’s statement is pressure on the Independent Election Commission to pass the draft.”
It is, anyway, really outrageous that Rice and Bush should have hurried in so unseemly (and mendacious) a manner to be the the ones to “announce” the result of the referendum. It seems almost like they wanted large portions of the Sunni population to be angry both with them and with thosee Kurds and Shiites who will take everything they want from the new “constitution” and start running with it…
- Addendum, Sunday 4 p.m.: I just had time to give this latest analysis from Gilbert Achcar a quick read. It confirms what I wrote here and elsewhere last week about the effect of Kalilzad’s last-minute intervention having been to sow some confusion and dissension in Sunni ranks in Iraq.
The latter third of Gilbert’s piece looks particularly interesting: It is his translation of “an analysis of the referendum in the Sunni provinces by an insider Sunni source, published on the evening of Saturday October 15 after the end of the vote.” This source, Mufakkirat al-Islam wrote:
- Sheikh Abdul-Sattar Muhammad, one of the imams and preachers of Fallujah, said that al-Qaida’s organization made a huge error in preventing the people by threats and intimidations to take part in the vote, adding that al-Qaida contributed with other groups to the marginalization of the Sunnis and their impotence in the face of Shiites, Kurds and secular parties… He said also that if al-Qaida’s elements had let the people vote, the constitution would have been rejected by 100% of Sunnis and would have been aborted, while it would have been proved that Sunnis are not a minority in Iraq…
Whereas the Islamic Party has deliberately contributed in splitting the votes of the Sunnis in calling for a “yes” vote, Zarqawi has also given a gift to the occupation and the Safawi [a pejorative formula used in Sunni circles to designate the Shiites deemed to be “Iranian agents”] followers of Sistani by contributing unknowingly, through their threats to the voters, to the neutralization of the Sunni votes opposed to this constitution, under which the Iraqis may have to live miserably for a long period…
The question now in Iraq is when will al-Qaida’s organization stop allowing the assassination of Muslims under various pretexts, after the murder of some Sunnis in Ramadi today because they took part in the vote, and, before that, the authorization to kill members of the Islamic Party. Before that also al-Qaida’s followers turned their weapons against members of other armed groups during the second siege of Fallujah under the pretext that they ought to accept Zarqawi’s leadership after Usama bin Laden’s appeal to this end. This attitude weakened the ranks of the resistance and allowed US occupation forces to execute their well-known offensive in the southern part of Fallujah…
This is, it seems to me (HC), very revealing stuff. The people associated with Mufakkirat al-Islam are prepared to criticize Al-Qaeda even quite openly in this medium… If the Americans and their present Iraqi proteges had been prepared to engage a broader spectrum of Iraqi Sunnis in serious discussions about the governance of the country, then they might have had a good chance of increasing this rift between Sunni-Iraqi nationalists and the agents of Al-Qaeda. As it is, those nationalists whose views were represented by Mufakkirat al-Islam look as though the will continue to be opposed to the new order that they feel is being imposed on them…
As reported in the Los Angeles Times, Zalmay Khalilzad, in 2004 as U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, was reported to have “requested” candidates to withdraw from the Afghan election, attempting to bribe them with cabinet positions. The LA times mentioned several candidates and their staff were “angry over what many Afghans see as foreign interference that could undermine the shaky foundations of a democracy the U.S. promised to build.”
I wonder if we will eventually hear of similar stories of bribes being offer to the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party who were “persuaded” to endorse the Iraqi constitution at the last minute.
I noticed Talabani jumped the gun and declared official the elections scheduled for December. I thought it would take three days to count the votes!
And what about the prison vote? No monitors in the hoosegow and they’re all Sunnis (20 thousand +) alleged to be terrorists. I wonder if they got a Get Out of Jail Free card for voting “yes”?
We’ll never know.
Sure, the Bush and Rice announcements are unseemly. But really, what are we to expect of people who invaded someone else’s country just because they thought it would be easy?
Yoo-hoo! Helena! The new Asterix adventure is out. And guess who is threatening the forests of Amorica this time?? George W. Bush and Arnold Schwartzenegger!
I think they’re going to be on the receiving end of some baffes!
Cheers,
Nur!
RE: NO vote.
Some figure are in from Reuters:
ANBAR: 90% voter turnout, 99% voting “no”.
NINEVEH: of 778,000 votes cast: 424,000 “no”; 353,000 “yes”. [reports of ballot box stuffing]
SALAHADDIN: 80% voter turnout, 70% voting “no”.
