President Obama, Jan 20 2009:
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We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan.
This peace-forging, in a poor land where the US brought war over seven years ago, is social engineering at the point of a spear, and it won’t work.
According to Masood Aziz, a former diplomat:
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[Social engineering on a grand scale is] “a now thoroughly discredited approach to development in the Third World. The idea that after spending over $2.5 trillion on aid and social engineering since World War II, the West can create a “wonderful culture” in the Third World is delusional and suggests ignorance of the fact that foreign intervention has a dismal record of success.
…culture is essential to development and . . . it needs to be protected in its own land and nurtured when in danger–not imposed from the outside. It is now well-recognized that development efforts only work if they are inclusive of human security, which itself embodies cultural and social norms. This “human development” approach–as elucidated by the Noble laureate Amartya Sen–has its focus on expanding human liberty and freedom and respect for the local population in defining their own needs and futures. In this sense, development is a basic human right based on a nation’s deep cultural and social character. When disturbed either by conflict, or by the imported idealism Marlowe seems to suggest, these rights are violated and disaster ensues
Not understanding what Afghans want–security, education for their children, prosperity and the preservation of dignity–and instead advocating for “greatness” to come from the outside, has grave consequences for both Afghans and the community of nations engaged in this fight..
President Obama said he’ll work with others:
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To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect.
But when it comes to Afghanistan, mutuality and respect fly out the window in deference to ill-conceived American interests. Senator Obama, July 14, 2008, announcing his support for a “new strategy” in Afghanistan:
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Ending the war [in Iraq] is essential to meeting our broader strategic goals, starting in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the Taliban is resurgent and Al Qaeda has a safe haven. Iraq is not the central front in the war on terrorism, and it never has been. As Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently pointed out, we won’t have sufficient resources to finish the job in Afghanistan until we reduce our commitment to Iraq.
As president, I would pursue a new strategy, and begin by providing at least two additional combat brigades to support our effort in Afghanistan. We need more troops, more helicopters, better intelligence-gathering and more nonmilitary assistance to accomplish the mission there.
The president of Afghanistan, should anyone care, has a different strategy which he re-iterated on the same day that President Obama was talking about forging peace with war.
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Afghan President Hamid Karzai said on Tuesday the killing of civilians by foreign troops was a main source of instability in Afghanistan, and urged the West to review its strategy in fighting the Taliban and delivering aid.
“This persecutes us,” Karzai said of the killings. “Our international friends should know that it is a physical and mental obsession,” he told the annual opening of parliament.
Nearly 2,000 civilians were killed in fighting in Afghanistan last year, security experts say. Overall, more than 5,000 people were killed in 2008 in the deadliest year of fighting since the U.S.-led invasion.
NATO and the U.S. military which have some 70,000 troops in Afghanistan must “review the military and security strategy” by coordinating operations with the Afghan government in order to cut the number of civilian casualties, Karzai said.
The speaker of the upper house of parliament, Sibghatullah Mojadidi, warned of further unrest if civilian casualties were not stopped.
“We are fed up … this is really an important issue and I fear that, God forbid, the Afghan nation will rise up. I have told my American brothers and friends to exercise caution and if the nation does rise, the situation will be worse than Iraq,” he told parliament.
Karzai called on Taliban-led insurgents to give up resistance against his government and foreign troops, and vowed to protect “the honour and property” of those who did so.
Another development is that Afghanistan [learning from Iraq?] is seeking more control of foreign troops in its country.
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The government here has sent NATO headquarters a draft agreement that would give Afghanistan more control over future NATO deployments in the country — including the positioning of some U.S. troops, officials said.
The draft technical agreement would establish rules of conduct for NATO-led troops and require that additional NATO troops and their locations be approved by the Afghan government.
The agreement also would prohibit NATO troops from searching Afghan homes.
Forging peace with an expanded war in Afghanistan without understanding what Afghans want — is anyone buying this?
Don
re “the network of people who don’t really like us much”
I trust you picked up on Stratfor reporting an outbreak of Plague in an al Qaida camp in North East Algeria.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090121_algeria_al_qaeda_and_plague
It will ruin the tourist trade for sure.
