The real story in Pakistan/Afghanistan: Taliban rising

Asia Times’s Syed Saleem Shahzad has a must-read story on their website Thursday. He writes:

    While the world’s attention focused on the troubles of President General Pervez Musharraf following his declaration of a state of emergency in Pakistan at the weekend, the Taliban have launched a coup of their own in Afghanistan and the Pashtun areas of Pakistan.
    … The November 4 declaration of an emergency and the preparations before it was enforced distracted the military. As a result, several villages and towns in the Swat Valley, only a drive of four hours from Islamabad, have fallen to the Taliban without a single bullet being fired – fearful Pakistani security forces simply surrendered their weapons.
    The Taliban have secured similar successes in the northwestern Afghan province of Farah and the southwestern provinces of Uruzgan and Kandahar, where districts have fallen without much resistance.
    A new wave of attacks is expanding the Taliban’s grip in the southeastern provinces of Khost and Kunar. And on Tuesday, the Taliban are suspected to have been responsible for the massive suicide attack in northern Baghlan province in which scores of people died, including a number of parliamentarians, most notably Sayed Mustafa Kazimi, the Hazara Shi’ite leader.

I have no reason to doubt the veracity of Shahzad’s account, and have often admired his reporting from Pakistan (and Afghanistan) in the past.
By way of background, in mid-October Tom Koenigs, Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Afghanistan, told the Security Council that “the number of violent incidents was up approximately 30 per cent on a month-to-month basis, with a significant increase in civilian casualties — at least 1,200 had been killed since January.”
Not many institutions in the west keep anything like a close enough watch on political and security developments in Afghanistan. One intriguing report I found was this one, issued by Swisspeace on September 30. (That’s a PDF file. You can get around half of the textual material from it in this HTML version. The PDF version has a map that illustrates handily the extent to which Afghanistan-related violence bleeds across the country’s borders– into Pakistan, and into countries to the north.)
The Swisspeace report recalls that the large “peace jirga” held with a total of 850 Afghan and Pakistani participants in mid-August called for the establishment of a smaller peace delegation that would hold a dialogue with the Taliban:

    While the Taliban initially responded positively, a Taliban spokesman later made talks conditional upon a withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan.
    The idea of seeking a negotiated settlement with the Taliban appears to have gained ground in Afghanistan and now even seems to be backed by the US, which could be explained by a possible military attack of the US in Iran. If the weakened President Karzai intends to win the presidential elections in 2009 he might indeed require Pashtun and Taliban backing to outweigh the growing opposition from former factional leaders of the Northern Alliance…

There is more analysis there, too, about the close linkage between the Afghan/Pakistan situation and the US-Iran situation…
(Talk about an “arc of instability”! And which outside power do we see caught right up in the middle of it???)
Regarding the possibility of the US “backing” the idea of intra-Afghan negotiations that include the Taliban, my first reaction is to say (1) that I think that trying to include one’s opponents in serious peacemaking efforts is always a good idea– q.v., my latest Nation article on Hamas and Hizbullah; but (2) if the administration is indeed considering such a switch, it should at the very least talk about it openly with the US citizenry so we can all understand the reasoning, rather than going about it slyly and as part of a still quite unjustifiable rush into a war with Iran.
I note that the Swisspeace report also stressed that,

    the Karzai administration continuously stresses its good relations with Iran. Iranian President Ahmadinejad visited Kabul for the first time in the middle of August. At the end of his visit, the two governments signed various agreements to strengthen mutual cooperation…

Note on the lawyers’ protest in Pakistan.
Much of the political drama currently being played out in Pakistan has to do with the role of lawyers in society and governance. This obviously closely linked to the issue of “the rule of law”, though it is not exactly the same as it. Musharraf’s sacking of four Supreme Court justices last Saturday has many echoes of the campaign Egypt’s Mubarak has been waging against the lawyers in his country, and I can’t help thinking through some of the parallels, and some of the apparent differences, in the two situations…
One thing that struck me, looking at photos both of the street protests mounted by some lawyers and of protesting lawyers being hauled away in trucks by the security forces, was the strong contrast in both dress styles and facial-hair styles between the two groups. The lawyers were almost to a man (no women in sight there) dressed in dark suits, white shirts, and dark ties, with cleanshaven faces. The security forces were wearing uniforms incorporating many more “traditionally Pakistani” sartorial motifs; and many had full, long beards…
In a rambly and extremely ethnocentric reflection on the pics of the protesting lawyers, the WaPo’s Philip Kennicott wrote this:

    It would be comforting to dismiss the image this way: If lawyers are running the revolution, how bad can it get?
    But bad news is not kept at bay so easily. To that effort to dismiss the image, the image answers back: If lawyers are this angry, then the trouble is serious.
    And indeed, the trouble is very serious. The United States has backed a dictator, while proclaiming democracy our loftiest goal. ..

