U.S. in Iraq: Good-bye ‘Conditionality’

It is now official: The US government will not be imposing on the Iraqi government any of the ‘conditionality’– as a precondition for the US troop pullback/withdrawal– that the Bush administration, Congress (and numerous Washington think tanks) had all previously demanded.
I called this outcome back in June when I started noting (e.g. here) that the political balance in Baghdad between the US and the Iraqi government had tipped in the Iraqis’ favor. That meant that Washington would no longer be able to impose its conditions on the Iraqis as a “prerequisite” for any drawdown or full withdrawal of the US troop presence in the country. And today we can see that that has indeed been the case.
The main forms of conditionality required by the Democratic-controlled Congress was a set of “benchmarks” the Baghdad government should reach regarding Iraq’s own internal governance system. The Bush administration placed some emphasis on those benchmarks, but it was probably far more intent on winning as much freedom of action for the US military inside Iraq as possible, and if at all possible not to have any terminal date placed on this.
All those forms of conditionality have now been tossed overboard.
The latest– possibly final?– version (Word doc here) of the US -Iraqi SOFA makes clear that all US troops must be out of Iraq by the end of 2011; that the US troops must be withdrawn from all Iraqi cities by June 30, 2009; that control of the “Green Zone”– once also known as the “International Zone”– will pass into Iraqi hands as of January 1, 2009; that US-employed contractors will enjoy no special immunity from Iraqi jurisdiction after that date; and that in most other respects Iraq will regain its real national sovereignty on January 1, 2009.
Neither this SOFA nor any other current agreement between the two parties that I know of makes any mention of the US having any veto power over Iraq’s internal governance system.
I describe the current version of the SOFA agreement only as “possibly final” because the Iraqi parliament has yet to ratify it, an action that it proposes doing next Wednesday. Inside Iraq, despite the many concessions PM Maliki has wrung out of Washington during the six-month course of this negotiation, there is still significant opposition from the Sadrists to having any American troops remaining for as long as the next three years; and some Kurds and Sunnis have other objections to the current text. So the agreement is not yet a done deal; and it is possible Maliki may yet seek– and win– further concessions from the US side, especially regarding the timing of the final withdrawal.
On the US side, it has been notable both that (a) the Bush administration has argued that this agreement does not, as treaties do, require any ratification from the Senate in order to go into force; and (b) the Democratic leaders of the Senate have made no attempt whatever, throughout the months this SOFA has been in negotiation, to claim this prerogative.
Indeed, after all the bluff and bluster the Congressional Democrats generated last year when they spelled out the “benchmarks” they wanted to impose on the Iraqi government, their silence now that this SOFA is coming close to fruition has been quite deafening. Only Rep. William Delahunt, the chair of a relatively low-level sub-committee in the lower house, has shown any real interest in the subject at all.
Why won’t our Congressional leaders start asking some of the very real hard questions that need asking about why this outcome– the restoration of real Iraqi sovereignty with no longterm US troop presence– was not achieved back in late 2003, instead of the two countries having to go through all the terrible pain, suffering, and costs that have been imposed on them both, but especially on Iraqis, in the five years that have passed since then?
(Maybe because so many members of Congress still clung to the neo-imperial illusion that the US not only could re-make distant nations according to its own plan– but also that it had somehow the right to… Hence the whole shameful history of “benchmarking”.)
I note, too, that just about the whole of the US MSM has colluded in this reluctance to pay serious attention to the question of the SOFA. Only McClatchy has done some– as usual, excellent– real reporting on it.
In this important article November 19, McClatchy’s Nancy Youssef started to unpack some of the negotiating history of the SOFA, from the US side. She identified some serious disagreements on the issue between different portions of the Bush administration, writing,

    senior military officials are privately criticizing President Bush for giving Iraq more control over U.S. military operations for the next three years than the U.S. had ever contemplated.

