When I wrote this post last night, I did not say anything as to whether I believed that Iranian or pro-Iranian agents were involved. That was by intention. I’m not at all in a position to know.
I have heard, however, from usually reliably sources, that some serious, reality-based people in the US administration believe this to be the case. At one level, for the whole of the narrative of that JWN post to hang together, that’s all that’s required. At another level, it is undoubtedly true that:
- (1) The assault on the PJCC in Karbala was an operation of great sophistication and complexity, and had some of the same m.o.’s as, for example, Lebanese Hizbullah ops in Lebanon. There is considerable learning and experience-pooling among all the anti-US, anti-Israel fighting forces across the region, including directly between some Iraqi organizations to Lebanese Hizbullah, and between L.H. and some actors inside Iran;
(2) The “response” of the US-“Iraqi” forces was quite pathetic– they can’t even tell us for sure how many large SUVs were involved in the original attack!
(3) This attack must have scared the bejeesus out of everyone trying to do operational planning for the US forces in Iraq… Where was, at a very minimum, their ground forces IFF or secure communications system?? The idea that a large, multi-SUV convoy of anti-US forces, with the people in it wearing the new US-style camo fatigues and speaking English, can be careening far and wide throughout the country must be pretty terrifying for them. Maybe there are ten more convoys like that one? Who knows?
(4) Also, did the attackers manage to take some communications or other sensitive US equipment with them as they fled? Quite likely…
(5) In sum, the US military planners now need to be worrying not just– as I mentioned in this January 22 post– about the very live possibility that some of the Iraqi forces with whom they intend to “coordinate” during the upcoming phase are giving real-time info to the insurgents/opposition forces, but also about the possibility/probability that much of the terrain of Iraq, including terrain across which their vital supply lines run, is completely out of their control, and they may now have no idea who’s careening around in it. (For which outcome, they could perhaps thank in large part their earlier encouragement of the proliferation ofall kinds of mercenary forces inside the country.)
Anyway, the above observations deal mainly with operational issues. With, of course, inevitable political consequences. In yesterday’s post I addressed the broader political-strategic dimensions of the affair. Regarding whether I think it possible that some Iranian government-backed formation undertook the attack on PJCC Karbala, I’d say Yes. If there was an Iranian hand in the affair, then it would most likely have beenundertaken as a response to the “arrests” of civilian Iranian diplomatic personnel in Arbil as well as, perhaps, a sort of “shot across the bows” of the US, as a warning to them not to heat things up too much for the pro-Iranian forces in Iraq…
But as I say, I’m in no position to put a probability figure on that scenario. If anyone with good access to real info, including from the presumably US investigation into the whole affair, would care to add something to our knowledge base here, that would be great.
Right now, if anyone accuses the Iranians of anything really, you have to be suspicious. There is such a need for a pretext for war in Washington, that it is very difficult to believe in such an incident that the Iranians were genuinely responsible.
I agree that this incident was technically speaking unusual, much more effective than usual. It reminds me of the Samarra bombing; that was also unique in technique.
If the Karbala incident is taken up as a casus belli, then you know it was the US behind it.
To say there was an Iranian hand in the Karbala incident leaves open a wide of range of possibilities, from direct planning and execution to remote logistical assistance. We’re all connected with at most 6 degrees of separation, so at this point I wouldn’t be surprised if the Iranians were behind every single Shiite attack in Iraq if one allows two or three degrees of separation.
It’s too early for Bush to use this as a casus belli. The USS Stennis is still sailing in the Pacific. Give it a month or so, when the US is ready for an attack, and then see how 2 degrees of separation is deemed good enough for a casus belli.
Helena, why are you not backing Dennis Kucinich for President?
Helena,
I’ll do the same as I did at Josh’s blog (Syria Comment) when the US embassy was the target of an operation. Then the immediate speculation went that the Syrian Intel or some other sophisticated actor with resources carried out the operation. I thought about it and decided that was wrong. Later disclosures were consistent with my speculation, and I could be just as randomly incorrect here.
First, all narratives from state perspectives create a self-similar state opfor. Its projection, and it minimizes the possibility that the opfors are organic, not the constructs of states.
Second, the operational group may be as small as the observed force, or three times that size, for unobserved pre-positioned forces, logistical support, communications and command. The operational group is larger than a squad and smaller than a company.
Third, the operational group’s inventory of physical assets was a small set of commodity vehicles, light infantry weapons, and costumes.
None of this points to the human, financial, or material assets that are unavailable to the 50+ groups that are operational and that do target US forces and their allies.
