As the US and NATO lose control of surface roads in Afghanistan they are more and more dependent upon air transport and air cargo delivery.
According to USA Today:
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Afghanistan’s roads have grown more dangerous. The number of roadside bombs and suicide attacks has increased to 1,041 this year from 224 in 2005, according to the NATO command in Afghanistan. This year, more than 1,400 bombs, which the military calls improvised explosive devices, were discovered before they were detonated.
U.S. forces have sharply increased the number of airdrop supply missions in Afghanistan in the past three years, as roads have become more dangerous and allied troops have established remote outposts.
The number of airdrops has increased to 800 this year from 99 in 2005, according to Central Command’s air operations center. Planes dropped 15 million pounds of cargo this year, nearly double last year’s load of 8.2 million pounds.
Canadian forces have even resorted to leasing Russian helicopters:
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Canada’s battle group moved into southern Afghanistan in 2006 without any helicopters, unlike the British, U.S., and Dutch forces. The lack of air assets forced the Canadians to rely more heavily on road convoys, which the Canadian commanders described at the time as an advantage because it would give the troops more familiarity with the Afghan people and terrain. But regular traffic of military vehicles on Afghan roads has proven deadly for Canadian soldiers as the rising insurgency targets supply convoys.
Many Forward Operating Bases (FOB) are outposts in the Afghan back country that are normally reached only by weekly helicopter supply flights.
Air transport seems like the answer to loss of ground control. But is it? Soviet forces had a similar experience in 1978-1988. One of their downfalls was the supply of MANPADS by the CIA to Afghan partisan forces resulting in the downing of many Soviet aircraft.
MANPADS are “Man-portable air-defense systems” — think bazookas that can be aimed at airplanes and fire missiles which target hot engine exhaust pipes. They are particularly effective against low-flying, slow-flying targets that are big heat-emitters, like the helicopters that serve as the principal means of people and cargo transport in a land of rough terrain where the enemy owns most of the roads. MANPADS also work against faster and higher aircraft.
There have been no reports of the usage of MANPADS in Afghanistan against US and other NATO forces. But the potential is there, and the use of MANPADS would change everything, as it did for the Soviets. The movie “Charlie Wilson’s War” covered it quite well.
David Wood, a Maryland blogger, poses the following question:
- “Given the critical role of air power in this conflict, I wonder if there isn’t an Islamic Charlie Wilson out there somewhere, ready to climb out of the hot tub and dispatch some high-powered manpads (man-portable air defense weapons) to the insurgents?”
What’s available? A sampling:
* Stinger FM-92, US, the weapons furnished to the Afghans twenty years ago, is used in a dozen countries.
* Mistral, French, also in a dozen countries
* Grouse, SA-18, Russian (h/t Frank in Eire), Range 5200 meters, altitude (m) 10-3500, guidance passive IR homing, emplace/displace time 13 seconds , now manufactured in Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, China, Pakistan and possibly other countries. In 2003 a British national was intercepted attempting to bring a Grouse procured from a Russian dealer into the USA. He is said to have intended the missile to be used in an attack on Air Force One, the American presidential plane, or on a commercial US airliner, and is understood to have planned to buy 50 more of these weapons.
* HongYing-6, FN-6, China, recently provided to Sudan. These aren’t the shoulder fired SAMs of old that could be thrown off by some defensive flares. They are good. Real good. Enough to put into question the ability of any aircraft’s self-protection ability short of the incredibly expensive laser systems that blind the sensor of the missile. If you are flying under 10,000 ft. you are at risk. The FN-6 is equipped with an all-digital infrared seeker. It has a maximum range of 5 kilometers (just over 3 miles), maximum firing latitude of 4 kilometers (2.5 miles), and a response time of 10 seconds. The total weight of the system is 16 kilograms (35 pounds), its flight speed is 600 meters per second (1,342 miles per hour) and maximum maneuverability is 18G.
Would China supply missiles to Afghan partisans? They already have. From a 2002 news report:
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In a joint operation with Afghan police, peacekeepers seized a cache of 151 Chinese-made rockets, the same kind fired at the international security force over the weekend, a peacekeeping spokesman said Thursday.