She quoted an un-named “senior administration official” as giving this explanation for the politics behind what happened:

    The officials said the biggest factor in the outcome was the Iraq government’s decision to re-schedule provincial elections from October until the end of January, which gave its negotiators strong arguments to drive a hard bargain.
    At the same time in Washington, political pressures generated by Obama’s victory, first in the primaries and then in the general election, led Bush to meet the Iraqi demands.

I don’t wholly buy that explanation. But there is a lot more of value in Youssef’s piece, which should certainly be required reading.
My question, though: Why have the “big” US MSM not thrown some of their own considerable resources into reporting on the “inside story” and the real, ever-evolving content of this negotiation?
Meantime, we should absolutely not forget that back on June 10, the Maliki government did sign a security agreement– with Iran.
Some of the implications of that agreement became evident yesterday when US forces who had detained an Iranian man at Baghdad airport were forced to release him, after Iraq’s deputy foreign minister interceded on his behalf…
For my part, I think the current text of the SOFA is worth supporting. I wish the deadline for all US troops to get out of Iraq was a lot sooner than the end of 2011 (though if both sides agree to terminate the presence sooner, that is still possible under the agreement; but extending its term is not.) But I am really glad that– in contradistinction both to longheld Bush administration and to Barack Obama’s long-held position on the matter– there is no provision in the text for a “continuing” US troop presence in Iraq of any type at all, even as a “non-combat” force.
I am concerned that there seems to be no reliable mechanism for mediating the internal political disputes that have already risen inside Iraq over the governance questions that will arise as the US troops withdraw from the cities over the coming months– and then later, from the whole country. Those disputes may well become a lot more intense in the months ahead. I would feel a lot more reassured if an explicit role for the UN had been written into this US troop withdrawal agreement– both to help the Baghdad government mediate any internal disputes and also, even more importantly, to help build a structure of agreements among Iraq’s neighbors to ensure that none feel they need to intervene militarily inside Iraq for whatever reason or pretext.
I note, however, that there is nothing to stop the Baghdad government from requesting such help from the UN (or, the Arab League; but that wouldn’t necessarily be the best way to draw Iran and Turkey into the needed negotiation.) Plus, the UN has a small but possibly quite effective presence inside Iraq, that could certainly be increased as necessary.
… Anyway, bottom line here: All of us who want to see the “rule of law” and rules of basic good, respectful behavior applied in the interactions among the world’s different nations should applaud this accord because it gives the US government no lasting reward for the act of international aggression it committed against the government and people of Iraq in 2003. We can still all work for more accountability for the US officials responsible for that act of aggression, and for some form of adequate reparations to be made to all those who have suffered from their heinous decision.
But seeing Washington being denied the chance to reap any direct and overt longterm political fruits from that act of aggression is an excellent first step.

US power declining. Duh.

So the US’s National Intel Council has finally released the ‘Global Trends 2025’ report that its analysts have been working on for many months now.
Gloom ‘n’ doom for many western analysts, including that BBC report linked to above, which offers the report’s ‘key points’ here.
The NIC’s head of analysis, Thomas Fingar, is not only smart but also politically savvy. Smart: Back in 2002 when he was head of intel analysis at the State Dept., his was one of one or two shops that steadfastly questioned the White House’s contention that Saddam had functioning WMDs. (So why didn’t Colin Powell listen to his own people on that? That is a very different question… )
Politically savvy: After he arrived at the NIC Fingar realized he had a lot of heavy lifting to do to rebuild the near-complete collapse of US public confidence, post-2003, in any “net assessments” coming out of the leading (as opposed to cosily inside-State) intel bodies. So he has been assiduous in cultivating public support for the NIC’s work, including by spreading little “advance snippets” of the present 2025 report around Washington DC throughout the past three months. I went to one “advance briefing” he gave on it, held at the New America Foundation back in was it late August?
Then in early Sept., he gave more snippets to the WaPo’s Walter Pincus and Joby Warrick, who duly wrote about it in this Sept. 10 story. (My commentary on that, here.)
Oh, but just recall all the things that have happened in the world since September 10! The US’s entire system of casino capitalism has collapsed, spreading contagion and resentment around the world. And the Bush administration’s attempts to force a long-term troop presence on the Iraqi government have all similarly collapsed…
The final version of Fingar’s report bravely states that, as of 2025, “The US will remain the single most important actor [in the world system] but will be less dominant.”
I wouldn’t be so sure about the first part of that prediction. We still have no final idea how low the US economy will be driven, how long it will languish there, and what form an eventual upturn might take. (Check out the discussion at MoA here.) Meantime, as I noted here, those other economies around the world that never did open up fully to the west’s invasive form of casino capitalism look much better positioned both to (a) weather the coming crisis, and (b) find ways to emerge from it building on the strength of their own much more tightly regulated financial and economic systems.
So Fingar tells us “The US will remain the single most important actor” in 2025? I truly doubt it.

