Conference in Beirut; “justice”; cluster bombs

I was planning to do a series of blog posts from the big conference I went to early this week at the Al-Waleed bin Talal al-Saud Center for American Studies and Research (CASAR) at AUB, in Beirut. But I confess I got a bit busy doing a few other things– some of them nitpicky editorial things to do with finishing the manuscript of my book, some having to do with actually spending some good time with some good people. So I postponed and postponed doing that blogging… And now, Stan Katz, the former head of the American Council of Learned Societies, who was also there, has beaten me to it and done a pretty good job of blogging the conference.
He did so in these three posts on the blog of the Chronicle of Higher Education: 1, 2, 3.
As Stan noted there, it was truly international gathering– even if not yet sufficiently so. The 50 or so presenters included scholars from Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, occupied East Jerusalem, Turkey, Germany, the UK, Netherlands, France, along with roughly 25 from the US. The conference’s title was “Liberty and Justice: America and the Middle East”. It was certainly notable that it was taking place just days before His High Excellency President G.W. Bush launched on his imperial-scale tour of his Middle East outposts… Checking up, no doubt, on the state of “Liberty and Justice” in Israel, Palestine, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the other countries he’s visiting. But that was a very different kind of “east-west” interaction!
One lack at the conference that I noted was the absence of any Iraqi scholars. Iraqis have, after all, been at the receiving end of most of the US’s policy in the region over the past five years. What do they have to say on the conference’s topic? I do not know whether the conference organizers had invited any, and they failed to attend; or whether none had ever been invited. The inviting process did seem a little haphazard in some ways. But one thing that was clear was the outreach and effort the organizers had undertaken in order to secure the participation of four or five scholars from Tehran. That was an excellent thing to do. I wish I’d spent more time trying to get to know the Iranian participants.
One of the sessions that Stan Katz attended, but I didn’t, was on the challenge of teaching American studies in the Middle East. He wrote:

    The speakers included the head of a new MA program at Teheran University in Iran (who seems, from his utterly colloquial language, to be an American), the director of the program at the University of Jordan in Amman, and a young graduate student from Al Quds University in East Jerusalem… In each case, though, there seemed to be considerable student interest in studying America, which in the year 2008 is both surprising and encouraging.