In another sweep, also on Wednesday, police killed one man and arrested two others while seizing a large number of weapons, including two American-made Stinger antiaircraft missiles, the government’s Bakhtar news agency said.
And another from 2007:
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Is there a China connection with Iraq and Afghanistan? Yes, according to a departing senior Pentagon official, who says that the Chinese-origin armor-piercing bullets — of particular concern to U.S. and coalition troops – have showed up in the two countries.
Is there an Islamic Charlie Wilson?
Since Pakistan manufactures QianWei MANPADS under licence and ISI is backing the Taliban, isn’t it far more likely that there is a Pakistani “Charlie Wilson”?
Thanks, good info.
QW-1
The Anza MK-II is a portable shoulder-fired, IR homing air defence weapon system similar to the US Stinger missiles. The main differences from the earlier version are in its high speed (600 M/Sec), accuracy and sustained velocity, high maneuverability and all aspect engagement capability. It can be used to target both fixed and rotary targets and the missile can be fired by a soldier either on his feet or knees. It can be launched in automatic mode as well as in manual mode. The maximum altitude gained by Anza is 4000 meters, and it can carry 550 grams of warhead explosive. Its reaction time is less than 3.5 seconds, while transition time from movement to ready for operation is less than 10 seconds.
Don
The max altiude of 4000 metres for the QW-1 is an interesting point. This is the altitude above which you need to provide the guys in helicopters with oxygen which is not the normal case for troop carrying helicopters.
This could be bad news for the people on the aircraft crossing the Pakistan frontier from Afghanistan.
Ah time to disperse the factories that make them to some other locations before the hellfires come through the ceiling.
The MQ-1 drone has an operating ceiling of 7500 metres so the MANPADS can’t get to them.
What is the ultimate goal of US in Afghanistan intervention ??
How does Us defines Taliban s/insurgents ?
How does US foreign policy separate Talibans and Pathans.
Are all previous Talibans equivalent of Insurgents.
Are Pukhtoons 60% of Afghanistan population ?
IS US foreign policy planning to engage Pukhtoons in a constructive way?
Do Pukhtoons really put Honor, religion family, then worldly possessions in that order? for survival.
Do Pukhtoons/Talibans will think, plan, and execute a revenge on enemy even a quarter century after the event.
Does one Hell fire Missile kill X number of ??bad guys and X+# innocent people create X+### revenge seekers?
Does each strike on locals cause a ripple, revenge reaction? which is XXX larger destruction psychologically, strategically.
US/Nato can never rule bodies unless capturing their brain is not in the strategy.
Has Al Qaida ideology already blended, merged and resurfaced now in the form of freedom fighting, plan hard core criminals, and get the Americans, Europeans out of the country wave?
Who is supplying money/weapons, and logistics to anti American/NATO forces?
?Russians pay back to US….India pay back to Pakistan….Pakistan/India/Iran.
How long US can sustain adequate supplies at ?4-6X the current cost at alternate rout through all 4 possible ways.
Has recruitment for the fighter Talibans increased and easier as compared to last year.
How can a bad intentioned person exit SE Afghanistan, enter any other surrounding country, exit surrounding country and enter United states, get hold of weapons/biological/nuclear and cause damage…………logistics.
Comments please
What will be a satisfactory end result for US?
It’s not the end result that’s important, but the process.
Based on the evidence we have the US wants continued, increased disorder and instability in order to increase the need for US government control and to realize higher profits from large expenditures. Nothing personal against Pashtuns or others.
More deaths make the effort more important and more worth continuing because those that died cannot be allowed to have died in vain. Those well-connected people who gain huge profits are viewed as essential to the process and their gains are seen as evidence of their vital contributions.
The coming economic depression will accelerate these efforts by increasing instability and promoting the sort of expenditures that pulled the US out of the last depression as a result of WWII. There will be more contrived Pearl-Harbor type events such as 9/11, Samarra and the (probably false flag) explosions and fires in India
This is the new paradigm of eternal war. Nothing personal to Iraqis and Afghans — they just happened to be born in the wrong place. If they’d had any sense they would have been born rich Americans.
Pentagon news report:
WASHINGTON, Dec. 22, 2008 – Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has approved the deployment of an Army aviation brigade to Afghanistan this spring, a Defense Department official said today.
