Who’s in charge here?

More, from whichever of the Keystone Cops is making decisions regarding the management of the US occupation this week…
Or, are there any adults in the house?
This, just in from Reuters:

    The two leaders of the U.S. military unit at the center of the Iraqi prison scandal could still face sanctions even though they have recently returned to their work duties, an official said on Friday.
    The U.S. military suspended Capt. Donald Reese, commander of the 372nd Military Police Company, and his top noncommissioned officer, First Sgt. Brian Lipinski, in January after revelations of abuse from soldiers in the unit.
    A military spokesman confirmed for the first time on Friday that the two men had quietly regained their leadership positions three weeks ago just as pictures of abuses in Abu Ghraib began to circulate in worldwide media.
    “Captain Donald Reese and First Sgt. Brian Lipinski were suspended from their duties with the 372nd Military Police Company on January 18, 2003 and returned to their duties on April 30, 2003,” Major Scott Bleichwehl, a U.S. military spokesman, said in an e-mail.
    “The return of these individuals to their positions does not equate to them being fully exonerated. The final disposition of their reprimands has not yet been completed.”

Not even the United Nations can be as hamhanded as this lot.

News from Kansas

I’m here in Lawrence, Kansas at a conference on the situation in Iraq one year after the “victory”. It’s always good to get out into the heartland and listen to what’s on people’s minds in the US heartland, ways outside the Washington beltway. Three weeks ago, Bill and I were in Oxford, Ohio, where he was speaking at a similar gig at Miami University.
I only got into town in time for the tail end of the session before the one I was speaking on. It seemed really interesting. There was a retired military guy who now teaches at the US Army Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, whom I heard voicing some interesting thoughts. I’ll tell you more about ’em later.
There was also a totaly asinine, silver-coaing type of guy from the State Dept, called Robert Silverman, who said things like “well the abuse allegations ware not our finest hour but the general trend-line is upward”, etc etc… He certainly didn’t look as though his heart was in it, though, and he slunk away from the conference soon after.

Continue reading “News from Kansas”

Iran, the deal-maker?

Lots of bits of news about the Iranian Foreign Ministry being involved in various quiet diplomatic interventions to try to negotiate some kind of a de-escalation in at least the Shi-ite areas of Iraq. The Americans are still denying this fiormly. But the Brits seem to have been involved in it.
An Iranian diplomatic initiative was just what I predicted (okay, mainly to myself) when I read that sermon that Rafsanjani gave last Friday.
The latest wrinkle, as reported by AP from Teheran at 00:25 EDT, was this:

    Iran ended talks with the United States over how to restore order in Iraq after concluding the negotiations were “going nowhere,” Iran’s foreign minister said Wednesday in a rare acknowledgment of official talks between Tehran and Washington.
    But an Iranian diplomat reportedly traveled to Iraq to meet with members of the U.S.-appointed Governing Council and Iraqi clerics to discuss ways of ending the violence…

Let’s hope one or another of the diplomatic interventions now underway can set the situation on the way to a lasting de-escalation.
The present situation is disastrous for everyone concerned. Worst, by far, of course, for the Iraqis, who are losing hundreds of dead and having their country’s structure further degraded by the fighting. But also, terrible for Americans. We know that the number of military people killed is 87 or more so far this month. (Then, there are the mercenaries. How should we count them?)
In addition, Reuters reported on a presentation CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman gave earlier today, in which he said that the U.S. would have to approve a “massive” new spending bill of an estimated $70 billion within the next four months–and approve big new funding for next year, too, to meet its obligations in Iraq. This would be in addition to the $166.5 billion already approved over the past two years, to support war and “post-” war operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
CSIS hasn’t posted the transcript of that whole panel discussion on their website yet. But I imagine they will when they can. You can hear it in audio, already.