At one end of the possibilities, a group of a dozen organized a raid, having possibly conducted similar operations not against US targets, and with a budget of five figures acquired the costumes, arms, vehicles and additional labor and carried out a show-piece raid.
At the other, several groups pooled resources to the same end.
As for the disposition of prisoners, in an environment where economic motivation for capture is prevalent, non-economic disposal suggests to me political and/or counter-intelligence discipline.
And I’m usually wrong about everything.
Pat Lang says, “They have hundreds of thousands of people from the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and the Revolutionary Guard corps already in Iraq.”
As far as I know, the US doesn’t let us know where soldiers are stationed or patrolling (the Iraqi’s and Iranian know, of course), so I don’t know what military presence the US has in southern Iraq. Certainly, they can’t feel very comfortable there.
“It’s too early for Bush to use this as a casus belli. The USS Stennis is still sailing in the Pacific. Give it a month or so,”
I would have thought that there are ways of spinning this story out, so as to coincide with the arrival of the Stennis in the Gulf. The crucial point could be, for example, when “evidence” is discovered that the Iranians were responsible. That would take time for the investigation.
I have no doubt that the Iranians do help their friends in Iraq, as in Lebanon. It is a big jump, nevertheless, actually to attack US troops.
Still for the moment it is all speculation, and we will have to wait and see if accusations of Iranian intervention develop.
Personally I think that any of the competing parties in Iraq could have carried out the attack, including the US, the Sunnis, and the various Shi’a groups. I would tend to rule out the Sunnis, as penetrating Karbala would require exceptional courage.
I find the idea of Iran as the force behind Karbala to be just not believeable.
Presuming Iran was so stupid as to deliberatly inflame an already tense situation (is it?) it still has to find SUVs, steal license plates & uniforms & weaponry & then find enough well-trained, well-motivated English-speaking soldiers to carry out the job, and it has to do it in two weeks flat. That’s simply not believeable.
Nor is it believeable that any of the known militias had anything to do with it, and for all the same reasons. Anti-American forces in Iraq have a track record: Cheap & dirty. Slick & sophisticated doesn’t interest them.
It is at least worth considering that this was a “false flag” operation, with a twist. Consider that what looked like Americans at first glance, might really have been Americans.
The one telling detail, the one unmistakable fingerprint, is if the attacking forces used American combat techiques. American techniques are the only techniques that Americans know. In this regard, the reported use of stun grenades is a possible clue.
If we destroyed Falluja for four dead mercinaries, can we now attack Iran for five dead soldiers?
It is very easy to determine if Iran is behind it. Go grab another 10 Iranian turncoats in Iraq and see if there is a response. Cause and effect is tested empirically by repeating the cause until the correlation comes out. The positive side effect is that you would start taking the no-good Iranians out of the theater.
Again, it makes no sense for Iran to harm Americans in Iraq or in any way attempt to thwart the activities of the American military who, after all, serve Iran’s interests at practically no cost to Iran. As well, the Iranians know the Cheney/Bush cabal have painted themeselves into a bloody corner with the American people and as desperate fools will lash out at anyone else — especially Iran — that they can blame for their own stupidity and ineptitude. The Iranians have everything to gain from maintaining patience in the face of blatant provocations by the current American maladministration. Time favors the Iranians and so they will make the best use of forbearance, and delay.
On the other hand, several other regional meddlers have every incentive to see America at war with Iran. At least two of these regional meddlers, Israel and Saudi Arabia, have access to the highest levels of the American government and enjoy near carte blanche political cover for whatever they do to Americans in their own interests. For example, remember the alacrity with which the Cheney/Bush cabal spirited the Saudi Bin Laden relatives out of America immediately following the attacks of 9/11/2201 carried out by 15 Saudi Arabians, 3 Egyptians, and 1 Yemeni — no Iraqis or Afghans involved. Israel, of course, has sunk American warships and killed American sailors when it wished to. Again, no repercussions from their wholly-owned subsidiary, the American government. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia have more than enough money (much of it from America), supplies of American luxury vehicles, expertise in both Arabic and English, and — especially in the case of Israel — access to the highest levels of “U.S. military intelligence” (an oxymoronic concept that I really have difficulty trying to get my head around, so to speak); and so the exploit in question could very easily have Israel and/or Saudi Arabia to thank for its origin and accomplishment.
Nations do not have friends. They have interests. America has few of the former (certainly not Israel and Saudi Arabia) and apparently no grasp of the latter. Therefore, I’d say — strictly on the basis of a cui bono (“who benefits”) analysis — that Israel and/or Saudi Arabia stand to gain from an American attack on Iran; and given their increasingly strident public howling for America to do just that, I see no difficulty in suspecting the usual suspects here.