No figures from Baghdad and Diyala yet.
SALAHADDIN: 80% voter turnout, 70% voting “no”.
Al-Firat, an Iranian channel, is reporting that instead of voting “no,” Salahadin province, containing Tikrit, voted 75 percent in favor of the constitution. If that result turns out to be true, there will be no doubt the vote was fixed, and in a stupidly clumsy manner.”
Do any body think these results had credible numbers, I don’t, do you?
All this just a staged event to enjoying GWB Democracy in Iraq Adventure
ANBAR: 90% voter turnout, 99% voting “no”.
Voters from Al Qae’em, Haditha, Rawa, Anna, Heet, asking where are the voting centres, or voting points, no one answer them from “Iraqi forces” or others they back home.
From some Iraqi sources….
“The vote today in Iraq is in stark contrast to the attitude, the philosophy and strategy of al-Qaida, their terrorist friends and killers,” Bush said.
The constitution is a crucial step in Iraq’s transition to democracy after two decades of dictatorship under Saddam. Washington was hoping it would pass so Iraqis can form a legitimate, representative government, tame the insurgency and enable the 150,000 U.S. troops to begin withdrawing. .
Really, you take them home, what about the top US officials who puts 20 years, 10 years…. Till The War against the Terrorists lasting…
The major thing here is Legitimate Representative Government the rest will come to syphone all Iraqi’s assets “legally”………..
On Sunday, U.S. military helicopters, Humvees and armored vehicles were helping transport the last ballot boxes from polling stations to counting centers in the provincial capitals. Those centers were making initial counts, then were to truck the ballots to Baghdad for the final tallying, which was likely to begin on Monday and to last into Tuesday. .
Ha hoooo, these Iraqi killers so nice transferring the voting boxes with honesty and faithfulness to Baghdad!! Any one watch them in they way what they did with the boxes?
But in two other provinces where Sunni Arabs have only slim majorities – Ninevah and Diyala – the “yes” vote won out. .
What’s the expectation? Any one can guess?
From Iraq comments….
“Why should I care? Nothing has changed since we have elected this government: no security, no electricity, no water,” said Saad Ibrahim, a Shiite resident of Baghdad’s Karrada district who passed on voting. “The constitution will not change that. The main issue is not getting this constitution passed, but how to stop terrorism.”
“Whatever happens or will happen in politics has nothing to do with the will of the people. It comes from the political elite who run Iraq along with the Americans out of the Green Zone in Baghdad,” said Zuhair Qassam al-Khashab, a mathematics professor in Mosul who voted “no.” .
sorry the link
Yes Vote Seems Certain in Iraq
Nur al-Cubile states below “NINEVEH: of 778,000 votes cast: 424,000 “no”; 353,000 “yes”.” Fascinating, an earlier count from the AP (via Christopher Allbrittion) gives “yes” with 326,774, with 90,065 voting no. So in the meantime, 335,000 additional no votes have been counted to 8,000 yes votes. Hmmm. Maybe someone realized they overstuffed the ballot box beyond plausibility and tried to counterstuff it.
Meanwhile: “Iraq to audit vote amid fraud allegations” http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9729873/
Sounds like a good idea, guys.
Nur al-Cubile states below “NINEVEH: of 778,000 votes cast: 424,000 “no”; 353,000 “yes”.” Fascinating, an earlier count from the AP (via Christopher Allbrittion) gives “yes” with 326,774 votes, 90,065 voting “no”. So in the meantime, 335,000 additional “no” votes have been counted to 8,000 “yes” votes. Hmmm. Maybe someone realized they overstuffed the ballot box beyond plausibility and tried to counterstuff it.
Meanwhile: “Iraq to audit vote amid fraud allegations” http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9729873/
Sounds like a good idea, guys.
“The American and British governments seem disconnected from the terrible reality of Iraq. Tony Blair says the time scale for withdrawal is “when the job is done.” But stop any Iraqi in the streets of Baghdad and the great majority say the violence will get worse until the US and Britain start to pull out. They say the main catalyst for the Sunni Arab insurrection is the US occupation.”
The Independent, 18 October 2005
Color me naive, but why don’t Iraqis vote yes so that the invader declares victory and leaves, and once gone rescind the constitution and replace it with a better one or with chopped liver if they prefer? Isn’t that less painful than the agonic fragmentation and deterioration of the country?
