Broder on Bush’s gamble

I don’t know when the WaPo started putting thier Sunday columns up on their website on Saturday. But today I just saw this column by the generally very wise Washington insider David Broder.
It’s worth reading. Broder starts:

    With his new Iraq policy, President Bush essentially has written off any prospect of regaining broad support at home for his course of action, in the slender hope of finding the key to military success and political agreements in Baghdad.
    It is a huge personal gamble, one that has triggered a debate that may well dominate the final two years of Bush’s tenure.

Later, this:

    Bush said that he has Maliki’s word that all this will happen — and that there will be an end to the unspoken policy of targeting Sunnis while protecting Shiite militias. When I asked a National Security Council official why the promise should be taken seriously, after so many disappointments in the past year, he said that the prime minister faces not just external pressure from the United States but also the urgings of “other moderate elements” in his own coalition who are weary of the fighting.
    A skeptic would say that Bush has sacrificed the support of moderates at home — the Republican as well as Democratic lawmakers voicing skepticism about his plan — for some supposed “moderates” in Baghdad.
    For this gamble to work, a lot of implausible things have to happen. Maliki’s governing coalition, which includes the party of Moqtada al-Sadr, will have to steel itself to send troops into the neighborhoods controlled by Sadr’s own Mahdi Army. Defense Secretary Robert Gates says this will happen, but the promise remains to be tested.
    Also unproved is the capacity of the Iraqi army and police force, which are supposed to be “in the lead,” with American troops in support, in clearing out Baghdad…

I gotta run. I’m expecting Laila el-Haddad and her family here any moment…

Last-ditch ground force ‘surge’: Israel’s precedent

US Secdef Robert Gates, appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, was trying to re-package Bush’s outrageous “surge” plan in what looked like a frenzied attempt to tamp down the criticisms it has incurred from lawmakers of both parties. In today’s WaPo, Josh White and Ann Scott Tyson described Gates’s testimony there thus:

    If the plan works, the United States could begin drawing down troop levels by the end of the year, Gates said. If the Iraqi government does not deliver troops and political and economic support, he said, the United States could withhold many of the 21,500 additional troops Bush has ordered to secure the most violent parts of Iraq.

Oops, maybe not such a strong commitment from Gates to the “surge” after all?
But honestly, at this stage in the tangled decisionmaking of this Keystone Cops of an administration, who knows?
(The Senate ASC also got a nuanced little message from Gen. Peter Pace, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that the brass in the Pentagon do not want to get dragged into any military adventures against Iran. Pace, those same reporters write,

    assured members of the Senate Armed Services Committee that there are no plans to take military operations into Iran, clarifying remarks Bush made on Wednesday in announcing the new Iraq package.
    “From a military standpoint,” Pace said while responding to questions, there is “no need to cross the Iranian border.”