This is the way I break down the possible scenarios: 1- US covert op., 2- The Shi’ite, or 3- The Sunni. For the reasons stated above, the probability of this being a little Tonkin fake-out cannot be ruled out. But lets say it was not the US. It is no secret that Iran would love to see the US leave Iraq with a bloody nose. That trail of dripping blood would be the greatest boost to their prestige and power that Tehran could ever pray for. But to be happy with something and actually doing it is two very different things. And okaying your friends doing it and doing it yourself is another two.
In the many years that SCIRI and Dawa were stationed in Iran (do not forget those looong 20+ years)they had many barracks and training camps. They had a very close working relationship with Iran’s RGs; yet, as far as I know, they kept “separate”. Even, during the war of 1980-88, the SCIRI units participated in Iran’s operations against Iraq (after the tide had turned that is), but they never did “mixed units”. I am saying all this to conclude that even if Iran wished to strike at the “coalition forces” it would have no reason to do it using Iranians. There are tens of thousands of SCIRI and Dawa men who lived in Iran for approximately a quarter century. Many of them are not military, but there are enough to pull off 200 more Karbalas. The only reason Iran would directly do anything like this would be if it were itching to provoke the barrage of Tomahawks and Harpoons and AGM-86s to start sooner rather than later. The “shot over the bow” reasoning is not plausible to me; their consistent strategy over the past 4 years has been to let the US enjoy the gurgling music of the quicksand under its feet. And that quote Lang “They have hundreds of thousands of people from the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and the Revolutionary Guard corps already in Iraq” is so stupid it is not even worthy of a comment! Hundreds of thousands? Can the man count to ten!?
Davis, your wisdom regarding empirical causality testing is stunning! Test-tube techniques, most unfortunately, don’t apply to socio-political contexts. It would be great to redo another French or Bolshevik revolution and see how the cause and effect patterns work out!! Or how about a second Spanish Armada? Maybe they’d make the same mistakes again? And I think by turncoat you meant spy. The definition of a turncoat is one who traitorously switches allegiance.
I’d say — strictly on the basis of a cui bono (“who benefits”) analysis — that Israel and/or Saudi Arabia stand to gain from an American attack on Iran.
Wasn’t that the very same logic employed by those who put forward the theory – widely believed at the time in the Arab world – that it was the Mossad who was responsbile for 9/11?
The Karbala incident with English speaking blondes is too sophisticated to be Shiite militiamen. It occurred out of the Sunni zone. The confused American response indicates that it was too soon to be a Polish Border Incident. My feeling is that it was a joint Shiite Militia and Iranian “Special Forces” warning of what will occur as Americans are isolated into “Joint Operation Centers” spread through out Baghdad and if the USA is stupid enough attack Shiite militia or bomb Iran.
Have any Iranian operatives ever been known to attempt something like this before? You would think that the consequences of discovery from a botched job would be enough to deter any Iranian group, what with the US administration just waiting for an excuse to take the war to Iran.
And the information we have about the sophistication of the attack would seem to imply that it was quite risky. So, the operatives must have had a high degree of confidence that they could pull it off.
Seems to me that none of the parties currently fighting in Iraq have shown this level of professionalism and sophistication. At least, not that it’s been reported.
One important point: Iran is a non-issue, in terms of being a legitimate target for military action, for two reasons. Or rather, these two casus belli are false and unsupported by reality.
1) You covered the first false casus belli: that they are endangering and undermining the efforts of US troops in Iraq. The very limited evidence we have suggests that they are doing this in minimal ways. The limited evidence we have is some highly sophisticated IEDs supposedly made in Iran. This may be wrong of Iran but is in the overall context irrelevant, as IEDs are extremely easy to make and cheap to buy parts for, and obviously local Iraqi insurgents have taken up this task very well.
Also, it makes little sense to claim, as some officials in the US do, that Iran is aiding Sunni insurgents, because we know for a fact that Iran has aided militias such as Badr Corps and has close ties to the ruling (predominantly) Shia government. So administration officials are trying to feed us this hogwash that Iran is aiding the people who are fighting against those we know they are allied with? That they are actively undermining their own interests? They must really think we’re idiots, wheels to be greased to power the military-industrial complex.
(see http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16795765/site/newsweek/)
2) As far as the nuclear issue is concerned, it simply is not one at the moment, but is being manufactured into one both by Israeli and American leaders, who want to justify preemption, and by Ahmadinejad, who is using fiery rhetoric and making false promises to his constituents, all while the nuclear program is going nowhere. What I mean by this is that experts who really know the reality of Iranian nuclear development are agreed that it has barely even gotten off the ground and is still largely impeded by a lack of access to knowledge and materials.