Newsflash! Russia lets NATO trans-ship weapons to Afghanistan

The Kyiv Post reported yesterday that,

    Russia has granted NATO-member Germany permission to ship weapons and equipment for its force in Afghanistan overland through Russia, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday.

(HT: Afghanistan Conflict Monitor.)
So the Cold War really has ended and is not– despite the efforts of many– about to be cranked up again any time soon?
The Russians and the US have been in talks for some time about the US (or NATO, unclear) getting the right to ship non-lethal goods to Afghanistan through Russia. So this is new.
Check out the RIA Novosti links at the bottom of this Afghanistan Conflict Monitor page.
They do indeed confirm– from an authoritative Russian source– that Russia has now given this permission to both Germany and Spain.

Some great (but under-heard) experts on the Muslim world

The United States is deeply involved in the politics of the world’s scores of majority-Muslim countries, which in turn occupy a number of the top slots on Washington’s foreign-policy agenda. So why is the U.S. public discourse on the affairs of the Muslim world so heavily dominated by people who have little actual professional training or close familiarity with these countries? Why have the thousands of Americans– academics and others– who have such expertise been so broadly excluded from input into either policy or the mainstream public discussion about policy?
Our country has suffered very badly in recent years– in Iraq, and in many other parts of the world– from the exclusion, marginalization, and suppression of the expertise of the many thousands of Americans who know a lot about the majority-Muslim world.
How different will things be in the new era of President Barack (Hussein) Obama? We still need to wait and see. We need to look at a broad range of indicators about the tenor of public life and the climate of opinion both inside and outside the halls of government before we can find an answer. Inside government, will we once again see the entire team of people working on Arab-Israeli issues made up of people with strong pro-Israeli biases and precious little actual expertise in the affairs of the Arab world? Outside government, will we continue to see the op-ed pages of the major newspapers and the ranks of alleged “experts” on the Middle East paraded on the major t.v. shows dominated by people with similar bias and a similar lack of actual, proven expertise?
There are a few reasons for optimism. One is, of course, the election of Barack Obama himself. He won despite the circulation by his opponents of numerous rumors and attempted “smears” to the effect that he was “a secret Muslim” or “a secret Arab”, and that therefore his election would cause great harm to Israel and to America. Note the unspoken assumption that a person has to be either pro-Israeli or pro-Muslim: That’s polarizing zero-sum thinking at work for you, right there.
Obama and his campaign team overcame those slurs at the ballot-box. That shows that the fear-dominated, zero-sum approach used by his opponents was not ‘bought’ by the majority of those who voted. (Media bookers and think-tank heads around the US: take good note of the American people’s good sense!)
Another reason for optimism is quieter, though it was on good show Tuesday at an excellent program run by the Women’s Foreign Policy Group here in Washington, DC. What was on show was a program the Carnegie Corporation of New York has been running for four years now, which has sought to support the work of American scholars on the Muslim world. Each year, the program has offered “up to $100,000” to 20 scholars, for a total of 80 scholars having been supported in their work so far.
So on Tuesday, the WFPG brought eight of these Carnegie Scholars to Washington DC, and provided an excellent (though necessarily small-scale) show-case for their work. Fwiw, seven of the eight featured scholars were women– some at the mid-career stage, some of them senior scholars.