The story in Pakistan/Afghanistan– which is increasingly only a single intermingled story– is actually far more serious than Kennicott or many people in the US media seem to realize. (See main story above.)
For my part, I’d note that many of the suits I saw in the lawyers’ pics looked far less well tailored than the “Brooks brothers” model Kennicott wrote about. Many of the lawyers looked like guys who’d had to save up a long time or even borrow money to buy the one decent suit required for their work in the courts… Buying into an occidentocentric version of “modernity” that may be increasingly irrelevant in their country as a whole.
Ah, and talking of the “west”, here’s a recent little report from the BBC that gives some indication of the strains that the US-led NATO “mission” in Afghanistan is causing to that august former Cold War alliance.
Amazing feat of geographic legerdemain, if you come to think of it, to be able to re-classify Afghanistan as somehow falling under the rubric of the “North Atlantic”…

How invading Iraq harmed Afghan stabilization

David Rohde and David Sanger have an excellent piece of reporting in today’s NYT, in which they go in some detail into exactly how, from mid-2002 on the Bushites’ decision to invade Iraq distracted resources from the much-needed effort to stabilize Afghanistan.
The NYT also has a pretty good 8-slide graphic display that tracks the degree to which what are described as “terrorist incidents” have risen in Afghanistan through every year since 2002.
The Rohde/Sanger article is titled “How a ‘good war’ in Afghanistan went bad.” Imho, no war is a “good” war. But I’ll let that go for now. (Though it does affect they way one looks at the whole question of “stabilization” in Afghanistan.)
I don’t have time to write anything lengthy here right now, about Afghanistan.
I’ll just note that Rohde and Sanger interviewed a lot of former and current Bush-era US officials connected with the Afghanistan project (though alas, no Afghans), and came up with a fairly damning indictment– from their own words:

    Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice defended the administration’s policy, saying, “I don’t buy the argument that Afghanistan was starved of resources.” Yet she said: “I don’t think the U.S. government had what it needed for reconstructing a country. We did it ad hoc in the Balkans, and then in Afghanistan, and then in Iraq.”
    In interviews, three former American ambassadors to Afghanistan were more critical of Washington’s record.
    “I said from the get-go that we didn’t have enough money and we didn’t have enough soldiers,” said Robert P. Finn, who was the ambassador in 2002 and 2003. “I’m saying the same thing six years later.”
    Zalmay Khalilzad, who was the next ambassador and is now the United Nations ambassador, said, “I do think that state-building and nation-building, we came to that reluctantly,” adding that “I think more could have been done earlier on these issues.”
    And Ronald E. Neumann, who replaced Mr. Khalilzad in Kabul, said, “The idea that we could just hunt terrorists and we didn’t have to do nation- building, and we could just leave it alone, that was a large mistake.”

Alas, no more time to write here now. Bottom line on the article: the situation– both regarding ongoing mayhem in Afghanistan and regarding past ineptitude in the Bush administration– is just as bad as I thought it was.

Bush vs. Karzai

Sometimes a simple pairing of quotes speaks volumes. Case in point – Presidential comments about Iran by Afghanistan’s Hamid Karzai and America’s George Bush.
Yesterday, Karazai appeared on CNN’s Late Edition. Karzai bluntly conceded that “the security situation in Afghanistan over the past two years has definitely deteriorated.” Karzai also affirmed as “exactly true” US General David Rodriguez’ assessment there has been a 50-60% increase in foreign fighters comings into Afghanistan from Pakistan over the past year.
By contrast, Karzai contradicted recent US (and media) contentions that Iran has likewise been a growing source of trouble in Afghanistan:

BLITZER: “The U.S. ambassador in Afghanistan, William Wood, suggested in June that Iran is playing a significant role in the security situation in Afghanistan as well. “There is no question,” he said, that weaponry of Iranian types has been entering Afghanistan for some time in amounts that make it hard to imagine that the Iranian government is not aware that this is happening.” Is Iran directly involved in the security situation — the deteriorating
security situation in Afghanistan?
KARZAI: We have had reports of the kind you just mentioned. We are looking into these reports. Iran has been a supporter of Afghanistan, in the peace process that we have and the fight against terror, and the fight against narcotics in Afghanistan. Iran has been a participant in the — both processes. They then have contributed steadily to Afghanistan. We have had very, very good, very, very close relations, thanks in part also to an understanding of the United States in this regard, and an environment of understanding between the two, the Iranian government and the United States government, in Afghanistan. We will continue to have good relations with Iran. We will continue to resolve issues, if there are any, to arise.
BLITZER: Well, is Iran a problem or a solution as far as you are concerned? Are they helping you or hurting?
KARZAI: Well, so far Iran has been a helper and a solution.”

