Harvard’s shame (and Chicago’s)

So it is indeed true. Harvard has indeed “removed its logo” from the footnoted version of the Mearsheimer/Walt study that is archived on a Keenedy School website, as HaAretz‘s Shmuel Rosner reported..
In addition,

    The university also appended a more strongly worded disclaimer to the study, stating that it reflects the views of its authors only. The former disclaimer said merely that the study “does not necessarily” reflect the university’s views.

This is totally shameful pandering on behalf of this money-grubbing institution of so-called “higher learning”. (H’mm, I wonder what lesson about academic independence and the value of evidence-based research students are supposed to take from this episode?)
Universities and other research institutions publish studies all the time on the basis that these studies “do not necessarily represent” the views of the institution. (Which leaves it an open question as to whether the study in question does do so, or not.) That is what a commitment to the freedom of enquiry is all about.
So Harvard (and Chicago) now seem to be going quite a bit further when they now, in what was presumably a carefully considered statement of disclaimer on the front page of the web-archived version, state that,

    The two authors of this Working Paper are solely responsible for the views expressed in it. As academic institutions, Harvard University and the University of Chicago do not take positions on the scholarship of individual faculty, and this article should not be interpreted or portrayed as reflecting the official position of either institution.

And then, the withholding of the Harvard logo is quite pathetic. Though really, since Harvard is indeed proceeding in this craven, pandery way, if I were Walt and Mearsheimer I would consider a “Harvard logo” to be a thing of very little value.
Interestingly, HaAretz also today carries a fairly nuanced evaluation of the M-W paper by Daniel Levy, a key Shimon Peres ally who was the lead Israeli drafter of the Geneva Accord.
Levy expresses a couple of criticisms of the M-W paper. (I agree with him completely that M&W should have mentioned the Lobby’s conflict with Bush I and Baker over loan guarantees, in 1991-92. Notable, because as I wrote in this book, (1) B&B “won” on the immediate issue of the loan guarantees; but then (2) they were majorly punished by the Lobby in the 1992 election; and Bush I’s defeat in that election stood thereafter for the Clintonites and for Bush II as an object lesson in why they shouldn’t even dream of confronting the Lobby… This, even though many solid analysts of US politics pointed out at the time that “it’s the economy, stupid!” was even more central to Bush’s electoral defeat. But the Lobby’s ideological enforcers managed to get their view of things very “forcefully” across to all the pols… )
But Levy concludes,

Continue reading “Harvard’s shame (and Chicago’s)”

Scandals engulf the Republican Party

The US ruling party is currently facing a “perfect storm” of scandals, the reach of which continues to expand.
There are at least three major scandals now exploding all over the party’s leadership. Sometimes it almost feels hard to tell them apart. (Oh, maybe that’s because they are indeed all linked, in multiple, very nefarious ways.)
The latest one to come to some sort of amazing fruition is the Jack Abramoff scandal. Abramoff, a powerful “lobbyist” who’s very well connected to the Republican leadership (and also, as Juan Cole has duly reminded us, to some of the sleaziest, most violent elements in the Israeli settler movement) yesterday pled guilty on three counts of fraud, tax evasion and conspiracy to bribe public officials. As a part of these “guilty pleas”, Abramoff had to promise to pay at least $25 million in restitution to clients whom he has bilked, and was told he’d get a prison sentence of around 9.5-11 years (instead of the 30-plus years he could, apparently, face if convicted after a contested case.)
Abramoff also, even more significantly, promised to tell prosecutors all he knew about possibly illegal actions taken by others– and these are widely predicted to include a number of influential members of Congress including the man who is still formally the #2 Republican in the House of Representatives (though he is currently ‘resting” from that position): Tom DeLay.
So far, only one member of Congress, a medium-important Ohio Republican called Robert Ney, has been referred to in Abramoff-related court papers. But Alice Fisher, the head of the Justice department’s ciriminal division yesterday told the media:

    “The corruption scheme with Mr. Abramoff is very extensive… We’re going to follow this wherever it goes.”
    Fisher declined to identify the officials under scrutiny. “We name people in indictments,” she said, adding: “We are moving very quickly.”