I don’t know why he finds this surprising? The US is the dominant power in this region, and members of subordinated or “challenger” nations always have an intense need to understand the inner workings of the big imperial power. It is often a matter of sheer survival to be able to do so. I have always found that any random group of non-Americans, anywhere in the world, knows a lot more about the internal workings of US politics and society than any random group of US citizens knows about the internal workings of any other society, including neighboring Canada or Mexico. It is not just a question of the near-saturation of the world’s public media with US-made cultural products, though that is one factor. But even more concretely, it is dictated by the intense need that members of weaker nations have to be able to understand the imperial power so they can optimize their chances of surviving under its domination…
And then, I’m not sure that Stan or anyone should easily jump to the conclusion that the desire of Middle Easterners to study America is “encouraging”, as such– except inasmuch as it indicates that there exists a large desire to understand other people across even some extremely thorny political divides. But if, as presenter Scott Lucas said– and I agree– we should be trying to decenter America within the global discourse, then we should applaud efforts by Middle Easterners to study Chinese society, or Indian society, or the cultures of Latin America or Europe as being equally “encouraging.” Perhaps, above all, we should consider the efforts of academics anywhere to look objectively at– and do something about– the situation of their own societies to be the most encouraging step of all?
From this perspective, I think maybe one of the biggest and most lasting outcomes the conferences might have been the participation in it of around two dozen US scholars. These were mainly not scholars of the Middle East, but scholars in one or another portion of “American studies”. So by coming to Lebanon– a country that throughout the past decades of US hegemony in the Middle East has been buffeted around by the political forces loosed on the region by that hegemony– these American Americanists probably had a bigger chance to learn something about their (our) country’s real role in the world than they would have from consuming thousands of hours of CNN or other parts of the MSM. They had the chance, in Beirut, to meet as colleagues with peers from Iran, Palestine, and other “exotic” and demonized countries. They had the chance to go and witness at first hand some of the effects that the US’s strong support (and heavy mid-war military re-supply) of Israel’s 2006 assault had on the people and country of Lebanon… What an excellent way for them to learn some more about America’s role in the world.
“Liberty” and “justice”, indeed.
I wish the conferences organizers had put the words in scare-quotes like that in the conference title? But I suppose the multiple ironies embedded within the title as it stood were plain enough to see.
Many of the American Americanists were interesting people. In his introductory remarks, CASAR director Patrick McGreevey did an effective job of underlining the ironies embedded in the “Liberty and Justice” title. Including, he reminded us of George W. Bush’s fall 2001 vow that he would “bring Osama bin Laden to justice– or bring justice to him,” which always struck me as a classic example of the misuse of the discourse of (true) justice.
First of all, what kind of justice would it be, that we would seek to bring OBL to? Would it look anything like the form of (miscarriage of) justice to which Saddam Hussein was brought? A hastily convened, US-dominated kangaroo court, which issues a death sentence and then carries it out in an extremely inflammatory manner?
I’m reminded of the words of ANC leader Rejoyce Mabudhafasi when I asked her what she wished had been done to the authors and upholders of the apartheid system– and she said something like, “We could never be the kind of people who do to them what they did to us, and nor would we want to be. So I think only the Almighty can decide what to do to ‘bring justice’ to them.” I do feel that way about OBL– though I am of course also strongly of the opinion that the man’s capacity for doing harm and violence, which he retains to this day, urgently needs to be incapacitated, a goal that can be achieved in any number of ways…
And then, what sort of justice might it be, that we would seek to bring to OBL? I don’t imagine that GWB was thinking of assembling a traveling courtroom and then parachuting the whole thing in, black robes and lawyers and lawbooks and all, once the US military had found OBL, wherever he might be by that point. I rather strongly suspect that the “justice” GWB was thinking of bringing to him instead was a targeted assassination– such as the US and Israel have made something of a habit of carrying out against suspected adversaries over recent years.
But that is, it seems to me, a profound abuse of the whole concept of justice. And not one that we should just slyly wink at, or go along with.
… Anyway, I realize I’m getting off the topic a little here. I just want to say I really appreciated the opportunity to be at the conference. I met some really interesting people and heard some great discussions. It also felt really good to be able to re-connect a little with some of my friends in Beirut, though sadly I didn’t have nearly enough time to re-connect with everyone I wanted to.
Oh, I did learn something very interesting indeed about the cluster bombs issue while I was there. This was from Timur Goksel, the wise and well-informed Turkish diplomat who was head of UNIFIL’s info operations from 1978 through 2002 or so. He said that one explanation he had heard for the Israelis stunningly large scale of use of cluster bombs was that the bombs were out of date and needed to be disposed of. So since disposal of any kinds of bombs is a not-cheap and sometimes risky business, the relevant decisionmakers in the IDF had thought why not lob all of those out-of-date cluster bombs into Lebanon and force Lebanon and the UN pay the price?
And as we all know, the price in human lives and livelihoods lost, as well as in $$$, has been huge– and it continues to be exacted to this day. I don’t have the figures easily to hand, but this late 2006 report from Haaretz says that the battalion commander of an IDF rocket unit “stated that the IDF fired around 1,800 cluster bombs, containing over 1.2 million cluster bomblets. By 30 August, 2006– just 16 days after the ceasefire went into effect– UN clearance experts had found “100,000 unexploded cluster bomblets at 359 separate sites” in south Lebanon.
The “dud rate” of the bomblets was reported at the time to be extremely high, and I do recall that some reports also noted that many of the cluster bombs that had been fired into Lebanon had had a production date of “1974” on them… So yes, the idea that the IDF might need to dispose of them seems to make a lot of sense.
Also, a large proportion of the cluster bombs that were fired were fired in the very last days of the war– during that strange and terrifying three-day period during after the terms of the ceasefire had already been agreed, but before it went into effect.

“Tonkin”-type escalation averted in Persian Gulf? Hearings?

The agility of the Iranian government’s information capabilities has protected the US from what could well be an attempt by some moles deep within the Pentagon to jerk our country into a broad and extremely damaging military conflagration with Iran. Now– as during that the worryingly similar Gulf of Tonkin Incident in 1964– the US Congress needs to react.
But this time Congress’s reaction should be of a very different kind. It should swiftly launch a thorough-going investigation into who in the Pentagon was responsible for producing and authenticating the very harmful (and quite possible knowingly misleading) video of the recent Persian Gulf incident that the Pentagon disseminated last Tuesday.
And it should ensure that secure communications channels are established between the US and Iranian naval forces operating in the Gulf, to prevent unintended escalations between the two forces as they maneuver in the Gulf’s tight confines.
Back in the 1964, US Pres. Lyndon Johnson claimed that Vietnamese naval ships had attacked US navy ships in the Gulf of Tonkin. A congressional resolution followed that gave permission for a considerable escalation of US military power against Vietnam. By the time the falsity of the original claims had been discovered, it was far, far too late.
This week, some officials somewhere in the US military chain of command– it is unclear exactly where– reported that on Sun., Jan. 6, Iranian patrol boats, operating off the coast of their own country there in the Persian Gulf, had been streaming towards US naval vessels operating there (thousands of miles away from the US), and that a voice on the commonly used CB-type radio channel through which the commanders of ships operating in the Gulf’s tight confines communicate had warned: “I am coming to you. … You will explode after … minutes.”
On Tuesday, shortly before he left on his current tour of Mideast countries, Pres. G.W. Bush blamed Tehran for for having acted provocatively, as he prepared to take his warning that “Iran is a threat” in person, to Israel and the US’s Arab allies.
Here’s AFP from Washington, on Tuesday:

    “We viewed it as a provocative act. It is a dangerous situation and they should not have done it, pure and simple,” Bush declared in his first public remarks on Sunday’s incident in the Strait of Hormuz.
    Shortly after he spoke, the Pentagon released a video and audio tape that appeared to confirm its charge that Iranian speedboats swarmed three US warships in the Strait and radioed a threat to blow them up.
    “My message today to the Iranians is, they shouldn’t have done what they did,” he added. “I don’t know what their thinking was, but I’m telling you what I think it was, I think it was a provocative act.”