News from Cole

Great stuff, as always, over at Juan Cole’s blog today. Especially this snippet from a friend of his who managed to call a friend inside Najaf:

    The Americans are repeatedly sending in envoys to Sistani, who rejects Americans the permission to enter the city. They have now told Sistani that they are going to enter the city in four days after religious celebrations are over. Sistani has ongoing negotiations with Muqtada trying to make him leave the city…
    A lot of pilgrims from Iran are caught in this mess, sleeping in the streets, roaming streets trying to find shelter and something to eat. Pilgrimage in Najaf these days coming won

Avnery on the Yassin assassination

Veteran Israeli peace activist Uri Avnery, who heads “Gush Shalom” (‘the Peace Bloc’) commented on his government’s assassination of Hamas spiritual guide Sheikh Ahmed Yassin as follows:

    “This is worse than a crime, it is an act of stupidity! … This is the beginning of a new chapter of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It moves the conflict from the level of a solvable national conflict to the level of religious conflict, which by its very nature is insoluble.
    “The fate of the State of Israel is now in the hands of group of persons whose outlook is primitive and whose perceptions are retarded. They are incapable of understanding the mental, emotional and political dimensions of the conflict. This is a group of bankrupt political and military leaders who have failed in all their actions. They try to cover up their failures by a catastrophic escalation.
    “This act will not only endanger the personal security of every Israeli,
    both in the country and around the world, but also the existential security
    of the State of Israel. It has grievously hurt the chances of putting and end
    to the Israeli-Palestinian, Israeli-Arab and Israeli-Muslim conflicts.”
    Avnery mentioned that in the early 1980s the occupation authorities
    encouraged the founders of Hamas, hoping that they would create a
    counter-weight to Yasser Arafat and the PLO. Even after the start of the
    first intifada, the army and the security services gave preferential treatment
    of Hamas. Sheikh Yassin was arrested only a year after the outbreak.
    “There seems to be no limit to the stupidity of our political and military
    leaders. They endanger the future of the State of Israel.”

Here is the English-language section of Gush Shalom’s website.

RUSSIAN SITE’S VERSION OF COL. DOWDY REMOVAL:

RUSSIAN SITE’S VERSION OF COL. DOWDY REMOVAL: Back on March 25, I wrote about the pair of Russian websites that seem to be being maintained by Russia’s GRU military intelligence. Since then, I’ve intermittently been trying to assess these sites’ output.
Today, a piece on the English-language version of www.iraqwar.ru writes about yesterday morning’s surprise removal/replacement of the commander of the 1st Expeditionary Marine Squadron, Col. Joe Dowdy. No public explanation of this move has yet been provided by the US brass. The Russian site says that Col. Dowdy was, “deposed, ‘?for utmost hesitation and loss of the initiative during the storm of An-Nasiriya?’. This way the coalition command in Qatar found an excuse for their military faults by that town. The ‘guilt’ of the colonel was in his refusing to enter the town for almost 3 days and trying to suppress Iraqi resistance with artillery and aviation, trying to avoid losses.”
The Russians give no source for the portion they put in quotes there. Elsewhere, they frequently cite “intercepted communications” as their source.
Last week, reading a piece on one of the GRU sites, I got pretty excited that they seemed to have good knowledge of internal communications not just in the battlefield in Iraq, but also inside the Pentagon. Things they were writing then would appear in the Washington Post two or three days later. Then I thought, Nah, maybe it’s not the Pentagon they’re bugging. Maybe it’s just the internal chitchat among the WP reporters.
Back in the 1980s, I used to study the Russian military quite closely. Back then, of course, they were still the Soviets. Their military analysis then was often pretty sophisticated, and it still seems to be so. One of the things they often do on these new websites, this one and this one, is to assess the effectiveness that the US military’s tactics, as revealed in Iraq, would have on any operations inside northern Eurasian terrain. By no means a stupid thing to do!
And they also seem happy to let readers see– to some degree– how smart they are at whatever combination of actual listening and disinformation this is. Not stupid at all. And often, actually, quite interesting and well done.
Please send me your comments.

THE RUSSIANS ARE LISTENING?