The second scandal brewing close to the surface of national politics is the indictment that a grand jury in the court system in Texas issued last September— separately– against Tom DeLay, on charges of conspiring with two political associates to violate state campaign finance law. That case proceeds.
And the third scandal still brewing is the continuing possibility of further indictments– including, quite possibly, one against Karl Rove– in the whole “Valerie Plame” leak episode, regarding which Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald is continuing his work. (In my judgment, Rove and DeLay are the joint lynchpins of the still-continuing Republican conspiracy against democracy and accountable government in America.)
All three of these scandals are expected to come to a head between now and August. Did I mention that this year is a year for key congressional elections? No wonder that President Bush’s advisors (who still include Rove) have told him he needs to cut and run from his disastrous and unpopular project in Iraq, oops sorry, I mean “undertake a wise and measured strategic redeployment in Iraq” if the Republican Party is to have any chance at all of hanging onto power in the elections this November.
… Usual caveat here: namely, this very bad news for the GOP would be very much better news for the US citizenry and the world if our country had anything like a normal opposition party ready and eager to take advantage of it. We don’t. Indeed, in the prosecutions of members of Congress and their staff-people that are expected to follow from Abramoff’s tip-offs, there is no indication at all that they won’t also include some officials from the Democratic Party.
This interesting article in today’s WaPo gives some helpful background about the whole phenomenon of the work of “lobbyists” in Washington — i.e., basically, buying and suborning the votes of our elected representatives. It notes,

    So far, the public has not identified corruption as solely a Republican problem. A Washington Post-ABC News poll in November asked Americans whether they thought Democrats or Republicans were better on ethical matters; 16 percent said Democrats, 12 percent said Republicans, and 71 percent said there was not much difference between the parties.

If I were asked that question, I think I’d say the Democrats were “better”– but only by the thinnest of all possible margins, and only very unevenly better, at all.

“The times that try men’s souls”

Sen. Robert Byrd is the eloquent elder statesman whose speeches in the run-up to the present war offered potent warnings as to the dangers and unpredictability of war.
Now, the Senator is once again at the forefront of the fight for the American conscience– or, if you like, the American soul. Yesterday, he had this to say about the recent revelations that the President has for several year’s now specifically allowed US security agencies to spy on the US public without even complying with legislation that requires them to get a warrant to do this from an existing, specially constituted court.
Byrd’s remarks were under the potent title, No President is above the Law. They included the following:

    We know that Vice President Dick Cheney has asked for exemptions for the CIA from the language contained in the McCain torture amendment banning cruel, inhumane, and degrading treatment. Thank God his pleas have been rejected by this Congress.
    Now comes the stomach-churning revelation through an executive order, that President Bush has circumvented both the Congress and the courts. He has usurped the Third Branch of government – the branch charged with protecting the civil liberties of our people – by directing the National Security Agency to intercept and eavesdrop on the phone conversations and e-mails of American citizens without a warrant, which is a clear violation of the Fourth Amendment. He has stiff-armed the People’s Branch of government. He has rationalized the use of domestic, civilian surveillance with a flimsy claim that he has such authority because we are at war. The executive order, which has been acknowledged by the President, is an end-run around the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which makes it unlawful for any official to monitor the communications of an individual on American soil without the approval of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court.
    What is the President thinking?

Continue reading ““The times that try men’s souls””

Iraq as Bush’s ‘strongest card’ (?)