I was blown away by the quality and depth of these people’s work– and also, by the poised, very effective way they were able to present it.
My immediate thought was: Why do we not see a lot more of people like this in the government, on the op-ed pages of newspapers, and on the t.v. talk shows?
Let me say this again: Poised. Articulate. Knowledgeable. Women (in the main.) With real expertise on important aspects of Muslim society.
Why are these people not showcased, and their expertise not consulted, in most of our national discussions on how our country interfaces with the Muslim world?
Why do we nearly always have the the same-old-same-old lineups of (mainly) white guys, pro-Israelis, continuing to bloviate about whole societies and countries of which, in fact, many of them know very little… and doing so with the name of some big-time Washington think-tank or well-funded elite university program beside their names?
Real area expertise: There is no substitute for this, if our country is to have any hope of minimizing the damage that our continuing blundering around the Muslim world will cause to all of humanity (including ourselves), if nothing changes.
So who were these talented Carnegie Scholars?
Asma Asfaruddin, professor of Arabic and Islamic Studies at the University of Notre Dame, who has done ground-breaking work that has identified considerable support in the early Muslim texts for the values of tolerance, consensus, and effective political representation.
Elizabeth Thompson, a historian of the late colonial period in the Middle East. Her presentation focused on what she described as “the first, broadest, constitution-writing gathering ever held in the Middle East”. Baghdad 2004? No, Damascus 1920. It was convened by King Faisal and included participants from throughout the Mashreq, many deeply inspired by Woodrow Wilson; leading Islamic reformer Rashid Ridha was a major participant, contributing many very helpful ideas; even the question of women’s suffrage was discussed… But guess what? The French armies came hurtling into Damascus and that whole democratic experiment was summarily stifled… We need to remember all this stuff here in Washington, DC!
Elora Shehabuddin, professor of humanities and political science at Rice University, talked about the construction of the category of a “moderate” Arab or Muslim in recent US politics… and how this nearly always had to include support for Israel, for US foreign policy, and support for either a neoconservative or neoliberal ideology.
(In the discussion among those three, Asfaruddin noted that a certain facile form of “colonial feminism” had been pursued by many westerners in the Muslim world for a long time now. “Focusing on the need to unveil women has often been a very low-cost substitute for doing anything substantive to improve the lives of women and their families…”)
John Bowen, professor of arts and sciences at Washington University, St. Louis. He gave us a little sampler from the work he’s been doing on the many different patterns of Muslim life (and different patterns of Islamist affiliation) that have emerged in different European countries.
Susan Moeller, a professor of media and international affairs at the University of Maryland who previously worked as a press photographer. Moeller was the only panelist who is not a specialist in some area of Muslim life, and she has only just started her research under the Carnegie Scholars program. (I’m not sure what it is.) But she provided one very helpful vignette, from her early days as a war photographer, that illustrated the point that that there are many editorial filters that, in the MSM, frame and limit what it is that viewers are actually ever allowed to see or hear.
Lila Abu-Lughod, professor of anthropology and gender studies at Columbia. She memorably shared one vignette from some of her extensive field-work in Egypt: She had asked an Egyptian peasant woman she had known for a long time how a dispute about female inheritance might get worked out, and the woman referred to a multiplicity of possible sources for defining and protecting a woman’s rights, including the state’s laws, Egyptian t.v. soap-operas, local tradition, and the rulings of a locally renowned religious scholar. Textured, thought-provoking, and “real”!
