Author: admin

Thinking on Iran decision-making

This missive offers up ongoing research to colleagues and jwn readers for comment. sh
Lately, I’ve been paying closer attention to various Iranian think-tanks, particularly those that are part of a complex behind-the-headlines foreign policy decision-making process — one rarely written about in the west, much less understood. Even the need to study such a process would be “foreign” to those imbibing the shallow propaganda about the Islamic Republic being a “totalitarian theocracy.”
Yet even serious Western analysts and journalists take fuzzy short-cuts. They commonly start with factional tendencies on various domestic issues and then assume, quite erroneously, that these “divides” translate neatly into similar takes on international affairs. When contrary evidence inevitably arises, analysts revise and (I suspect) often invent, all manner of elaborate sub-factional group labels, which then get reformulated from one book to the next, often by the same author.

Continue reading “Thinking on Iran decision-making”

Advancing Security and Opportunity — US Style

The military effort to “advance security and opportunity, so that Pakistanis and Afghans can pursue the promise of a better life” is accelerating in both countries. It sounded good when President Obama said it at the White House:

    We meet today as three sovereign nations joined by a common goal: to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda and its extremist allies in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their ability to operate in either country in the future. And to achieve that goal, we must deny them the space to threaten the Pakistani, Afghan, or American people. And we must also advance security and opportunity, so that Pakistanis and Afghans can pursue the promise of a better life.
    . . .But we must also meet the threat of extremism with a positive program of growth and opportunity. And that’s why my administration is working with members of Congress to create opportunity zones to spark development. That’s why I’m proud that we’ve helped advance negotiations towards landmark transit-trade agreements to open Afghanistan and Pakistan borders to more commerce.
    Within Afghanistan, we must help grow the economy, while developing alternatives to the drug trade by tapping the resilience and the ingenuity of the Afghan people. We must support free and open national elections later this fall, while helping to protect the hard-earned rights of all Afghans. And we must support the capacity of local governments and stand up to corruption that blocks progress
    . . .we must stand with those who want to build Pakistan. And that is why I’ve asked Congress for sustained funding, to build schools and roads and hospitals. I want the Pakistani people to understand that America is not simply against terrorism — we are on the side of their hopes and their aspirations, because we know that the future of Pakistan must be determined by the talent, innovation, and intelligence of its people.

Continue reading “Advancing Security and Opportunity — US Style”

Another Scary Terror Report

The new annual State Department Report on Terrorism is out. It’s primarily the same as last year’s report. You were expecting changes maybe?
Here are the lead paragraphs from last year. . .

    AL-QA’IDA AND ASSOCIATED TRENDS: Al-Qa’ida (AQ) and associated networks remained the greatest terrorist threat to the United States and its partners in 2007. It has reconstituted some of its pre-9/11 operational capabilities through the exploitation of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), replacement of captured or killed operational lieutenants, and the restoration of some central control by its top leadership, in particular Ayman al-Zawahiri. Although Usama bin Ladin remained the group’s ideological figurehead, Zawahiri has emerged as AQ’s strategic and operational planner.

. . .and this year.

    AL-QA’IDA AND ASSOCIATED TRENDS: Al-Qa’ida (AQ) and associated networks continued to lose ground, both structurally and in the court of world public opinion, but remained the greatest terrorist threat to the United States and its partners in 2008. AQ has reconstituted some of its pre-9/11 operational capabilities through the exploitation of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the replacement of captured or killed operational lieutenants, and the restoration of some central control by its top leadership, in particular Ayman al-Zawahiri. Worldwide efforts to counter terrorist financing have resulted in AQ appealing for money in its last few messages.

Same old stuff.

Continue reading “Another Scary Terror Report”

The Year of the Ox II

First, going back to the year of the Golden Snake (nothing personal, George) — April 26, 2001:

    REPORTER: Do we have an obligation to defend the Taiwanese?
    GEORGE W. BUSH: Yes we do. And the Chinese must understand that. Yes I would.
    REPORTER: With the full force of the American military?
    GEORGE W. BUSH: Whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself.

Continue reading “The Year of the Ox II”

Ahmadinejad: “Whatever decision they (Palestininians) take is fine with us”

ABC’s This Week program today featured an extended interview, conducted apparently last Wednesday, with Iran’s President Ahmadinejad. (A/N) Here’s the full transcript, and (H/T to Nader) here’s a new link to the full video.
As usual, it seems the western media is missing the significance of what he said. The discussion on ABC’s “This Week” after the interview is even worse; They essentially ignored what Ahmadinejad said. ABC had a scoop on their hands, they sat on it for several days, and flat missed it!
But contrary to VOA and AFP headlines, I don’t think it’s at all clear that A/N has added “preconditions” for US-Iran talks. At one point in the interview, yes, he indicates that any talks should have a clear agenda, and that should be worked out ahead of time. But he isn’t about to do so in public for ABC. Is that so shocking? (And it’s light years different from the old Bush/Rice position that Iran had to stop enrichment first, then we could talk about it.)
In any case, at another spot in the interview, Ahmadinejad insists: “We are always ready to talk… with no preconditions.” (so no headline there)
Second, yes, A/N does comment on the holocaust, its ramifications for the Middle East, and its study. Readers can read the passage for themselves. While grating, I don’t see any holocaust “denial” here, per se.
Most newsworthy, and of surprise to those who subscribe to the Ahmadinejad as “Hitler” motif, the Iranian President had this to say about a two-state solution for Israel-Palestine.