David
“Color me naive, but why don’t Iraqis vote yes so that the invader declares victory and leaves”
Don’t make me laugh, David. Since when an invader
is going to leave ‘voluntarily’, especially taken into account these billions of barels of oil
lying under their boots ? Maybe I’m too cynical – or too knowledgable about human history (keyword: Greed). C’mon, get real.
Do you know who is Al Zarqawi group, yes these are belive it or not…
“A number of Iraqis apprehended two Americans disguised in Arab dress as they tried to blow up a booby-trapped car in the middle of a residential area in western Baghdad on Tuesday.
“Residents of western Baghdad’s al-Ghazaliyah district told Quds Press that the people had apprehended the Americans as they left their Caprice car near a residential neighborhood in al-Ghazaliyah on Tuesday afternoon (11 October 2005). Local people found they looked suspicious so they detained the men before they could get away. That was when they discovered that they were Americans and called the Iraqi puppet police.”
Americans disguised in Arab Dress captured in the act of setting off a car bomb
so that the invader declares victory and leaves
No…No…No David they will leave because of Birds Flu!! As someone stated…
the agonic fragmentation and deterioration of the country?
Israeli Wish
Andrew,
I do not question your knowledge but an invader might leave when staying is expensive, the chances of rebuilding are low, and their forces needed to deal with emerging threats elsewhere. Maybe you are right an elsewhere is Iran, so they might as well stick around.
David
Salah,
I am sure the Israelis would love to have stable, prosperous, and peaceful neighbors. Judging by Turkey’s desperate effort to integrate with the EU rather than with its Arab neighbors were are not there yet.
Are you questioning Iraq’s deterioration?
David
Americans disguised in Arab Dress captured in the act of setting off a car bomb
With ‘stories’ like this I think Helena should change the name of the blog to ‘Weekly World News.’ salah i think ariel sharon himself was spotted planting bombs in baghdad. i read it on the internet.
Pedro,
salah i think ariel sharon himself was spotted planting bombs in baghdad. i read it on the internet.
Well what about the two Britt’s caught in action? Is this from the internet?
Look there is no doubt US trying to apply A Salvador scenario in Iraq there is evidence their from bringing Negroponte to the some commanders who were involved in the dirty war in Latin America before they are working in Iraq now to do the same thing.
What about Abu Grab is this fake things.
This is the double stranded you guys naturally believe in, when we talk we are not right but when you talk its all right ….when you and others realised that this world now became so small by the internet Thanks to that.
What you saying US is Crystal Clear Power doing a good job this not right you need to take the realty and read the history of the US wars did around the world not just in Iraq.
The other thing, the lies that this war was built on is it fake also?
In same taken, Sharon you mentioned, its clear his involvement in Sabra-Shatila massacre of Palestinians so be rail when you talk.
David
”Turkey’s desperate effort to integrate with the EU rather than with its Arab neighbors were are not there yet.”
Before we jump to the conclusions and judging things now, let see if the west happy to accommodate “Islamic Country” with them, but I would bring your attention to two things about the reality from Turkey
1- The Turks distanced themself from Arab/Islam long time ago when they chose to throughs their natural language and transferred to Latin, which in the Islamic view its some thing regarded as bad as soon as you are not prod and happy to be Muslim and the nations knew that which representing the respect for your believe.
2- In the Trickish parliament last year or before that one of the member not allowed her to wear scarf, is this democracy you believe where is you respects the human without taking the colour Race, and their believes?
The funny story I read it that the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, some journalist asked him about their daughters, he answered they are in Study in US university because they can cover their heads in Turkish university! Is this funny and odd we call this Islamic country where the women not allowed wearing in regards to Islamic dress? Is this you call it the democracy in Turkey?
BTW, David I heard many peoples and also you that Israel the only democracy in ME, you and others denying the democratic Turkey, now I see you put Turkey as democracy example for Arab/ Islamic world, what change, and why?
Thanks Salah for your perspectives on Turkey. I look forward to learning more from you as you are much closer to that subject.
I fully agree with you that Europe is not thrilled about integrating an infinte source of immigrants from an Islamic country into the EU and my bet is that they will drag their feet for decades. Germany has not quite integrated the descendants of the Turkish workforce thay brought in the 70’s, France was clearly opposed to add to the African moslem problem they already have and whose marginalization engendered characters like Mousawi, and the most adamant has been Austria, a xenophobe place if there was ever one with a rich heritage to protect, and a long memory of what happened last time Europe fought the moslem invasion from the south.