But now, reports are proliferating that that the Pentagon video may well have been doctored, or for other reasons may not have been what it seemed.
Mike Nizza has an excellent round-up of the affair, here.
One crucial piece of evidence in all this is a video that Iran’s own PressTV media organization released, and posted on its website, which purported to be original video shot by an officer on one of the patrol boats. I’m not on a fast internet connection here so can’t view it all. Nizza writes:

    The clip is a bit over 5 minutes long. The first few minutes are views of coalition warships shot from smaller boats (if you thought the motorboats seemed to be moving fast in the American video, wait until you see the bow waves on the warships). In the latter portion, we see an Iranian on the boat using a microphone handset to hail “coalition warship 73″ by radio, in fairly clear but accented English, and we hear responses in an American voice…

He also refers to an NYT paper-edition article by Nazila Fathi from Tehran, in which Fathi contributes her own significant remark about the Pentagon’s video that

    The audio includes a heavily accented voice warning in English that the Navy warships would explode. However, the recording carries no ambient noise — the sounds of a motor, the sea or wind — that would be expected if the broadcast had been made from one of the five small boats that sped around the three-ship American convoy.

She also writes– though this may have been reported by Thom Shanker from Washington– that,

    Pentagon officials said they could not rule out that the broadcast might have come from shore, or from another ship nearby, although it might have come from one of the five fast boats with a high-quality radio system.

Sadly, those Pentagon officials remain unidentified. The “official” view from the Pentagon, including from Secdef Robert Gates, remains that the video their people had released on Tuesday was the real thing.
This section of that report was interesting:

    The Pentagon immediately dismissed the assertion that the [original] video, which shows Iranian speedboats maneuvering around and among the Navy warships, had been fabricated. Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman, said Iran’s “allegation is absurd, factually incorrect and reflects the lack of seriousness with which they take this serious incident.”
    Naval and Pentagon officials have said that the video and audio were recorded separately, then combined. On Wednesday, Pentagon officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak officially, said they were still trying to determine if the transmission came from the speedboats or elsewhere.

So many things are going on here!
The video and audio were “recorded separately”? Huh? And then, un-named Pentagon officials speaking on background say they’re not sure if the threats as originally reported had even come from the people on the patrol boats, but may have come from elsewhere?
Nizza’s blog post gives some useful background about how access to the CB channel in question, Ch.16, is extremely random, and what gets transmitted on it includes lots of very trivial, entertainment-style or name-calling noise. I’ll note that I’ve been calling for a long time now for a secure, dedicated military-to-military hot-line between the US and Iranian naval commanders in the Gulf, which could certainly help avert the possibility of any malignant (or even just “jokingly” irresponsible) third party being able to jerk the two navies into the broad military conflagration that– I still think– neither of them wants.
I still believe that the US military high command, up to and including Centcom commander Adm. William Fallon, and probably also the overall military leader, Joint Chiers Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen, is strongly opposed to any escalation against Iran, which would almost certainly push the already unsustainably overstretched US military into a quite un-“winnable” war with Iran. So I am really not sure why Secdef Gates, who has also gone on the record urging a risk-averse stance towards Iran, was so definitive in telling a press conference yesterday that, “I have no question whatsoever about the [original] report on this incident from the captains of the ships and also from the video itself.”
We all, certainly, need to know what’s been going on inside the Pentagon itself on this issue. Which office there was it, precisely, that was responsible for releasing the original video? If the audio and video on it were indeed recorded separately, who was responsible for combining them in the way they were combined? I’m thinking that if some “joker” somewhere did voice this threat into Channel 16, then someone combining that with some video footage from the theater would already have a potentially wide variety of video clips to choose from… So why choose this one?
Also, is the audio portion of that feed actually time-stamped to be synchronous with the video portion of it?
Also, if you are running a video camera to record this incident– not unusually, since apparently both sides were already doing it– then why not run the audio associated with that actual video feed?
Also, who in the chain of command signed off on the “authenticity” of the compiled audio/video and authorized its dissemination?
Also, more importantly, it looks as if there are some offices in the Pentagon that may well be complicit in an effort to jerk the US into a conflagration with Iran. Who are they? When will the Pentagon identify them for the US citizenry?
We urgently need congressional hearings into this whole incident, so we can be confident that there are not moles inside our own military who would jerk our country into a disastrous war. The whole incident needs to be investigated rapidly and completely– and certainly not just within the Pentagon itself.
As a final note, I just want to underline the hugely increased role that “information engagement” plays in today’s military encounters or proto-encounters. The fact that the Iranians had recorded, and have been able to disseminate, their own video version of this same encounter changes things completely from the version Bush proclaimed on Tuesday. (And I don’t recall that back on Tuesday or Wednesday anyone was questioning the authenticity or integrity of that original Pentagon video. It was only after the Iranians started challenging it and distributed their own video record of the incident that questions started arising about the US version?)
This equalization of the international “information battlefield” between the stronger powers and the weaker powers in the world is a phenomenon that is deeply transforming the nature of warfare in the present age.
In Lebanon in 2006, Hizbullah was able to (a) safeguard the integrity of its own communications and means of near real-time dissemination of information, while also (b) hacking in some instances into the IDF’s communications. Those capabilities were an important component of Hizbullah’s survival through that long and punishing war, and therefore of their victory in it. (Even though they were weakened in several important respects by it, Israel’s strategic position was weakened even more.)
So this week, we have not had a Gulf of Tonkin incident. Thank God!!! What we should have, though, is another kind of congressional follow-up to this alarming incident: a formal enquiry into the whole story about the provenance and dissemination of the Penatgon’s Tuesday video. And legislation mandating the creation of a secure hot-line between the US and Iran.