Nothing new in that, really, as Karzai (and former key Bush Administration officials like Flynt Leverett) have long been more positive about Iran’s disposition towards Afghanistan since 9/11. Yet Karzai’s reiteration of a positive view of Iran flatly presents a problem for the Bush Administration as it rolls out the Iran-on-the-march bogey to justify massive new arms sales to the Saudis.
Consider then Bush’s intense response today to a question about Karzai’s comments:

Q “President Karzai said yesterday that he believed Iran was playing a helpful role in Afghanistan. Was he able to convince you in your meetings that that was the case, or do you still have concerns about Iran’s role?…
PRESIDENT BUSH: It’s up to Iran to prove to the world that they’re a stabilizing force as opposed to a destabilizing force. After all, this is a government that has proclaimed its desire to build a nuclear weapon. This is a government that is in defiance of international accord, a government that seems to be willing to thumb its nose at the international community and, at the same time, a government that denies its people a rightful place in the world and denies its people the ability to realize their full potential.
So I believe that it’s in the interests of all of us that we have an Iran that tries to stabilize, not destabilize; an Iran that gives up its weapons ambitions. And therefore, we’re working to that end. The President knows best about what’s taking place in his country, and of course, I’m willing to listen. But from my perspective, the burden of proof is on the Iranian government to show us that they’re a positive force.”

In other words, for the Bush Administration, the Iranians must prove a negative, that they’re not up to “no good” in Afghanistan – never mind what an otherwise close American ally like Karzai has to say on the matter.
While he was at it, Bush threw in a bone for the “regime change” crowd:

“And I must tell you that this current leadership… is a big disappointment to the people of Iran. The people of Iran could be doing a lot better than they are today. “

Another clarion call from the black kettle to the pot…. Such rhetorical bombast helped Iran’s President Ahmadinejad get elected in the first place. But no matter.
Not seriously interested in inconvenient evidence to the contrary, President Bush retreats to the all-too-familiar neocon script on Iran:

“But because of the actions of this government, this country is isolated. And we will continue to work to isolate it, because they’re not a force for good, as far as we can see. They’re a destabilizing influence wherever they are.”

Preach it.

Legislators in Afghanistan and Iraq now edging off the US reservation

Afghanistan’s “Senate”– that is, the Meshrano Jirga upper house in the country’s post-2001 bicameral system– yesterday backed proposals that call for a cessation of military operations against against the Taliban, and invite the Taliban to take that opportunity to enter peace talks.
The Meshrano Jirga also called for a clear timetable for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan.
These proposals came from a peace commission that the MJ had previously established.
The MJ consists of “an unspecified number of local dignitaries and experts appointed by provincial councils, district councils, and the president.” It does not, apparently, have as many powers under the Afghanistan’s January 2004 Constitution as the bigger, elected lower house. The NYT’s reporters say that the lower house is unlikely to back the MJ’s resolution.
However, the US-led project to build a pliant but also locally credible political system in Afghanistan now seems to be in about as much trouble as the parallel effort in Iraq. In Baghdad, also on Tuesday, 144 lawmakers– that is, more than half of the members of the parliament elected in December 2005– signed onto a legislative petition calling on the United States to set a timetable for withdrawal.
Writing on Alternet, Raed Jarrar and Joshua Holland say,

    It’s a hugely significant development. Lawmakers demanding an end to the occupation now have the upper hand in the Iraqi legislature for the first time; previous attempts at a similar resolution fell just short of the 138 votes needed to pass

Jarrar and Holland note that despite its groundbreaking nature, the news of this legislative petition did not make it into the US MSM. (I tip my hat to Juan Cole for the link there.) The rest of their post there on Alternet is also certainly worth reading.
But I am also intrigued by the Meshrano Jirga’s vote in Kabul. Here in the US, the term “Taliban” is freighted with all kinds of dread, misgiving, and plain outright hatred– though in its original essence it only means “students.” During their years of rule in Afghanistan, the Taliban did do many terrible things to enforce their vision of what puritanical Islamic rule over the country should look like; and the female half of the country suffered particularly badly under their rule.
On the other hand, the Taliban did bring nearly completely to an end both the warlordism that had plagued the country for many years prior to their establishment of their government, and the industrial-scale poppy-growing with which the warlords had financed many of their military operations. During the violence-wracked years of the horrendous contests among the warlords, all Afghans, of both genders, suffered hugely; and millions fled the country to escape that violence and instability.
When the US invaded the country in November 2001, they did so in coalition with many of those same warlords, who today form a potent political force in the highest levels of the “Constitutional” government. If members of the present upper house are now proposing talks with the Taliban, to me that is a measure of the deep dissatisfaction many Afghans must have today with what the US-warlord coalition has delivered to their country. Certainly, the tendency of the US military to go careening round Afghanistan blowing up large numbers of people with little success in discriminating between combatants and noncombatants among those they target has alienated considerable numbers of Afghans from the US military. (Even the US-installed President Hamid Karzai has been obliged to voice public complaints.) It has also strengthened the Taliban’s support in the country.
I believe that we in the international community (and in the US, in particular) need to be much more open than we have been so far to the idea of an intra-Afghan reconciliation process that is broadly inclusive of the Taliban. (Anyway, as in Iraq, the internal reconciliation process in Afghanistan is really none of our darn’ business.) Yes, many of us have continuing concerns about the status and plight of Afghanistan’s women if the Taliban are able to regain too much influence in the country. However, I’d note the following:

    (1) The improvements that the post-Taliban era has brought to in women’s status has not been nearly as deep or as widely distributed as some people imagine or claim. Most of the country remains extremely conservative/restrictive on women’s issues. And
    (2) There certainly are other models around the world of politically successful Islamist movements that have actively pursued affirming policies towards female inclusion in all aspects of the public sphere including in education, the workplace, religious life, and even politics. See, for example, my reporting about the Hamas women, here and here. It would actually be great if we could see some signs that the Afghan Talibs– who grew up in a society that had far less social and economic development than the Palestinians– could take a few lessons from their Palestinian co-believers’ success in promoting and supporting the advancement of women’s skills, even within a strictly Islamist social and political context…

Anyway, I guess the main point of this post is to note that as of now, even the US-installed satrapies in Afghanistan and Iraq seem to be chafing under the yoke of the Bushists’ continuing ineptitude and their continuing reliance on blind military force long after it has become evident to everyone else– including a majority of folks here in the US homeland– that a blind reliance on brute force and ignorance really can’t bring good things to anybody in the world.

When all else fails, blame Iran (Part II)

Matters must be really deteriorating in Afghanistan. Why else would the Pentagon brass now be darkly suggesting that Iranian arms have been “captured,” supposedly on their way to the Taliban? It sounds suspiciously like the tired old formula; when matters go really bad somewhere in the Middle East, change the subject and blame Iran.
Michael R. Gordon today is competing yet again to be chief salesman for such ominous news. Media bloggers have taken to deeming him the resident “ghost of Judith Miller” at the New York Times, the journalist most willing to “take out Cheney’s trash.”
Lately, Gordon has been quite active in reviving support for getting tougher on Iran.
Last week, I commented here on the Pentagon’s odd claim that Iran was now not only supporting Iraqi Shia insurgents, but Sunni fighters as well. On February 10th, it was Michael R. Gordon who started the latest round of Iran-as-the-source-of-trouble-in-Iraq” with a front-page “scoop” that breathlessly cited un-named US sources contending that Iran was providing deadly munitions that were killing Americans. Gordon’s follow-up report generously allowed his sources to defend their claims amid the “controversy,” which even a NYTimes editorial criticized. (Amazingly, that editorial neglected to mention that it was their own reporter – Gordon – who catalyzed the controversy).
Like Judy Miller, Gordon has long specialized in providing red meat for neoconservative circles.
Last November, it was Michael R. Gordon reporting that “Iran-backed” Hizbullah was training Iraqi Shia fighters. And throughout the fall, Gordon filed multiple “reports” citing “experts” and “analysts” cautioning against quick withdrawal from Iraq, then condemning the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group (particularly the idea to talk to Iraq’s neighbors), and then advocating a “surge” of more troops into Iraq.
Back in 2002, it was Michael R. Gordon who wrote regularly with Judith Miller about Iraqi WMD capabilities, most infamously about the aluminum tubes presumed for Iraq’s nuclear program. The obvious intent of such articles was to drum up support for invading Iraq sooner rather than later.
The New York Times flagellated itself last year for such bad reporting, and specifically cited the Miller-Gordon “tubes” story as one of the worst examples. Yet Michael R. Gordon remains the Times’ lead “military” correspondent.
In a contentious interview last year with Amy Goodman, Gordon claimed that he was merely a recorder of the best intelligence and analysis available (pre-Iraq invasion) and that later “dissenters” had not contacted him.
That’s a curious defense. Shouldn’t the reporters be the ones casting about for different views?
Gordon may have thought himself funny when he told Goodman: “I’m actually not Judy Miller.” !
Really?
Today, the NYTimes designates none other than Michael R. Gordon to tell us that Iran is supporting the Taliban (sic) in Afghanistan. That’s right, Iran is now accused of sending arms to the Taliban, Iran’s mortal arch-enemy.