Let’s hope that position stands firm, eh? Also, as I’ve written before a number of times– e.g. here, last September– the US military really should agitate very hard indeed at this point for military-to-military hotlines and other deconfliction mechanisms with Teheran. Right along the length of the Iraq-Iran border, along the whole of the Iranian coastline onto the Gulf, and also along Iran’s border with Afghanistan, the two militaries face each other eyeball to eyeball. A confrontation or provocation could flare up at any point– by the intent of the national command authorities on either side, through the intent of infiltrators into the forces on one side or the other, or completely “inadventently.” That’s why the highest levels of the militaries need to have a way to communicate clearly and authoritatively with each other.)
Anyway, this post was not meant, primarily, to be about that. It’s about the present Keystone Cops-ish disarray in the highest levels of the US strategic/military decisionmaking strata over this whole question of Bush’s much-ballyhooed “surge.”
The more one hears from people like Gates, the more unclear the point of this “surge” seems to be…
So okay, let’s go back to early August last year: Israel. By then it was abundantly clear to the national leaders that the “knockout blow” against Hizbullah that their strategically illiterate chief of staff had promised them in Lebanon had not worked… With 100-200 Hizbullah rockets raining down daily on communities in northern Israel that were either completely unprepared for such a barrage or seemed paralyzed by it, PM Olmert was coming under increasingly open criticism from his public… His political capital was washing out from under his feet from hour to hour… I can imagine Olmert– a national leader with very little experience of his own either in the military or in military-strategic decisionmaking– tearing his hair out (if he had much left to tear, okay), in desperation, and imploring his chief of staff to “Do something! Do something! Quick!”
So what Dan Halutz, the chief of staff, came up with was to add to his previous (by now, quite evidently failed) military plan in Lebanon the previously unplanned addition of– a quickly-thrown-together ground force surge. What’s more, that surge– like the one presently being discussed in Washington– also involved around 20,000 additional troops.
Didn’t make any sense for the IDF. Won’t make sense for the US in Iraq.
Olmert’s reckless insistence back in August that the ill-prepared Israeli ground forces mount that last-minute “surge” into Lebanon cost Israel the lives of some 36 or more soldiers. It notably did not succeed in improving Israel’s position on the battlefield in south Lebanon. Instead, the widely-disseminated reporting of the wounded Israeli units streaming back over the border into Israel with their casualties further pummelled an Israeli posture of strategic deterrence that had already been considerably weakened by the events of the previous 30 days. Some members of those units returned home and immediately joined in a broad campaign of criticism and reproach against Olmert, Halutz, and the rest of the reckless leadership that had thrown their units thus cavalierly into the caldron of war… And at the domestic political level, Olmert has never really recovered since.
Bottom line on Olmert’s surge: not good for Israel’s strategic deterrence, and not good for Olmert’s political standing.
So now, here we have Bush and his team, launching an eery replay of many of those very same moves. Go back and read some of the reporting from Israel that I cited in this JWN post on August 6. Especially at the portion subtitled “Note 2: Disarray and splits in Israeli decisionmaking”.
This looks remarkably similar to the way that Gates is now trying to re-fashion and/or re-package Bush’s absurd and esclatory orders to undertake a “surge” in Iraq… and that Gen Pace is also trying to re-fashion and/or re-package what Cheney and Bush might have been pushing toward, regarding a huge escalation against Iran.
With this difference. Gates and Pace may both have many faults and weaknesses. But at least both men have considerably more experience in strategy and strategic decisionmaking than their counterparts in Israel had last August.
However, the US (like Israel) is a country in which the political echelon, quite rightly, remains in command of even the highest levels of the military. So we, the concerned citizenry of the US, cannot simply leave it to Robert Gates and Peter Pace to rein in the mad adventurism of the President. We have to continue– working at the grassroots as well as with and through our representatives in Congress– to keep the pressure up, politically, on Bush to reverse his disastrous course in Iraq.
My lord, I wish we had a decent parliamentary system here! If we did have one, the elections of last November would not have left this dangerously crazy Presidential-Veep team in control.

Happy anniversary, Dan Froomkin!

Sometimes– today, for example,– when I read Dan Froomkin’s online digest of the day’s major US news coverage, I think, “Oh my G-d, why did I spend two hours this morning pulling together my own pathetic and very limited version of that?”
Froomkin does a fabulous job of what he calls “accountability journalism.” I’m imagining he has two or three news aides, helping him read through six or seven huge newspapers and a bunch of transcripts and other materials there, and pulling out all those great quotes and links…
But he maintained that same, generally excellent standard even back when many of the “bigwigs” of the WaPo’s dead-tree edition were all still on the pro-war, bamboozled-by-Bush bandwagon.
Today, he offers us a particularly rich feast. Read especially the section sub-titled “Eyes on Iran.”
The one problem? He doesn’t get his offerings up onto Wapo.com until sometime after 12:30 p.m. or 1:00 p.m. each day. Which usually doesn’t work for my schedule. (Any chance you could start working a night-shift?)
Anyway, today is the third anniversary of his online-only column there. Huge thanks, Dan, and carry on for many more years with your great work!

Big shifts against the Bush War

The tectonic plates of history are, finally, shifting in this country. A citizenry that was largely stunned into fearful followership by the attacks of September 2001 has started to regain its sense of reponsibility, its morals, and its agency.
We saw that at the ballot-box, November 7. But it didn’t end there. Since November, citizens’ antiwar pressure on our lawmakers has continued. An incoming Congress whose leaders originally planned to put their first focus on domestic affairs was forced instead to put the Iraq war at the top of its agenda. They started yesterday. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee was grilling Condi Rice on the President’s new “plan” for Iraq, at the same time the House Armed Services Committee was grilling new Secdef Gates on the same topic.
Crucially, in the Senate hearings, nearly all the Republicans there joined the Dems in expressing strong criticism of the Bush Plan.
The best read on that is Dana Milbanks in today’s WaPo. He wrote that at the end, committee chair Joe Biden told Rice bluntly:

    “I hope you’ll convey to the president… that you heard 21 members, with one or two notable exceptions, expressing outright hostility, disagreement and/or overwhelming concern with the president’s proposal.”

