Iraq constitution (still yawning)

Steadfast JWN readers will recall that I wrote here a week ago that I judged the current flurry of discussions in Iraq over a new, “permanent” constitution to be quite unrealistic and therefore a big yawn.
I still do.
And the sheer chutzpah of the American occupation chiefs over this whole issue is truly mind-boggling.
The Iraqis had their election on January 30. US “Ambassador” John Negroponte shortly thereafter left town… The Americans took no political initiatives at all regarding Iraq for many long months… The security situation for the Iraqis almost immediately deteriroated radically… Six months later “Ambassador” Khalilzad finally deigns to show up… And his big message to the Iraqi political bosses is suddenly “Hurry up guys! Get this permanent constitution done! You only have three weeks left to do it! We cannot extend the August 15 deadline!”
Gimme a break. Is that really supposed to be a serious way to facilitate/shepherd an extremely momentous– yes, even truly existential— negotiation over the future governance of Iraq??
Of course not. That’s why I think that any piece of paper that comes out of these hurried, Washington-coerced “negotiations” will scarcely be worth anything.
But in the mean-time, these “negotiations” have underlined what some of the key issues will be… Huge issues, like identity, the role of Islam in the Constitution, the degree and nature of federalism, language rights, the relations between different sub-groups, etc.
In South Africa it took just over three years– from 1990, when Mandela was released and the ANC and other anti-apartheid movements were decriminalized, to the point where the ANC and the National Party reached agreement on the format and modalities for the 1994 elections– for the leaders of these already well-defined political movements to come to basic agreement on their continued coexistence within one fully democratic South African state.
Along the way they had to wrestle with exactly the same kind of issues that the Iraqi parties are. (With the exception of the question of the “role of Islam.” But of course, for the National Party and many Afrikaaners, keeping the definition of SA as a “Christian Nation” was something they felt very strongly about.)
In Iraq, as I’ve noted before, the party system is far less well developed than in South Africa in 1990. Which makes the negotiating even harder to conduct.
So why on earth should Zal Khalilzad imagine that he can accomplish in three weeks what it took De Klerk and the ANC more than three years to accomplish??
… Anyway, I just wanted to further clarify why I don’t think the minutiae of the current discussions on the “permanent” constitution are worth paying too, too much attention to.
Meanwhile, let Khalilzad and all his backers in Washington remember that they don’t actually need to “achieve” an Iraqi constitution in order to get out of the country… All they need to do is leave. If they tell folks that that is what they intend to do, hundreds of different parties, organizations, and governments around the world will be happy to help them find a way to do that.

16 thoughts on “Iraq constitution (still yawning)”

  1. I don’t think George W. understands how close we are to military defeat in Iraq. He probably understands that the original strategic goals are no longer achievable, but I doubt he can conceive of the magnitude of failure we are now facing. Quite simply, nothing anywhere near this bad has ever been allowed to happen to our boy President.
    Certainly, there are many professionals in the military and the State Dept. who know exactly how dire the situation has become. They may be worried about how W. will react if he ever has to face the truth. I know I am. They are doing what mid-level managers do everywhere – trying to get out of a bad situation before the boss realizes how bad it really is.
    For everyone’s sake, I hope some kind of constitution is adopted soon, and some kind of election is held before the end of the year, so we can “declare victory” and leave. As much as I hate the thought of W. never having to face reality, what that might mean in this case is too horrible to contemplate.

  2. John C.,
    Could you be specific as to what you think the consequences of American withdrawal will be? What do you think are the implications of an American admission that it can not control Iraq, and in this sense, an admission of American defeat?

  3. cguida – I don’t know what all the consequences will be. Did W. know what the consequences would be when he made the decision to invade?

  4. The prospect of a quick-fix “constitution” that would somehow satisfy or at least mollify everyone in Iraq was always a bit of a pipedream, another mythical “turning point.”
    Didn

  5. yes, it is not as if the Iraqis are like the Germans, Japanese, South Koreans, Czechs…even the Ukraines…it is clear that Saddam’s brutal regime was what they deserved and it is hubrus on our part to believe that somehow democracy or representative government is something that they can handle.

  6. Thanks for the story on Vincent. The mainline story sounded too tidy – now it sounds real to me (having lived most of my life in the ME). Especially, thanks for thinking of all the other journalists who have been killed, including those killed by US troops. Too bad they didn’t write for the NYT or WaPo. Or the CSM, your old paper.
    Keep up the good writing – I’ve been reading it for years.