Continue reading “When all else fails, blame Iran (Part II)”

Afghanistan: US big media go AWOL

The news pages of the US MSM have gone completely AWOL on coverage of the rapidly unravelling strategic situation in Afghanistan. (A situation whose strategic importance I started to discuss here, on Friday.)
Today’s NYT magazine did carry an excellent piece by Elizabeth Rubin about the resurgence of the Taliban in southern Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan. It contained a lot of good material that she had gathered during a reporting trip back in summer, and definitely has a lot of helpful detail about the ambiguous (at best) policy toward the Taliban pursued by Pakistan’s infamous ISI intel service. So yes, it does provide some really useful background to the “news” events that have been occurring in Afghanistan over the past week…
But where is the coverage in the big US media of these momentous news events?
Almost nowhere, it seems… Most likely, because there are very few US service people left in Afghanistan any more. They have all been sucked up into the big “flood the zone” deployment in Iraq. And meanwhile, the Canadians, Brits, and other non-US members of NATO have been left holding the bag in Afghanistan.
Which probably also explains why the MSM in those countries has been covering the Afghan story much more than the US MSM.
Following up on the outspoken comments made by Chief of the British Defense Staff Gen. Sir Richard Dannatt ten days ago, his predecessor Field Marshal Sir Peter Inge reportedly told a meeting of European experts last Tuesday that the British forces risk defeat in Afghanistan.
Here is how Mark Townsend and Peter Beaumont described Inge’s remarks in a piece in today’s Observer:

    ‘I don’t believe we have a clear strategy in either Afghanistan or Iraq. I sense we’ve lost the ability to think strategically. Deep down inside me, I worry that the British army could risk operational failure if we’re not careful in Afghanistan. We need to recognise the test that I think they could face there,’ he told the debate held by Open Europe, an independent think tank campaigning for EU reform.
    Inge added that Whitehall had surrendered its ability to think strategically and that despite the immense pressures on the army, defence received neither the research nor funding it required.
    ‘I sense that Whitehall has lost the knack of putting together inter-departmental thinking about strategy. It talks about how we’re going to do in Afghanistan, it doesn’t really talk about strategy.’

Well, if Whitehall has stopped thinking strategically about how to plan and balance the missions in Afghanistan and Iraq, you can be almost certain that Washington DC hasn’t been doing any better at the task.
What I still don’t understand, though, is why people in the big US media are so asleep on this story?

Rumsfeld, Afghanistan, militarism

So there is Donald Rumsfeld, nearly six years into the Bush administration, and he has still managed to evade all the attempts to even start to hold him accountable for the violence he has played a big role in unleashing around the world during his tenure…
And here is Donald Rumsfeld, on the op-ed page of the WaPo today, telling us that in Afghanistan, over the five years since the US-led invasion, “the trajectory is a hopeful and promising one.”
I could spend some time refuting some of the rosy claims he makes about Afghanistan in this article. His claim, for example, that “Almost 600 schools have been built, and now more than 5 million children attend school, a 500 percent increase from 2001.” But how about this October 2 report from the UN’s IRIN news service that tells us that:

    Currently, due to fear of attacks, the doors of some 330 mixed schools have been closed in Kandahar, Zabul and Helmand provinces alone, according to Saifal Maluk, head of education in Helmand province.
    And it’s not just the south where primary education is suffering. “More than 200,000 students are shut out of schools across the country because of school closures due to fear of attacks,” Deputy Education Minister Mohammad Sadiq Fatman told IRIN from Kabul.

… Well, I could take on several of Rumsfeld’s claims in a similar way. But what really riveted me about his article was some of the language he used up near the top of it.
Especially the way he described the US-led invasion of Afghanistan, here: “from halfway around the world — with but a few weeks’ notice — coalition forces were charged with securing a landlocked, mountainous country…”
“Charged”. That makes it sound like they had some kind of official mandate for the invasion, doesn’t it? But in fact, the national armed forces that participated in the “coalition” had mandates only from their own governments. The UN Security Council did not come onto the scene with a resolution that explicitly authorized any outside military intervention in Afghanistan until December 20, 2001. That was Resolution 1386, that authorized the establishment of an international force to “assist” the “Afghan Interim Authority” that had by then been installed in Kabul by the US forces…
“Securing.” Now that is an interesting use of the word. To “secure” something can perhaps in military terms mean to “grab hold of it”– which was more or less what the US-led forces did to Afghanistan in October 2001. But most people would probably think that “securing” would also involve making a place secure. And that, the US-led invasion of the country has clearly failed to do.
Here is Bronwen Roberts of AFP, reporting yesterday:

    Widely agreed to have learnt more sophisticated tactics that reflect the methods of international terrorists, the fundamentalists are leading a revived insurgency.
    Nearly 100 foreign soldiers have been killed this year in their attacks on the 40,000 foreign soldiers in Afghanistan, and around 170 civilians have died in more than 90 suicide attacks blamed on Taliban…
    Meanwhile opium production in Afghanistan, the world’s biggest producer, jumped by nearly 50 percent this year on the previous year.
    Officials have said some of the proceeds may be going towards funding the Taliban.
    Outspoken parliamentarian Ramazan Bashardost is particularly critical of the developments of the past five years.
    “There is freedom for the people … but in the economy, politics and military it is a disaster,” he told AFP.
    “In Afghanistan there is now less security today than one year ago, there are a lot of people without jobs.”

