The longterm status of Georgia: Challenges ahead

Georgia’s US- and Israeli-built armed forces got pulverized by the Russians during last month’s short war over South Ossetia. The Bush administration has promised $1 billion to the Georgians in reconstruction aid. So far, administration spokespeople have been at pains to stress that this aid is for humanitarian relief and reconstruction, and no mention has yet been made of the idea of rebuilding Georgia’s military.
The Bush administration’s actions during the entire Georgia crisis until now have been marked by a degree of caution and risk-avoidance that, in the circumstances, is entirely appropriate. Remember the reports about how the 100 or so military trainers the US had in Georgia at the time of the war were immediately told to change into civvies, stash any weapons they had out of sight, and sit out the war hanging round hotel swimming pools?
So why did the Bushists behave like that? Three reasons. First, they had no spare forces– their own, or forces of ‘allied’ nations– to send in. Second, they didn’t want to get drawn into a direct mano-a-mano with another Big (and also nuclear-armed) Power. Third, remember that the Russians have agreed to help out NATO’s campaign in Afghanistan by allowing non-military supplies to be shipped to NATO’s forces there through Russia…. So Moscow might have large parts of western Europe over a barrel. But it has the US over a railhead.
For now, the war has died down… I’m assuming that Pres. Saakashvili is desperately eager to rebuild his armed forces. There would be a number of logistical problems regarding how the US (or its Israeli surrogate) might undertake any rearming of Georgia. Ships through the Black Sea? Airlifts? Overland through Turkey?
Those problems could be solved, I suppose. But it’s the political problems that are still limiting all foreign reconstruction aid to non-military items.
So far, the call to “re-arm Georgia!” has not become any kind of a big issue in the US election campaign. (Imagine how different things might be if we had a Democrat in the White House.) But the Georgia situation has not been anywhere near resolved yet, in any durable political way. If the present status quo remains in place, I suppose it is possible a sort of “Finlandization by default” may emerge there.
However, reaching a formal, negotiated agreement on Georgia’s status– one that’s agreed to by all relevant parties including Russia, and that also resolves the currently contested status of the two now-seceded regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia– is far preferable. Absent such an agreement, all of Georgia, including the two seceded regions, would be unable to do the kind of long-term economic planning and investment that made Finlandization into a palatable and workable deal for Finland itself. Absent that agreement, all of Georgia will remain mired in the kind of directionless limbo that seems to mark Kosovo to this day.
I think I asked this before. But where in the world is Ban Ki-Moon?

20 thoughts on “The longterm status of Georgia: Challenges ahead”

  1. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s salary was $300,000 including allowances, plus a residence overlooking the East River. He had a deputy SG ($287K), 17 assistant SG’s (at $160K) and 15 undersecretaries/department heads (at $176K).
    I imagine that Mr. Ban & his 30-odd friends are burdened with the same paltry wages. Who can expect them to actually do anything? They might as well be US senators, for all the good that they do.
    I think the whole thing is a giggle.(sorry)

  2. Helena
    Before getting into discussing Georgia in isolation, I suspect you need to sort out the framework within which it will exist.
    Here is a link to the recent statement of Russia’s foreign policy.
    http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=13024477&PageNum=1
    Just to make things interesting Armenia is a member of CSTO.
    Ban Ki Moon is busy dealing with Abu Musa and the Tumbs and keeping the head down until the US elections areover.

  3. Helena
    Before getting into discussing Georgia in isolation, I suspect you need to sort out the framework within which it will exist.
    Here is a link to the recent statement of Russia’s foreign policy.
    http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=13024477&PageNum=1
    Just to make things interesting Armenia is a member of CSTO.
    Ban Ki Moon is busy dealing with Abu Musa and the Tumbs and sensibly keeping the head down until the US elections are over.

  5. Startfor’s Naval situation map shows two Marine Expedionary Strike groups on the move.
    http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/u_s_naval_update_map_sept_3_2008
    Iwo Jima has passed through the Straits of Gibraltar heading East.
    Peleliu has left its station off the coast of Oman and is heading for the Suez Canal.
    This is unusual as if it were a simple relief Peleiu would not have moved whileIwo Jima is still off Spain.
    Life will get quite exciting if Marines land in Georgia.

  6. Medvedev: “The world must be multi-polar. Single polarity is unacceptable,”
    Sarkozy: “we cannot go back to the age of spheres of influence. Yalta is dead.”

  7. The Bush administration has announced a $1 billion aid package to Georgia, making the former Soviet republic one of the highest per capita recipients of U.S. economic assistance. With 4.6m Georgians it works out to $217 per Georgian.
    The next hot-spot, it appears, will be Ukraine where there might be action against the Russians (who have recently received passports) on the Crimea peninsula. Now Ukraine has ten times Georgia’s population (including Crimeans), so at the same per-capita rate Ukraine might earn ten billion dollars or so for smacking Russia! This could get expensive, especially if it catches on elsewhere.
    Of course Ukraine would have to actually have a government, which is a current problem.

  8. Yes, Georgia needs to put into the bigger context.
    1) Russia shattered Europe’s illusions that NATO could protect the BTC pipeline and secure future Central Asian energy imports. The US is desperately trying to prove that it is still relevant there. Cheney is in Georgia, huffing and puffing and threatening to blow the Russkies house down.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080818.wrreguly18/BNStory/International
    2) Now the real action has shifted to North Africa. Everyone is visiting Gaddafi these days, who is in the catbird seat (this photo says it all!) http://www.bbc.co.uk/go/homepage/i/int/news/world/1/-/news/1/hi/world/middle_east/7601519.stm)
    Gazprom offered to buy all of Libya’s gas. Berlusconi offered compensation for past Italian behavior. The United States, not to be made irrelevant, has sent Condoleeza today (what a waste!) She is the first Secretary of State to visit since 1953. That alone shows the level of anxiety in Washington.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7599199.stm
    Meanwhile, Europe has some decisions to make. Is it to cast its lot with an increasingly ineffective and disliked American government, with the increasingly prickly and relevant Russians, or finally decide to stand up for its own self interests, charting an independent course?