Calm in Lebanon?

Lebanon does not have a president, and has only a caretaker government. The deadlock over how the next ruling coalition (president plus PM plus cabinet) is to be composed continues… There have been a couple of incidents in the south of the country– one in which a UN peacekeeping patrol was targeted, and one in which a couple of Katyushas were fired over the border into Israel… Many parts of the broader Middle East are tense because of President Bush’s imminent visit to the region and the near-clash between US and Iranian naval forces yesterday in the Persian Gulf. Normally, any such regional tensions could be expected to lead to a rise in tensions inside Lebanon.
But here’s the thing: the little part of Ras Beirut where I’ve been staying since Friday seems remarkably calm and free of tensions or fears of imminent escalations of violence. And so, as far as I can see, do the major Lebanese media.
I’d expected that talk about the political crisis here and the fears of descent into renewed civil strife might dominate the conversations of Lebanese friends and colleagues. They really haven’t. People seem, in general, to be sullenly habituated to the idea that the present uneasy status quo might continue for quite a while. It’s not that things are great here; everyone seems to recognize that. But there is not the degree of fear, and of concomitant political and physical mobilizations for fighting that I thought I might find.
I guess the big confrontations among internal forces came in 2005: the big Hariri memorial march of March 14; and then the equally big pro-Hizbullah and FPM march of the month that followed. Since then there has been, basically, a stand-off between these two huge blocs within the Lebanese body politic. The M14 people won some gains, of course, with the Syrian withdrawal and other developments at that time. But the Hizbullah-led bloc made some gains with the political outcome of the 33-day war in mid-2006. Neither of those shifts was decisive.
In December ’06, Hizbullah and FPM launched their big “sit-in around the Serail” to try to force the M14’s PM, Fuad Suiniora, out of office. But that didn’t work– and neither were the government forces able to end the sit-in by force and open up the Hariri-created New Downtown for (Saudi shopping-led) “business as usual.” So the stalemate between the two sides became routinized. The large forests of the protesters’ tents still stand in many open areas of the downtown– but they are largely empty.
Not having a president or a government continues the routinization of the stalemate. The atmosphere, in general, seems to be, “It’s not wonderful, but we can live with it. And it sure is better than doing anything that could risk another war.”
I’d like to note the wisdom and maturity with which all those legitimately involved in internal Lebanese politics have worked to prevent any resumption of (or slide into) outright civil war over the past three years. Of course the country hasn’t been violence-free in these years: there have been 14 or is it 15 ghastly car-bomb attacks against pro-M14 figures; between them, these have killed scores of people. There was also the really inhumane fighting in and around the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp over this summer, which was provoked by salafi jihadists who had congregated there from many parts of the Muslim world. They were then answered with a massive use of force on the part of the Lebanese army, accompanied by many horrendous atrocities against the residents of the camp…
Once again, the poor Palestinian civilians there, who have no protection against either the implantation of the salafists or the depradations of the Lebanese Army, were showing that being stateless in today’s world is to exist in a situation of extreme vulnerability.Once again, they were the punching bags of Lebanese political forces who sought to use violence against them for their own political ends. (In this case, the anti-Palestinian battles served to unite Lebanese from many factions around Army Commander Michel Suleiman, as the next President… The streets here are now plastered with posters hailing him as “The saviour.”)
So it is not that there is no political violence here. There is. But still, it feels very different from I was here when the country was poised on a knife-edge, in April 1975.
I am willing to admit I could be completely wrong! I have only been here four days, much of it doing things other than doing reportorial investigations. Maybe somewhere just out of my current (necessarily constricted) line of sight, some political forces or small dedicated networks are working hard to produce some kind of massive crisis that could embroil the whole country– and maybe, a large enough proportion of Lebanese would become jolted by that into resuming their civil war. But somehow, things just don’t feel that way…