Madhavi Sunder a visiting prof at the University of Chicago Law School (so maybe Obama knows her already?) She talked about the empowering effects numerous women in different parts of the Muslim world, including Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Mauretania, and even Iran have experienced from sitting with each other in small groups and undertaking their own careful reading of core Islamic texts as a way to strengthen their ability to engage in the public discussions in their countries on core issues in family law. She noted that women from these Sisters in Islam groups in Morocco succeeded, in 2004, in winning a new, more favorable Islamic Family Law… One conclusion: “Reading the Kor’an in Kuala Lumpur may actually be more momentous than reading Lolita in Tehran.”
Sunder also called directly on Obama to “express solidarity with these existing reform movements in the Muslim world rather than joining in calls to ‘save’ Muslim women and using their circumstances as a justification for invasion and war.” A very hearty amen to that!
Farzaneh Milani, a professor of literature at the University of Virginia talked about the importance of Freedom of Movement (broadly defined) for women’s full development and social integration, and about many ironic and apparently contradictory ways in which this bundle of freedoms is granted or withheld in contemporary Iran. She noted, inter alia, that 64% of the students admitted to Iranian universities are women; the number of novels published by women authors in Tehran has increased 13-fold over the past decade, to 370 new works last year; and now Iran has a woman as the ‘national poet’. She concluded: “Yes, there is repression and gender exclusion from the highest offices in the land. But a complex mixture of achievements and drawbacks mark women’s lives in Iran today. All of them need to be taken into account.”
… I do have my own set of theories as to why voices like these ones are not heard or included nearly enough in the policy discourse and policy making of this country. Part of it has to do with the deliberate, long-pursued suppression of the voices of all who “dare” to question the policies of this or that Israeli government. Part to do with the twinned campaign the most ideological pro-Israel networks here have pursued to stuff government departments, think tanks, and op-ed rosters with their own ideological soul-mates…. But in the case of the women among these scholars there is another factor at work, too: A systematic bias in many reaches of society that devalues the work and expertise of women, and the continued, steady upward rolling of the male professional elevator in all the relevant fields.
After all, if a TV booker calls in the evening, how many women have a wife at home to do the housework and look after the kids while they run off to appear on the Lehrer Newshour, or whatever? How many women have enough spare time left over from their daily grind to go out and schmooze with editorial boards or well-connected politicos? Or to contribute to new tech-driven fora like “Bloggingheads,” or even just the regular old blogosphere? How many older male professionals systematically seek out women or “minority” colleagues to network with and support, rather than continuing to support fellow-scholars who look just like them? How many ambitious younger men use their sharp elbows and immense self-confidence simply to elbow women scholars of all ages out of the way?
So huge kudos to WFPG and the Carnegie Corporation for having pulled together such a great little conference here this week. But will their efforts contribute to a real and lasting enrichment of the public policy discourse in this country on the issues of vital concern between the US and the Muslim world?
Let’s wait and see. But the expertise is now, quite assuredly, there to be tapped.

