Since Hamas’s victory in last Wednesday’s elections most of the MSM in the west– Israelocentric as ever– has focused overwhelmingly on “What on earth would this mean for the peace process?”
(As if there had actually, over the past four years existed any peace process! What peace process? Since 2002, Israeli PM Ariel Sharon completely refused to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority– and he maintained that boycott of peace talks even after the election of Mahmoud Abbas as PA President last January… Ehud Olmert, despite stating that he “wants” to get back into talks with the Palestinians, hasn’t gotten around to doing anything about it… So I am still totally mystified by all those “concerned” pundits who say “What will the Hamas victory do to the peace process?” What on earth are they talking about?)
Meanwhile, in the real lives of real Palestinians, chafing under their 39th year of life under foreign military occupation, there will be the huge challenge of trying to assure a peaceful transition of authority from the old Fateh-dominated PA to the newly elected Hamas adminsitration. Ensuring the peacefulness of a political transition from one party to another is a task at the core of democratization… A task that is perhaps even more important than being able to hold a “free and fair” election.
I’m remembering the role Jimmy Carter played, in Nicaragua, in 1990, when Daniel Ortega’s ruling Sandinista Party suffered a surprise defeat at the hands of Violeta Chamorro’s party. Carter played a good role then, stressing the essential democratic principle of ensuring an orderly and calm political transition from one party to another…
And he’s playing the same role in Palestine today. At a time when pundits in what’s called the “western donor community” are voicing all kinds of scary warnings (or perhaps, veiled threats?) to the Palestinians, that the US and EU donor governments “are constrained by law” from directing funding to the PA if it led by a pro-Hamas government, Carter is telling us that isn’t so, and we should all remain calm. This, from today’s NYT:
Former President Jimmy Carter, who led a team of election observers for the Palestinian voting, said in an interview on Friday that the United States and Europe should redirect their relief aid to United Nations organizations and nongovernmental organizations to skirt legal restrictions.
“The donor community can deal with it successfully,” Mr. Carter said. “I would hope the world community can collectively tide the Palestinians over.” He urged support for what he said [international aid-to-Pals boss] Mr. Wolfensohn was describing to him as a $500 million appeal.
“It may well be that Hamas can change,” Mr. Carter said, remembering his presidency, when the Palestine Liberation Organization under Yasir Arafat finally agreed to recognize the existence of Israel and to forswear terrorism. “It’s a mistake to abandon optimism completely.”
He urged Israel and the world: “Don’t drive the Palestinians away from rationality. Don’t force them into assuming arms as the only way to achieve their legitimate goals. Give them some encouragement and the benefit of the doubt.”
Good for him.
There are, of course, many other problems of the political transition that the Palestinians face, even before they get to these issues of economic aid.
Fateh has been in power in the PA since it was established in 1994, and before that in the nationalist movement since 1969. It has massive, deeply entrenched systems of patronage that criss-cross right across the Middle East and around the world. Nearly all of those are now in jeopardy– both because the new, pro-Hamas government will rightly seek control over all national resources, which have become sadly and badly commingled with Fateh’s resources over the years– and because, even while Hamas and its allies will be trying to do that, there’s a very bitter power battle going on inside Fateh, itself.
I wrote a long “obituary” for the secular-nationalist vision of Palestine represented by Fateh, here, on December 30. There, and in the piece I wrote on Palestine for Boston Review two years ago, I noted the crumbling/implosion of the last vestiges of internal discipline inside Fateh.
This near-complete absence of internal discipline in Fateh is already considerably complicating the task of ensuring an orderly post-election transition to the newly-elected administration. In this story, from AP, we learn the following:
Angry [Fateh-affiliated]police stormed the parliament building in Gaza and armed militants marched into Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas’ compound in Ramallah to demonstrate their rejection of Hamas’ authority. Their defiance raised fears of a spike in violence between Palestinian factions.
Clashes have already broken out between the two sides. Hamas gunmen wounded two policemen in Gaza early Saturday in what authorities said was a roadside ambush. The attack came hours after another firefight wounded a Hamas activist and two police officers, one of whom was in a coma Saturday.
Let’s hope for an improvement in discipline, calm-seeking, and de-escalation from all sides. (We are much more likely to see it coming from the Hamas side, than from Fateh’s.)
We learn from that AP story, too, that Hamas’s over-all leader Khaled Mashaal, has suggested that Hamas’s armed forces could be merged into the Palestinian forces— and also, very significantly indeed, this:
Mashaal also said Hamas would abide by existing agreements with the country “as long as it is in the interest of our people.”
Israel and the Palestinians have a host of agreements dealing with everything from administration to peace frameworks. Mashaal did not say which agreements he was referring to.
These are, it seems to me, very mature early decisions to be coming from an organization that, just a week ago, probably did not dream it would end up winning a clear majority in the parliament…
I want to write more, sometime, about the “international aid” that has been doled out to the Palestinians over the past 12 years, and the function it has played in actually keeping the Palestinians in subservience to Israel. The Americans and Israelis– and some EU nations– want it to carry on playing this role! But Hamas is very unlikely indeed to play ball with that.
That’s why I think Jimmy Carter’s suggestion– that aid should continue to go to the Palestinians, but not through the old US- and Israel-dominated channels– is an excellent one. Let’s have international “aid”– to both the Palestinians and the Israelis– that actually supports a robust international diplomacy that terminates this conflict rapidly, and in a decent and sustainable way. Let’s end the system of international “aid” that has massively subsidized Israel’s illegal colonial project in the Palestinian territories while supporting a corrupt Palestinian administration that was expected to do the Israelis’ work of internal repression, for them.