Bush; Middle East trip; Nixon

Our justifiably beleaguered president, G.W. Bush has been describing how he sees his “legacy” to the world in a breathtaking series of interviews with Hebrew-language and Arabic-language media. The WaPo’s Dan Froomkin has provided a helpful digest of these interviews, here. You can read the whole texts as posted on the White House website, on the sidebar here.
From Froomkin:

    “I can predict that the historians will say that George W. Bush recognized the threats of the 21st century, clearly defined them, and had great faith in the capacity of liberty to transform hopelessness to hope, and laid the foundation for peace by making some awfully difficult decisions,” Bush told Yonit Levi of Israel’s Channel 2 News…

And so it goes on. And on and on and on…
Froomkin, quite accurately, describes Bush’s utterances as “particularly delusional as he heads to a region that remains traumatized, angry and distrustful on account of Bush’s disastrous war in Iraq, his antagonism of Iran and his perceived crusade against Islam.” He also notes that

    Bush’s self-image contrasts sharply with his image among his fellow Americans… [A] CNN poll in November found that 58 percent of Americans rated Bush either a poor president, a very poor president, or the worst president ever.

So why is this sad sack of a guy being foisted onto the peoples of the Middle East at this time? I guess a first explanation might be simply that he is delusional. He really does not see the effect he has had on the world. (If you read the longer texts of these interviews, though, you’ll see that he repeatedly argues that “we can’t really judge the Bush presidency today, or for a very long time into the future….” Which means he probably is aware, if not of the effects of his actions on others, then at least of his low popularity figures.)
Another strong possible sign of his delusionality might be the degree to which he speaks about himself in these interviews in the third person.
From reading Froomkin I also learned of this recent WaPo op-ed in which the venerable former Senator George McGovern argued for Bush’s impeachment. McGovern noted that back in 1974, when calls to impeach Pres. Nixon were gathering steam, he had stood aside from that campaign, because he thought if he joined it that would look like an act of political vengeance against the man who had beaten him in the 1972 presidential election.
But then comes this zinger:

    [T]he case for impeaching Bush and Cheney is far stronger than was the case against Nixon and Vice President Spiro T. Agnew after the 1972 election. The nation would be much more secure and productive under a Nixon presidency than with Bush. Indeed, has any administration in our national history been so damaging as the Bush-Cheney era?

He notes correctly that neither party in the Congress seems eager to start impeacghment hearings. But he writes:

    Bush and Cheney are clearly guilty of numerous impeachable offenses. They have repeatedly violated the Constitution. They have transgressed national and international law. They have lied to the American people time after time. Their conduct and their barbaric policies have reduced our beloved country to a historic low in the eyes of people around the world. These are truly “high crimes and misdemeanors,” to use the constitutional standard.

I I drew a different comparison here yesterday between late-Nixon and late-Bush, noting that Bush’s desperate attempt to get out of Washington and foist himself on the Middle East looked strangely evocative of the foreign trips Nixon made during his last months in office in 1974. One of those Nixon trips was indeed also to the Middle East. Someone who knows a lot about that era recalled to me recently that one of the strangest things that happened was when, during a meeting with the whole Israeli cabinet, someone raised the question of what to do about terrorism. Nixon replied that he knew what should be done! He jumped to his feet, assumed the crouch of a Chicago gangster and whirled his imaginary machine-gun around in front of him in a way that, if the gun had existed, would have mowed down the whole Israeli cabinet. “That’s what should be done!” he told the astonished cabinet members.
I wonder if GWB’s particular form of delusionality also involves amateur theatrics?

Bush in Middle East: Region underwhelmed/ aghast

President Bush’s determination to leave Washington tomorrow for a week-long overseas trip looks strangely evocative of Nixon’s disaster-plagued last year in office. The lucky hosts of Bush on his out-of-DC wanderings will be Israel (twice), Palestine (very briefly), Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
McClatchy’s Warren Strobel notes accurately that

    Bush, who once had grand ambitions to transform the Middle East through democratic reform, is to begin his first extended presidential visit to the region Tuesday with his sights lowered and his ability to influence events fading fast.