Roberts also notes that, despite the many, extremely costly military operations the US and its allies have undertaken in and around Afghanistan, both Osama bin Laden– whose “harboring” by the Taliban had been the reason the Bushites invaded the country in the first place– and Mullah Mohammad Omar, the Taliban leader, are still at large. (Funny that Rumsfeld makes no mention of that in his piece, don’t you think?)
I frankly admit that I don’t know enough about Afghanistan to be able to judge with confidence whether the situation of the country’s people is, on balance, better today than it was when the Taliban were in power, or not. One thing that seems clear is that it was pretty bad then, and it is pretty bad now, as well. And clearly, a large proportion of the country’s 30 million people are currently quite unable to feel “secure.”
I opposed the US invasion when it was still being prepared (though perhaps, in retrospect, not forcefully enough.) In the weeks after September 11, 2001, I argued that smart, coordinated, international police action was the best way to capture Osama Bin Laden and enough of his key lieutenants to incapacitate Al-Qaeda’s global networks.
But the Bushites were determined to wage war– and to wage it, as we soon enough learned, not just against Afghanistan but also against Iraq.
And now, the US-led forces are tied down badly, and bleeding, in both countries. But the peoples of Afghanistan and Iraq– especially, I think, Iraq– are bleeding far, far worse than any of the invading countries.
We US citizens need to become a lot clearer than we have been thus far about the degree of harm and suffering that our government’s actions have inflicted on other peoples around the world. We need, desperately, to find new, non-violent paradigms for how our government can set about resolving the concerns and conflicts it will inevitably have with other governments– and we need to start to advocate strongly for, and follow, those nonviolent paradigms, rather than allowing our government to continue along the path of militarism and domination.
We need to bring our troops home from Iraq, and from Afghanistan, and to require our government that it work respectfully with the other nations of the world to find new models for addressing the security challenges that will remain in those two countries, as well as in far too many other (long-neglected) countries around the world. At least, if we start slashing our government’s spending on the military there should be a lot of money– from our own national budget, as well as from the budgets of other nations that currently try to compete or to “catch up with” ours in this regard– available to start redirecting toward new and effective models of UN peacekeeping, toward righting global economic imbalances, and to meeting the general global challenge of under-development and inequality.
But I think this whole effort has to start with recognizing the degree of harm our government’s militarism has already inflicted on the world.
One good way to come out against this will, of course, present itself when we go to the vote November 7. I have no illusions that most Democratic politicians have more of a “pro-peace” outlook than most Republicans. But at least if we can mobilize our fellow-citizens successfully against this lot now in power, and their policies, then after that we can carry on by urging the Democrats toward a better relationship with the rest of the world…
And in the meantime, we’ll have to carry on putting up with Rumsfeld. But oh, wouldn’t it be great if we had a Congress that would truly try to hold him accountable?

“Tajik intifada” in Kabul?

Al-Hayat is describing the demonstrations in Kabul yesterday as a “Tajik intifada”… That piece indicates that Khairkhaneh, the area of northern Kabul where the US military vehicle lost control and killed a number of passers-by, was near to the headquarters of former Defense Minister Gen. Muhammad Qasem Fahim, a leader of Afghanistan’s Tajik community; and the young people in the neighborhood then comgregated around the convoy to protest– and the American soldiers then fired into the crowd…
The ethnic-Tajik dimension to what happened hasn’t been mentioned in any of the western media reports that I can find except for this one in Newsday by Moises Saman and James Rupert.
They write:

    Various witnesses told of organized crowds of teenaged boys waving pictures of Ahmed Shah Massoud, a guerrilla commander killed in 2001 who is the hero of ethnic Tajiks from the Panjshir Valley in northeast Afghanistan. They voiced suspicion that Panjshiri political activists stoked the rioting to strike at President Hamid Karzai, who in the past 18 months has sidelined several top Panjshiri political figures. The country’s highest ethnic Tajik official, parliament speaker Yunus Qanooni, appealed for calm.

Evidently a lot of different (though overlapping) conflictual things are going on in Afghanistan these days. If the Kabul riots have a strong ethnic-Tajik dimension to them, that makes them noticeably distinct from anything to do with pro-Taliban activism. Though both these strands of the story indicate the deep and still-unrolling failure of the rebuild-Afghanistan project, as I noted here yesterday.
Tajiks make up around 27% of the national population and speak a language called Dari that is close to Persian.
Regarding the growth of Taliban activities– and as a follow-up to the Ahmed Rashid piece I quoted from extensively here yesterday– Rashid has a new piece up on the BBC website.
He writes:

    Nearly 400 Afghans have been killed in an unprecedented offensive by the Taleban, in a bid to pre-empt a major deployment by some 6,000 Nato troops this summer in southern Afghanistan.
    From just a few hundred guerrillas last year, Taleban commander Mullah Dadullah now claims to have 12,000 men under arms and control of 20 districts in the former Taleban heartland in the southern provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul and Uruzgan. There is also a strong Taleban-al-Qaeda presence in the eastern provinces bordering Pakistan.
    Why – five years after the Taleban and al-Qaeda were smashed by US forces – is Afghanistan facing a resurgent Taleban movement that is now threatening to overwhelm it?
    … Neither Nato, nor the American forces they are replacing, have offered an honest assessment of their successes and failures during the past five years.

