US Iraq policy beyond November 4

Electing Barack Obama is not going to “solve” the many urgent problems Americans face in their (our) long-misguided policy in Iraq. I’ve been lucky in the past few weeks to discuss priorities for the antiwar movement along with peace activists and engaged analysts in different cities around the US, including the gathering organized by the Ecumenical Peace Institute in Berkeley, California, on Saturday.
Here are the main points I take away from those discussions. I’m putting them together in a list here so readers can chime in and make the list more effective:

    1. We should constantly focus on the tight connection between the US’s war in Iraq and the country’s budgetary crisis. The war is currently costing about $8 billion per month. Harvard economists Linda Bilmes and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz estimate (1, 2, 3, and 4) that the final cost of the war to the US budget will be around $3 trillion.
    We should keep front and center the budgetary cost that this war, the war in Afghanistan, and the US’s tens of other coercive military engagements and commitments around the world put on the US taxpayer on a continuing basis.
    2. We should state explicitly that the goal is to end the US wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere— and to down-size the US military (and its budget) to a size that is consonant with the task of, strictly, national defense rather than, as at present, worldwide imperial-style control and coercion.
    Actual defense, that is, in the way that the Swiss or the Costa Ricans do it, rather than nudge-nudge wink-wink “defense” based on global domination in the way the US has done it since the end of the Cold War.
    3. This will necessarily involve building new relations of cooperation and mutual respect with other big and medium-size powers around the world. We should welcome this transformation! Today, the US constitutes less than five percent of global humankind, and the entire “west” only around 12 percent. It is quite absurd to think that the US, or even the whole group of “western” nations, can impose its will on the rest of the world over the long– or even medium– term.
    The vast majority of the peoples of the “rest” of the world strongly want to have a new, much better relationship with the American people. But they want it to be based on mutual respect, not on the “west” continuing to try to maintain its current degree of control over “the rest.”
    4. We are incredibly lucky to have, in the United Nations, an organization that (a) strives to represent and help organize the interests of all the world’s nations; (b) embodies the important ideals of human equality and need to avoid war and violence, pursing only nonviolent means to resolve conflicts; and (c) actually has, in its own institutions, many extremely valuable mechanisms for serving the welfare of all humankind.
    Yes, the UN is imperfect. But its imperfections have been aggravated considerably by the actions that US governments have taken over the past 30 years. And sadly, far too many members of the US political elite today still harbor a primitive and generally ill-informed knee-jerk opposition to the UN. US peace activists therefore need to work hard at publicizing the good the UN has done, countering the disinformation that’s been launched against it, and urging far greater support from all segments of the US public for the UN’s work.
    And yes, we can and should do this while also pressing for some much-needed reform in the UN– not least, a reform of the governance system that currently gives Washington and four other nuclear-armed countries explicit veto power in the UN Security Council.
    5. Regarding Iraq– and come to that Afghanistan and other locations of US military activity– our primary strategy as US-based peace activists should be to urge the US to hand off the power of political decisionmaking regarding these countries to the UN. For example, it is not up to Americans, whether our government or our people, to decide whether Iraq’s people need a referendum, or a new election, or a new Constitution, before they can win their full and unfettered independence from our military’s tight continuing grip. We have no legitimacy or standing to insist on things there being done “our way.”
    The UN, by contrast, does have legitimacy, as the world organization, to be the body that convenes the negotiations that will be necessary if the people of Iraq (or Afghanistan) are to regain the true national sovereignty and national independence that our government’s actions have withheld from them for too long.
    In both countries, this will involve the UN convening and chairing negotiations over the following matters:

      a. The establishment of a durable and fair internal political order that is free from the outside influence of the US and any other outside parties;
      b. The establishment of a durable regional order, involving at the very least the governments of all countries that directly abut Iraq (or, Afghanistan) as well as leading representatives of the country itself and any other such parties as the UN negotiating chief deems necessary for the success of the negotiation; and
      c. The modalities and mechanisms for the complete withdrawal and return home of the US military occupation force, and the institution of other, politically legitimate mechanisms for assuring public order in Iraq and Afghanistan. (These may be some combination of local forces, responsible to the newly constituted or newly validated internal political order, and UN peacekeepers responsible to the UN Security Council.)