So here’s how bad the political situation at home has become for the Bush administration at this point, less than a year into his second term: He even has to peddle the situation in Iraq as being the strongest achievement of his presidency to date…
Yes, the guy truly is in dire political straits.
Tonight, he went on national t.v. to give a major public address about Iraq for the fifth time since November 30. And Dick Cheney even left his bunker for long enough to go and visit the Baghdad Green Zone. The intensity of these guys’ present public focus on events in Iraq is completely unprecedented.
Remember, we don’t even know yet what kind of a government will emerge from Thursday’s elections.
(If the votes were gathered in a generally fair way, and fairly counted, then the new government is most likely to be very hostile to any lengthy presence of US troops in their country. What will the Bushies do then? Maybe we can get a hint of an answer from Palestine, where the US and now the EU have already said that they won’t support any elected body in which anti-imperialist, anti-US parties dominate.)
So the timing of the current Bush/Cheney attempt at a “victory lap” may well be dictated by the need to for them to strut their stuff before the potentially challenging results of the recent election come in. But it is also, I’m sure, dictated by their need to claim some kind of victory– any kind of a victory!– somewhere in the world, given the sudden new plummet in their political sway at home. They couldn’t get the Patriot Act renewed. They couldn’t (despite Cheney’s best urgings) get a strong pro-torture provision preserved in the legislation. They couldn’t stave off the prosecutors and judges– and in texas, too!– from going after Tom De Lay. They couldn’t ram Samuel Alito’s nomination to the Supreme Court through the Senate before Christmas, as they wanted. They haven’t been able to stop Patrick Fiztgerald’s investigation from getting very close indeed to Karl Rove ….
Failure, threat, and weakness, wherever they look.
Except– in Iraq! Where they have all those great pictures of Iraqis walking along showing off their ink-stained fingers!
(The Bushies ignore, of course, that the violence also escalated badly again there today.)
Well, if the January elections are anything to go by, then this time once again it’ll take the Iraqi Election Commission a long time to count the votes; then it’ll take even longer to get the elected parliament seated; then there’ll be many weeks of haggling over who gets to be President; and ditto, for Prime Minister… So we may not see any kind of government emerging from this election for another 2-3 months. Plenty of time for Amb. Khalialzad and Gen. Casey to continue all kinds of anti-democratic machinations, back up by the military, the Special Forces, and other means of violence… So it may be quite a time yet before we see any clearly presented, anti-US political movement emerging from the elections– even if there are many signs that this movement is waiting in the wings.
And in the meantime, the Prez will continue to try to strut his stuff as the hero of “democracy” and “liberation” in Iraq.
But in in the rarefied hot-house of intra-elite politics in Washington, it’s not even really about Iraq any more. (And it most likely never was.) It’s about power in Washington: who’s got it, and who’s losing it. George W. Bush has been losing it big time. In other circumstances, that would be the kind of circumstance that could prompt a president to launch some kind of a “wag the dog” military adventure. But not today. Been there, done that…

Bush “magic” evaporating

At the end of the day, nearly all politics in Washington comes down to budgets. And this year, Bush is running into unexpectedly big trouble on the one he’s proposing.
I’m on the road a bit these days. Yesterday I drove from Charlottesville to Washington DC, where I had a delightful dinner and sleepover with some old friends… A fast and furious dinner discussion there– mainly global affairs, but with a little Washington politics thrown in. Today I’m in Philadelphia, where I’m attending a two-day workshop at a Quaker study center.
When I drive long distances is the main time I get to listen to a lot of radio. Here in the US all radio is broadcast locally, but many stations air content provided by either National Public Radio or the BBC (through PRI). Okay, not “many” as a proportion of the whole, since the airwaves are generally dominated by either evangelical-Christian stations or bland music stations controlled by the rightwing company “Clear Channel Communications”. But “many” as in, if you’re driving anywhere near a large city, you can usually find an NPR-based station somewhere down near the bottom end of the FM dial.
Yesterday afternoon I was listening to Congressman John Murtha (Dem., Pennsylvania) who waxed eloquent and angry about the plight of the US military as a result of the Bushies’ decision to invade Iraq.

    The war in Iraq is not going as advertised. It is a flawed policy wrapped in illusion….Our military is suffering. The future of our country is at risk. We cannot continue on the present course. It is evident that continued military action in Iraq is not in the best interest of the United States of America, the Iraqi people or the Persian Gulf Region

Murtha– who had supported the original war-permitting resolution in october 2002– called for a rapid pullout of US troops. In addition, as a decorated ex-serviceman, he forcefully defended himself against the accusations from Cheney etc that now was “not the time” to criticize administration policy, and that criticism would be harmful to the US troops currently deployed in Iraq. He was particularly scathing about Cheney– who, as he reminded us, had enjoyed no fewer than five deferments of his draft obligation in the Vietnam era, and managed thereby completely to evade military service, at a time that Murtha was in combat in Vietnam.
Murtha and other Democrats are now unabashedly starting to come out and use some version of the “we were actively misled– by you guys” argument that I’ve been suggesting for a while now would be the best way to counter arguments from the Bushies that, okay, all those Dems who’re now against the war, well, most of ’em voted FOR it back in 2002.
Excellent!
(This is, of course, exactly why the whole current series of investigations into how exactly the intel/information about WMD was manipulated by the administration in the run-up to the war has such great current political significance. It is NOT merely a matter for the historical record.)
Anyway, back to the evaporation of Bush’s mojo…. No, I don’t think this process has gone anywhere near far enough yet. Obviously, it has a long, long way further to go before, for example, we can see such concrete advances as a withdrawal of all US troops of Iraq…. a re-structuring of US relations with the UN… the constructive re-ordering of US relations with the whole of the rest of the world… solid commitments to restoring a social safety net at home… etc., etc.
But still, it is definitely starting.
That NYT article I linked to at the top had this lead:

    President Bush suffered a series of setbacks and rebukes on Capitol Hill on Thursday and early today as the Republican leadership was unable to push through some of his most cherished policy goals for his second term.
    As the House and Senate struggled with spending and tax measures, two of Mr. Bush’s main objectives – oil-drilling in Alaska’s National Wildlife Refuge and an extension of the deep cuts to taxes on capital gains and dividends – were shelved by opposition from Democrats and some moderate Republicans.
    The defeats for the White House on the oil-drilling and tax-cut proposals came as Senate Democrats threatened to mount a filibuster against extension of the USA Patriot Act, which was enacted just after the Sept. 11 attacks and is a centerpiece of Mr. Bush’s antiterrorism policies. Democrats have been joined by several Republicans, some of them conservative, in contending that some parts of the act intrude too much on personal privacy in the name of national security.

Well, the erosion of Bushite power is way, way too late. But thank God it has started to happen.
As a footnote… When listening to both him and Cheney talking on the radio yesterday, they both sounded defensive– and very peevish. What a pair of babies.

Dems win in Virginia, New Jersey

Our fine Commonwealth of Virginia was one of two states in which the governorship was being contested in today’s elections… and the Democratic candidate won! Great news! Especially since his GOP opponent had specially brought Bush into the state yesterday to try to give his campaign a last-minute boost.
Heh-heh-heh!
The winner is Tim Kaine, who’s currently the Lieutenant-Governor, and before that was Mayor of Richmond. Kaine is probably a little more progressive than the present (also Dem) governor, Mark Warner, who campaigned hard for him. The outcome is good for a number of reasons. Better to have a Democratic governor than yet another of the stream of incompetent GOP governors who preceded Mark Warner. (There’s a one-term limit on the governorship here.) Also it showed that Bush has bad electoral karma here, while Mark Warner’s seems to be good…
In New Jersey, the only other state where there was a gubernatorial race, the Dems also won… And Schwarzenegger did pretty poorly with his special “Initiatives” over in Califormia.
Here in Virginia, our Lieutenant-Governor candidate, Leslie Byrne, also won. Maybe it’s time we had a woman governor here!

    Update Wed. 10:2 a.m.: from the latest WaPo listing it seems that Byrne got defeated 51-49% while the race for state Attorney-General is still too close to call. The Dem candidate for that one is our local State Senator here, Creigh deeds.

I made the eight-minute walk along to our local polling station this afternoon. What a pleasant experience. My friend Liz Kutchai was staffing the Dems’ table near the door. She gave me some advice about the one electoral issue I wasn’t sure about. (Whether one should support or oppose the proposal for an elected school board in the city.) As we stood there, our Sherriff– an African-American woman called Cornelia Johnson– came up looking very spiffy in her brown uniform. Cornelia was up for re-election today, but stood unopposed. Mitch Van Yahres, who has just stepped down after many years as our delegate in the Virginia House of Delegates, was also there.
The Virginia legislature sits on a strange schedule: something like four weeks one year and six weeks the next year — that is, holding the longer sessions the year they consider the budget. The sessions are held in January and February. I think the idea is that people can be both farmers and legislators… But most of them nowadays are lawyers.
This Saturday we’re having the annual conference of Virginians for Alternatives to the Death Penalty here in town. Mitch has always been a stalwart opponent of the death penalty– but in a definite minority on the issue, in Richmond.
It’s a funny old situation here in this state. The Republicans have a pretty strong lock on both houses of the state legislature, but now we’ll be having the second Democratic governor in a row. Party politics in this country really is a strange beast, which I’m still struggling to understand…

60 percent disapproval of Bush

Oh yes! Today, the WaPo reported that its latest poll had the US public disapproving of the President’s performance in office by 60 percent to 39 percent.
Plus, this:

    several pillars of Bush’s presidency have begun to crumble under the combined weight of events and White House mistakes. Bush’s approval ratings have been in decline for months, but on issues of personal trust, honesty and values, Bush has suffered some of his most notable declines. Moreover, Bush has always retained majority support on his handling of the U.S. campaign against terrorism — until now, when 51 percent have registered disapproval.
    The CIA leak case has apparently contributed to a withering decline in how Americans view Bush personally. The survey found that 40 percent now view him as honest and trustworthy — a 13 percentage point drop in the past 18 months. Nearly 6 in 10 — 58 percent — said they have doubts about Bush’s honesty, the first time in his presidency that more than half the country has questioned his personal integrity.

