Well, I’m still not particularly enamoured of the lackluster John Kerry. And no, despite what it may have seemed from this recent post, I certainly don’t want to see him being pushed any further to the RIGHT.
Anyway, today I happened on this piece by Jodi Wilgoren in the NYT. It’s titled “Kerry Foreign Policy Crew Has a Clintonian Look to It”, which is an accurate description of the situation, as evidenced by what Wilgoren writes about there… Basically, the same-old-same-old: Berger, Holbrooke, Perry, Albright (yawn), with the addition of a couple of slightly younger–but oh yes, most decidely white male–faces.
Zzzzz.
We don’t need that same-old over again. We need vision. We need a true commitment to internationalism. We need… well, a whole bunch of things very different from what these tired old retreads seem to promise.
Anyway, down there in the body of this piece, my attention was drawn to this handful of sentences, describing a conversation Wilgoren must have had with that tired old veteran’s veteran in the foreign-policy analysis world, Les (“let’s split Iraq into three!”) Gelb:
- As an example of the toughness question, Mr. Gelb cited a phrase from the prepared text of Mr. Kerry’s Missouri speech about the nation being stronger and safer when it is “respected, not feared.” He [Gelb] had argued, he said, for “respected and feared.” At the podium, Mr. Kerry slipped in the word “just,” making it “not just feared,” language repeated Thursday.*
That got me thinking. As a U.S. citizen, I am of course happy if my nation is “respected.” (Which it hasn’t been much at all recently, under the culpably idiotic misleadership of our current Prez.)
So respect is good, yes. But why on earth should Americans seek to have our nation “feared”?
Part of this, I suspect, harks back to older doctrines of global strategic deterrence… “The only way to prevent those darned Soviets from hitting us with their nuclear weapons is by making quite clear to them that if they do, by golly, we’ll knock the bejeesus out of ’em right back!” That sort of thing.
Did anyone tell Les (“president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations”) Gelb that the Soviet Union collapsed under the weight of its own massive contradictions back in 1993 and hasn’t been heard of since?
So where does the need to be feared stem from, nowadays?
I suppose if it has any rational (as opposed to little-boy-in-the-schoolyard-bullying) purpose to it these days (though I don’t rule that out, by the way), then it might be because some of these people want to affect the political behavior of other actors in the international sphere in the direction the U.S. government wants, by instilling in them some ‘fear’ of what the U.S. would do to them if they don’t do that.
Actually, that was the whole rationale behind “strategic deterrence” as well. And I always thought that, as a stance in the world, strategic deterrence had a lot in common with schoolyard bullying, as well. But the way I expressed the rationale of fear-instillation above, it could cover either deterrence or–a favorite concept of many Clintonites about a decade ago– “strategic compellance”, whichever you want to do.
But here’s a question. If the US government seeks to affect the behavior of other actors in the international arena by instilling a degree of “fear” in them, then how is this actually any different from what terrorists do?
The aims of terrorists, after all, are not directed primarily towards the individuals whom they kill, maim, or torture. They are directed towards everyone else in that “targeted” political community. The intention of the terrorists is to affect the political behavior of surviving members and leaders of that targeted community in the direction the terrorists want, by instilling in them some ‘fear’ of what the terrorists would do to them if they don’t do that.
When Hamas sends a suicide/homicide bomber to blow up Israeli civilians, that action is not considered to be part of a VERY longterm strategy whereby, over time, every single Israeli will have been killed by a lengthy series of such bombings. Instead, the real political intention of this terrorist action is directed toward that 99.99% of Israelis who are NOT blown up by the bomb: to try to “compel” them towards a situation where they concur in pulling out the occupied territories (or perhaps, relocating out of Israel altogether).
In a sense, there, the actual people who are blown up by the bomb are sort of necessary–in Hamas’s view–casualties along the path of that broader campaign. I could easily believe that there are even many Hamas supporters who would be even happier still if Israel pulled out of the occupied territories without any Israelis getting killed along the way.
- [I note at this point (1) that I strongly disapprove of all of Hamas’s use of violence, and most particularly that portion of it that results in casualties among civilians, and (2) that I think they actually have the calculations about what effects their violence will have on political decisionmaking in Israel regarding the occupied territories quite dangerously wrong. But still, these two important caveats do not affect my broader argument here, I think.]
So what are we to say about this desire, exhibited by John Kerry but even more, it appears, by Les Gelb, that the U.S. should seek to be “feared” around the world?
That it is ethically quite wrong, yes. But also, it seems to me, that it is fundamentally wrongheaded and counter-productive.