    6. US peace activists should work hard to remain well informed about the political developments within both Iraq and Afghanistan and to build good, respectful relations with representatives of all streams of opinion in both countries, especially their nationalist (anti-occupation) movements.
    In Iraq, the current parliament, which was elected under US auspices in December 2005, has since then adopted many nationalist positions and has done a lot to block the Bush administration’s attempts to impose a long-term military presence on their country. We should strengthen our links with Iraq’s parliamentarians and all other Iraqis working for a US withdrawal from Iraq that is speedy, total, and orderly.
    In Afghanistan, the parliament does not seem to play such a clear role. But there, too, there are many leading politicians within the US-established political order who have shifted towards challenging the US’s current high degree of control over the country’s politics. Many US peace activists are understandably appalled by the anti-woman and otherwise repressive policies of the Taleban. But there are many anti-US forces who are not Taleban-style authoritarians, so we should remain wary of attempts to lump all anti-US forces there together as simply “Taleban.” Anyway, Afghanistan is the country of the Afghans, not our country; and all previous attempts by “western” (including Soviet) outsiders to dominate and transform the country have failed miserably. The UN, which represents all the countries that (unlike the US) abut Afghanistan and are very intimately affected by developments there, is truly in a better position to lead the diplomacy needed to help stabilize its people’s lives, which for nearly 30 years now have been battered and torn apart by war.
    7. As an important part of the transformation (or “righting”) of our country’s relations with the rest of the world, we should start campaigning to convert our bloated defense industries into vibrant centers for research and production of goods needed for a pro-green upgrading of our country’s civilian infrastructure.
    The economic recession has already started to hurt many Americans; and we can expect it will continue for many years, and most likely get worse and stay worse for quite some time. The dangerous arguments of those in the military-industrial complex who say that our military spending provides jobs, and therefore should not be cut, need to be countered directly, at every level. Instead of using taxpayer money to sustain this bloated and quite counter-productive military machine, let’s use it to build bridges, schools, homes, a functioning health-care network, and windmills!
    The rest of the world truly does not need– or, in most cases, want– the American military to control and police it. And nor should we be happy about playing that role.

I believe that the time to discuss these ideas, and really push to get them out there in the US national discussion, is now. We need to get these ideas and these demands onto the agenda not just of whoever is elected president in November, but also of every incoming member of Congress, and every Senator.
Our country is truly at a turning point: one that goes much deeper than “just” a few changes of personnel at the top. We are at a turning point in our relations with the rest of the world. President Obama– if indeed it is he who is elected– may get some strong initial support from other peoples around the world. But they will be watching his actions and not just his words or his demeanor.
As President, Obama might reframe the terms of our country’s relations with the rest of humankind. (And I suppose John McCain could, too; though that seems less likely.) However, we should be quite clear that Obama has come up within the existing US political system and been formed almost completely within the country’s leading institutions. He has taken money from plenty of lobbyists and has shown himself very receptive to their urgings on a number of issues, including Israel and– most recently– the Paulson bailout. So we should have no illusions that simply electing him will be enough to bring about the change the world’s peoples so sorely need. He will need a lot more “nudging” and persuasion to do so from all sectors of US society.
The above list of position points on our country’s policies towards Iraq, other military engagements, and the need to end the current, massively militarized nature of our country’s engagement with the rest of the world is just one part of the effort I am making in these weeks to “Re-imagine America”– both at home and abroad. We really are at a turning point: I can’t stress that point enough. The current crisis of US-led casino capitalism, coming on top of the demonstrated failure of the Bush administration’s attempts to impose its will by force on the peoples of distant Afghanistan and Iraq, gives us an unprecedented opportunity to change the terms of our internal debates over policy priorities at a very deep level.
I started to do this in my book Re-engage! America and the World After Bush, which still, by the way, provides a handy compilation of the basic facts and figures on which my current arguments are based. (So please go ahead and buy ten copies to give to all of your friends…)
In Ch.6 of the book I charted the already fairly rapid decrease in the US’s “relative” power in world affairs that has occurred over the past 8-10 years. But the book came out in May. And since then, the US’s political standing inside both Iraq and Afghanistan has deteriorated notably. In Iraq, the US has proven incapable of imposing its “conditions” on the Baghdad government regarding the security agreement, or the oil law: two goals that Washington had previously defined as crucial.
In Afghanistan, the political and military situations have both deteriorated a lot. Obama’s view that “more US troops” is all that’s needed to solve the problem there is quite misguided. It isn’t, basically, a military problem at all, but a profound political problem regarding the legitimacy of the US and NATO’s very presence in the country.
The most recent “straw” added onto the sagging camel’s back of US power in the world has been the financial crisis.
But– as indicated above– all these matters are connected in numerous ways. We need a new, holistic, outside-the-box, and definitely outside-the-Beltway way to think about them and deal with them. That’s what I’m trying to work on here. Please contribute your own (constructive) ideas about an agenda that is both possible and visionary to the brainstorming here…