I would say that’s already a under-statement. In fact, I’ve been wondering how the decisionmaking on planning this trip was undertaken. Did the leaders of all these countries transmit warm and hearty invitations to the US President that he couldn’t turn down?
Or, did Washington propose these visits, and the Arab rulers involved found they had no way to squirm out of their duties as US satraps in the region?
Somehow, I doubt if it was the former train of events that occurred… Regarding Palestine, Xinhua has this interesting little round-up of the reactions of the various movements to Bush’s visit. The reporter there quotes high-level Fateh legislator Abdullah Abdullah as being decidedly lukewarm about the visit– while the Hamas and Islamic Jihad spokespeople are, quite predictably, scathing in the extreme.
Only Israel’s Ehud Olmert– who is still eager to distract attention from the imminent publication of the (most likely politically problematic) second part of the Winograd Report– can be expected to be warm toward the idea of hosting this particular guest. For all the other hosting leaders, Bush’s presence will most likely be viewed as something between a political embarrassment and the cause of a decidedly unwelcome additional security threat to themselves. Al-Qaeda has, after all, openly called on its supporters in the Muslim world to meet Bush’s visit with “bombs and booby-trapped vehicles.”
Not quite what the domestically unpopular and already hard-pressed rulers in Egypt and Jordan need at this time…
Regarding the political embarrassment for all these leaders, of having these visits serve to remind their citizens yet again of the these regimes’ close ties with George Bush’s Washington, the best way to gauge this will be to look for the amount and quality of media coverage that the government-influenced media in these countries give to Bush visit. My prediction is that most of them will try to cut such coverage down to a bare minimum. But let’s see…

Watching Hizbullah TV

Another benefit of being here in Lebanon is being able to watch Hizbullah’s TV station, al-Manar. I have only watched a little of it on this trip– certainly, nothing like a “representative sample” of their programing. (Oh, I just saw on the crawl at the bottom there just now that Israel’s Winograd Commission has announced it will delay publication of the weighty second portion of its report into the failings of the 33-day war until January 30. Could that possibly be, um, a slightly politicized decision?)
Anyway, I did want to blog about a fascinating children’s program I saw on the channel on Friday afternoon. I’d been working rather hard for some hours by then, doing some close editing/revision work on my Re-engage book, and by late afternoon I just wanted a break. So I was flipping channels on the t.v. in the hotel room and came to Manar, in the middle of a kid’s program called, I think, “Bayt al-Boyout.” (“House of many homes”). The very able main presenter was a young-ish woman dressed in hijab in different shades of blue, who was sitting in a set like a beautiful big children’s playroom– with a sign-language interpreter sitting beside her. The presenter (I never did catch her name) was conducting a conversation with a group of some four or five cute-looking kids of around 5-7 years old, all of whom were either blind, severely visually impaired, or deaf; and the presenter was conducting normal kindergarten-type activities with them, including reading then a story and asking them questions.
What was excellent about this program in my view was the light but intentionally educational way in which the presenter showed viewers that these are full, normal, human children who happen to be differently abled. When she conversed with the two deaf kids, she did so “through” the sign-language interpreter. There was even a little cartouche in the bottom-left of the screen where the signer’s work was constantly on display for viewers with hearing disabilities.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything on kids-with-disabilities in many hours of watching children’s programing in the US that was as well done as this. (But that was a long time ago, I guess.) Also, this program was thankfully not interrupted by any ads– for gross sugary drinks or foods, or anything else.
Toward the end, the presenter developed one of the topics mentioned in the children’s book she had just read to the kids, and asked two or three of the children if they had ever argued with their younger siblings. The kids she asked said “Yes,” and said the arguments had been over toys or the t.v. “And what did you do?” she asked. Both the kids said, “I hit my little brother [or sister}.” The presenter continued by asking: “And then what happened? Did that solve the problem?” Each kid in turn said No, that the little sib just became peskier yet… So then the presenter said that it would be probably be more productive for the kids to talk about their disagreements/ concerns/ complaints to the sibling, rather than hitting them, and in that way they could work out how to take turns with the toy in question or the t.v. program, and still stay good friends with them.
Doesn’t this seem like a good lesson for any children’s show, anywahere, to leave with its viewers?
Isn’t it interesting that the kids’ show produced by Hizbullah is promulgating this message?
Now, Hizbullah’s political leadership has never publicly expressed any desire to solve its problems with Israel through discussion rather than force. But– and this is a big caveat– it has always been eager to be included in indirect negotiations with Israel and other parties over the terms for a ceasefire in the hostilities between them; and once ceasefires have been agreed, it has generally stuck to their terms quite carefully. Its observance of previously agreed ceasefires– in 1993, 1996, and 2006– has not been total. But its infractions have been considerably less serious and numerous than those of Israel.
And meantime, the US– and Israel– both steadfastly stick to and repeatedly proclaim their political stance of refusing to sit down and deal with their grievances against Hizbullah through discussions rather than through force. (Though, as we have seen, when they have found themselves in an impossibly tight corner they have been prepared, in practice, to sit down and negotiate an indirect ceasefire with them.)
So maybe the political leaderships on all these sides would benefit from sitting down– separately, if they prefer this– to watch this educational episode of “Bayt al-Boyout”, so they can learn some lessons about how talking through differences is better than simply lashing out with violence and intimidation against the other party?
But it occurs to me that Israel and the US are both physically far, far stronger than Hizbullah, and both have used violence on a far grander scale than anything Hizbullah has ever used. So perhaps they both need to learn the program’s lesson about not hitting your younger siblings even more than anyone else?