THE RUSSIANS ARE LISTENING? I guess a lot of people around the world have become used to the idea that the US government, or their friends in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, listen in on just about everyone’s cellphone and other supposedly private conversations. But now, do the Russians have sophisticated listening capacity that can capture some internal US government communications as well?
There’s an interesting website called “War in Iraq” — don’t know how long it’s been up, but not long– that posts just-about-daily reports about the US war in Iraq, and gives some excerpts from what purport to be the texts of intra-US contacts as captured by Russia’s military intel, the GRU.
In an English-language post today, the site says:
A particular point of concern for the US command is the huge overuse of precision-guided munitions and cruise missiles. Already the supply of heavy cruise missiles like the “Tomahawk” has been reduced by a third and, at the current rate of use, in three weeks the US will be left only with the untouchable strategic supply of these missiles. A similar situation exists with other types of precision-guided munitions. “The rate of their use is incompatible with the obtained results. We are literally dropping gold into the mud!” said Gen. Richard Mayers [sic– HC] during a meeting in Pentagon yesterday morning. [reverse translation from Russian]
The US experts already call this war a “crisis”. “It was enough for the enemy to show a little resistance and some creative thinking as our technological superiority begun to quickly lose all its meaning. Our expenses are not justified by the obtained results. The enemy is using an order of magnitude cheaper weapons to reach the same goals for which we spend billions on technological whims of the defense industry!” said Gen. Stanley McCrystal during the same Pentagon meeting. [reverse translation from Russian]
Since the early morning today the coalition high command and the Joint Chiefs of Staff are in an online conference joined by the Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. This meeting immediately follows an earlier meeting last night at the White House. During the night meeting with President Bush emergency actions were outlined to resolve the standstill in Iraq. The existing course of actions is viewed as “ineffective and leading to a crisis”. The Secretary of State Collin Powell warned that, if the war in Iraq continues for more than a month, it might lead to unpredictable consequences in international politics.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Richard Mayers reported on the proposed actions and corrections to the plan of the operation in Iraq. George Bush demanded that the military breaks the standstill in Iraq and within a week achieves significant military progress. A particular attention, according to Bush, should be paid to finding and eliminating the top Iraqi political and military leadership. Bush believes that Saddam Hussein and his closest aides are the cornerstone of the Iraqi defense.
During today’s online meeting at the coalition headquarters Gen. Franks was criticized for inefficient command of his troops and for his inability to concentrate available forces on the main tasks.
According to [Russian military] intelligence Pentagon made a decision to significantly reinforce the coalition. During the next two weeks up to 50,000 troops and no less than 500 tanks will arrive to the combat area from the US military bases in Germany and Albania. By the end of April 120,000 more troops and up to 1,200 additional tanks will be sent to support the war against Iraq.
A decision was made to change the way aviation is used in this war. The use of precision-guided munitions will be scaled down and these weapons will be reserved for attacking only known, confirmed targets. There will be an increase in the use of conventional high-yield aviation bombs, volume-detonation bombs and incendiary munitions. The USAF command is ordered to deliver to airbases used against Iraq a two-week supply of aviation bombs of 1-tonn caliber and higher as well as volume-detonation and incendiary bombs. This means that Washington is resorting to the “scorched earth” tactics and carpet-bombing campaign.

I haven’t had the time to track the performance of this site very much at all. Are they offering what they purport to offer? Can anyone else give me a lead on this?
Aaah, it’s been a long time since I really got into Russian-watching. Then, it was called Soviet-watching. My Russian is pretty rusty, but I could make out that a recent posting on their Russian-language mother site, Voyna v’Irake (War in Iraq) was titled, “Analysis: the tactic of David and Goliath”.
I think everyone recognizes that information, and disinformation, are playing a crucial part in this war. As in all wars– but maybe more than in most other wars, this time around. The Russian military and the Pentagon both, evidently, have capabilities in this regard. But still, I think I’ll try to track this site a bit, see how realistic its analyses turn out to be.