  7. Thanks for the story on Vincent. The mainline story sounded too tidy – now it sounds real to me (having lived most of my life in the ME). Especially, thanks for thinking of all the other journalists who have been killed, including those killed by US troops. Too bad they didn’t write for the NYT or WaPo. Or the CSM, your old paper.
    Keep up the good writing – I’ve been reading it for years.

  8. Thanks for the story on Vincent. The mainline story sounded too tidy – now it sounds real to me (having lived most of my life in the ME). Especially, thanks for thinking of all the other journalists who have been killed, including those killed by US troops. Too bad they didn’t write for the NYT or WaPo. Or the CSM, your old paper.
    Keep up the good writing – I’ve been reading it for years.

  10. UPI has some interesting statistics on insurgents killed or captured, as reported by the U.S. military, but they don’t quite know what conclusions to draw:
    http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20050808-124515-9860r
    To me, the obvious conclusion is the plain and simple truth that we are at war with the people of Iraq (some 25 million souls). It is truly a miracle of modern propaganda that this truth escapes the notice of most Americans.

  11. Helena:
    By running down the Constitution now, you are legitimizing a military effort to prevent its passage and to destroy it after it is passed. This encourages non-constitutional Islamist or Baathist military insurgencies and the tyrannies they imply. Is that what you intend? Or are you just opposed to Constitutional government? Or just opposed in Iraq? I would love to believe you support the idea of a constitutional democracy in Iraq but don’t see that as your position.

    John C
    I don’t think you understand how close or far the current Iraqi government is from defeat. I just isn’t an easy question. The Shiite and Kurds will simply not let the Sunni/Baathists take over and it would only take minimal US support to ensure the Sunni’s do not win. I forsee a Sunni bloodbath as a distinct possibility.

    The article referenced in “World Peace Herald” argues that the US statistics of Iraqi deaths are inflated and that the insurgency just might be very popular among the Sunni. How does this support the idea that the US is “At war with Iraq” in general?

  12. Dear WarrenW-
    I wasn’t talking about the “Iraqi government.” I was talking about the U.S. military. I expressed no opinion about the likely outcome of fighting among indigenous groups.
    I don’t understand the thought process behind your statement that “it would only take minimal US support to ensure the Sunni’s do not win.” Do you think that is, or ought to be, our mission in Iraq? If only “minimal” U.S. effort is required to defeat the Sunni insurgents, how is it that their strength is undiminished after 2.5 years of absorbing all the punishment we can deliver, short of nuclear weapons?
    Since WWII, the U.S. never admits that it is at war with another country. We always claim to be liberating the people of the country we are invading from the clutches of evil dictators, rogues, communists, etc. There are many Americans (perhaps you among them?) who to this day will hotly contest any suggestion that the U.S. ever invaded Vietnam, or was at war with the people of that country. If this is your mindset, Warren, I can’t help you.
    Write this down: the U.S. WILL be forced to withdraw its troops from Iraq. The only questions are when and how. Personally, I favor doing it before thousands more Americans and tens of thousands more Iraqis are killed, and while we can still make some colorable claim to be acting voluntarily. We’ve seen what the other way looks like, and it isn’t pretty.

  13. Does anybody here remember Middle Europe? The Soviets kept the lid on all the ethnic/religious violence there for four decades by brutally suppressing any uprising. Once Ivan was gone all that old hatred came right back up to the surface and boiled over (Kosovo, Armenia, Azerbaijan, ad nauseum). Iraq is the same kind of stew in miniature. You’ve got ethnic and religious differences amongst these people that go back hundreds of years. The only reaason Iraq was as peaceful as it was during Saddam’s time was that he mashed any dissent flat. Saddam openly used brutality to keep the nation in line.
    What makes us think that we can do anything about the age-old ethnic and religious tensions in Iraq? To them we’re Just Another Invading Army. Do you not know the Middle Eastern tale? It goes like this:
    “Me against my brother.
    Me and my brother against my cousin.
    Me, my brother, and my cousin against my friend.
    Me, my brother, my cousin, and my friend against — you.”
    With thinking like this, how can the US — or any other major power, for that matter — ever pretend to “win?”

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