L. Rozen on Israelis in Kurdistan

Laura Rozen has a great new investigative piece at Mother Jones about the very lucrative business and security activities undertaken in post-2003 Kurdistan by former Israeli Mossad head “Danny” Yatom and his Israeli-US dual-national associate Shlomi Michaels.
HT: Wired’s “Danger Room”.
Rozen describes Michaels thus,

    He was a former commando with Israel’s elite internal counterterrorism force, the Yamam; he had since become one of the middlemen who work the seams between the worlds of security, intelligence, and international business, along with a few more colorful sidelines including a private investigations/security business in Beverly Hills.. [H]is business partner was former Mossad head Danny Yatom. Before arriving in Washington, Michaels, a dual Israel-US citizen, ran a string of businesses in Beverly Hills… After 9/11 he left Los Angeles, alighting first in New York (where he taught counterterrorism for a semester at Columbia University) and then in DC, where he would soon launch a lucrative venture to cash in on the Iraq War and its aftermath.

Here were some of his activities:

    He helped introduce information in Washington that the United Nations’ Iraq oil-for-food scheme was riddled with corruption—a matter that became a key GOP talking point for promoting the war. Later Michaels helped the Kurds find Washington lobbyists (Rogers’ BGR) who would make the case that Kurdistan was owed some $4 billion in oil-for-food back payments. In June 2004, during his last days in Iraq, US Iraq proconsul Paul Bremer sent three US military helicopters loaded with $1.4 billion in 100-dollar bills to Kurdistan, according to the Los Angeles Times. The money helped finance Kurdish infrastructure and development contracts that Michaels and his business partners then contracted with the Kurdish government to build and secure…
    One Michaels/Yatom joint venture, Kudo AG (short for Kurdish Development Organization), registered in Switzerland, won a major contract to serve as the Kurdish government’s general contractor for the $300 million project to rebuild Irbil’s Hawler International Airport. According to an associate familiar with Michaels’ Kurdish ventures, the deal was structured such that Kudo (a joint venture between Michaels and Yatom and their Kurdish associate representing one of Kurdistan’s two ruling parties) was to get paid 20 percent of every contract awarded in the airport project. Though it’s not clear how much Kudo was ultimately paid, that ratio would have made its contract worth roughly $60 million. (Michaels declined to comment for this story.)
    Michaels also won a smaller contract with the Kurdish Minister of Interior to provide counterterrorism training and equipment; in 2004, Michaels brought several dozen Israeli ex-security officials as well as bomb-sniffing dogs, secure communications equipment, and other military gear into a camp in northern Iraq.

As Rozen tells it, Michaels and Yatom had some plans that didn’t work out. One was a 2004 offer to sell some alleged “evidence” about Saddam’s former WMD programs to the CIA for $1 million. The CIA, very sensibly, didn’t buy. Also, the two men’s plan to provide security services to the Kurdish Regional Government had to be curtailed after Turkey raised complaints– and the Israeli security services suddenly (a little late in the day?) ‘discovered’ laws that forbade Israeli nationals from entering Iraq Iraq without explicit permission or from dealing in defense equipment without the requisite license…

Continue reading “L. Rozen on Israelis in Kurdistan”

Mr. Obama, tear down this war!

Mr. Obama, tear down this war! You have promised change and the “Global War on Terror” (GWOT) is the worst legacy of the Bush administration. You should denounce it.
Unfortunately, unlike other undeclared pseudo-wars like the Cold War, the war on poverty and the war on drugs, this “war” includes real violence on real people.
Using the “GWOT” as justification, the worst crimes in US history have been committed. These include war against nations which never threatened the US, imprisonment and torture of not only foreigners in large numbers but also US citizens (e.g. Jose Padilla) and unconstitutional domestic surveillance. If these crimes are to stop then their justification must be removed.
There ought to be no problem terminating the “GWOT.” A strategy based on military force has been thoroughly discredited, and it wasn’t even liked by the people who initiated it, but they continued to use it because it was useful against US citizens, to keep them frightened and unified in favor of the government which was busy committing aforesaid crimes.

Continue reading “Mr. Obama, tear down this war!”

Red Queen Perino declares ‘Victory’ in Iraq

Just like the Red Queen in Alice’s Adventures Through the Looking Glass, White House spokesperson Dana Perino is determined that words will mean what she wants them to mean!
Especially when it comes to declaring “victory” in Iraq.
Look at this exchange in today’s White House press briefing:

    Q: Can you remind us again why this agreement is not the timetable that the president fought so hard against? […]
    PERINO: This is a mutually agreed to agreement. [HC comment: As opposed to– ?] And that’s what one of the things that is different about an arbitrary date for withdrawal when you say you’re going to leave win or lose. We believe that the conditions are such now that we are able to celebrate the victory that we’ve had so far and establish…a strategic framework agreement.

HT to Ben of Think Progress. His post on the matter here even shows us that Perino was dressed for the part.

Logistical impasse for the US in Afghanistan?