CONTINUING TO ARTICULATE AN ALTERNATIVE

CONTINUING TO ARTICULATE AN ALTERNATIVE TO WAR: Today, I wrote my column on “comparative military occupations” for the Christian Science Monitor. Once again the writing went more quickly because I’d thought most of the text through beforehand. It’ll be in the paper Thursday.
Meanwhile my visa-ed passport arrived back from the Tanzanian Embassy. Next task: figure out getting the Mozambique one. Plus, where to stay in Maputo, Jo’burg, and Cape Town. I love planning trips!
Anyway, last night, Bill, three other U.Va. profs, and I were all on a panel discussion organized by the university’s African-American studies center. About the war. Slightly last-minute organizing, so not huge turnout. But definitely bigger than what the Charlottesville Daily Progress (Daily Regress?) reported.
The reporter there was correct that the panel had “most of the weight on the left side of the table.” But I learned afterwards that at least one other faculty member who would have anchored the other end of the table declined to appear with the rest of us.
By the way, the Prog also had a nice report on the High School walkout I wrote about here yesterday. Again, the number of participants was underestimated there.
Anyway, in the course of our panel discussion, I really reached some clarity on something I’d been worrying about since the war began. Yes, we know we failed to prevent the war being launched, but what can we in the antiwar movement plausibly say right now?
Well, for starters, I already knew that the argument that dissent at home “can harm our troops abroad” is a very dishonest one. It was not us who placed the troops in harm’s way. That significant feat was achieved the moment the President decided to launch the war.
But of course I care about the wellbeing of the US troops– as I do for the wellbeing of everyone caught up in that hellzone of war.
Now, one thing I did during the 1991 Gulf War, that later I came to think was a mistake, was to adopt the argument that, “since I know that war is brutalizing and ugly, then the best thing all round for minimizing the total amount of harm caused by the war is to hope for a rapid and decisive outcome.”
I heard that precise same argument being voiced last night by Jim Childress, a distinguished professor of medical ethics here at U.Va. And a version of it also by my spouse.
So that reminded me of the many concerns I have had about that argument ever since I used it in 1991.
Firstly, it sort of “assumes” that the US is going to win. So one ends up cheering on the effort for a rapid and decisive US victory. That felt strange enough for me to be doing when I did it back then– yes, I actually wrote columns to that effect, not necessarily with much cheering, but making that exact argument. But at least then, the US war effort had a much stronger basis in international law. The present one doesn’t, so cheering it on in any way involves supporting what I see as forces of global vigilanteism.
Secondly, it means that one gets emotionally into the danger of eliding the nasty reality of the war, and one gets caught up in planning for the after-war.
But I think it’s important to resist those temptations In particular, it’s important to continue being able to say, today, tomorrow, or any other time before the “end” of this war, that THERE IS STILL AN ALTERNATIVE TO WAR. Even today. Even any other day, whether the news from the battlefield is “good” or bad” from the US military viewpoint.
And what I feel quite comfortable saying is that on any one of these days, President Bush can still call for an immediate ceasefire-in-place, and call on the United Nations to help negotiate a resolution to the imbroglio in Iraq.
Why not? There is an always an alternative to violence, and I think it is up to those of us in the peace movement to be able to propose what that might be. And we are lucky, oh so lucky, that we still–even if only barely– have an international body like the United Nations that has the international legitimacy and global networks capable of taking over such negotiations.
I should imagine Kofi Annan and the leaders of the vast majority of the world’s countries would be delighted to have the U.N. play such a role. (Well, okay, maybe Kofi wouldn’t be “delighted”, since dealing with the massive pol-mil-humanitarian mess inside the country will be a horrendously difficult task. But I imagine that he would, at least, be ready to shoulder this task; and he’d presumably see that as a course far preferable to watching the violence and destruction just continue.)
Of course, I fully recognize that for Prez Bush to make such a turnround is, in the present circs, fairly unlikely. I realize that for the hawks in his administration, such a decision would represent the ultimate defeat of their world-defying strategy.
But just because it’s unlikely that Bush would heed our call that he stop fighting and turn the issue over to the UN for a negotiated settlement, does that mean we should not utter it, should not organize around it?
Of course not! It’s equally unlikely in my humble opinion that he’ll heed our calls to do the right thing by the health, education, and other social programs inside this country. But does that unlikeliness prevent us from organizing around our demands for the fulfillment of urgent social needs? No, of course it doesn’t…
So anyway, I was glad to have that bit of clarity come to me last night. Today, though I was writing something I consider to be important (for the CSM) about the after-war, I made sure to put in at least a couple of sentences about the fact that we still, even now, don’t need to just stay fatalistically on the war-wagon. And I articulated my still-valid, proposed alternative to continuing the war.

FINALLY GOT THE INDEX HERE

FINALLY GOT THE INDEX HERE FIXED?? I still can’t figure what was wrong with the coding Blogger and I had put into the archives for the past couple of weeks, but I went into the HTML and there were some really nasty extra characters in there… I cleaned it up by hand (being a good housewife, heh-heh-heh) and now I think the index WORKS.
Please, friends, tell me if you try it and it doesn’t.
Also, if anyone can figure how or why those extra characters got into the archives there, and how I could prevent that happening in the future– please let me know!!! Thanks!