I saw some news clips of the hearing on t.v. last night. GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel was completely scathing about the Prez’s plan for escalation, and very, very persistent in his criticism of Condi.
Condi tried to claim that what the Prez is proposing is not an escalation but an “augmentation.” (What on earth does that mean, anyway? Sounds like a distinction without being a difference to me.)
I believe the Prez’s plan is an escalation in two ways:

    (1) It’s an increase over the current number of US troops in Iraq (though admittedly still not an all-time high), and also
    (2) It mandates a significant increase in the lethality of the operations the GIs will be allowed, or even encouraged, to undertake in Iraq in the period ahead.

The enhanced permissivity of the military’s ROEs in Iraq (as spelled out quite clearly by the White House on Wednesday, here, p.10) is an even stronger marker of the escalation in the level of conflict that the new plan will bring to the “battlefield” in Iraq than the somewhat paltry increase in the troop numbers.
This escalation spells increased death and destruction– overwhelmingly for the Iraqis, but also for the US service members who will be caught up in the middle of it.
… And the US citizenry are starting, in strong numbers, to understand this.
Longtime JWN readers will know that every Thursday when I’m in my home-town in Charlottesville, Virginia, I take part in our town’s weekly antiwar vigil/demonstration. On many occasions there have been just three or four of us gathered on the windy street corner outside the federal courthouse building here, valiantly holding up our signs that urge the many passing motorists to “Honk 4 Peace”.
Throughout 2006, we saw a steady increase in the numbers of motorists responding. But still, for the most part, there were just between three and seven of us standing there for that one hour per week. (On occcasion I have stood alone, at least for a short time; and several times just two of us have been standing there for 15 minutes or so till someone else came to join us.)
On Thursday last week, there were about 15 people.
Then yesterday, as my doughty co-demonstrator Jane Foster, age 82, and I approached the corner at 4:30 p.m. with our bulky bundle of signs, we were surprised to see people waiting around there for us to come. People whom, for the most part, we didn’t know. “What– ?” I thought to myself as I rushed over to them with the signs. People grabbed them from the pile. Soon, we ran out of signs. People kept coming… Mothers with kids in strollers. Middle-aged couples coming in from out of town. A bunch of people from our Quaker meeting… My dear friend Catherine Peaslee, age 84. (She and Jane have both been stalwart demonstrators over the past year. What incredible women!) I saw people there I hadn’t seen at demonstrations since the big ones we held before the invasion of Iraq– and, as I said, lots of folks I’d never seen before.
The “front” side of our demonstration stretched out, facing the traffic, right along that one corner kerbside outside the courthouse and stretching a long way down sidewalks both ways.
The honking was incredible. Definitely the most ever. We’ve been working hard to “train” the drivers on this for more than three years now. I was so proud of their response yesterday! For sure, everyone who was anywhere near our busy intersection during that hour would have gotten a very strong message… and that includes, probably, the occupants of some 5,000 or 7,000 vehicles driving through. As usual, we got a particularly strong response from African-American drivers, and women. But all sorts of demographics were represented among the honkers yesterday, including the (white, male) drivers of some enormous trucks, people in expensive cars, drivers of old jalopies crammed with a bunch of co-workers going home after a long shift, etc, etc.
Many people wanted just to lean long and hard on their horns. Others did a defiant little thum-thum-a-thum-thum. At times it built up into a broad, glorious concert of varied rhythms and tones.
I must admit that the back side of our demonstration had a bit of a carnival atmosphere as old friends saw each other and went over to hug and say hi. We old-timers had been totally unprepared for this and asked each other in amazement: “What happened?” The general answer was twofold. Number one: the totally unconvincing nature of the President’s speech the night before. Number two: one of our people, Chip Tucker, had actually listed our weekly demonstration on the website of the national organizing group Moveon.org, and several of the new people had seen it there and come along.
In retrospect, I wish we had done more to follow up on and consolidate some of the new energy we saw there. (We should probably try to be a lot more intentional about this next week.)
But it really was an amazing experience… and it certainly helped convince me that Bush has now, fairly definitively, lost the battle for public support of his Iraq war.
Other indicators of this abound. The hearings on Capitol Hill– which are continuing today, and will certainly continue next week– are just riveting. They remind us how great it is, finally, to have a bit of a two-party system back in operation here… I do still want to underline that the opposition to the Bush War is not “merely” partisan. Now, as since the very beginning of this war, there has always been serious opposition to it from some Republicans. But oh, it is so great to see a leadership in the the two houses of congress that now seems prepared to explore, harness, and focus this opposition and– finally– to start to hold the administration accountable.
Today’s papers also have lots of indications that disenchantment with the President and his war policy is strong, deep, and growing. There are some poll results– I can’t immediately find a link– that reportedly show that Bush didn’t even get any tiny blip of an increase in poll numbers with his Wednesday night speech.
And today’s NYT tells us that:

Over in the WaPo, meanwhile, Sudarsam Raghavan wrote about the disillusionment of US soldiers on the frontlines, in the Hurriyah district of Baghdad. Including this great quote, from 20-year-old infantryman Daniel Caldwell: “They’re kicking a dead horse here. The Iraqi army can’t stand up on their own.”
(All of that short report from Raghavan is worth reading. In it, he describes going out with this unit on an allegedly “intel-driven” raid on some houses “near the Mahanara School”… Turned out, though, that they’d done their intrusive house-to-house searching in a neighborhood near a completely different school, altogether… Those guys didn’t have a clue where they were, or where they were going… And as for their commander-in-chief??)
But what, you might wonder, is absolutely the weakest of the many weak links in the latest Bush “plan” for Iraq?
That would be its reliance on having won the “commitment” to it of Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki. In Condi’s appearance at the Senate F.R. Committee yesterday, she had made a huge deal about how this was the decisive new element in the new plan.
In Baghdad, however, as John Burns and Sabrina Tavernise noted laconically in this NYT piece,

    The Iraqi leader, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, failed to appear at a news conference and avoided any public comment. He left the government’s response to an official spokesman, Ali al-Dabbagh, who gave what amounted to a backhanded approval of the troop increase and emphasized that Iraqis, not Americans, would set the future course in the war.
    Mr. Dabbagh said that the government’s objective was to secure the eventual withdrawal of American troops…
    “The plan can be developed according to the needs,” Mr. Dabbagh said. Then he added tartly, “What is suitable for our conditions in Iraq is what we decide, not what others decide for us.”

History, as I said, is in the making.

US arrests Iranian diplomats in Arbil

I guess this were the (poisoned) first fruits of the “New Way Forward” that Bush announced last night? Early this morning, US forces stormed an Iranian governmental rep’s office in the Kurdish capital of Arbil (Erbil), arresting five employees, including diplomats and staff.
Unbelievable. And that was in the capital of Washington’s Kurdish allies, too. Reuters had this, later:

    Iraq’s Kurdish regional government on Thursday condemned a U.S. raid on an Iranian government office in the Iraqi city of Arbil as a violation of the region’s sovereignty and of international immunity laws.
    In a strongly-worded statement from one of Washington’s closest allies in Iraq, the offices of the Kurdish prime minister and Kurdish president expressed their “concern and condemnation” over the pre-dawn operation and urged the U.S. military to release Iranian staff arrested during the raid.

How to make friends and influence people, huh?

Discussing Bush’s speech at IFF

Joost Hiltermann, Reidar Visser, Patrick Lang, Howard Zinn, and I are all discussing the Prez’s speech over at this discussion zone established by the Institute for the Future of the Book.
I’m pretty sure more people will join the discussion as we progress. Actually, what we really need are some folks prepared to go there and articulate the best kinds of defense the Prez might mount against what for now looks like a barrage of criticism. (Should I play “Devil’s Advocate”, I wonder?)
It’s an interesting format they have at IFF (and still to be further refined, I think.) My colleagues have all posted some excellent contributions. General readers may– or may not?– also be allowed to contribute. Sorry, I’m not quite clear about that, yet.

The Petraeus doctrine and extra-judicial executions.

I hope you have all now read the table I posted here yesterday, containing my notes on the text of the new US Army-and-Marines counter-insurgency manual co-authored by Gen. Petraeus.
It gives what I understand to be broad permission for those engaged in counter-insurgency operations to “eliminate” broad classes of those whom military commanders judge to be “extremists”.
That is, for the military to engage in extra-judicial executions.
(We could note that Israel’s broad pursuit of that policy has quite failed top bring a solution to its problems with its neighbors any closer.)
On a related note Bill the spouse pointed out this morning that in the penultimate slide (“Key Operational Shifts”) in the PowerPoint presentation on the “Iraq Strategy Review” that was distributed by White House staffers yesterday, the third change noted is from “restrictive ROE [Rules of Engagement]” to a new state of affairs in which “Iraqi leaders [are] committed to permissive ROE”. It’s not clear there whether these “permissive ROEs” are for the Iraqi forces or the US forces, but either way it looks like very bad news.
It strikes me that we, the US citizenry, have no excuse whatever these days for claiming that “we don’t know” what is being done by our leaders in our names. This is the case regarding this new permission for extra-judicial executions, as well as what continues to go on in Guantanamo and other prisons run by the US military around the world, and a number of other clear US infractions of the laws of war.
In South Africa today, nearly every white citizen claims he or she “never knew” what the apartheid government was doing in his/her name prior to 1994. In many cases, those claims seem non-credible. But at least the apartheid government had what one might call the basic “decency” not to go about advertising its more heinous rights abuses far and wide. Our government, by contrast, seems to have little shame regarding its current and ongoing abuses.
No to extra-judicial executions! No to torture! Bring the troops home now!

