US/Allawi have overplayed their hand

** Newsflash!** While I was writing the following, the first reports came in of the breakdown of the Sadr-Allawi peace talks. That doesn’t alter much of the following, and I’ve commented on some possible implications of the talks breakdown at the end of the post.
Following up on this post here Thursday, it now seems clear to me that in forcing the confrontation against the Mahdi Army in Najaf, the US-Allawi forces seriously overplayed their hand. And over the next few days we will see what consequences they have to take for that.
My evidence for this judgment is the continuation/acceleration of the same process of political erosion of Allawi’s support that I wrote about Thursday.
(A note to US strategic planners in Iraq–if indeed, there are any: “It’s about the politics, stupid!” Another note: “Ever read Clausewitz?”)
The prime evidence I saw Friday for Allawi’s political erosion was twofold:
Firstly, some fascinating AP photos on my AOL feed showing a massive, anti-Allawi pray-in that the Sadrists had organized at the gates of the Green Zone in Baghdad. They didn’t say how many thousands of Sadrist men had joined the action, but it looked like many thousands. To get there, they had had to walk, many of them, in from Sadr City (ever wonder why there’s no massive urban neighborhood in Iraq called Allawi City?), cross one of the bridges across the Tigris, and then get to the place where they prayed. Disciplined, in straight rows, they prayed, as Muslim men and boys learn to do at a young age.
I can’t put in a link to these photos from my AOL feed. I looked for them in today’s WaPo and NYT, but couldn’t find them. Why not? I guess the editors there don’t understand the importance of that story… They mentioned the pray-in only ways, ways down in a story dominated by the military confrontation… Maybe they should read Clausewitz, as well?
Secondly, news on Aljazeera.net, also on various western newswires, saying that Sayed Muhammad Bahr al-Uloum, the respected, Najaf-based Shi-ite cleric whom Bremer had put on the IGC, said that because of the US attack on Najaf, he has lost his trust in the Americans:

    “The Americans have turned the holy city into a ghost town. They are now seen as full of hatred against Najaf and the Shia. Nothing I know of will change this,” the former president of the now defunct council said on Friday.
    “I do not understand why America craves crisis. A peaceful solution to the confrontation with Muqtada could have been reached. We were hoping that Prime Minister Iyad Allawi would lead the way, but he sided with oppression.”

Well, friends, I don’t understand why the people currently ruling the US crave crisis in Iraq, either. But that certainly seems to be the case.
Today, there has already been more news indicating the collapse of Allawi’s political-strategic position. AP reported that,

    Thousands of demonstrators descended on Najaf to show their support Saturday for Shiite militants battling U.S. forces in the holy city as the provincial governor expressed optimism that the crisis would end within the next two days…
    About 10,000 demonstrators, some in buses, others on foot, arrived in Najaf on Saturday to show their solidarity with the militants and act as human shields to protect the city.
    Many of the demonstrators arrived from as far away as Baghdad, as well as the southern cities of Amarah and Nasiriyah, demanding the interim government’s resignation and an end to the offensive here.

This, remember, after the US/Allawists called early last week for civilians to leave Najaf. And after the US claimed that its forces had placed a complete security cordon around the city.
… Well, I have just read the latest reports of the breakdown of the latest peace talks over Najaf.
This means the election-planning conference the Allawists were planning for Sunday will be either rescheduled or a fiasco–or both. It means there are probably about 10,000 more people inside Najaf willing to fight the US forces than there were on Thursday…


Plus, as I had noted in this post on Wednesday, there is now better military training available to the Sadrists in Najaf than there was back in April/May, plus the continued consolidation of the Sadrist-Sunni alliance in opposition to the occupation…
In addition, with all the troubles suffered by the private contractor drivers on whom the US forces are so deeply reliant (thanks to the Cheney-Rumsfeld obsession with privatizing/profitizing everything in sight )– there have already been some reports of the far-flung US forces getting into serious difficulties with logistics.
Now that they are fighting actively in at least five different parts of the country, you better believe that logistics are an ongoing concern.
It was basically logistics, as you might recall, that stymied the British Army’s ops in Mesopotamia back in WW-1.
The next few days could well be a turning point for the US position in Iraq. If I were Karl Rove–which thank God I am not–I would have to be seriously wondering how an electoral victory come November can possibly be plucked out of this crock of chaos, misery, and imminent defeat.

28 thoughts on “US/Allawi have overplayed their hand”

  1. It may be that this showdown was pushed for political reasons out of political desperation. On Fox News this previous week, Bill O’Reilly and various pundits were crowing that getting “this al-Sadr guy” would give Bush a nice clearcut victory that would provide a bounce going into the Repub convention. A show of Military Prowess that lift the morale of the warhawks and make the Republicans look Strong.
    It must frustrate Rove, Cheney, Bush, and the rest of the hang, how vexingly those damned Iraqis refuse to cooperate and follow the reelection script!