Turkey’s distancing from things Arabic may be negative in your eyes, but it is up to them to decide, and it is clear that they gravitate to the peace, stability, and prosperity they see in Europe, and that was my point.
The story about Erdogan’s daughters resonates with what many analysts and moslems have said in the press, that is, that the US may be one of the best places to practice Islam.
Finally, the jury is still out on the feasibility of Arab democracies, and the best approximation (Turkey is not Arab, of course) may well be the Palestinians.
David
David, Thanks for the points you made, I think Turkey to be integrated with EU will be a long way to be seen in near future for many reasons that you mentioned and others inside Turkey.
But the point I would you and other realised David, is the Arab/Muslims courtiers had and have a lot of interferences from the west which I and more Arabs/Muslims see it also, the interferences from the west wither from US in the Arabian Gulf countries and Arabia Saudi, or France in North Africa like Algeria, or from others like in Indonesia were Soharto time, or Pakistan,.
Please don’t take my words wrong here I am not putting my all blames on the west, I quite understand our societies its far from understanding a democracy and how to practise it, but we had the power, we had the tools we can do it in our way but we still needs the west support and help but not like we saw in the history from Britt’s or US and most recent in Iraq, its defiantly most of us if not all of us rejecting and apposing what you put on us to follow, I think you agree with me in this.
David, yes we had the wealth and we had the oil, the west needs to educates themselves to share this wealth to benefit both sides not other way as we see for many years, I know there is unwise in the using the revenues from the oil in almost all of the oil courtiers but I be very surprised if you object that there are west fingers playing major rule in these unwise spending I think I can give you the recent example that is the Arabia Saudi in process to singe an Arm Deale with Britt’s total amount of the deals is $US71.00Billons, I asked you now a simple questions:
1- Is it really this Arms needed to this country and for what?
2- How many commissions will be paid to Prince and other s who involved in this unimaginable deal? Did the west accepting the corruption to be done by them for us?
3- There are many Arab/Muslims courtiers in bad hunger crisis, take Sudan in the south for many years we knew and hear there are the human died because there is no food and across the RED sea there is a huge amount of money used and wasted for decades, do you feel our miserable feeling about these guys in the power supported and protected by you?
I think we went far from the topics, my apology to the readers and to Helen.
AN RAF doctor is facing a court martial for refusing to serve in the Iraq war because he believed the conflict was illegal.
Flight-Lieutenant Malcolm Kendall-Smith, 37, a medical officer based at RAF Kinloss in Scotland, is to be prosecuted for “disobeying a lawful command”.
This is very interesting case which brings the legality of Iraq Invasion War to the top, this case if proceed of course this guy will be charged because not following orders but his argument is the legality of this war, here we question the international law.
Let’s see what surprise is might this case brings to us…
“Abdul Hussein al-Hindawi, a senior member of Iraq’s Independent Election Commission, said he was unhappy with early reports of a “yes” victory.
“We are trying to remain cool. Our credibility depends on it,” he told AFP.
Hindawi said he had been “surprised” by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s brief forecast Sunday of voters’ approval, saying: “As far as I know, she’s not a member of the electoral commission.”
Juan Cole: Iraq is a failed state at the moment.
Hello everyone from an internet cafe in Bucharest on my way to Cairo!
“why don’t Iraqis vote yes so that the invader declares victory and leaves”
And what guarantee to we have that the invader will leave? Exactly none of course!
“and once gone rescind the constitution and replace it with a better one or with chopped liver if they prefer?”
And by what mechanism do you propose the Iraqi people rescind this so-called constitution, and who composes the “better” one, or prepares the chopped liver for that matter?
“Isn’t that less painful than the agonic fragmentation and deterioration of the country?”
It will solve exactly nothing. In fact, it is obvious that obscentity of a so-called constitution is contributing to the fragmentation of the country.
Thanks Shirin for taking the trouble and expense to share your views from the road. There are no guarantees of course, other than a scenario analysis of what incentives the invader operates under. Would you spend 100B taxpayer dollars and tie up 150.000 youngsters in 120 degree heat if you didn’t have to?
The US is mostly critized for abandoning Afghanistan too soon if anything. Precents are also a useful tool…
The lack of mechanisms is a problem you face even if the US leaves due to a military defeat, at least this way they leave by the power of a ballot with immense savings in life and infrastructure.
The fragmentation is a result of the tensions and conflict between the three major groups, and the skeletons in their closets. A piece of paper does not set a country on fratricide fire, no matter how obscene the paper is.