He then runs through an important “checklist” of the failures of the policies pursued by the US, Nato, the UN, and the Afghan government in the south of the country. It starts (as certainly always seems important to note) with this:

    Washington’s refusal to take state building in Afghanistan seriously after 2001 and instead waging a fruitless war in Iraq, created a major international distraction which the Taleban took advantage of…

Anyway, it’s a good and searing piece of analysis there. (Many of the comments from readers beneath it are also worth reading.)

Afghanistan– the spark of an intifada?

The events in Kabul today looked ominously like the events in Gaza that triggered the Palestinians’ First Intifada against Israel at the beginning of December 1987. Today, as back then, a vehicle that was part of the foreign presence in the country apparently went out of control and ended up killing and injuring a number of the indigenous citizens… Today, as then, that lethal event triggered a response from the citizens that revealed a huge amount of pent-up anger and resentment… (Today, as then, the spokesmen for the foreign presence had previously been saying “all is fine and normal” with the general situation… But the eruption of anger gives the lie to that claim.)
It is far too early to tell how these events in Kabul will play out. The BBC is reporting that,

    At least seven were killed in the shooting and the riots which followed.
    About 2,000 people demonstrated in the city centre, with some moving on to attack buildings in the diplomatic quarter.
    For over two hours there were bursts of gunfire as hundreds of protesters rampaged through Kabul, burning cars and attacking police checkpoints.
    Police and the army – including tanks – moved in to restore law and order and the curfew from 2200 local time (1730 GMT) to 0400 (2330 GMT) was imposed…

But this is Kabul, remember– Afghanistan’s national capital. This is the one place in the country that was supposed to be quite secure for the US-led rebuilding project, even though there has been all kinds of tumult in other Afghan regions. Including in the south, where the Taliban have reportedly been regrouping in battle-groups of as large as 300 men…
Veteran Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid has a very serious piece in Tuesday’s Daily Telegraph. He writes:

    The last thing Tony Blair and President George W. Bush need, at a moment of multiple crises for both of them, is a revamped Taliban taking control of southern Afghanistan – but that is now not impossible to imagine.
    Bush and Blair have only themselves to blame, as they fought an unnecessary war in Iraq and allowed the Taliban and al-Qa’eda to fester in Central Asia during the five years that followed 9/11.
    Yesterday’s widespread riots in Kabul are indicative of how disillusioned many Afghans feel about the failure of the West to help rebuild their country.
    Nato is now stuck with the consequences…
    Fighting a full-scale guerrilla war is not what countries such as Italy, Spain, Holland, Germany and others enlisted for. The mandate from their governments is reconstruction, not combat.
    “Nato will not fail in Afghanistan … the family of nations will expect nothing less than success,” General James Jones, the head of US and Nato forces in Europe, told a recent seminar in Madrid.
    Gen Jones is now desperately trying to persuade contributing countries to end the restrictions they impose on their troops, making it impossible for some of them to fight or commanders to run a proper military campaign.
    “What is the point of deploying troops who don’t fight,” ask many Afghans. That is why Gen Jones calls these caveats – they now number a staggering 71 – “Nato’s operational cancer”.
    Nato’s weaknesses are what worry President Hamid Karzai and the Afghan government. The Taliban and al-Qa’eda know this and more. They have closely followed the testy debates in parliaments across Europe about deploying troops to Afghanistan. They count on inflicting a few bloody casualties, letting body bags arrive in European capitals, and then seeing the protests against deployment escalate.
    The Taliban are also testing American resolve. Nato’s deployment is part of Washington’s agenda to reduce its forces in Afghanistan. It is pulling 3,000 troops out this summer and possibly more later.
    The Karzai government is angry with Washington, because many Afghans see this as the start of a full American withdrawal.
    Despite Bush and Blair claiming to be successfully micromanaging the war on terror, the war is expanding and the region faces increasing chaos
    Al-Qa’eda, now under the operational leadership of the Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahri, has helped reorganise the Taliban, create unlimited sources of funding from the sale of Afghan-grown opium and forged a new alliance linking the Taliban with extremist groups in Pakistan, Central Asia, the Caucasus and Iraq. Al-Qa’eda has facilitated a major exchange of fighters and training between the Taliban and the extremist groups in Iraq.
    Iran is spending large sums out of its windfall oil income in buying support among disaffected and disillusioned Afghan warlords. The day America or Israel attacks Iran to destroy its nuclear programme, these Afghans will be unleashed on American and Nato forces in Afghanistan, opening a new front quite separate from the Taliban insurgency.
    In Central Asia, the Western alliance is floundering. America lost its major military base in Central Asia after Uzbekistan kicked American forces out last year. Emboldened, tiny Kyrgyzstan is now demanding that Washington pay it 100 times more for the base it provides for American forces. Russia and China are working on making sure that America and Nato surrender all their remaining toeholds in Central Asia.
    All this is a result of America, Britain and others taking their eye off the ball and circumventing the indisputable truth of 9/11: that the centre of global jihadism and the threat it poses the world still lies in this region, not in Iraq…