Of course Camus wrote a book about it so it would seem to be a naturally ocurring phenomenon in that part of the world.
Frank,
How’s Irish tourism after that discovery of massive amounts of dioxin in Irish pork in December? As long as it doesn’t affect the Guinness (or does it).
دموع على طريـق الدماء :
تفاصيل الجريمة التي ارتكبها الجيش الامريكي بحق ثلاث عراقيين من موظفي وزارة التجارة يعملون حراس في مخازن الوزارة في منطقة العطيفية ببغداد
قصة حقيقية حدثت بتاريخ 17/12/2008 في العطيفية – بغداد
To Helena,
Add this to the list of US atrocities against Iraqi civilians check what crimes and killing machine your military doing inside Iraq.
This not reported by WP this from the mouth of Iraqis most of you don’t like to listen to them but the reality of the ground and every day life of Iraqi its full of atrocities for the last 6 years due to you country occupation of Iraq.
Its not GWB or Obama what they done or what he will do, its your “Highly Trained Disciplined” Heroes Helena, those commanders on the ground who are publicly when they specks on TV here and there two word are tied to this speeches all the time those words M* F*…. but did they know who are those M* F*……
To Scott H.
These guys your military heroes doing as your surprised of Israelis military doing in Gaza these sort of crimes for that past 6 years in Iraq done in name of freedom & democracy or you can choose Regime change.
Salah,
Please, my friend, it is not Helena (or Helena’s military) or Scott nor even the soldiers in Iraq who are responsible for these atrocities against the Iraqi people, it is the US government. Nearly every country has governments that the people don’t like, including in Iraq, so you know what I mean.
The people you mention, Helena and Scott, are just two of the people in the US who are trying to do something about this terrible situation. (Helena is a Quaker — people who don’t like war anywhere.) We devote a lot of time and resources to try to help the victims that you talk about. What more can we do?
Please continue to post your opposition to these crimes, but please also recognize who is responsible, and it is NOT Helena and Scott.
Don
Pigs and Guinness are rather a stereotype.
Sadly tastes have changed. What would Dublin be like without the smell of yeast from St James Gate?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/4294884/Diageo-reviewing-plan-for-Guinness-brewery-in-Ireland.html
But back to Afghanistan, did you see Karzai has asked the Russians for aid, after Joe Biden pissed him off?
The commentary goes along the lines that Biden accused Karzai of running a corrupt Narco-kleptocracy. The commentators infer that Karzai is now a candidate for regime change.
Frank,
I met a Guinness line-cleaning guy on a sidewalk on my last visit and thanked him, because I enjoy my Guinness, and he said: “We need more like you.” And then you said a pub closes every day, and now this — it’s sad.
I did hear about Russia moving back into Afghanistan and I thought it was a joke — but now I see that it’s not. Bottom line, it’s 3,372 kilometers Moscow-Kabul and 11,152 kilometers Washington-Kabul. And now with Moscow controlling the possible new supply line — it’s getting interesting.
Didn’t hear the Biden thing, but he’s an airhead, so it’s likely. He made Obama promise that he (Biden) would be the last person in the room before a decision is made. Hah!
Don
This gentleman writes often for this source and regularly has useful insights.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KA21Df01.html
Frank,
People like Karzai just don’t get it. When the US moves in with its military the US is in charge. The Afghan president probably thought Bush was serious:
WASHINGTON, March 1, 2006 – The democratic process taking hold in Afghanistan is an inspiration to the cause of freedom, President Bush said in the country’s capital, Kabul, today. “I hope the people of Afghanistan understand that as democracy takes hold, you’re inspiring others,” Bush said while visiting Afghanistan for the first time. “And that inspiration will cause others to demand their freedom.”
Now Biden has delivered the message, and Karzai better remember The Godfather and hope that he doesn’t wake to find himself sleeping next to the severed head of his favorite prized horse.
Apologies for above broken link.