Have a great trip,
David
David,
Would you spend 100B taxpayer dollars and tie up 150.000 youngsters in 120 degree heat if you didn’t have to?
So you admitted this is a colonialism war not for free Iraq and democratic,OR Big ME Plan, isn’t David?
This is what we argue long time here in the blog that US it’s looking for their interest in the region, in the past ny blindly supporting Israel, and now US come with itself to control the ME.
I know you joked in the post before when you said “why don’t Iraqis vote yes so that the invader declares victory and leaves” but we knew the reality that not can happened.
the lack of mechanisms is a problem you face even if the US leaves due to a military defeat, at least this way they leave
Who responsible for the lack of mechanisim David? US played major rule that not put the mechanisime right or used it, first we hear that there are no plans after the war, then its security then now its “The fragmentation is a result of the tensions and conflict between the three major groups”
Who does this? Who try to pump up this fragmentation? Is it US for 18 months working for un-stabilised Iraq? Even the constitution its US made scenario David? Is Iraqi asked for it? The fact is there are more importunate things to be done before the constitution voting at this stage.
“A piece of paper does not set a country on fratricide fire, no matter how obscene the paper is.”
Yes David, you are right you and others will realise this fact and other facts from the land of Mesopotamia
President George W. Bush’s representative to advance America’s image in the Muslim world, Karen Hughes
“But Hughes said there was a difference between terrorists who have vowed to kill all Americans, Jews and even moderate Muslims, and the democratically elected leader of a country who goes to war to protect his country’s constitution.”
So they will stay to protect the democratically elected leader of a country who goes to war to protect his country’s constitution…….
Salah,
We agree again. I never said I believed for a minute Bush’s nonsense about democratizing Iraq. But I was serious about voting yes and getting the US out the easy way. I hate to admit that the French were wise in saving Paris by sitting it out and not fighting Germany. By 1945 the Germans were gone and Paris was intact.
As for the internal tensions between Sunni and Shia, the US didn’t invent them and I suspect you are the one that has to explain why a difference of opinion between Ali and the rest so many centuries ago results in fratricide and religious cleansing in today’s Iraq.
David
David,
Yes US didn’t invent them “Sunni and Shia’at”, they are on the ground for hundred of years, but what I am saying is there is never been fratricide and religious cleansing in Iraq before the dictator or during his regime, although he start making differences and used it to benefit his regime and his sick attitude but what happened after the invasion this what US invent by first making the propaganda machine telling you there is Shia’at, Sunni and Kurds and different ethnics fighting each other this lie Iraqi never been fighting each other there is no Sha’at cities and Sunni cites all the Iraqi lived in harmony they married each other Shia’at Sunni Kurds, so if what you saying “difference of opinion between Ali and the rest so many centuries ago results in fratricide and religious cleansing in today’s Iraq.” How this mirage and living in same streets and town together and doing business David?
I telling this David, most Iraqis before if you asked them if he is Sunni or Sha’ai he will take it as insult David this the reality from Iraq people look to that you doing some thing wrong or you try to damge thier live by asking.
But what we call them Iranian/Iraqi those how had this sickness and they used these things to get the befits whatever make themself as we see with Alsistani or Almudarssi, Alkhue these the creators of the fraternisation to gain control, I
Lets tell you this funny things what these guys did and doing till now, when we are just teenage when Ramadan start normally by seeing the rise crescent and the Iraqi government normally either follow the other neighbours or some reported to the Iraqi religious Authority (this is government authority) what those Iranian in Najaf and Karblah done their Fatwa is Ramadan two days after the government is it funny these B… what the doing?
Those guys most hated by Iraqi, what US did after invasion supporting this rubbish of people and make you believe there is religious cleansing in today’s Iraq and this what I can call it the US did invent them.
Greetings from Cairo, a truly 24/7 city!
David, how many decades have you lived as a member of Iraqi society that qualifies you to talk about it in such an authoritative manner?
Hi, Shirin, give my love to Umm ad-dunia! It is truly a world-class metropolis (even if frequently quite crazy.)
Back here in the US of A, we’re about to come up to 2,000 GI’s dead. The whole business is very depressing…
Anyway, you have a good time there. I should be there in February (or earlier).
“David, how many decades have you lived as a member of Iraqi society that qualifies you to talk about it in such an authoritative manner”
what a silly ad hominem. shirin, david could point to dozens of native iraqi supporters of bush foreign policy who have lived in iraq for decades. your retreat to personal authority is telling; are you unable to counter his position point by point?