Yesterday evening I put up a short post here about the fears swirling around the Middle East about the possible physical weakening of Egypt’s 81-year-old President Hosni Mubarak, an authoritarian ruler who is a key US ally in the region.
Now, more than 18 hours later, the vast (and vastly expensive) newsgathering operation of the NYT has finally caught up with the story.
Their Cairo-based correspondent Mona el-Naggar provides a few more details than I did.
She reports that “many local commentators” said that Mubarak, “looked weak and in poor health standing next to a youthful President Obama in their recent meeting here.” (Duh!)
Then she adds:
This latest round [of concern about his health] … has its roots in a personal shock. Not long before Mr. Obama’s visit, one of Mr. Mubarak’s two grandchildren, a 12-year-old boy, died unexpectedly. By all accounts, Mr. Mubarak doted on the boy and was devastated by his death, canceling a planned visit to Washington — his first in five years — and disappearing from public view for about 10 days.
He resurfaced to receive Mr. Obama but did not go to the airport to greet him.
I note, however, that back when he cancelled his Washington trip, there was some serious questioning as to whether the death of the grandson, however, sad, was actually a sufficient explanation for the ageing leader’s occlusion at the time. So Naggar’s “by all acounts” is not, strictly speaking, true.
She is quite right to note that he has never appointed a vice-president. And of course this means that any news of him failing some physically is necessarily going to spark a sharp succession struggle within the country’s closed and long military-dominated political elite. She notes, as I did yesterday, that two main contenders identified in Cairo’s ever-humming political salons are First Son Gamal Mubarak and military intel chief Omar Suleiman.
Naggar adds:
If [Mubarak] dies in office, then the speaker of the Parliament, a veteran leader [of the ruling ‘National Democratic Party’, NDP], Fathi Sorour, would serve as an interim president until an election could be called. With no real political parties here, an election would effectively be a formality to install the candidate selected by Mr. Mubarak’s party. Gamal Mubarak is a high-ranking official in the party, but there remains no guarantee that the old-timers in the system or the military would go along with his ascension, political commentators said.
Mubarak has been president continuously since Anwar as-Sadat was assassinated in 1981. He had been his vice-president; both men, like Gamal Abdel-Nasser who preceded Sadat, came from the military and relied strongly on the military to buttress their rule.
In the heady days of G. W. Bush’s push for “democratization throughout the whole of the Middle East”, Mubarak agreed to allow opposition parties to run against him when he ran for his current six-year term in office, back in September 2005. But he very cleverly use government resources and media to outfox them, winning a handy victory.
Two months later, elections were held for the 444 elected seats in the lower house of the country’s parliament. This time, though the regime deployed many brutally repressive tactics against its opponents, Muslim Brotherhood (MB) candidates running as independents were able to win 88 seats.
The MB is by far the country’s biggest and best organized grassroots movement. It has been committed to the use of only nonviolent methods since the early 1980s, but this has not prevented the regime from using considerable violence and numerous quite unwarranted arrest campaigns, etc., against it.
The MB’s victory in the three-round elections of November-December 2005 provided something of a preview of what happened in the Palestinian legislative elections held in January 2006. In the Palestinian elections, Hamas, which had started out life in the 1970s and 1980s as, essentially, an offshoot of the MB movements in both Egypt and Jordan, won an upset victory over the US-backed Fateh movement.
That surprise outcome ended the Bush folks’ enthusiasm for Middle East “democratization” once and for all. Not only did the US back Israel’s brutal siege campaign against the elected Palestinian leadership, it also planned for a Contras-style coup against it, though that coup was only successful in the West Bank, and not in Gaza.
In Egypt, the Bushites’ sharp shift away from being concerned about democracy meant that when elections were held for the “Shura Council” upper house in 2007, the Mubarak regime made no attempt whatsoever to pretend to run them democratically… and the US’s very generous allocations of aid to the regime continued uninterrupted.