For instance, Iran says it’s planning to install a new cascade of 3,000 centrifuges soon. But ” ‘The reality is that they have got to the stage where they can run a small experimental centrifuge cascade intermittently,’ said one Western source familiar with the Iranian programme.”
Let’s just put this in context. Iran would need at least 25kg of uranium generated from these cascades in order to have enough uranium for one nuclear bomb. As it is now, they are having trouble enriching more than a few grams.
Iran: the non-issue.
The Karbala meeting that was attacked was intended to plan security for Shia pilgrims. Many of those pilgrims will actually be Iranians. Would the Iranian government want to put those pilgrims at risk by interfering with the security plans of its own allies’ regime in Baghdad? The pilgrims are good for business – meaning the supporters of SCIRI. It is far more likely that it was a Sunni operation. I’ve heard from people like Patrick Cockburn that a new organization is operating a training camp outside of Baghdad of a more sophisticated nature than what had previously existed. In other words, someone is upgrading the Sunni groups. When Turki al-Faisal resigned, I said that this was the man who masterminded the foreign organization of the mujahedeen in Afghanistan, and if he disappeared, it would probably be to do the same thing for the Sunni insurgents in Iraq. The best way for the Saudis to deal with the threat of al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia is to come up with higher-quality competition.
Mike,
I agree with most of what you say. Re. the Newsweek piece, some observations:
1- What’s in common with Saban, Isikoff and Hosenball? Just a thought!
2- The article is packed with BS (like almost anything you find in US media). Some obvious falsehoods:
a- The dreaded al-Quds unit of the IRG is a unit like any other. It is a good target for fear-mongering because its name means Jerusalem, which appeals to those who like to reminds us daily of Israel’s “existential threats”. I have searched the unclassified sources, and have found nothing to suggest otherwise. If anyone has seen such a source, I’d love to see it.
b- Ahmadinejad wasn’t even a member of the IRG. He was a nobody in the Basseej (the people’s militia) which used to have some significance during the Iran-Iraq war, but now is halfway between a neighborhood militia and boy-scouts.
c- Ahmadinejad has no power over the IRG or any of its units. In Iran, the supreme commander of the military is the Fagheeh (Khamenei). He has not delegated anything to Ahmadinejad. The commander of the IRG, a guy called Yahya Raheem-Safavi is a very shrewd political operative, a balancer of power, and often says disparaging things about Ahmadinejad and his nutty rhetoric in the media. US media and the AEI/AIPAC/Saban folks of course don’t translate those, since they don’t fit the picture they wish to convey (you know, the little Hitler (Ahmadinejad) screeching his anti-Semitic garbage out of Munich (Tehran), soon to devour the neighboring states and …)
d- More than 50% of the Iran-Iraq border is in the mountainous areas of Kurdistan. This area has been traditionally out of the Tehran government’s control. They have been struggling to assert some power in that area and have not succeeded. If the Iranian government can control the passage of smugglers across this porous border, how is it that the largest military in the world with satellite technology, hundreds of drones in the area, thousands of sorties of surveillance flights per week, cannot do that?!
e- The famous “ratlines” are not the ones used by the pilgrims. They mostly are in the mountainous North. Iranian pilgrims have no reason to enter Iraq through the Sulaymaniah area, and cross the Sunni heartland to get to Karbala and Najaf (their destinations). They come through the southern borders of the Kut area that are by far safer and closer and cheaper. They are often old and ill, and could not survive a mule ride over 3000-4000 meter high mountainous paths for several days in the blistering cold. The ratlines have for years been used by smugglers of all sorts of things (arms, drugs, goods, people…) but have nothing to do with pilgrims.
There is more, but it is tiresome to even point them out.
Cheers.
David, you’re mainly pointing out historical realities and relations between Iran and Iraq. What you are not pointing out is the fact that most of Iran is younger people. Most desire some kind of dialogue with the West, and more liberty in general.
I’m just talking about this issue in terms of how it affects the ordinary people of the US and Iran. In general, don’t you think they have a lot in common?
If only we didn’t try to dictate the very terms on which the country could exist, and acted peacefully for, say, 6 months, within those 6 months I can guarantee you that the reformist candidiates would make a huge leap and we would be that much closer to peace.
Didn’t the reformist candidates, led by Mohammad Khatami, make huge leaps in the past…only to land on their Persian derrieres?
Re-reading Helena’s original post just now, I had two more thoughts.
First, is it possible that Karbala was the work of rogue mercenaries? That was chilling. And then,
Could Karbala be the work of the Israelis? Israeli elements are known to be in Iraq, we might wonder what they get up to.