And on Iraq, this:

    Iraq remains a significant drag on Bush’s presidency, with dissatisfaction over the situation there continuing to grow and with suspicion rising over whether administration officials misled the country in the run-up to the invasion more than two years ago.
    Nearly two-thirds disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation there, while barely a third approve, a new low. Six in 10 now believe the United States was wrong to invade Iraq, a seven-point increase in just over two months, with almost half the country saying they strongly believe it was wrong.
    About 3 in 4 — 73 percent — say there have been an unacceptable level of casualties in Iraq. More than half — 52 percent — say the war with Iraq has not contributed to the long-term security of the United States.
    The same percentage — 52 percent — says the United States should keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is restored, and only about 1 in 5 — 18 percent — say the United States should withdraw its forces immediately. In the week after U.S. deaths in Iraq passed the 2,000 mark, a majority of those surveyed — 55 percent — said the United States is not making significant progress toward stabilizing the country.

… Yesterday, here in Charlottesville, we moved to our “winter schedule” for the weekly peace vigils. Once the country comes off summer time it gets dark that much earlier in the evening. So for visibility and safety we shift the vigil to 4:30 p.m. through 5:30 p.m. In summer it’s 5 through 6.
Whenever we make our twice-yearly shift, we catch the attention of a bunch of regular rush-hour drivers who haven’t seen us there for a while. Yesterday, it was the 4:30 through 5 p.m. drivers who hadn’t seen us since spring. They seemed delighted to see us there again. Many gave prolonged honks of support or let rip with little riffs on toot-too-too-toot-toot– toot-toot!
Our honk rate has definitely gone up a lot since April.
It was the end of a beautiful, balmy afternoon. In the nearby, pedestrianized downtown area many townspeople were just hanging out, enjoying the Indian summer sunshine. A crowd of black teens were slouching around outside Christian’s Pizza, trading jokes. The street-traders in Central Place– a large proportion of whom are Tibetan immigrants– chatted among themselves quietly as their bright piles of winter scarves and hats sat unsold. A couple of moms with small kids wandered out of the new Italian gelateria licking on large waffle-cones. A few dry yellow leaves drifted down from the trees.
Peace is so amazing, and most people who enjoy it don’t even realize that!
Personally, I’m really delighted that– in the midst of all the campaigns of fear- and hate-mongering that the pro-war folks have been continuing, 18 percent of Americans now, according to that waPo poll, support an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. Wow. Those people, it seems to me, see completely through all the many arguments produced by the “oh, we have to stay there to make things better” crowd and all the “Pottery Barn Rules” folks.
During the peace vigil, my friend Heather said, “Oh I can’t believe we might be here this time next year, as well.” Well yes, Heather, quite likely we will be. But I venture to suggest that our little vigil– and all the other things people in the peace movement have done over the past four years– has actually made a difference. It’s kind of good to feel that way… even if we still have a long way to go, an additional 82 percent of Americans to persuade…

So the US Dems have spines? (Maybe…)

This afternoon, the leader of the democrats in the US Senate, Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada abruptly activated something called “Rule 21” which forced the Senate to go into a closed session to discuss a Democratic demand that the Intelligence Committee complete a long-delayed investigation into the intel that underlay the invasion of Iraq.
The “unilateral” way in which Reid did this marked a sharp break from the kowtowing “collegiality” that has marked the Democratic senators’ relations with their GOP (Republican) counterparts until now. Senate Majority (i.e. Republican) Leader Bill Frist yelped that the Dems were “hijacking the Senate”.
Reid’s move was, however, quite legal. Senate employees cleared nearly all the non-Senators out of the chamber, dimmed the lights (why?), made sure electronic devices were turned off, and secured the entrances so the senators could have their “closed-door” deliberation. It lasted a couple of hours; and according to this AP report by the end of that time the Republicans had ” agreed … to a bipartisan review of the Senate Intelligence Committee’s investigation into prewar intelligence.”
At issue was the second phase of an investigation into the pre-war intel that the Intelligence Committeee started work on last year. The AP report said, “A six-member task force — three members from each party — was appointed to review the Intelligence Committee’s work and report to their respective leaders by Nov. 14.” But apparently the Dems were afraid the work was being delayed.
Just before he invoked Rule 21, Reid stated,