Rashid concludes by writing:

    The Western alliance can still win in Afghanistan and root out terrorism, but only by means of a serious, aggressive and sustained commitment by its member countries. So far at least, that commitment is still not apparent.

I am not so sure that this is still possible. (Anyway, rebuilding Afghanistan is supposed to be UN commitment, and not just one that is dominated by the “Western alliance.”)
Rashid is glaringly correct, however, to note that the effort to rebuild Afghanistan after the overthrow of the Taliban was dealt a body blow by Bush’s reckless decision to invade Iraq.
The poor, poor Afghans! This is the second time in recent history that the US, having won a significant military victory inside their country, then proceeded to majorly short-change the project of post-conflict reconstruction, thereby allowing it to sink back into warlordism, esclating social-political chaos, and all the miseries attendant on that situation.
The first time that happened was after the US-supported “mujahideen” forced the Soviets to withdraw their army from the country in February 1989… But after that, Bush I, and then Clinton, promptly forgot about Afghanistan and allowed the warlords (who had been Washington’s allies in the earlier anti-Soviet campaign– along with Usama Bin You-know-who) to wreak their havoc on the country’s people…
Then, in November 2001, the US won a second significant military victory in Afghanistan when it toppled the Taliban regime there (with the help of many of those same warlords). And once again, in the aftermath of the military victory, Washington took its eyes off the ball, this time swiveling them toward Baghdad.
What is the problem of the US policymaking class? When will they ever learn that a military victory is worth nothing on its own, unless the “victory” that it allows can be nailed down solidly through a smart and committed policy of social-political reconstruction for as long as it takes, afterwards?
(Actually, they did know that once–back in 1945. But somehow the lessons seemed to get forgotten after that.)
This time, the stakes for Washington, and the world, are enormous. Afghanistan seems to be turning into a powder-keg. The US position in Iraq is a draining and futile quagmire. And in both places, the collapse of US power that seems to be approaching faster each day will have much wider regional repurcussions… (Pakistan, for instance, will not easily escape from the tumult that reigns along its ungoverned borderlands with Afghanistan.)
Those of us US citizens who oppose war and violence need to be very calm as we point out that:

    (1) As the Dalai Lama says, violence always begets violence. The fact that the US has invested so hugely in massive machines of violence for so long, and has used them so broadly in the past five years, has unleashed huge cascades of violence around the world. Some of this violence comes back to hit Americans. But most of it has affected the poorest and most desperate people in the communities involved. We should all be ashamed.
    (2) But better than standing around being ashamed, it is time for our country to cease its reliance on violence and to find ways to redirect all that spending, training, and hardware that until now has been poured into the military, and
    (3) Meanwhile, nonviolent ways certainly always exist whereby the world’s conflicts and the any threats to the lives and wellbeing of the US citizenry can be addressed and resolved: We need to return to using and strengthening those nonviolent conflict resolution mechanisms.

Meantime, let’s all just hope and pray that the people(s) of Afghanistan can find a way to de-escalate the violence that now plagues so many of their communities. If the US military cannot be part of a project that is effective at rebuilding Afghanistan, then it should be withdrawn from the country. There, as in Iraq, the argument that the US military presence is needed in order to “keep the peace” now seems very hollow indeed.

Lest we forget, Afghanistan

Afghanistan was where Osama Bin Laden had his headquarters. The Bushies’ first “response” to 9/11 was to take over the country with raw military force, tossing out the Taleban regime that had been so hospitable to OBL.
So you might think that today, four years after 9/11 and nearly four years after the collapse of the Taleban regime, Afghanistan might be well on the road to a return to normalcy, with a pro-US government well ensconced there?
Yes, you might think that– if the whole project of “remaking” Afghanistan along more democratic lines had not been left to the Bush administration… Which, um, decided for the heck of it to launch another nasty little war along the way there.
As it happens, Afghanistan has a parliamentary election on September 18. And in the lead-up to it there have been a lot of (in-)security incidents of some seriousness.
As usual, the Institute for War & Peace Reporting has been doing a good job on the ground there. Kabul-based reported Wahidullah Amani filed this report yesterday:

Continue reading “Lest we forget, Afghanistan”