Continue reading “Ahmadinejad: “Whatever decision they (Palestininians) take is fine with us””

Give Me An I

and an S, and an R,A,E and L
Whaddya got? You got the Israel 2009 pep rally, more formally known as the “AIPAC Policy Conference: The pro-Israel community’s preeminent annual gathering, with world leaders and activists, Policy Conference 2009, May 3-5, Washington, D.C.”
AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee calls itself America’s Pro-Israel Lobby. The annual Israel pep rally is unique. There is no other country that has a promotional pep rally like this. Imagine, Israel is only about the size of New Jersey, with a million less people than New Jersey, and yet the American Israel Public Affairs Committee has such clout. I’m guessing that there’s money involved. Lots of money.
The 2009 Israel Pep Rally promises to a blockbuster. If it’s anything like previous years it’ll feature 7,000 people, paying $499 each, including half the US Senate and many House members. It’ll be followed by 500 meetings with lawmakers in furtherance of policies and programs friendly to Israel.
To get a real feeling of the content and energy level, view the video here.

Continue reading “Give Me An I”

Baskerville Q&A with Thomas M. Ricks

At the end of this morning’s entry about the centennial of Iran’s “American martyr,” I noted that Dr. Thomas M. Ricks was to discuss his forthcoming book about Howard Baskerville via a live global chat, hosted via the US State Department’s Bureau of International Information Programs. While the technology apparently didn’t cooperate, I am grateful to receive a raw transcript, prior to its formal publication.
With my own minor edits and a reordering of the topics, here are Ricks’ replies from today’s very interesting session. Topics covered include: How does Ricks know so much about Baskerville, and how is he studying him? Was Baskerville an idealist? How important was he? Might Baskerville even now be a bridge between Iran and the US?
Ricks describes his project:

[Baskerville] is the subject of my present research which should be completed this fall and resulting in a book. In doing this history work, I have come to realize how many ways we are affected by the world around us, the joys and sufferings people undergo, and the ways people solve problems. Baskerville was very affable young man and may I be so bold as to say an excellent ambassador of many of our American ideals and bravery. He truly enjoyed his life in Tabriz and lived life to its fullest.”

Question: “Is Mr. Baskerville a martyr, a hero, or an “example”?

Thomas M. Ricks: “I believe that Baskerville shows us Americans the potentially good role we as a people may pursue with the “other” people of the world. He is an excellent example, in my mind, of our own ideals (he says so himself) of commitment to just and progressive causes in the name of the majority (environmental issues, human and civil rights of women and children, etc.), rather than supporting the myriad of hard liners and global tough guys. Baskerville was motivated as much by his commitment to the Presbyterian mission spirit of public service as he was by his own reading of French and modern US history and the aspirations (and political culture) of his family and the atmosphere in the 1900s when there were so many diverse actions and political positions in the US.”

Continue reading “Baskerville Q&A with Thomas M. Ricks”

100 years ago: An American Martyr

Today marks the 100th Anniversary of the death of Howard Baskerville, a 24 year-old American who literally gave his life for Iran. Even now, his name is remembered fondly among Iranians, as their “American martyr.”
Baskerville’s story ought to be better known in the US, for in it Americans will learn of Iranian struggles for freedom and of a still lingering reservoir of goodwill for Americans. For starters, I recommend the essay in the Princeton Alumni Weekly by Mark Bernstein. Ironically, it’s also available in Persian, courtesy the US State Department web site here.
The short version begins when Baskerville, a Nebraska native and a fresh 1907 Princeton graduate, took his first post as a teacher at the American school in Tabriz, run by Presbyterian missionaries. Iran, or Persia as it was then known, was in the throes of its Constitutional Revolution era. Sustained protests had forced the reigning shah to permit the election of Iran’s first parliament (majlis) which in turn wrote the first constitution anywhere in the region.
But by mid 1908, a new Shah, Muhammad Ali Shah was colluding with Russians and British imperialists to crush the constitutional reformers. (a reason why Iranians to this day remain intensely suspicious of British intentions) Tabriz, then Iran’s second largest city and located in northwestern Iran, was the heart of reformist resistance. Baskerville’s students included the best from leading Tabriz families, and as he learned more of their struggle, he in turn shared his understanding of America’s own rebellion from imperial control and its constitutional liberties, a subject he had learned directly from no less an authority than a Princeton professor by the name of Woodrow Wilson.
When royalist forces put Tabriz under seige, Baskerville felt he could not stand by while the strangled city was reduced to starvation, much to the consternation of the US consul and to his Presbyterian mission. Baskerville took up the sword, and in March 1909, organized 150 of his students to help defend the city. The story does not end well for Baskerville, as he was killed while on a desperate mission to lead a small force through the siege lines to retrieve food.
Yet Baskerville’s sacrifice was neither in vain, nor forgotten.

Continue reading “100 years ago: An American Martyr”

Recuerda Los Niños Héroes

Remember the boy heroes — Mexicans do.
Who were the boy heroes?

    Los Niños Héroes (the “Boy Heroes”) were six teenage military cadets who died defending Mexico at Mexico City’s Chapultepec Castle (then serving as the Mexican army’s military academy) from invading U.S. forces in the September, 1847 Battle of Chapultepec.
    Their commanders, General Nicolás Bravo and General José Mariano Monterde, had ordered them to fall back from Chapultepec, a large building on a steep hill near Mexico City, but the cadets did not; instead, they resisted the invaders until they were killed, with accounts maintaining that the last survivor leapt from Chapultepec Castle, down a steep cliff, wrapped in the Mexican flag to prevent it from being taken by the enemy.
    The cadets are honored by an imposing monument at the entrance to Chapultepec Park; and the name Niños Héroes, along with the cadets’ individual names, are commonly given to streets, squares and schools across the country. For many years they appeared on the MXP $5000 banknote, and they currently appear on the MXN $50 coin. Mexico City Metro station Metro Niños Héroes is also named after them.

Why do I bring this up?

Continue reading “Recuerda Los Niños Héroes”