This is the link to one of recent crimes by US military in Iraq (Arabic Text)
Now Biden has delivered the message, and Karzai better remember The Godfather and hope that he doesn’t wake to find himself sleeping next to the severed head of his favorite prized horse.
Yeah, that happened twice during the negotiations with Iraq over the SOFA/Withdrawal Agreement – Condy Rice’s visit to Baghdad in July and J. Negroponte’s in November. So what happened in the end? The US signed the agreement that Iraq wanted, and Washington now wants to skip over, apparently.
Do you see what I mean, Don, when I say there is quite a large gap between what Washington wants, and what it is able to enforce?
Don
Bhadrakumar suggested that getting India to take on the war in Afghansiatan is American policy about four or five months ago.
This from Stratfor today
So far, India has not ventured beyond its $86 million reconstruction commitment to Afghanistan, but has been throwing around the rather contentious idea of sending troops to the country to help with fighting the insurgency.
This would be a gigantic step for India to take, and one that would make the Pakistanis jump through the roof. India is extremely wary of deploying forces beyond its border. (It learned the pains of counterinsurgency the hard way when it got pulled into a bloody war of attrition with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the late 1980s.) New Delhi prefers to keep to itself in most foreign policy matters, particularly when it comes to fighting other nations’ wars. But sources in Indian defense circles say there are serious discussions going on among the political and military leadership over the Afghan option. Even Indian army chief Gen. Deepak Kapoor publicly raised the possibility Jan. 14 when he said in a conference, “Changing our strategic policy towards Kabul in terms of raising military stakes is one of the factors that is to be determined politically.”
Who did you say organised the shooting in Mumbai again?
Don
Bhadrakumar suggested that getting India to take on the war in Afghansiatan is American policy about four or five months ago.
This from Stratfor today
So far, India has not ventured beyond its $86 million reconstruction commitment to Afghanistan, but has been throwing around the rather contentious idea of sending troops to the country to help with fighting the insurgency.
This would be a gigantic step for India to take, and one that would make the Pakistanis jump through the roof. India is extremely wary of deploying forces beyond its border. (It learned the pains of counterinsurgency the hard way when it got pulled into a bloody war of attrition with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the late 1980s.) New Delhi prefers to keep to itself in most foreign policy matters, particularly when it comes to fighting other nations’ wars. But sources in Indian defense circles say there are serious discussions going on among the political and military leadership over the Afghan option. Even Indian army chief Gen. Deepak Kapoor publicly raised the possibility Jan. 14 when he said in a conference, “Changing our strategic policy towards Kabul in terms of raising military stakes is one of the factors that is to be determined politically.”
We wimpy Eureans don’t want our children running around the mountains in South Asia so Obama can kiss his NATO reinforcements goodbye.
Who did you say organised the shooting in Mumbai again?
Alex,
I don’t think you give the US and Iraq politicians enough credit. Don’t you think it’s possible that they signed an agreement (not a treaty, remember — Bush&Obama kept it out of the Senate), each for their own reasons, an agreement that they both knew was just for PR purposes, an agreement that they both knew would be subverted (or revised) and that wasn’t worth the paper it was written on? Also remember, in Iraq just as in Afghanistan, the US military rules. Think the Godfather times a thousand. You don’t f*** with them, believe me.
Frank,
You mean The Company might have been in Mumbai, just like the US Marines were in Islamabad before that hotel explosion? Come on Frank, we do have rules, you know. Ha. You’ll be claiming that 9/11 was an Israeli operation next. Double ha.
Alex,
This just in: Obama– “I asked the military leadership to engage in additional planning necessary to execute a responsible military drawdown from Iraq,” Obama said in a statement one day after being sworn in as commander-in-chief.
No more ending the war, no more military withdrawal, no more ordering the military to get out of Iraq. It’s now “ask[ing] the military leadership to engage in additional planning necessary to execute a responsible military drawdown from Iraq.” But we knew that was coming, didn’t we. (‘Drawdown’ is not in the DOD Dictionary.)
an agreement that they both knew would be subverted (or revised) and that wasn’t worth the paper it was written on?