    The Libby indictment provides a window into what this is really all about, how this administration manufactured and manipulated intelligence in order to sell the war in Iraq and attempted to destroy those who dared to challenge its actions.

Fighting words! Some analysts– most notably Mark Schmitt at TPM Cafe— almost immediately identified Reid’s moment of feistiness as a “tipping point” or “power shift”. He wrote:

    there is often a moment when the effective majority switches, when the minority takes control of the agenda well before an election. It happened in 1994 when Gingrich forced the Crime Bill back to conference. It happened in 1996 when Kennedy forced the Senate to take up the minimum wage increase. After those events, the majority never quite had control of the agenda again.
    I think the same thing just happened today when Harry Reid took the Senate into closed session to force a discussion of the delayed Intelligence Committee report on misuse of intelligence.
    Bill Frist’s ability to run the institution now lies completely in ruins.

Not so fast there. It will take a lot more evidence than Reid’s single action of today to persuade me this is so. (And over at his own blog, Schmitt admits that, “I”ve never been a very good political prognosticator.”)
Yes, it would be great to think that the Democrats in the Senate could suddenly develop spines. But we’d need to see a lot more real protest, and a clear and principled anti-Bush movement developing in the country, before we could be confident of that. The party system in this country is so very different from that in most of the other countries I’m familiar with… Here, the social fragmentation and wide geographic dispersal of the citizenry means that parties don’t really have a forceful, continuing, and coherent political existence apart from being machines for winning elections. So the fact that the Senate Democratic leader has suddenly taken one semi-forceful action certainly doesn’t mean that tomorrow every Democrat in the country will take up the cause of “Show us where the lies were!” in a coordinated manner.
And then, of course, there’s the whole sad question of– even if we do find out all the details of who told which lie to whom, who fabricated which lie for whom, in the run-up to the war– well… So what?? What do the Democrats plan to do about it??? John Kerry’s little bleat last week about hoping to pull “20,000” US troops out of Iraq by Christmas really didn’t seem convincing or forceful, at all.
Well, maybe I’m too cynical. Maybe there is something new stirring in the Democratic Party…
Here in Virginia, and in a lot of other states, there will be some fairly interesting elections happening next Tuesday. Here we’re going to have elections for many state-level offices including the Governor, Lieutenant Governor (a separate race), Attorney General, and many state legislators. In Virginia, governors can only serve one four-year term each. Our present Governor, Mark Warner, is an android-looking political centrist who governed fairly effectively as a Democrat while having to deal with both houses of the state legislature here being strongly dominated by Republicans. Now, the present Lieut. Governor, Tim Kaine– also a Democrat– is running to replace him. The last polls I saw showed Kaine ahead of his GOP challenger by a hair.
Well, all politics is local; and in the case of some of these state-level races very local indeed. But I suppose that next week’s elections might give us one general impression of how much fight the Democrats have in them in various parts of the country… And of course, the other big issue at the national level right now is the latest Supreme Court nominee. But I’m too tired to write anything cogent here about that.

U.S. government historian ordered to suppress findings on Vietnam war start

The NYT has a very significant article today, in which reporter Scott Shane reveals that,

    The National Security Agency has kept secret since 2001 a finding by an agency historian that during the Tonkin Gulf episode, which helped precipitate the Vietnam War, N.S.A. officers deliberately distorted critical intelligence to cover up their mistakes, two people familiar with the historian’s work say.
    The historian’s conclusion is the first serious accusation that communications intercepted by the N.S.A., the secretive eavesdropping and code-breaking agency, were falsified so that they made it look as if North Vietnam had attacked American destroyers on Aug. 4, 1964, two days after a previous clash. President Lyndon B. Johnson cited the supposed attack to persuade Congress to authorize broad military action in Vietnam, but most historians have concluded in recent years that there was no second attack.
    The N.S.A. historian, Robert J. Hanyok, found a pattern of translation mistakes that went uncorrected, altered intercept times and selective citation of intelligence that persuaded him that midlevel agency officers had deliberately skewed the evidence.

