Oops, I forgot to mention this when it came out, on Friday. But anyway, the piece is here, and also archived here.
The conclusion there:
- there is increasing talk amongst both Palestinians and many Israelis of the possibility of a new intifada. If this does occur, it is most likely to be sparked by the massive wave of colonisation and linked activities the Israeli authorities have been undertaking in East Jerusalem.
Senior diplomats from neighbouring Arab states have warned that, given Jerusalem’s intense significance for Arabs and Muslims everywhere, the effects of a new, Jerusalem-focused intifada could be felt far beyond Palestine.
Helena
You need to check this link.
“But anyway, the piece is here,”
I expect you have seen the kerfuffle in Tel Aviv becasue the Turks wouldn’t let the IAF play airbattle with NATO.
http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1120420.html
Senior Foreign Ministry officials say this is an unusual move by the Turks because, despite the tension and Erdogan’s anti-Israeli rhetoric, it’s the first real step that violates the tripartite agreement between Israel, the United States and Turkey.
Israeli officials say that as far as they know, the move by the Turkish military stemmed from direct orders by Erdogan, who has been piling on anti-Israeli rhetoric since the Gaza offensive, which also led to a freeze in the negotiations Turkey was mediating between Syria and Israel.
Analysts say the key change in Turkey’s attitude is that the military has acquiesced to the prime minister’s political directives on an issue of defense strategy.
Odd to find that the Turks seem to be the ones to demonstrate backbone.
Since Egypt is out of the picture as a US lackey, and EU membership for Turkey looks all but impossible, perhaps Turkey is turning more to the east and is looking to become the real counterweight to Iran in the area?
Link fixed. Thanks, Frank!
Jack
Counterweight?
The future of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey is to integrate as a supplier and transit route alliance to Europe for hydrocarbons.
There is an existing organsisation called the Economic Cooperation Organisation that provides the strucures necessary.
You might find details of Bluestream interesting.
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-189460-102-gazprom-israel-russia-turkey-to-meet-soon-for-blue-stream-ii.html
If you supply the gas you can turn the lights out.
Good points, Jim. But I agree that Turkey is less likely to be a counterweight than an ally of Iran. It’s entirely possible that the Turks may come to realise that their interests are better served by being a major player in he Middle East and Central Asia, rather than – at best – a mistrusted and disliked wannabe EU member.
If this theory is correct, it’s more evidence of a multipolar world, in which the US is less and less able to call the shots.
We will have to wait to see what the Turks do in the long term. Popular feeling is pro-Palestinian, but the US embassy may be more convincing.
One wonders what, with the exception of promises to keep the ultra Kemalist military on a leash, it is that the US Embassy has on offer?
Not EU membership certainly, that went up in a puff of US encouraged, islamophobic racism, a few years back.
Not protection from the Soviet Union (best before 1989) either.
The days when the likes of Perle and Feith interpreted the US to Turkey and vice versa are gone and the light they lit dimming.
Just another one of the unintended consequences of clobbering Saddam. And there are lots more coming.
Jack
You might be interested in this from this morning’s Jerusalem Post.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1255204783066&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Less than a week after Turkey informed Israel that it was unwelcome in the Anatolian Eagle military exercise, 10 Turkish ministers are scheduled to travel to Syria on Tuesday to take part in a meeting of the newly formed Turkey-Syria High Level Strategic Cooperation Council.
The council was established last month in Turkey at a meeting between Turkish foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and his Syrian counterpart, Walid Moallem. At that meeting, the two countries – which were on the verge of war over a border dispute in the 1990s – agreed to do away with visa requirements for visitors to and from both countries.
Oh Gosh!!
Frank, everyone, could you please keep your comments to the subject of the main post (i.e. Abbas’s waning popularity.)
There’s a perfectly good new Turkey-related post here for you to comment at.