Then why was there such a big fight? Why the two godfather visits, if it was just for show?
I don’t think the Iraqis were doing it just for show, either. Though I agree the Iraqi position is more complicated than it would seem from the negotiations. But it’s not like what is being said in the US. I don’t think Maliki is looking for US protection. Being protected by the US is not a way to stay in power.
The US, neither, they were perfectly serious until November, until they finally figured out that the Iraqis were not going to give way (They’d been living in dreamland until that point). I agree with you that they may at that point have said, “Oh we’ll just sign, just to get through the Jan 1st problem, and then we’ll figure out a way to get round the problem later.”
“Getting round the problem later” depends of course on the situation at that later date. Typical of international agreements, they remain in force if they suit the situation, and they’re abrogated if they don’t.
It may be of course that Obama will be able to turn the US economy around in three years, and win the war in Afghanistan, in the same time.
Otherwise I would have thought that the US presence in Iraq will be reduced to what the Iraqis are willing to accept. There’s no great chance of that being much more than a figleaf, even if Maliki is booted out and replaced by another.
However, I have long thought that they will probably reach some sort of agreement for a figleaf. After all, the Iranians will probably speak warmly of that possibility with Maliki, the next time he visits Tehran. Provides Tehran with permanent hostages in case of the possibility of a US or Israeli attack on Iran.
Alex,
Big fight on the SOFA? There was no fight in the US because it was purely an executive deal by the president. You say “US” but it wasn’t US, it was Bush giving orders to Rice & Gates. Bush was not US.
On the Iraqi side it was a much more open process, with Iraqi politicians and Iran involved. Of course Iraqis, and many Iraqi politicians, want the US completely out of Iraq. No question. So they had to be bought. That took time. Iran is probably more complicated. They want the US out but on the other hand they can hold the US forces hostage. Bottom line: US military rules.
Beyond that you know my position. Think Korea.
Big fight on the SOFA?
Yes, having to send Godfather enforcers twice to Baghdad, counts as a fight.
Look, Don, in reply to my comments all you ever do is repeat the last thing Obama said. As we are basically on the same side, I don’t mind. But you never offer any evaluation of whether what Obama says is capable of happening. I’ve offered a good many reasons why I think Obama is going to have to tone down what he wants in Iraq. Can you explain to me how it is that Obama is going to be able to force the Iraqis to accept what they quite evidently don’t want, and yet make the economies of troops which are going to be necessary, and which can only work in peacetime conditions? I am highly sceptical.
And please include in your evaluation, the political situation in Iraq, as that is the vital factor for Obama.
Alex,
I keep quoting Obama, as he continually backs off his Iraq positions, because he is the new decider. These matters are not debated in the congress any more, they are a product of executive privilege in the new autocratic America, and therefore the decider’s utterances are important.
I’m not sure I understand what you’re asking me for, but here goes. The US will slowly reduce the number of ground combat units in Iraq if the situation allows, which of course the US can manipulate as it did in Samarra in 2006. While doing this it will keep a strangle-hold on the new Iraqi military by making it dependent on US intelligence, logistics and air support. The US will maintain its large bases (and its huge embassy) in Iraq, both for the fore-mentioned effort and for US force projection in the ME.
The SOFA, its strategic framework part, is a useless scrap of paper which will soon be largely forgotten except, importantly, as a cover for the US staying in Iraq. The Iraqis want the US out, but just as in the US what the people want is nearly irrelevant. The politicians can be either threatened or bought, again just as in this country. Iran is the wild card.
Of course none of us can predict the future, and there are many unknowns including the economic situation and actions against Iran, but based on the current situation that’s the way I see it.
Don
Chronicle of a Dumping foretold
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/obama-ready-to-cut-karzai-adrift-1513407.html
Don
I am really impressed by this total FUBAR
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KA23Df01.html
Karzai is being supported by the Indians and the Europeans don’t want to get involved. Big split in the NATO mission?
And the Chinese and Russians getting dragged in too.
Note the echo of your position on the Military Industrial boondoggle.
