Piece in CSM today on Bush and global warming

I have a non-column in the CSM today on climate-change. The title is “Bush’s good idea on global warming.” Don’t let that put anyone off reading it!
I start the piece by recalling that, when he was still governor of Texas, Bush signed into law a fairly good pro-green law that imposed fixed mandates on energy retailers to us a certain proportion of renewable energy, with penalties for those who did not do so. But then I note that since becoming president he’s been firmly opposed to any form of government-imposed mandates.
Then I talk about Kyoto some, and argue that it’s very important for the US to be fully in the post-Kyoto negotiations.
Here’s how I end:

    All nations need to work together to bring emission rates radically downward. It has to be a cooperative venture. America’s past and present emissions have (unintentionally) inflicted harm on others around the world, and now, foreign emissions are increasingly hurting America, too.
    Yes, we will need innovation – at many levels. Conventional definitions of economic growth will have to be reconsidered. But the degree of innovation we can achieve will be strongly affected by laws, regulations, and mandates that structure the incentives of all players in a pro-innovation, pro-green direction. Bush can still play a useful role on this – if only he would follow his own earlier example.

Climate change: Will the real George W. Bush please identify himself?

As President, George W. Bush has been strongly opposed to any treaty-based international mandates regarding greenhouse gas emissions. Condi Rice reiterated this point during the opening presentation she made at the Washington meeting on climate change today, where she said, ” Let me stress that this is not a one-size-fits-all effort. Every country will make its own decisions, reflecting its own needs and its own interests, its own sources of energy and its own domestic politics.”
Bush and other administration officials have also frequently stressed that technological innovation will provide the answer– with the strong implication that only an unregulated, mandate-free approach will allow that to happen.
But reel back the time-clock to 1999, and there was Gov. George W. Bush of Texas, enthusiastically signing into law important legislation on “Renewable Portfolio Standards”– legislation that mandated the state’s energy retailers to bring on-line a firmly established amount of renewable energy each year (with the responsibility to do this divided in a proportional way among them.)
If you read p.44 of this (PDF) recent study from Greenpeace International and the European Renewable Energy Council you can read more details about how the Texas RPS legislation worked. The report notes that it worked very well– establishing the regulatory/incentives context in which Texas rapidly went on to become a real national-level leader in the development and use of windpower:

    This year the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) believes as much as 2,000 MW of new wind power could be installed in Texas, potentially a full two-thirds of wind development in the United States.This would bring the total wind power in Texas to over 5,000 MW effectively reaching the state RPS goal set for 2015 only two years ago…
    The common view of the success of the wind industry in Texas is that the RPS jumpstarted the market, but now wind competes well on the open market with fossil fuels. Also, the industry development has continued in part because of the creation of a proactive planning process to drive investment in necessary power line upgrades and extensions.

Who knew? I mean, who knew that when he was governor, Bush had helped usher in such farsighted and effective goal-mandating legislation?
Because the point is, that the regulatory/incentive structure established by government is essential to provide the context in which technological innovation will flourish.
It seems Bush forgot that, somewhere on the way from Austin, Texas, to the White House?
It is also interesting that GWB has not been the only Republican governor who acted sensibly and with foresight on climate-related issues. There is also, of course, Arnold Schwarzenegger over there in California, trying to do a number of fairly farsighted things. (Though I would note, nothing yet as bold as would have been required of the US as a whole if it had been a party to the Kyoto Protocol.) But anyway, there’s Arnie, trying to do some two-thirds-good stuff over there in California– and according to this piece in Tuesday’s WaPo, President GWB’s officials have been actively working behind the scenes to try to block him!
Here’s what Juliet Eilperin wrote there:

    The Bush administration has conducted a concerted, behind-the-scenes lobbying campaign to try to generate opposition to California’s request to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks, according to documents obtained by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.
    California, along with 11 other states, is hoping to enact rules that would cut global warming pollution from new motor vehicles by nearly 30 percent by 2016. To do so, California needs a waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency, a request that has been pending for nearly two years. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has threatened to sue if EPA does not rule on the waiver by Oct. 22.
    A flurry of e-mails among Transportation Department (DOT) officials and between its staffers and the White House, released yesterday, highlights efforts that administration officials have made to stir up public opposition to the waiver…

So Bush’s position on this is notably not simply a “states’ rights” position…
I guess on Friday morning, he is due to address this group of governmental reps at the Washington meeting on climate change that Condi opened today. Frankly, given his appalling record on the climate issue as president, it boggles my mind that at this point he seems to be trying to position himself as in some sense a “pro-green” president.
It was the height of chutzpah, at the APEC meetings last month, when he and Australian PM John Howard– the two leaders of significant nations who had notably stayed outside the Kyoto process– were both trying to position themselves as enthusiastic front-runners in the green movement.
I don’t think anybody was really taken in. In today’s WaPo, Gordon Brown’s special rep for limate change, John Ashton, was quoted as saying that self-imposed targets are not enough. “We need to make commitments to each other, not just to ourselves.”
And still on the climate-change issue, here’s a little chart I made– using official US government data– of the different rates of CO2 emissions per-head in various parts of the world. You will see that the US’s level is more than twice as high as that of Europe and Japan– which have equally “advanced” but much more carbon-efficient economies. You can read that in conjunction with this post I put up on JWN on the human-equality aspects of the climate issue a couple of weeks ago.
And finally, we certainly need to pay attention to this public-opinion poll report from the BBC and Globescan/PIPA, which shows that strong majorities in all 21 of the countries where polling was done agree that human activity has been a significant cause of climate change, though the proportions judging that it is “Necessary to take major steps very soon” to deal with the problem is less robust in a number– but not all– of the countries.
Significantly, in the US, 59% of respondents agreed with this latter statement– as did 70% of Chinese respondents.

‘Super-typhoon’ approaching Shanghai

The very best of luck to our friends and readers in eastern China as they brace for the arrival of Typhoon Wipha.
Xinhua tells us that,

    East China, including the commercial hub of Shanghai, is preparing for what may be the most destructive typhoon in a decade, which is likely to make landfall in Zhejiang Province early on Wednesday.
    At 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday, Wipha’s center was about 297 kilometers southeast of Wenling, a coastal city in southwestern Zhejiang, and was accelerating northwestward at 25 km to 30 km per hour, according to the Zhejiang Provincial Meteorological Station…
    The “super typhoon” is packing gale-force winds of 198 kilometers per hour at its center, and is likely to maintain its momentum after making landfall, it said.
    It has churned up winds of up to 90 km per hour in the coast of Zhejiang. The province has received an average 31.8 mm of rain from 5:00 p.m. Monday to 2:00 p.m. Tuesday, with the maximum rainfall measuring 162 mm in some cities, the station said.

The WaPo tells us that Shanghai, a city of 17 million people, has evacuated 1.8 million of them.
The 4th Assessment Report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, issued earlier this year, warns us that it is “very likely” that because of global warming there will greater numbers of violent precipitation events worldwide as this century progresses.
So governments had better get used to organizing large-scale and effective mass evacuations of residents from large cities. Governments are the only bodies that can do this.
Here in the US, there is still low confidence that the government can do much better next time around than “Heckuva job Brownie” managed to do in September 2005…
Meantime, very best wishes to emergency planners in China and other East Asian countries as they deal with Wipha.