    Mr. Hanyok concluded that they had done it not out of any political motive but to cover up earlier errors, and that top N.S.A. and defense officials and Johnson neither knew about nor condoned the deception.
    Mr. Hanyok’s findings were published nearly five years ago in a classified in-house journal, and starting in 2002 he and other government historians argued that it should be made public. But their effort was rebuffed by higher-level agency policymakers, who by the next year were fearful that it might prompt uncomfortable comparisons with the flawed intelligence used to justify the war in Iraq, according to an intelligence official familiar with some internal discussions of the matter.
    Matthew M. Aid, an independent historian who has discussed Mr. Hanyok’s Tonkin Gulf research with current and former N.S.A. and C.I.A. officials who have read it, said he had decided to speak publicly about the findings because he believed they should have been released long ago.
    “This material is relevant to debates we as Americans are having about the war in Iraq and intelligence reform,” said Mr. Aid… “To keep it classified simply because it might embarrass the agency is wrong.”

(Shane wrote that Aid’s description of Hanyok’s findings was confirmed by the intelligence official he had already referred to, ” who spoke on condition of anonymity.”)
As a citizen here in the US, I demand to see Robert Hanyok’s study. Both it and all the intelligence reports that it analyzed were completely funded by US taxpayers. And as Matthew Aid argues, in light of the controversy about the current administration’s deliberate misuse of so-called “intelligence information” in its (successful) attempt to build the case for starting a war against Iraq, we citizens and taxpayers need to be as clear as we can be about exactly how our government’s various “intelligence” organs work, and in particular how they can be misused and abused in such circumstances.
It seems, however, that what Hanyok has written about in his still-unpublished study is something significantly different from what the participants in the more recent “yellow cake”, “aluminimum tubes”, and “Muhammad Atta” disinformation conspiracies were doing…
Shane writes that his two sources (Aid and the anonymous intel official) both said that,

    Mr. Hanyok believed the initial misinterpretation of North Vietnamese intercepts was probably an honest mistake. But after months of detective work in N.S.A.’s archives, he concluded that midlevel agency officials discovered the error almost immediately but covered it up and doctored documents so that they appeared to provide evidence of an attack.

Actually, this account does not tell us anything about the motivation of those involved in the cover-up (as opposed to that of the people who made the original, apparently “honest”, mistake.) The main motivations of the cover-uppers could have been professional pride– as in, not wanting their particular analysis unit to have been caught making what looks like a fairly elementary mistake in translation– or they might well have been more heinous. Evidently, we need to see the whole timeline, and those original documents, in order to make a judgment on that.
Regardless of their motivations, the cover-uppers certainly helped catapult the US Congress into passing the Gulf of Tonkin resolution. (Wikipedia has a fairly good description of the whole episode here. However, their intro there still says of the false intel information that, “According to the Pentagon Papers and various researchers, the attacks were virtually fabricated by President Lyndon B. Johnson’s administration.” We need to see Hanyok’s work to get more clarity on whether it was a “fabrication” or the cover-up of an– originally perhaps honest– mistake.)
NYT reporter Shane writes that, “Many historians believe that even without the Tonkin Gulf episode, Johnson might have found a reason to escalate military action against North Vietnam.” But he quotes then-Defense Secretary Robert McNamara as telling him in an interview last week that:

    “I think it’s wrong to believe that Johnson wanted war… But we thought we had evidence that North Vietnam was escalating.”
    Mr. McNamara, 89, said he had never been told that the intelligence might have been altered to shore up the scant evidence of a North Vietnamese attack.
    “That really is surprising to me,” said Mr. McNamara, who Mr. Hanyok found had unknowingly used the altered intercepts in 1964 and 1968 in testimony before Congress. “I think they ought to make all the material public, period.”

