Iran’s ongoing internal “chess match,” the intense controversy over Iran’s presidential elections and the aftermath, is not only “not over,” it’s getting profoundly interesting. The charges & counter-charges continue to fly, with both sides dredging up extraordinary heavyweights, figuratively and literally, to their cause. A few mind-boggling examples:
Those notables who boycotted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-inauguration included no less than Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the very Ayatollah who led the 1979 revolution. Khomeini was otherwise occupied visiting one Alireza Beheshti, son of a famous clerical martyr from the early years of the revolution. Beheshti had just been released from imprisonment — for being a close aide to Mir Hossen Musavi, the still resisting leader of the green wave.
From another direction, Mohammad Javad Larijani is the newest prominent voice blasting Musavi and Khomeini for “treason,” for betraying the revolution (etc., etc.) Curious. I’ve long followed Javad Larijani’s work. When not being a genuine “theoretical physicist,” he’s been a noted “facilitator” behind various efforts to improve ties to the US. He’s also a member of the extraordinary brothers Larijani (e.g. Ali, current Parliamentary speaker and Sadegh, the new Judiciary Chief).
Topping that comes a pointed question for Larijani from Mohammad Ali Ansari, a keeper of the flame (if you will) for Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini as the director of Khomeini’s Publications. While defending the house of Khomeini, Ansari tosses his own rhetorical doozy:
“how can we criticize a ban on holocaust investigations calling it an undemocratic act, and then adamantly deny a simple demand for a probe into a recent election in Iran?”
What a question.
PS: Bonus prediction:
Never mind the foregoing, or perhaps indeed because of it, watch for an internal “grand bargain” — orchestrated by Rafsanjani & Rezaei, then “up” via Khamenei, a “national unity” plan. Stay tuned.
Right, what a question, because the real question is why Iran’s election is on such a hot seat, while dubious elections (for various reasons) in Aghanistan, Lebanon, Mexico, the US, etc., etc., are ignored or framed entirely differently. With utter hypocrisy, flaming hypocrisy, an issue that is important in itself is flogged in one situation, ignored or reframed in another. Come on, this isn’t hard to figure. Election questions in Iran have been played up in order to facilitate the road to either coup or war, to demonize the government in Iran. Did Ahmadinejad cheat? Probably. Is Mousavi a stooge? Probably. Do the real issues at stake have anything to do with the election. No. No, this is about oil, about global military alliances, about Greater Israel, about the valuation of the dollar as the only currency for oil – about many things, but not about the will of the people (which neither those who speak up for Ahmadinejad nor those who champion the manipulated Color Coup by Mousavi seem to give a damn about – indications are that Ahmadinejad probably cheated but probably also won – but who cares about what folks that don’t twitter think – if a nation rises up against a coup, but the people are poor and don’t twitter, does that People’s Movement exist?…What if they don’t have a designer color and gorgeous spokesmodels?…). Consider this: once Mousavi and Rafsanjani coup their way to power, will they hesitate to put down opposition harshly, or to steal elections? Of course not. But will anyone care? Of course not.
Is the establishment in mortal danger? Doesn’t appear so. Has the reform movement been effectively marginalized? Maybe.
Judging by the WPO public opinion poll, there actually exists the possibility of a “silent majority” in Iran, similar to the phenomenon by the same name experienced in America during the many demonstrations that took place during the late 1960’s, early ’70s. There were brutal police crackdowns, massive arrests and a few shootings by security forces during that period of American history, too. Like me, I’m sure you remember those tumultuous days, right Scott? And the US President that coined the term “silent majority” was vindicated in being reelected by a landslide. The WPO poll suggests similar conditions prevalent in Iran today. We can’t know for sure, but it’s the only hard data we have.
The Supreme Leader recently picked “hard as nails” Brig. Gen. Saqdi as Basij Commandant, so that tells you where the Iranian establishment is going with all of this. Same can be said of the recent IRGC telecom deal. The establishment doesn’t seem to have missed a step during the post-election political situation.
Scott, did you know the “Neither Gaza, nor Lebanon, I give my life to Iran” chant during the Quds Day rally actually originated from Washington DC over VOA satellite TV? Sort of confirms what the Iranian establishment has been saying all along about foreign manipulation and the post-election situation.
More fascinating, perhaps, is the possible direction the ongoing P5+1 nuclear talks are going. Maybe Ahmadinejad’s tough stand is actually paying off? Time will tell
Thanks for chiming in Mark. Even as I recognize the possibility of your point regarding broader Iranian opinion, I’ve long been a critic of the reliability & validity of those WPO polls of Iran — and presume you saw the outlines of that debate via Gulf 2000. (I remember too how some of our friends on the left cited a terribly flawed WPO poll from a month before the elections as evidence suggesting A/N might really have won outright….)
I’m focused on a presentation for the UCal Irvine Conference on the Alborz School (on Baskerville’s legacy) for Saturday…. so I’ll reply further in posts a bit later.
For starters, we could have “fun” deconstructing what is meant by Iranian “establishment.” That same “e” has also begun loosening up with key releases….
Agree with you too re. the nuclear issues being even of greater interest….. I feel like one of two people (the other being R. K. Ramazani) who weren’t surprised by the positive developments from last week…..
epppie say “indications are that Ahmadinejad probably cheated”. Do you know that if you can prove that the elctions in Iran was rigged there are lucrative prizes that can be won. So epppie if you do not want the prize send me the details which makes you so sure that the elections were rigged.