Karzai’s calculus
All things taken into account, therefore, Karzai has made some smart calculations. First, he knows he is on the right side of Afghan public opinion, which could, in turn, only brighten his prospects at the presidential elections, which he intends to contest. Second, he is leading a highly emotive issue over the Afghan nation’s perceived honor and traditions which will resonate in the Pashtun heartlands and help create a nationalistic fervor that he could tap into.
Third, Karzai will be seizing the political initiative from his Afghan detractors by co-opting their agenda as his own. Fourth, Karzai rightly senses that the US’s “surge” strategy is bound to intensify the war and will run up huge losses in human lives. The prudent course for him politically is not to identify with the strategy.
Finally, Karzai is, in a manner of speaking, calling for Obama’s attention. Like any close observers of the bureaucratic alignments in Washington, Karzai would be aware that the Pentagon is in many ways attempting to shepherd Obama into its own pre-determined war agenda in Afghanistan.
……
Being a consummate politician who has kept a close tab on the Washington scene over the past seven years, Karzai is well aware of the vested interests that have been spawned in Washington. After all, there is enormous money in the war. And there is a real danger that Obama may not easily get to know the stench in the trenches of the “war on terror” in Afghanistan unless someone cries out loudly and draws his attention to it.
Frank,
Afghanistan is so similar to Vietnam, not in all ways of course, but I vividly recall the revolving-door presidency changes in Vietnam after the first US-installed President Ngo Dinh Diem was murdered by US factions. ten more president after that (some serving multiple terms) with the longest term, 1965-75, being served by Nguyen van Thieu, who in ’75 fled to Taiwan, later he settled in Surrey, Great Britain. Finally he took up residence in Foxborough, Massachusetts, in the United States, near where I was raised, where he died in 2001.
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
Alex, I gotta agree with Don on this one. Obama’s plan has been from the beginning to reconfigure and rebrand the occupation, and continue it indefinitely. That was clear from early on in the primary campaign, and Hillary’s plan was virtually identical. In other words, he will carry out the end game portion of the Bush agenda in Iraq.
I do disagree with Don slightly in regard to the relevance of what the Iraqis want. It is not nearly irrelevant, it is less than irrelevant.
And I wish he would stop perpetuating the propaganda by calling the imperial command and control center in Baghdad an embassy. I have been in embassies. I was a guest at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad a few times, and for a year or two we had as our next door neighbors an American employee of the embassy and his family (their son was born in the same private Iraqi maternity hospital my family used). That was an embassy. The abomination that is there now is no embassy.
Alex, I gotta agree with Don on this one. Obama’s plan has been from the beginning to reconfigure and rebrand the occupation, and continue it indefinitely. That was clear from early on in the primary campaign, and Hillary’s plan was virtually identical. In other words, he will carry out the end game portion of the Bush agenda in Iraq.
I do disagree with Don slightly in regard to the relevance of what the Iraqis want. It is not nearly irrelevant, it is less than irrelevant.
And I wish he would stop perpetuating the propaganda by calling the imperial command and control center in Baghdad an embassy. I have been in embassies. I was a guest at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad a few times, and for a year or two we had as our next door neighbors an American employee of the embassy and his family (their son was born in the same private Iraqi maternity hospital my family used). That was an embassy. The abomination that is there now is no embassy.
Alex, I gotta agree with Don on this one. Obama’s plan has been from the beginning to reconfigure and rebrand the occupation, and continue it indefinitely. That was clear from early on in the primary campaign, and Hillary’s plan was virtually identical. In other words, he will carry out the end game portion of the Bush agenda in Iraq.
I do disagree with Don slightly in regard to the relevance of what the Iraqis want. It is not nearly irrelevant, it is less than irrelevant.
And I wish he would stop perpetuating the propaganda by calling the imperial command and control center in Baghdad an embassy. I have been in embassies. I was a guest at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad a few times, and for a year or two we had as our next door neighbors an American employee of the embassy and his family (their son was born in the same private Iraqi maternity hospital my family used). That was an embassy. The abomination that is there now is no embassy.