So Bob McNamara comes across as, in some ways, the Colin Powell of his day.
Regarding the present-day “cover-up”– or perhaps more accurately, official suppression– of the truth behind the Gulf of Tonkin allegations, Shane quotes his anonymous intel official (who may well be Hanyok himself?) as saying that:

    N.S.A. historians began pushing for public release in 2002, after Mr. Hanyok included his Tonkin Gulf findings in a 400-page, in-house history of the agency and Vietnam called “Spartans in Darkness.” Though superiors initially expressed support for releasing it, the idea lost momentum as Iraq intelligence was being called into question, the official said.
    Mr. Aid said he had heard from other intelligence officials the same explanation for the delay in releasing the report, though neither he nor the intelligence official knew how high up in the agency the issue was discussed. A spokesman for Gen. Michael V. Hayden, who was the agency’s. director until last summer and is now the principal deputy director of national intelligence, referred questions to Mr. Weber, the N.S.A. spokesman, who said he had no further information.

Right. “No further information.”
So back in 1964, someone, or some “midlevel” ones, at the NSA engaged knowingly in a cover-up about the truth of an alleged North Vietnamese “escalation” in the Gulf of Tonkin, and 55,000 US servicemen and some 1.5 million Vietnamese died as a result. In 2002-2003, some highly placed individuals in the Bush administration engaged apparently knowingly in a cover-up about the “truth” of the Niger yellow-cake (and possibly other WMD- and terrorism-related) allegations about Saddam’s Iraq… So far, the casualty toll is 2,000 US service-members, some 30,000-80,000 Iraqis, and quite possibly the existence of the state of Iraq and the stability of the Gulf region for several decades to come…
Yes, you can see why some high-ups in today’s NSA wouldn’t necessarily want the truth about 1964 to come out now. But if we want to cling to the notion that our country is a democracy, the whole truth must be told– about both of these very troubled periods.

Can Bush speech buttress collapsing polls?

In his much-heralded (by him) speech to the National Endowment for Democracy yesterday, President Bush rolled out some of his old (and a little bit of new) pugnaciousness, along with a good few of his always noticeable smirks.
Will the speech help him deal with daily collapsing poll numbers?
Among the new rhetorical flourishes that Bush used were his validation of the term “Islamo-fascism” to describe the threat the US faces. Among the old ones were his calls to action against both Iran and Syria, and his attempt to link Islamic radicalism in people’s minds with both Hitlerite Nazism (as in, “Islamo-fascism”) and with the evils of communism…

    Also, as commenter John C. noted in the comments section of this recent JWN post, it is remarkable how many of the accusations that Bush made against Bin Laden could also be made against himself… I particularly liked these ones that John identified:

      These are people who:
      – “exploit local conflicts to build a culture of victimization in which someone else is always to blame and violence is always the solution”
      – “exploit modern technology to multiply their destructive power”
      – “target nations whose behavior they believe they can change through violence”
      – are “elitist, led by a self-appointed vanguard that presumes to speak for the . . . masses”
      – have as their chief visionary a man “who grew up in wealth and privilege” and encourages poor people to become killers, “though he never offers to go along for the ride”…

Anyway, back to the falling poll numbers. The CBS poll conducted October 3-5 found that 58% of all (US) adults polled disapproved “of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president”, while only 37% approved. That 58% is an all-time high for disapproval of his job performance, the numbers having risen continuously since a poll at the end of July– i.e., since before Hurrican Katrina.
Concerning Bush’s handling of Iraq, specifically the disapproval is even stronger: now at an all-time high of 64%, according to that same poll.
Asked whether, “Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out?”, 55% of respondents now say “Should have stayed out”– up from 31% back in December 2003.
Then this:

    “Should the United States troops stay in Iraq as long as it takes to make sure Iraq is a stable democracy, even if it takes a long time, or should U.S. troops leave Iraq as soon as possible, even if Iraq is not completely stable?”

Opting for “Leave asap” were 59% of all respondents, as opposed to 36% saying “stay as long as it takes.”
These poll numbers are really good news. They would be even better if we had an opposition party in the country capable of taking advantage of the voters’ judgments.
But what can Bush do about them? In other times, he might have sought to reverse the decline by ratcheting up tensions and even launching a little war someplace to distract the public’s attention. I really don’t think that’s an option for him today. And I very much doubt that even a whole series of “stirring” sppeches like yesterday’s could win him more than a couple of points, total, increase in his approval ratings. Meantime, Plame-gate is still threatening to burst into flames and his old friend and enforcer Tom Delay is somewhat on the ropes.
The months ahead could be very interesting ones. They would be even better if we had an opposition party in the country capable of taking advantage of the Bushies’ disarray…