Bernhardt of Moon of Alabama has a good short post up today on the huge logistics challenge involved in keeping the US/NATO forces in Afghanistan supplied.
He’s commenting on this fascinating report in today’s WaPo on the security problems the truck-based supply route through Pakistan has faced for many months now. The WaPo reporters write, “Before the Taliban raid and border closure last week, an average of 600 to 800 tractor-trailers moved through [the Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossing at] Torkham a day, according to Afghan customs officials.” That flow of traffic has frequently been reduced considerably, or choked off completely by anti-US or pro-Taliban forces acting inside Pakistan.
On Monday, the Pakistani army received orders to “shoot to kill” those attacking US convoys. Yesterday (Tuesday) the traffic flow resumed a little. But still Customs officials said they expected only around 200 trucks to pass through that day.
Bernhardt has a very handy link to a “Request for Info” issued by the US Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) which is,

    conducting a market survey on industry capabilities and potential sources for inter-theater surface transportation of military cargo to/from various destinations in Afghanistan utilizing two possible options. The first option is to move cargo between Northern Europe and various destinations in Afghanistan through Caucus’ and Central Asia. The second option is to move cargo between CONUS and Afghanistan through Asia and Central Asia. In addition to the options above, the Government is also looking for other possible innovative routing and intermodal solutions which may include air transportation.

Do they look a little desperate there? “Looking for other possible innovative routing and intermodal solutions…”?
B has also very helpfully produced a rough map of what the “European” and “Asian” options for new supply lines might look like. The Asian option notably goes mainly through China before getting to Afghanistan through one or more of the other Stans.
(Check out Stratfor’s handy map of the two new links China is making to the rail network the Soviets built, back in the day, in all the Stans they controlled. China has also recently, as I noted here, won a contract with the Afghan government to, inter alia, build the country’s first-ever national north-south rail line, that will connect western China’s rail network with that of Pakistan, and through Pakistan to the Arabian Sea.)
But China’s big new engineering projects in the region will come far too late to save the US/NATO troops trapped in Afghanistan at the end of extremely long and tortuous supply lines…
USTRANSCOM’s “Request for Info” seems based primarily on the US military’s desire not to be wholly dependent in Afghanistan on trans-Russian supply lines, and not to be dependent at all on the other, geographically very obvious route into Afghanistan, which would be to go in through Iran.
In Bernhardt’s post, he writes,

    A retreat from Iraq would relieve the U.S. from some costs. But to supply a soldier in Afghanistan might easily cost double or triple as much as supply for a soldier in Iraq. Has Obama thought about how he will finance that war?

I think his estimate of the relatively much higher cost of sustaining each soldier inside Afghanistan is quite correct. And this is a matter that the US Congress– holder of the war-making purse-strings, remember!– should take into full account, as well as the incoming President.
Meanwhile, as Don Bacon has documented so ably for us here, the political-strategic part of the war effort in Afghanistan has been going abysmally badly. It truly is time to look for an alternative to continued US dominance of the “stabilization” (or whatever) project there.
Time for the Security Council as a whole to consider a whole range of other, much less unilateralist, less “western”, and less heavily militarized approaches.

Specter, Tierney spearheading diplomatic engagement with Iran

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Rep. John Tierney (D-MA) are at the forefront of a bold new effort to pull US policy away from its belligerent stance towards Iran and to rally strong congressional support for President-elect Obama’s long-maintained preference for real diplomatic engagement with the Islamic Republic.
Yesterday, these two Congressional leaders and Sen. Thomas Carper (D-DE) all appeared at an event held on Capitol Hill to launch a new Experts’ Statement that spells out in broad terms how a new policy of diplomatic engagement could be pursued and that– equally importantly– dispells some of the key “myths” that, being widespread especially on Capitol Hill, have served until now to blunt congressional support for engagement with Iran.
These are the five steps the Experts’ Statement urges:

    1. Replace calls for regime change with a long-term strategy [that includes meaningful dialogue]
    2. Support human rights through effective, international means [as opposed to unilateral, US-only means that seem to aim at regime change]
    3. Allow Iran a place at the table – alongside other key states – in shaping the future of Iraq, Afghanistan and the region.
    4. Address the nuclear issue within the context of a broader U.S.-Iran opening [rather than by maintaining “peremptory preconditions on dialogue.”]
    5. Re-energize the Arab-Israeli peace process and act as an honest broker in that process [including, quite possibly, through “dealing, directly or indirectly, with Hamas and Hezbollah.”]