Paulson’s outrageous bailout explained

Excellent Princeton economist Uwe Reinhardt explains Henry (‘Goldman alum’) Paulson’s current bailout plan in straightforward terms on Willem Buiter’s FT blog:

    While Paulson loathes the idea of giving U.S. taxpayers a genuine, voting equity stake in the banks taxpayers are forced to bail out… [he] sees nothing wrong with extending such voting privileges to foreign investors, including the sovereign wealth funds of Middle Eastern potentates or of Communist China. For example, Paulson most likely was cheered by news that Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan’s largest megabank, will receive a genuine equity stake of up to 20 per cent in Morgan Stanley for a cash injection of about $9 billion. On the other hand, for an injection into Morgan Stanley of $10 billion of their funds, U.S. taxpayers will receive merely non-voting, callable, preferred stock, which effectively tells U.S. taxpayers to sit at a separate table and to shut up, like good little children.
    What prompts the Secretary of the Treasury to treat American taxpayers so contemptuously, as second-class stakeholders? Why is it so much more abhorrent to him to have designated representatives of U.S. taxpayers sit at a bailed out bank’s board table than granting that privilege to, say, a Middle Eastern sheik or a Japanese banker?
    … If, after this deal, anyone still believes that our hyperkinetic Secretary of the Treasury works tirelessly for the American taxpayer, rather than for his former colleagues on Wall Street who helped push the nation to the current economic precipice, I would offer that true believer some choice ocean-front property in Iowa. As John Kanas, CEO of North Fork Bancorp was quoted on the bailout in The Wall Street Journal (October 15, 2008: A16): “It looks like a pretty good deal for the recipients and probably a pretty tough deal for taxpayers. It seems quite explicit that there’s no strings attached to this money. It seems like a gift.

Just two more quick notes from me.
First: Why is no-one in Congress raising any serious protest about the fact that, shortly before Paulson announced the most recent bailout to US banks only, Goldman Sachs applied for– and was rapidly granted– permission to convert itself from a brokerage house into a bank?
The NYT has a good round-up of the extensive influence of the network of Goldman ‘alums’ inside the Bush– and Clinton– administrations, here. And ‘lest we forget,’ the NYT’s reporting on Goldman’s record-shattering 2006 profits and bonuses, is here. Bonuses that year averaged $622,000– though highly inequitably distributed amongst the employees…
Second, a gender note… Ever wonder, as I have, why all the pictures of people working on financial or commodities trading floors, or those ‘rogues’ galleries’ of the top execs of financial corporations– or, indeed, of the US Treasury Department– show images of overwhelmingly male participants??
Shannon Rupp tells us that Harvard researchers have figured out that,

    Wall Street’s red-suspendered boys… can’t help themselves because they have more testosterone than average, which makes them take big risks to earn big prizes. That’s an advantage when chasing woolly mammoths with wooden spears, but it’s likely to cause problems in money management…

I guess I could have guessed as much.
So now, what will the present President and Congress– or the next President and Congress– do about all this??

A marriage made in heaven: Miller and Fox

Cue the violins… Howard Kurtz reports that Fox News has hired disgraced propagandist Judy Miller to do on-air analysis and write for their website. (HT: Think Progress’s Amanda, who gives some good links on the topic here.)
As Kurtz notes, “In the run-up to the Iraq war, Miller reported stories on the search for Saddam Hussein’s supposed weapons of mass destruction that turned out to be untrue.”
He quotes Fox Senior Vice-President John Moody as saying merely, “We’ve all had stories that didn’t come out exactly as we had hoped.”
That’s nonsense. Here’s what a reporter does: She or he reports on what has already happened Or, if the facts of what has happened are still unclear, she writes about as much as she can verifiably report on, identifying her sources with as much frankness as possible, and perhaps indicating the areas she has been unable to fully verify or understand.
She does not knowingly use unsubstantiated or unsubstantiable allegations, “reporting” them as if they are the truth.
Also, a reporter does not speculate about the future, or about what “may perhaps” be known in the future.
In that sense, Moody’s comment that “We’ve all had stories that didn’t come out exactly as we had hoped” makes no sense at all. Reporters’ stories only “come out” differently than the reporter hopes if something happens to them in the editing process that distorts the meaning that the reporter clearly intended to convey. (It happens.) But that has nothing– nothing!– to do with a reported speculation, which is all that Miller was purveying in her dreadful and actively inflammatory reporting pre-March 2003, “coming out” differently in real life once the speculation has proven to be quite ill-founded.
Moody’s use of words tells us a lot about the relationship Fox News has with the whole concept of careful, evidence-based reporting: Tenuous at best, perhaps downright contemptuous at worst.
Judy Miller should fit right in.