If the leaders of the US, the nation that is indubitably the best armed and strongest (in many respects) in the world, think that it can only “get its way”– that is, “defend vital national interests”, bla-bla-bla–in the world through a naked projection of its ability to instil fear, then what on earth is the basis of our argument that other actors in the international arena who are far, far weaker than the US should not resort to the tactics of fear-instillation on their own behalfs, as well?
As I said, Kerry really needs to get himself some advisors who are better informed, and certainly more intellectually capable, than this tired old crew he has around him now.
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* In the online version of the article, they don’t have those very helpful little italicizations. Luckily, I have the dead-tree version in front of me, so I was able to add them in, as I found them there.
I believe that “just” crept into the speech as armor against the likely ‘soft on defense’ charge that the Republicans will use. I think “just” was a wise addition. After all the goal is to win the election and get these people out!
Apropos of nothing … what exactly is it that neo-conservatives “conserve”, anyway?
“respected and feared”?
Scandal after scandal, blunder after blunder, America is less and less respected nowadays. In Europe I think we mostly feel sorry for America nowadays (even though we’d like to help but are persuaded this is impossible).
But “feared” is quite generalized already. Even before the invasion of Iraq, there has been a consensus in Europe that Pr Bush is “more dangerous than Ben Laden”.
Jassa– did you think neo-‘con’ had to do with ‘conservatives’? I was thinking it had to do with massive ‘con’ tricks pulled on the whole of the intelligent world… Silly me.
They are, actually, extremely and dangerously radical. Not “conservative” at all.
Luke– yeah, I share the aim of getting our present, criminally inept and deceitful rulers out… But I don’t want us to end up with more of the same…
Unfortunately, we have to remember that Kerry really is a believer in the foreign policy legacy of the earlier JFK. And while that is a far better thing than the current crew, it was also the group that gave us the Bay of Pigs (they didn’t plan it, but they carried it out, enthusiastically), plots to assassinate Castro, our current policy toward Cuba, and, best of all, Vietnam.
Thus, unless Kerry changes his views dramatically, we can expect a continuation of belief that U.S. military presence throughout the world is a good thing, and that the U.S. is justified in using force and dirty tactics to manipulate less powerful countries for their own good.
We can hope (for ourselves and for others) that a Kerry foreign policy will at least be one of a sane and well-managed imperialism, rather than the current nutty and incompetent version.
I think the great danger, however, is that Kerry will not be have the vision and courage to actually extricate us from Iraq, given the disaster that is likely to prevail by January, 2005. He may become a variation on Lyndon Johnson, escalating his predecessor’s war.
In any case, a Clintonian foreign policy is not the worst style we can expect from Kerry — it is the best. The Clinton crowd did not have much of the crusader mentality, in spite of its other deficiencies. Kerry could bring a more messianic style along. Apart from immorality, manipulating third-world countries has become more dangerous, as well as more difficult than it was during the cold war.
I think we’re mis-applying the term “feared” here. Kerry’s speach referred to fear in the same way we speak of a “fear of God”. The idea is that you are allowed to to live your life as you see fit, but there is a boundary of acceptable behvior, which if you cross, will be met with retribution. This was also the idea behind strategic deterrence. Countries were allowed to erect trade barriers we didn’t like, were allowed to socialize medical care, as long as we were still confident that the country was decididely on our side against the Soviets. (The execution of this doctrine was admittedly quite imperfect). This is not the fear that a bully creates when he asks you for your lunch money, but rather (to continue the schoolyard cliches) the fear created by the popular cliches at school, when they could threaten social destruction if they snubbed you.
Neither system is ideal, and in a perfect world we wouldn’t need either one, but if I had to choose between dealing with high-school cliches or grade school bullies, I’ll go for the cliches every time.
I guess my point is that John Kerry’s idea of instilling “fear” isn’t necesarily the same one as Bush’s.
A very good post at Billmon.org a must read.
I think that by playing it safe, e.g. the just example above, Kerry is missing a big opportunity to garner a mandate for change. Odds are very good that Bush will lose the election — Bush is a proven loser and that’s what losers do. Kerry should learn from the Spanish election. They guy who one had a principled agenda and seems to be able to carry it out now that he’s won. All Kerry will be left with is a mandate to be like Bush only not quite so incompentent.
The BBC report on Kerry
A very good post at Billmon.org a must read.
Seconded. Here it is.
I particulatly appreciated his expression “Success is Not an Option”. That has been my opinion of this since before the invasion. Success is not an option – at least not under current (and probably any) American leadership.