Laila and Nur; Rami

So I see Laila el-Haddad has announced her baby’s birth now. She has fabulous pics there of adorable little Nur (= “Light”… very Quaker!) alone, and of Nur with her Dad, her proud big brother, and with the ever-beautiful Laila herself.
As the first commenter on that post there says, “May she grow up in a free and peaceful Palestine!”
As Laila says there, she did indeed take her laptop to the hospital with her, and on Wednesday or so she and I had a great little IM session in which she told me all about the speedy delivery. (I had earlier told her about the very speedy delivery of my second child, name of Leila, in Beirut back in 1979, so we recalled that conversation, too.)
And talking of fun interactions with fellow-bloggers… since I’m here in Lebanon I took the opportunity to meet Rami Zuraik, author of Land and People. Meeting Rami was every bit as rewarding as I had hoped. Turns out we have huge numbers of concerns and many friends in common.
We talked a bit about the US elections. He said that he felt US influence over the whole world is so great that people everywhere are strongly affected by the US political process. True enough. So he said he felt, actually, like a completely unenfranchized citizen of the US. (Correct me if I phrased that poorly, Rami.) I told him about the theory I’ve expounded here a number of times in recent years, to the effect that the relationship between the US citizenry and the world’s 6-billion-p-lus non-Americans is analogous to the apartheid-era relationship between the South African “Whites” and the country’s completely unenfranchized majority…
Also, it turn out I was wrong when I wrote about Rami’s blog here, back in November, when I said he is Palestinian. He is indeed, as (yet another) Leila noted there, Lebanese, and married to a Palestinian.
We talked about a huge number of really important and interesting things, though only scratching the surface of all there was to say. In response to Vadim, who commented here yesterday that I have burned up a huge amount of carbon to get here to Lebanon, I would say that a conversation like the one I had with Rami Zuraik, or others that I’ve had while here, are quite impossible to have in a non-physical encounter– though my experience is that once I’ve met someone in person, that establishes a level of mutual understanding from which it’s possible to continue to have great communications through electronic media.
Also, without getting defensive here, I should note that from Lebanon I’ll be traveling– overland– to Syria for a week; and I hope the combined results of all these meetings in both countries make my CO2 emissions more justifiable?

I’m in Lebanon; thoughts on Obama, etc

We traveled to Lebanon on Thursday/Friday. Learned in Frankfurt airport about Barack Obama’s big victory in Iowa. Great news!! Got to Beirut and discovered my bag hadn’t. So I’m sitting here in one of Bill’s shirts waiting for the bag, which Lufthansa promises will turn up this afternoon.
Once again, dealing with this seven-hour time difference gives me just a tiny taste of how disorienting any sleep deprivation can be. It therefore seems clear that prolonged and systematically applied s.d. regimes, such as U.S. operatives have practised against detainees in the colonial wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and against detainees in Guantanamo and elsewhere, can cause severe damage to a person’s sense of her/himself and thereby considerably corrode the independent human personality… And that is, after all, the aim of all torture.
(I am NOT claiming that the slight disorientation I have suffered is at all commensurate with the mental incapacitation suffered by the US government’s detainees. Of course, it is a known risk, that I have voluntarily and knowingly assumed. And it is already almost past. But experiencing it is a good reminder of the reality and gravity of the much bigger problem.)
But back to Obama– a much happier thought. I have already read a lot of commentary about his victory. One of the main points I’ve noted is that the engrossing contest within the Democratic primary process in Iowa succeeded in bringing out huge numbers of new participants in the complicated process of the party’s caucus system.
That is great news– including, that it is a great portent for the general election that will take place November 4. Getting a strong turnout in the polls November 4 will be key to a democratic victory. And it is, of course, an excellent portent for the health of US democracy looking into the future, too.
Turnout for the Democratic caucuses in Iowa was 239,000. Perhaps this was the greatest number ever? I’m not sure. But anyway, it was far, far higher than most people’s expectations. It’s a high figure, too, if you remember that people had to commit to turning out on a very cold night and to spending several hours participating in the whole caucusing system. Much more complicated than simply casting a single primary ballot, which is all the Iowa Republicans had to do… And for them, the turnout rate was, I think, less than 100,000.
Another item I picked up was that Obama did better than Hillary among all groups of women in the state, except for women over 65. That’s interesting, because Hillary has tried to position herself as very much the choice for women. In Iowa, there is only a tiny sliver of African-American population, so if we take a “demographic-likeness” view of voting, then Obama had little “natural” base for his campaign there. What he proved instead was his ability to transcend many different kinds of demographic boundaries.
What does Obama represent, for me? I still have the excitement for him that I had when I went to see him in person at the end of October. I realize he is not everything I would like to a candidate to be. I wish he could speak more constructively on the Palestinian issue, the need for a complete withdrawal from Iraq, and the need for a universal health-care system. But after eight years of harsh Bush partisanship I like Obama’s willingness to try to transcend a position of strict partisanship. I really like that he is not just a re-tread of disappointing times past, as Hillary is. I like that his youthfulness could draw more Americans into active participation in the political system. I like his “difference” from the same-old-same-old that has stifled American politics for so long.
I have to say that I also really dislike Hillary trying to “claim” all of Bill Clinton’s experience and record as President as somehow also accruing to her “experience account” while also presenting herself as a person of independent accomplishment… And also her convenient omission of the fact that the one thing her husband did explicitly– if not entirely constitutionally– entrust to her care during his presidency, namely an overhaul of the health-care system, turned out to be a disastrous failure and a setback to the campaign for decent health-care; and the cause of that failure was in large part her gross mismanagement of the reform project.
So Obama’s victory in Iowa looks really exciting to me. I hope he can take some good momentum forward to the next primaries, in New Hampshire and South Carolina. (S.C. will be a good test of whether he can attract some solid support from white folk in the south and not just in demure, well-meaning Iowa.)
By the way, the main thing I came to Lebanon for is this conference at AUB. Then, I’m going to Syria.