The deploying unit — the 82nd Combat Aviation Brigade from Fort Bragg, N.C. — will comprise about 2,800 soldiers and a fleet of rotary-wing aircraft,
“The MQ-1 drone has an operating ceiling of 7500 metres so the MANPADS can’t get to them.”
“The maximum altitude gained by Anza is 4000 meters”
Frank, Don, is Frank comparing like with like?
Such a rocket, launched from a height of three thousand five hundred metres, surely not an unusual ground altitude in Afghanistan, would rise to 7500 metres above sea level, which would be how the maximum operational altitude of a drone would be calculated.
So the drones are within range of the MANPADS, a lot of the time.
Question: Why is this weapon (MANPAD) not being used? It looks like it would change the tactical stuation utterly, and in favour of Afghanistan.
Is this just an unstable lacuna, or has the US managed to exclude these weapons somehow from the most notorious weapons bazaar in the world? If the latter, how did they do that?
In other words, is Milo Minderbinder, or grandson of Milo, still at work?
“The MQ-1 drone has an operating ceiling of 7500 metres so the MANPADS can’t get to them.”
“The maximum altitude gained by Anza is 4000 meters”
Frank, Don, is Frank comparing like with like?
Such a rocket, launched from a height of three thousand five hundred metres, surely not an unusual ground altitude in Afghanistan, would rise to 7500 metres above sea level, which would be how the maximum operational altitude of a drone would be calculated.
So the drones are within range of the MANPADS, a lot of the time.
Question: Why is this weapon (MANPAD) not being used? It looks like it would change the tactical stuation utterly, and in favour of Afghanistan.
Is this just an unstable lacuna, or has the US managed to exclude these weapons somehow from the most notorious weapons bazaar in the world? If the latter, how did they do that?
In other words, is Milo Minderbinder, or grandson of Milo, still at work?
An Islamic Charlie Wilson?
Well, I never met him personally or even learned his name, but when I was over there in 2001, I heard some stories.
From the late 1990s through to Sept. 11, the CIA had a operation going on in Afghanistan to buy up as many Stinger launchers as they could. The money they were paying was so good, something like $75,000 per launcher, they inspired the gunsmiths of Darra Adam Khel to start manufacturing counterfeit launchers.
After Sept. 11th, the Taliban government bought truckloads of the things and shipped them up through the Khyber Pass. But the Darra gunsmiths with their foot-powered lathes couldn’t duplicate the electronics in the heatseeking warheads. So the Taliban bought warheads on the Russian black market. By the time the ground invasion was launched in November 2001, they were set up to recreate Charlie Wilson’s Stinger Alley.
But it didn’t work. Modern-day American helicopters have built-in defenses against heatseeking missiles like the Stinger.
http://science.howstuffworks.com/apache-helicopter6.htm
[…]
The Apache is also designed to evade heat-seeking missiles by reducing its infrared signature (the heat energy it releases). The Black Hole infrared suppression system dissipates the heat of the engine exhaust by mixing it with air flowing around the helicopter. The cooled exhaust then passes through a special filter, which absorbs more heat. The Longbow also has an infrared jammer, which generates infrared energy of varying frequencies to confuse heat-seeking missiles.
[…]
Taliban soldiers have done better using plain old low-tech RPG-7s to shoot down American helicopters.
An Islamic Charlie Wilson?
Well, I never met him personally or even learned his name, but when I was over there in 2001, I heard some stories.
From the late 1990s through to Sept. 11, the CIA had a operation going on in Afghanistan to buy up as many Stinger launchers as they could. The money they were paying was so good, something like $75,000 per launcher, they inspired the gunsmiths of Darra Adam Khel to start manufacturing counterfeit launchers.
After Sept. 11th, the Taliban government bought truckloads of the things and shipped them up through the Khyber Pass. But the Darra gunsmiths with their foot-powered lathes couldn’t duplicate the electronics in the heatseeking warheads. So the Taliban bought warheads on the Russian black market. By the time the ground invasion was launched in November 2001, they were set up to recreate Charlie Wilson’s Stinger Alley.