Day of Shame: Five years of Guantanamo

Jan. 11 is the fifth anniversary of the arrival of the first group of prisoners at Guantanamo.
Some of those original 20 men are still there today, having been through almost unbelievable travails and abuses. None face the prospect of anything like a fair trial, and most are expected never to have any trial at all. Yet unlike prisoners-of-war who are held under the conditions defined in international law they cannot even expect to return to their homes at the end of any duly defined war. (And they are held in conditions far, far worse than the minimum standards established for POWs under international law.)
Now, there are some 395 men still in Gitmo. The vast majority of them have been there between two-and-a-half years and five years. Just 14 men were added to the rolls there last September, having been flown in from a secret CIA pirson or prisons elsewhere.
My column in Thursday’s CSM is on Guantanamo. You can find it here (or here.)
It concludes:

    Guantánamo is… a major moral challenge for the American people. We need to find a way to close this camp of shame and shine a light on the abuses committed there so that they’re never repeated.
    The detainees against whom there is solid evidence should be tried, and if found guilty , incarcerated. Let’s see and fully examine all the evidence. The rest should be released and given help for their rehabilitation after their years of dehumanizing detention.
    Will the new Congress take up this task? I certainly hope so.

I know that much of the US media Thursday will be busy dissecting Bush’s speech. I am really, really glad I decided to focus on Gunatanamo.
Does anyone want to see my collection of Guantanamo-related URLs on Delicious? It’s here.

Bush’s speech and first reactions

I just watched the President’s speech. The content had just about all been strategically “leaked” to various media before hand, so there wasn’t much new to hear. (I’m just waiting for the White House to put the text up on their website.)
Bush looked nervous, and as if he was trying too hard to be “sincere.” At points, he had a very high blink rate.
Afterwards, I saw Sen. Dick Durbin, Democratic of Illinois, who’s the Assistant Majority Leader of the Senate, give the Dems’ response. He looked much more self-confident, and confident that he understood what he was talking about… And what he talked about was the need for a “responsible disengagement.”
Now, I’m just listening to our new Senator from here in Virginia Jim Webb (Dem.) He started a little unconvincing but has become stronger. He just stated very forcefully “We have to recognize there will never be a true peace in Iraq so long as there are American combat troops on the streets of the country.” He also said he would not vote any more money for reconstruction in Iraq so long as the problems in New Orleans haven’t been properly addressed.
Webb is also speaking v. strongly to the need to have a regional diplomatic approach.
… Now, they’ve gone to having two very old white “security guys” talking about it: Retired assistant commandant of the Marine Corps Bernard Trainor and long-time-ago head of the National Security Agency Bill Odom. Both are strongly dismissive of the Prez’s approach. I just heard Odom talking about how it’s time for the US to go back to pursuing stability in the region… Also, he said that announcing a plan for the orderly withdrawal of the US troops would catalyze the neighbors into cooperating on a regional stabilization plan… which I tend to agree with.
Trainor and Webb both said things that looked like Iraqi PM Maliki was being set up for failure by the Prez’s plan. (Webb looked as though he in effect supported that part of the approach; Trainor as if he was worried by it.)
There was also a republican senator, John Thune of S. Dakota, and a rightwing NYT columnist called David Brooks talking. brooks expressed some quite strong criticisms of Bush’s plan, and even Thune expressed so,me reservations about parts of it– though overall, he was supportive.
Well, still no text on the White House site. I’ll post this. You can all carry on the discussion.

    Update, Thurs. a.m. It’s been pointed out to me that the term “very old white ‘security guys'” is ageist and racist. After a moment’s reflection, I quite agree, and apologize for having used it. The age and skin color of these two people is not material. I guess what I was trying to convey by “very old” was rather that these are two very experienced people. Moreover, they’re people of fairly conservative mien. It is better to describe them as something like “paleo-conservatives who are experienced strategic analysts.”
    It is particularly important, right now, not to demean the paleocons, who are playing an important role in undermining the political support for the military adventurism of their “neo” contenders for the conservative mantle. Also, as I’ve noted previously, many paleocons have contributed important and original insights to the national discussion over Iraq.
    Finally, here is the text of the speech from the White House. And here are some Power Point slides titled “Highlights of the Iraq Strategy Review” that were apparently released to the media by White House staffers sometime before Bush made the speech.