The world– voting Obama

So “three guys from Iceland” have done something a lot more useful and interesting than set up financial derivatives to drive their country into bankruptcy. (Sorry, guys, I couldn’t the resist the reference. Also yes, I do understand that Icelandic men do many things other than engage in advanced casino capitalism.)
Long story short: These guys set up this site, which invites everyone around the world to register their own preference as between John McCain and Barack Obama. (HT: Massoud.)
Right now, the results are: Obama 87.4%, with 273,7087 votes, and McCain 12.6% with 39,330 votes. Voters have participated from 197 countries.
Pass this on! Vote!
In the country-by-country results, McCain has done ways best in the FYR of Macedonia, where he got 89.1% of votes cast. Then, there’s Burkina Faso, where he got two of the four votes cast.
Otherwise the world looks blue– including, a few countries tally 100% for Obama.
So maybe McCain would like a nice vacation after Nov. 4th in FYROM, where he can bask in the love…

Discussing Afghanistan, UN over at Registan

I am continually amazed at the number of otherwise thoughtful and well-informed Americans who seem to have a deep blindspot when it comes to looking at the record of the UN. The most recent case in point is Joshua Foust over at Registan. I’ve been engaged in a discussion on this very point with him over there, since yesterday.

Notes from Southern California

Coming here has reminded me (again) of what a huge, diverse country this is. First observation: There are almost no public signs here that there’s a national election afoot, whereas back home in Virginia there are Obama or McCain yard signs nearly everywhere you look and the airwaves are saturated with the two candidates’ advertising. That’s because Virginia is seen as “in play”, whereas California is seen as so solidly in the Obama camp that it’s not worth much of anyone’s time to do much organizing for that race here.
I have seen a couple of Obama t.v. ads here.
Another difference: “Back east,” which is how a lot of Californians refer to the east of the country even if they’re not personally from there, we celebrate this annual holiday called Columbus Day. I think it was established as a means of secular afirmation/self-affirmation for Italian-Americans… Anyway, there’s a big Italian-American fraternal organization called Knights of Columbus that I think has worked hard to try to win maximum observance of Columbus Day. Here, as far as I can tell, few institutions observe it. Indeed, the Columbus “brand”: is viewed by many Californians as racist and possibly also genocidal. My son, who recently moved to Berkeley (N. California) said that there the day– which in the east was observed on Monday– is instead observed as “Native Peoples’ Day.”
Yesterday I drove from LA around 75 miles east to a small city called Riverside. For some reason these often scary, traffic-clogged highways are called “freeways.” So this is the “freedom” GWB seeks to impose on everyone else around the world? Yikes! (Not having a decent mass transit option strikes me as distinctly restrictive rather than liberating.)
At lunch at Riverside Community College, my hosts talked some about the terrible effects the mortgage/housing collapse has been having on the local economy and on the quality of life of some local people. One person described her mother now living in a house “surrounded by heaps of junk” which are all that’s left of a new multi-house development that went bust and couldn’t be finished.
In that context, I found this post yesterday from Calculated Risk pretty poignant. It’s the juxtaposition of the two items from above the fold yesterday’s LA Times… The photo there, which is of the wildfires now threatening some places in the northeast of Los Angeles’ massively sprawled out conurbation, sits right under a headline announcing, in effect, the “end of casino capitalism as we know it”, i.e. Paulson’s decision to injact $250 billion of taxpayer money into nine big national banks.
Will it indeed be the end of casino capitalism as we know it, though? Who knows? That depends a lot on how the re-regulation gets enacted, as well as how Paulson and his successor use the extraordinary powers the Treasury department has been given…
Anyway, I gotta run to prepare for my two talks today.

LA, Seattle, San Fran, Santa Barbara…

… book-related events coming up soon now.