I still do not think it could be Iran. They do not want to be the next Hiroshima.
it is undoubtedly true that:
was an operation of great sophistication and complexity, …it wearing the new US-style camo fatigues and speaking English,
This same as many incidents cost hundreds of Iraqi from doctor’s professors and military commanders and other highly respectable Iraqi people.
The last one was the Iraqi Maj. General his brother working Iraqi government and he was working as a consultant to Iraqi ministry of defence, this incident took place late last year when 4 cars same as Us and Iraqi forces using came to the house of that man and their neighbours tolled some reporters that the people came from the care speaking also “English” (you need to understand its very obvious for any Iraqi if these group speaks “ English” are Iraqi Iranian or US because the accent) so the neighbours went away, then after few mints they start firing on the house and the man was jumped over the top of his house firing back but after awhile he was shot down by the attackers.
So the question is who done this and how these guys get the gear and cars?
Now Helena and others changing their tune when its come to hurts the American forces but this on going saga for Iraqi four year many Iraqis killed and finished by same scenario no one even bother to say one word about it.
directly between some Iraqi organizations to Lebanese Hezbollah, and between L.H. and some actors inside Iran ;
So now Helena admitting that Hezbollah direct link in Iraq, just to say this reported many times Hezbollah direct link is obvious on the street of Iraq also there were some fighters arrested they speaks Arabic in Lebanon accent, just to remind Helena she reject my post in same vein of Hezbollah direct link and working in Iraq by saying Hezbollah have a good way of supporting people with social aid network and all of that. So she put my post down before and she changing her position now!
In the end of the day US playing many scenarios here, they brought Iran penetrations and influences into Iraq also they top up the tension to pursue the other Arabs (Gulf Countries) to support here also to push them for more relaying on US power and military supplies, weapons specially after oil prices sky rocketing and huge oil dollars revenue these gulf states got from their oil export and to gain strong hold in the region for long term, so US by making Iran looks very powerful that US have its problem with them, but they forgot that they open the doors for them and their supports in Iraq for four years, they turned blind eyes on all Iranian penetrations and works inside Iraq.
They love Iraqis they love Shi’ats who suffered from old regimes in Iraq history
Today in Najaf 250 terrorist killed some Iranians and some from Afghanistan came to assassinating Asistani, other Mullah! how come those Iranian killed their proxy and their people in Najaf, see the twist in the news reporting, more those terrorists hid in farms purchased by old regime personal few months back!!
Just for your info there was during Saddam regime a low no one from other cites can purchase land or house in Baghdad (But any Tikrity they Can) because its crowed and capital..
A year ago The New Najaf Authority did same in Najaf City, issued a law no Iraqi out of Najaf city can buy land or house!! Again (but Iranians can) so how it’s come now these old regime supporter purchased theses farms in Najaf city and hide these Terrorists?
They said the heavy numbers of terrorists killed due to heavy bombing by US fighters!! Oh these Smart bombs knew who Shi’at is and who is Sunni or Terrorist!!!
BTW, Najaf is Shi’at City and due to invasion I believe no single Sunni will be left in this city well done Hakim and Mahdi Militia…
We have Arabic saying “Lie’s Rob Short” they forgot how to lie perfectly…
Wonder what else we can believe in these Scenarios as Helena put and others, or US, Iraqi news reporting
Also US and UK very concerned about human rights and women’s Rights in Iraq, and they much feel very sad what the torturing and killing in Iraq.
Read this will uncover real face of those carrying for Shiats, and human rights for Iraqis…
“Real info.” A tall order. The fog of war, plus its first casualty (truth), present some handicaps. At the close of conventional wars, there should be at least some “official” record of troop movements or losses. Here there may never be anything of the sort. Anyone who supposes that the US can or should police the Iraq-Iran border should visit south Texas–or even Chicago. Everywhere there is noncompliance with rules and a general blurring of identities. To keep Iranians out of Iraq would be totally beyond our means, whether now or in a 1,000 years. Sooner or later, US authorities will nab an Iranian with a rap sheet and put him on Fox cameras to shout and gesticulate. If he confesses and puts on a good act, they will be merciful and deport him–to be shot by Iranians. If he is sullen and uncooperative, he will go to Gitmo.
Reidar, this a “Najaf AL-Zarqawi”.
Please read my post here about same story which reported by Sharq Alawsat and other Arab news Medias one day befor the new report as Helena posted, which have many holes first when reported after one US chop shoot down near Najaf.
“Reality based” people in the Bosche Adminsitration?(aka: ‘boche’, french, alternative spelling)
Powell is gone. So who is left?