  9. And President Gul goes to Armenia. Doubtless the Russians will be mentioning this at the CSTO summit to the Armenian delegation.
    Is this the return of the Ottomans?
    Centrist Turkish media outlets have been generally supportive of Gul’s pending visit. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan — a close Turkish ally, as well as a bitter enemy of Armenia — has given its official blessing to the trip. On September 4, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said that Azerbaijani leaders “welcome this initiative positively,” the Turkish daily Hurriyet reported.
    A September 3 statement from Gul’s office noted that the Turkish president had accepted Sarkisian’s invitation to “create a new climate of friendship in the region” and to “lift the obstacles preventing the coming together of two peoples who share a common history.”
    The statement echoes sentiments expressed by Sargsyan, who in a July 8 Wall St. Journal commentary, entitled “We Are Ready to Talk to Turkey,” expressed a desire for “a new phase of dialogue with the government and people of Turkey, with the goal of normalizing relations and opening our common border.”
    Although officials in both countries seem eager to explore a rapprochement, there are many on both sides who remain suspicious. Ruben Safrastian, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Armenian National Academy of Sciences, is among the skeptics in Yerevan who do not believe the visit will live up to its hype. Safrastian argues that Turkey is not prepared to deviate dramatically from its current policy on Armenia. Gul’s last-minute decision to accept Sarkisian’s invitation was more likely dictated both by regional tensions linked to Russia’s war with Georgia, and by an upcoming debate in the US Congress about Ottoman Turkey’s 1915 slaughter of thousands of ethnic Armenians, Safrastian suggested.
    “There may be some small change that will result in some thaw between the two countries, however, Gul will try to use the visit to strengthen his positions in the region,” Safrastian said. “The Turks will use this visit to prove their goodwill. However, in reality, they will do everything to use it in their interest.”

  11. where is Ban-Ki-Moon?
    He is more concerned about the chaos of Ethics and Disclosure in his abode.
    http://www.innercitypress.com/ban1turin090208.html
    Ban Ki-moon, one third of the way through his five year term as Secretary General, is lamenting that nobody is following his leadership. In a speech to senior UN official in Turin on August 29, Ban lamented, “I tried to lead by example. Nobody followed.” And so he tried to make clear he is in charge: “When we work for the UN — when you work for me — please leave your ego at the door.”

  12. Your reference to Russian assistance in moving supplies into Afghanistan to support the NATO mission there is a particularly interesting point now that Pakistan has suspended the delivery of fuel to NATO along the highway from Peshawar to Kabul. The bungled U.S. attack on the Pakistani Taliban this week has just strengthened the Russian negotiating position. Amazing the way things are interconnected…

  14. The original report in ‘Dawn’ said that the suspension was going to be imposed. Not yet. And I suppose NATO will have run today to have the suspension lifted.

  15. I would be surprised if Turkey allowed either the Iwo Jima or the Peleliu through the Straits – they are both aircraft carriers and are too heavy.

  17. The point about the Montreux Convention is correct. The terms of the convention are now coming under attack due to their effectiveness and the perceived conflict with the Turkish role in NATO.
    Turkey’s policy has been criticized in the Turkish press, with one newspaper stating that the Foreign Ministry had miscalculated foreign warship tonnage (Cumhuriyet, August 31). In response, the Turkish Foreign Ministry released a statement the same day stating that the report was incorrect (Anadolu Ajansi, September 1).
    As the dust settles over the Russian-Georgian confrontation over South Ossetia, the question of the current relevancy of the Montreux Convention remains
    This is of particular importance due to the beginning of the establishment of a Caucasian Union which would include Russia in both Economic and Security partnership.
    http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/world/9676440.asp?scr=1
    We are probably seeing the disintegration of the anachronistic NATO alliance in front of our eyes.
    The attempted passage of the Marine Expeditionary Units may be the opening move in an attempt to browbeat the Turks into abandoning the Convetion and the Caucasian Union.

  18. Notice how Turkey is omitted from the list Mr Cheney suggested to the Italan Foreign Minister as he twisted his arm up between his shoulder blades.
    I do hope somebody realises that Armenia, a member of CSTO with a subtantial Russian population, and Azerbaijan are long standing enemies.
    Still, a new pipeline has gotta go where a pipeline has gotta go.
    Franco Frattini said that during talks he and Cheney expressed their “shared wish for intense collaboration between Europe and the United States.”
    “This Caucasus crisis cannot be solved unless there is intense collaboration … which we will have,” Frattini said after the 40-minute meeting on the sidelines of a conference on Lake Como.
    The two also discussed EU dependance on Russian oil and gas, a crucial factor in the 27-nation bloc’s dealing of the crisis following five days of fighting last month between Georgia and Russia.
    The EU buys 30 percent of the oil it imports from Russia, while about 40 percent of the EU’s imported natural gas also comes from Russia.
    The bloc will discuss ways to reduce its dependance at a meeting in October, and Frattini said Cheney suggested inviting Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan to the meeting. The foreign minister welcomed the suggestion and said he would relay it to France, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency.

  19. Strange! US has armed a country that attacked another country. US not criticised by EU or anyone, and is ready to arm the same country again.
    I recall when the western world went ballistic when Zimbabwe sought arms from China. Zimbabwe , which hasnt invaded any other country or used its weapons the way Georgia (or Israel) has!
    Note the very different treatment. You may not have, but i have.

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