The following talks will all be related to my book Re-engage! America and the World After Bush. In most of them I’ll be focusing quite a lot on the “shifting global balances” theme that’s in Chapter 6 of the book…

Here’s the schedule:

  • Oct. 14: 12:40 p.m. book talk at Riverside City College, 4800 Magnolia Ave., Riverside, CA. Further info, contact Marylin Jacobsen
    (951) 222-8160
  • Oct. 15: 11 a.m. book talk at California State University, Long Beach, Multicultural Center. Cohosted by the Center for Peace and Social Justice, the Center for International Education, and the International Studies Department.
  • Oct. 15: 4 p.m. Presentation at UCLA’s Von Grunebaum Center for Middle East Studies, West Los Angeles, CA. Title: “Shifting global balances: Outlook for the Middle East.”
  • Oct. 16: 12:15 – 1:30 p.m. Brown-bag lunch and reading at the Evergreen Library, Evergreen State University,  in Olympia, WA.
  • Oct. 16: 4 p.m. get-together with participants in the GRuB program, Olympia, WA.
  • Oct. 16: 7 p.m. Public discussion and book signing at the University of Puget Sound, near Tacoma, WA.
  • Oct. 17: Speaking to an international affairs class at Univ. of Puget Sound, Tacoma, WA.
  • Oct. 18: 1:00 p.m. Meeting with interfaith peace strategists, Berkeley, CA.
  • Oct. 22: Meeting with international affairs class at Santa Barbara City College, Santa Barbara, CA.
  • Oct. 22: 5- 6:30 p.m. Lecture at UC-Santa Barabara. Title: “The Middle East and the Shifting Global Balance.” HSSB, Room 4020.
  • Oct. 25: 8 a.m.- 12:30 p.m. Featured speaker at the UN Day celebration held by the Santa Barbara Coalition for Global Dialogue, Santa Barbara, CA.

Come if you can! And tell your friends.

Congrats to Paul Krugman

Huge congratulations on his winning the Nobel Prize for Economics.
It turns out it’s for work he did quite a while ago on trade patterns and economic geography. I haven’t read the citation yet, but I hope they do mention his role as an exemplary public intellectual here in the US.
I haven’t always agreed with him. For example, I thought the support he expressed for the Paulson plan when it was first produced, though very strictly qualified, was still ways too strong. But still, in the MSM he’s been the major voice I’ve been seeing who’s been consistently warning of the dangers of CDO’s and, especially, CDS’s.
Moreover, he also roamed far from the classical ‘beat’ of an economics writer to write excellent and very sharp warnings of the dangers of the Bushists’ rush to war in Iraq. That, at a time when alleged foreign-affairs ‘experts’ on the NYT’s columnists’ roll (yes, that’s you, Tom Friedman) were giving strong support to the go-to-war project.
Now, I suppose, I should go and read what it was, exactly, that he got this Nobel for…

More on Afghanistan, the unwinnable war

China Hand has posted yet another great round-up of what’s been happening in Afghanistan and Pakistan recently.
He notes that just about everybody except the US’s leading politicians and Pakistani prez Asif Ali Zardari has now become convinced that the US-led military campaign against the Taleban– and, I would add, other anti-Karzai forces– in Afghanistan is unwinnable. (Zardari may or may not think it’s unwinnable. But for now, he is so deeply reliant on the financial aid he’s getting from the Pentagon that he carries on acting as though it can be won.)
China goes through a long list of people who now say publicly that the Taleban have to be negotiated with and cannot be destroyed or defeated on the battlefield. These include:

    * Afghan prez Hamid Karzai,
    * Taleban head Mullah Omar,
    * The Saudis (who recently hosted a reconciliation meeting between reps of the above two parties),
    * The British military commander in Helmand,
    * The editors of Britain’s Financial Times,
    * Britain’s outgoing ambassador to Kabul, Sherard Cowper-Cowles,
    * The Danish Foreign Minister,
    * The UN Sec-Gen’s rep in Kabul, Kai Eide…

… So the only major relevant parties who still act as though a military “victory” is possible against the Taleban are… the two US presidential candidates, nearly all other members of the US political elite– and Prez Zardari of Pakistan.
What’s more, as this report from the Council on Foreign Relations’ ‘Pakistan Policy Working Group’ makes clear, a US military “success” in Afghanistan also requires that Washington use muscular means to force Pakistan to support the effort.

Continue reading “More on Afghanistan, the unwinnable war”