  2. In my contact with conservo-wackos, I have seen their case for the war and continued war collapse back to and through several defensive lines: WMD, democracy-building, humanitarian liberation. The only one that’s left is the assertion that we attacked to demonstrate our raw power and that we get the people who wrong us.
    It’s not a fine-tuned argument, and I don’t see it working so well in Iraq, but it must be satisfying on some level to these guys.

  3. Re: “I [helena] don’t understand why the people currently ruling the US crave crisis in Iraq, either.”
    Yesterday’s Newsweek article on ruling by “regulation” may give us a clue.
    “Regulations” are what gov’t agencies use to determine if laws are being followed… and to manipulate contesting or ignoring an industry’s failure to comply.
    “Regulations” twitching is the province of the executive, vs. legislative, branch of our gov’t and are used to get around the legislative process.
    Guess how many regulations have been changed to favor corporations during this administration.
    Guess how many people weren’t noticing, because they were too busy being concerned about ‘iraq’ and/or ‘terrorists’.
    Guess how much the puppet’s masters profit from our distraction.
    Consider if perhaps the entire iraq-ibl “show” is to this end. It seems more probable than any of the other explanations I’ve come across.

  4. Not a good sign of what is to come: Aljazeera.net is reporting that the Iraqi interior minister gave orders through the Najaf police chief to the effect that ALL journalists are to leave their hotels and the city within two hours.
    Interestingly, today is the 51st anniversary of the CIA- sponsored coup that overthrew the fledgling Iranian democracy under the leadership of Mossadegh. If the US action had been supportive of the Iranian efforts toward democracy, what would that region be like today?
    Kinzer’s All the Shah’s Men is a good and timely read.

  5. Regarding historical analogies…
    The British Mesopotamian campaign during WW1 is superficially attractive. But I doubt that the logistical difficulties encountered by US troops in Iraq today could compare with the nightmare that the Brits endured in 1915-16.
    The analogy might be more valid regarding political motivations, though. The Asquith Government was in serious difficulties in the autumn of 1915. The war was going badly(Gallipoli fiasco, collapse of Serbia, Russian defeat in the East, failed Allied offensives in the West)and Asquith was in major political trouble at home. He needed a quick cheap victory in the worst way. So it took little persuading for the War Cabinet to order an advance on Baghdad, which seemed like a proverbial cakewalk. Of course the Turkish forces defending Baghdad were twice as strong as the British estimated, something which the general commanding the advance suspected but which his superiors refused to believe…
    For the rest of the story, consult Death of An Army: the Siege of Kut, 1915-16, by Ronald Millar.

  6. It is indeed ominous that journalists have been ordered out of Najaf. It can only mean that the Americans and their “Iraqi army” (aka Peshmerga) are planning to do things there they do not want the world to know about. I don’t know whether I buy this, but some people think the planned assault on Najaf was the real reason for banning Al Jazeera last week.

  7. Helena, the Iraqi National Conference, much ballyhooed as the first major step toward democracy (pardon me while I throw up), began with over 100 members demanding actual democracy instead of the sham they are being given, and walking out in protest.
    Here is the story from Agence France Press.
    And here are some hightlights:
    “ ‘Part of democracy is that you listen to the Iraqi people. It is time that you heard us and we ask that military operations stop in Najaf immediately and dialogue takes place,’ Mr Mussawi shouted.
    ” ‘Listen to us, prime minister, listen to us,’ said the protesters, as Mr Maasum announced a 30-minute break in the proceedings.
    “The protesters threatened to withdraw from the conference unless US-led military operations against Sadr’s fighters in Najaf were not halted.
    “Delegates also demanded that a national council, which the conference delegates are due to appoint, be allowed to impeach members of the interim government if they decided they are not serving the interests of Iraqis.
    “They also demanded that groups excluded from the event, among them Sadr’s camp, be included.    ”
    Iraqis like this give one hope that one day…

  8. Not terribly related, but I gotta mention it:
    I watched the Iraqi football team’s second Olympic game this morning.
    Iraq: 2
    Costa Rica: 0
    I cried at each goal and when the game finished. The only thing that marred it was the sure knowledge that Bush and `Allawi will take credit for any success Iraq has in the Olympics, and turn it to their own political purposes.
    Sure enough, the Bushies are running a truly disgusting campaign ad in which they nauseatingly claim that “two new free nations, Afghanistan and Iraq, are participating in these Olympics” or words to that effect. The fact that both countries are now under violent, deadly and oppressive foreign domination and are therefore less free than they were before does not seem to matter.

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