Note on “caucus systems”, Iowa and Iraq

The complex system of party caucuses used by the Democratic party in Iowa is very similar to the system that US overlord L. Paul Bremer proposed introducing in Iraq, back in 2004-2005. Ayatollah Ali Sistani strongly opposed that, and succeeded through street demonstrations etc in persuading Bremer to have the nationwide “party list” system that the US authorities eventually used for the successive elections there, 2005 and 2006, instead.
At the time, I strongly supported Sistani’s argument that the caucus system seemed complex, non-transparent, and very vulnerable to manipulation by the occupying power. The election system advocated by Sistani did not, in the end, generate a national government that did very much– if anything at all– of value to the country’s citizens. But the reasons for that lay not in the system of elections, but in many other political factors…
But perhaps I was wrong to judge at that time that, in the absence of credible promise from the US occupiers that they would refrain from intervening in Iraq’s political system, any system of elections could have been expected to generate a national governing body capable of both providing decent basic services to the Iraqi people and defending their interests against all intrusions including those of the occupying power?
At the time, though, I judged that the strength of the popular movement that Sistani seemed capable of mobilizing would continue to be able to defend the integrity of any national leadership generated through the election system. I was wrong in that judgment. For reasons that i don’t fully understand (though I should have paid more attention to this possibility), Sistani withdrew from playing any direct active role in Iraqi politics once he had made his big “point” about the election system… And in the absence of his playing any role, it was the smaller, much more partisan-minded parties that took the initiative in the Shiite community, with the generally catastrophic results that we have seen over the two years since the January 2006 election.
So in the end, did the choice of which electoral system to use make much difference? Perhaps not…

Kenya: violence, nonviolence, moral authority

I’ve been watching the news of this week’s violence in Kenya with huge concern. Many of the news reports speak of horrors similar to those experienced in eruptions of mass inter-group violence anywhere in the world. Particularly terrifying: the reports of people who were previously good neighbors and close personal friends to each other suddenly becoming polarized into violence and hatred along the lines of some supposedly “essential” difference. This kind of sudden, hate-filled fanaticism can overtake any communities, our own included.
How to guard against it? By continuously teaching and re-teaching the value of all human lives, and trying to live out that commitment; by calming fears; by using all the moral authority anyone can muster in order to call for nonviolence, de-escalation, and the peaceable resolution of outstanding conflicts.
I have noted, regarding the present post-election violence in Kenya, that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon was much, much faster off the mark– by a matter of days– than anyone in the Bush administration in exercising the kind of moral leadership that Kenya’s citizens and parties so sorely need to hear.
Yesterday, Condi Rice did finally get around to issuing a statement— jointly with UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband– that included a call for a cessation of violence and noted that there had been “independent reports of serious irregularities in the counting process” in the country’s recent elections.
However, that statement came an agonizing five days after Rice, in the immediate aftermath of the heavily disputed December 27 election, had rushed to congratulate former President Mwai Kibaki on his electoral “victory.” That, even as election monitors from the EU and possibly also from US-based organizations were raising enormous doubts about the integrity of the election.
Rice’s moral authority was considerably compromised by that. (Of course, the administration for which she works also bears the burden of having grabbed the election of 2000 by some very questionable means.)
How wonderful, therefore, that yesterday, presidential candidate Barack Obama— the son of a Kenyan father and an American mother– issued his own call for a peaceful resolution of the controversies that divide Kenyans. (Other Democratic candidates hurried to follow suit.)
Meanwhile, this AP report says that the State department is now steadfastly refusing to reiterate its earlier endorsements of Kibaki’s claimed victory.
I should note here that Kenya also has the largest group of Quakers any country in the world. I imagine they are also adding their weight to the calls for de-escalation, dialogue, and trust restoration in the country. (If anyone can find any news about the peacebuilding activities of Quakers or other faith groups in Kenya, do please tell us about that on the comments board here. Thanks!)