I wish I’d been in London to grab the first copies of the Guardian’s version of Sir Christopher Meyer’s memoirs. Sure, I know I could have gotten them on-line just as fast– or faster. But still, there’s something delicious about ink on paper.
Here is the Guardian’s portal to the serialization.
I think it’s unprecedented for a recently retired British ambassador to publish such a frank memoir about his recent service. I seem to recall that the Blair government tried to prevent publication of the whole book (which isn’t out yet, I don’t think.) But here, anyway, are the first parts of the serialization.
The main highlight so far is the considered judgment of this seasoned diplomat that Blair had potential leverage with Bush that he could have used to win a better war plan– but that Blair failed to use it.
This, from one of yesterday’s excerpts:
- By the early autumn of 2002, despite Blair’s earlier expressions of unconditional support, Britain should have made its participation in any war dependent on a fully worked-out plan, agreed by both sides, for the rehabilitation of Iraq after Saddam’s demise.
This would have been the appropriate quid pro quo for Blair’s display of “cojones”. We may have been the junior partner in the enterprise, but the ace up our sleeves was that America did not want to go it alone. Had Britain so insisted, Iraq after Saddam might have avoided the violence that may yet prove fatal to the entire enterprise. Unfortunately, and unavoidably, at precisely this moment, political energy in London had become consumed by a titanic struggle to keep public opinion, parliament and the Labour party onside for war. There was little energy left in No 10 to think about the aftermath. Since Downing Street drove Iraq policy, efforts made by the Foreign Office to engage with the Americans on the subject came to nothing.
He then suggests clearly that the “diplomatic” advice Blair was getting from the Foreign Office was crowded out in Balir’s mind by the more “seductive” kinds of info he was getting from his military and intel people…
- The more interesting question is whether No 10, relying heavily – maybe too heavily – on the views of these military and intelligence advisers, as a consequence underestimated its political leverage and ability to affect the course of events. I believe the US and the UK would have stood a better chance of going to war in good order had they planned the campaign not for the spring of 2003, but the autumn – the next spell of cool weather in Iraq.
Besides giving more time to prepare for the aftermath of war, a more deliberate timetable might have made it possible to reach agreement on a second UN resolution. Once that happened, Saddam would have known the game was up. It might have sufficiently ratcheted up the pressure to lead to a coup against him or his flight into exile.
I never interpreted the French refusal to accept the draft of a second resolution as a refusal for ever and a day. In diplomacy, you never say never. Talking to me in private, French officials accuse America and Britain of deliberately exaggerating France’s position to justify going to war without further UN cover. We will know the full truth only when the archives are opened.
Crucially, a slower timetable for war would have avoided that frantic search for a “smoking gun” between December 2002 and the outbreak of war. By going down that road, the Americans and British shifted the burden of proof from Saddam to themselves. We had to show that he was guilty. This turned out to be a strategic error, which to this day, in the absence of WMD, continues cruelly to torment Blair and Bush.
It was precisely these pressures which led to the mistakes and misjudgments of the two British dossiers on Saddam’s WMD.
Enormous controversy surrounds the intelligence on which Blair and Bush relied. I saw a great deal of intelligence material in 2002, and I was myself persuaded that Iraq had WMD.
There is nothing of which I am aware that Blair said publicly about the intelligence for which he did not have cover either from the joint intelligence committee (JIC) or from its chairman, John Scarlett. If either succumbed to political pressure, that is another story.
Had I been in Alastair Campbell’s place, I too would have wanted as categorical a public depiction of Saddam’s threat as possible. Equally I would have expected the JIC to be rigorous in telling me how far I could go.
Tony Blair chose to take his stand against Saddam and alongside Bush from the highest of high moral ground. It is the definitive riposte to the idea that Blair was merely the president’s poodle, seduced though he and his team always appeared to be by the proximity and glamour of American power.But the high moral ground, and the pure white flame of unconditional support to an ally in service of an idea, have their disadvantages.
They place your destiny in the hands of the ally. They fly above the tangled history of Sunni, Shia and Kurd. They discourage descent into the dull detail of tough and necessary bargaining: meat and drink to Margaret Thatcher, but, so it seemed, uncongenial to Tony Blair.
Well, lots more to read and reflect on there. But I need to run.