But it didn’t work. Modern-day American helicopters have built-in defenses against heatseeking missiles like the Stinger.
http://science.howstuffworks.com/apache-helicopter6.htm
[…]
The Apache is also designed to evade heat-seeking missiles by reducing its infrared signature (the heat energy it releases). The Black Hole infrared suppression system dissipates the heat of the engine exhaust by mixing it with air flowing around the helicopter. The cooled exhaust then passes through a special filter, which absorbs more heat. The Longbow also has an infrared jammer, which generates infrared energy of varying frequencies to confuse heat-seeking missiles.
[…]
Taliban soldiers have done better using plain old low-tech RPG-7s to shoot down American helicopters.
An Islamic Charlie Wilson?
Well, I never met him personally or even learned his name, but when I was over there in 2001, I heard some stories.
From the late 1990s through to Sept. 11, the CIA had a operation going on in Afghanistan to buy up as many Stinger launchers as they could. The money they were paying was so good, something like $75,000 per launcher, they inspired the gunsmiths of Darra Adam Khel to start manufacturing counterfeit launchers.
After Sept. 11th, the Taliban government bought truckloads of the things and shipped them up through the Khyber Pass. But the Darra gunsmiths with their foot-powered lathes couldn’t duplicate the electronics in the heatseeking warheads. So the Taliban bought warheads on the Russian black market. By the time the ground invasion was launched in November 2001, they were set up to recreate Charlie Wilson’s Stinger Alley.
But it didn’t work. Modern-day American helicopters have built-in defenses against heatseeking missiles like the Stinger.
http://science.howstuffworks.com/apache-helicopter6.htm
[…]
The Apache is also designed to evade heat-seeking missiles by reducing its infrared signature (the heat energy it releases). The Black Hole infrared suppression system dissipates the heat of the engine exhaust by mixing it with air flowing around the helicopter. The cooled exhaust then passes through a special filter, which absorbs more heat. The Longbow also has an infrared jammer, which generates infrared energy of varying frequencies to confuse heat-seeking missiles.
[…]
Taliban soldiers have done better using plain old low-tech RPG-7s to shoot down American helicopters.
Hi Ken,
I have heard that the balance between attack and defence is always swinging on way or another, so if that is true, then the MANPADS can’t have the upper hand all the time. But then, too, the counter-measures must sooner or later be countered.
Thanks for the great story about the $75,000 launcher buy-up.
Although much of this post and thread is devoted to technical characteristics, I took the meaning of Don’s question “Is there an Islamic Charlie Wilson?” to be: is there a foreign power out there who is ready to support the Afghan Mujahidin with modern weaponry? That could be informally, as with Charlie Wilson, or by the state, as with Chinese and Russian support for North Vietnam.
By the state, I don’t see it for the moment. Most surrounding states are sufficiently afraid of jihadis now, not to want to encourage them for fear of the effects on their own country. On the other hand, private support from wealthy Gulfis and others is quite possible, though with the same hesitation.
The jihadi phenomenon is modelled on the situation of early Islam, where the Abbasid professional armies invading Byzantium were accompanied by hordes of unpaid volunteers, up to 80,000 on one occasion, out to defend Islam. Even later, a major part of the defence of the frontier was carried out by volunteers. Financial support was provided by wealthy individuals as a charitable act. (For any Islamic experts who may be reading, it is the phenomenon of “ribat”.)
The reason that these ancient events are relevant to today is that I suspect that support for these attitudes crept in to the “hadith”, the statements of the prophet Muhammad, which are the second source for Islamic law after the Quran. Western scholars think that many of these hadiths came into existence at a later date, in order to support current attitudes. I am not an expert on hadith, so I couldn’t say. At any rate, the model was created: volunteer fighters supported by wealthy individuals.
That model corresponds quite closely to what we have today (of course, not a perfect correspondence. Suicide attacks are an invention of the Assassins in the 11th-12th centuries). You can expect financial support at any time from Muslims. To that degree, the situation is similar to that of Charlie Wilson.
As to modern weapons, which might be capable of downing US helicopters, it depends upon the motivations and contacts of the givers. At the moment, Obama has a good reputation with Muslims, and supply is improbable. Were that reputation to decline, and a feeling that Islam was under serious attack were to develop, the situation could change.