Among the 20 experts who issued the statement are veteran high-level diplomats Thomas Pickering and Jim Dobbins.*
At yesterday’s session, Dobbins appeared and talked very eloquently about the many helpful things the Iranian government did that enabled the early phases of the US war against the Taliban in 2001 to succeed. He knew– because he’d been completely involved in leading those efforts, including at the Bonn conference in December 2001.
Tierney and Specter also gave very effective and courageous presentations in support of the Experts’ Statement. Specter recalled that he has been a supporter of dialogue with Iran for a long time (“since long before Barack Obama became a U.S. Senator.”) Tierney stated outright that the policy of isolation and exclusion that the Bush administration has pursued toward Iran in recent years “has not worked,” and he quoted almost directly from the Experts’ Statement in several parts of his speech, expressing its sentiments as his own.
Carper was less impressive and courageous, doing much more to couch his words in terms that “all options must stay on the table”, etc etc. Still, he had agreed to host the gathering there in the Hart Senate Office Building, not far from his own office. And having it there did, of course, give the event and the Experts’ Statement additional standing among lawmakers.
This initiative has been extremely well timed. Though Obama has held fundamentally true to his insistence that, as President, he intends to undertake serious exploration of the possibilities for real diplomatic engagement with Iran, he will still require strong backing from Capitol Hill for this policy. And AIPAC, which has made the ratcheting up the level of threat, hysteria, and war-readiness against Iran the centerpiece of its advocacy for several years now, remains a very powerful player on Capitol Hill. Including, as we know, among the Democrats there…
So having Specter and Tierney so strongly on board the new “engage diplomatically with Iran” effort is extremely important. This is a movement that needs to continue to grow.

* Of course, it would be easier for this movement to grow if the “experts” whose names appeared on the statement were more gender-inclusive. Why only two women among the 20 people named as “validators” there? Why this ridiculous devaluing of the kind of contribution that a Nikki Keddie or a Farzaneh Milani– or a host of other distinguished women experts on Iran– could have brought to the project?

Australia’s thought-provoking Apology

Okay, I am merely nine months late in commenting on the breakthrough apology that Australian PM Kevin Rudd offered to the indigenous peoples of Australia and the Torres Strait Islands in the parliament in Canberra back on February 13. You can see video of Rudd delivering it here, and read the text here.
As a US citizen (and also, for my sins, a British citizen), reflecting on Rudd’s heroic– though of course not yet nearly “sufficient” act– makes me ask how long it will be until my government here in Washington issues some equivalent public apologies for past, very grave misdeeds.

    * For the many acts carried out against numerous Native American peoples– exactly analogous to deeds the Anglo-heritage Australians committed against the indigenous peoples of their lands;
    * For the barbaric acts carried out against African peoples ripped from their own countries, brought to our shores, and kept in a situation of enslavement that– unlike slavery systems known elsewhere in the world– was maintained intact throughout the generations;
    * For the unjustified wars of aggression our government has launched, both on this continent and far afield, right down to the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Well, I said, “past” misdeeds. Some of our country’s misdeeds– including the occupation of Iraq and its maintaining of a completely unfair agricultural subsidy program that has ripped the livelihoods away from hundreds of millions of poor-country farmers — continue to this day.
In the case of continuing misdeeds, it is a good question whether we should focus more on stopping the misdeed or seeking a public apology– or even, as is preferable, some form of concrete reparation– for it.
My own strong preference is to focus first of all on stopping the misdeed. Apologies and other forms of “reckoning” can wait till later. But if we wait to end the commission of the misdeed then further considerable harm will have been done in the meantime…

Continue reading “Australia’s thought-provoking Apology”