My IPS piece on Netanyahu’s big meeting with Obama

… is here. Also here.
What I didn’t have the space to put in there were two things:
1. My judgment (as explored here before now) that Bibi might well throw out the bone of saying he’s prepared to engage with the idea of a Palestinian state… as a way of demonstrating his “flexibility”. But that he would still hedge this apparent acceptance of the idea around with so many caveats that it would be worthless and above all time-wasting. (As was the case in the 1990s when he finally agreed to make the “concession” of meeting with Arafat, etc.)
2. My disgust at the way so many western analysts and journos just lazily accept and perpetuate the US/Israeli spin that “the Arab world” is more concerned about the Iranian “threat” than they are with Israel and Palestine. In the case of the vast majority of Arab governments this simply isn’t so. Imagining that it is simply plays into Netanyahu’s “Iran first” agenda.

23 thoughts on “My IPS piece on Netanyahu’s big meeting with Obama”

  2. Then why is it that George Mitchell said after returning from his ME trip that the single biggest difference he found from today and 2000 was that every govt – Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, PA and Israel mentioned “Iran” in their first sentence?
    Is George spinning?

  3. Got a link, bb? I need to understand what is being said, as I am certain few in at least three of those countries are much concerned about Iran.

  4. Funny Helena that every Arab actor is respectfully addressed with at least his last name yet somehow Netanyahu is a familiar Bibi. Ruling out that being an affectionate use of Bibi I think it is plain disrespect. Netanyahu is a democratically elected prime minister (unlike some of the other characters in the area), please practice what you preach in terms of respect and form you sad lady.

  5. Haaretz 20/02/09
    “The Mideast envoy told the Jewish group leaders that on his way back from his first visit to the region, he was struck while reading the “Mitchell Report” he had written on the Middle East eight years ago how much has changed in that time.
    For instance, he said, Iran was not mentioned in that document, but the country was brought up in the “first sentence” of his initial meetings with every leader in the region.
    Today, he said, all the conflicts in the region are viewed through the Iran prism, and the U.S. administration will devise a “coordinated strategy that will take into account regional leaders concerns regarding Iran.”
    Also, Huffington Post on 19/02/02, reporting the same:
    “Underscoring just how much the Middle East landscape has changed during the Bush years, he expressed shock at how Iran dominated.
    “He said,” relayed the source, “and I’m paraphrasing: ‘I was struck by how different things are. Eight years ago when I was speaking to these players, no one mentioned Iran. This time almost the first sentence out of everyone’s mouth was Iran.'”
    This was when Mitchell came back from visiting Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, PA and Israel.

  6. And what, exactly, do Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, PA and Israel all have in common? Well, let’s see now. Can it possibly be that they are all U.S. client states and regimes who rise and fall according to how well they please the United States?
    They know that Iran is the current U.S. target, so of course they will make it an issue.

  7. I have no doubt that President Obama will in no way be coerced by the new Israeli premier into continuing the tragic play-act whereby Israelis live and Palestinians die on the basis that Israeli swimming pools are more important than drinking-water for the indigenous people of Gaza and the West Bank.
    Our President is patently not a patsy of a foreign power as was his predecessor and will insist that Netanyahu recognizes that he speaks for a small minority nation of just 4.8 million. We are 308 million and we shall overcome this bigotry and prejudice that has so damaged the world over the past decades. Enough is enough.

  8. Is George spinning?
    Of course George is spinning. All politicians spin all the time. It’s part of the job. That doesn’t necessarily mean that this particular remark is false (though it might be, of course). After all, politicians can speak the truth, theoretically at least. However, you never know when they do, so you can’t have any certainty about any specific remark they make. This being so, the wise thing to do is to take everything said by a politician with a pinch of salt.
    In this particular case, I wouldn’t be surprised if George Mitchell would have told the truth, for the reasons given above by Shirin. If so, it only illustrates the principle that all politicians spin all the time; not only Mitchell, but also the ones in the client states he visited. And since the Spin of the Day happens to be that Iran Is The Danger We All Have to Fear, that’s what we’ll hear from them.

  9. Could it be that Dennis Ross, like Hillary , was appointed to a high government position so that the Obama people could control him (or at least try)and keep him out of the way while Mitchell does the real work? Or are Hillary and Dennis working hard right now to insure that the Clinton/Bush line on Israel continues? I predict that there will be no Netanyahu/Obama conflict. The meeting will be warm and fuzzy, especially fuzzy on real details or action. I think Helena is right about the effect of the whispered reason for Bush senior getting only one term. It is interesting that the only two Presidents to be denied a second term in the last 30 years were the ones who stood up to Israel (although, yes, both had enormous economic problems at election time).It would take a President of real courage to run that risk and, so far, Obama has shown a complete lack of spine.

  10. “This time almost the first sentence out of everyone’s mouth was Iran.”
    This is merely a statement of the obvious over the massively changed balance of power in the Middle East between pre & post 19 March 2003. Arabs are sensibly concerned over the evolving US/Iranian relationship, Iranian regional hegemony and interplay of the Israeli/Palestinian issue to the disadvantage of many of the Arab regimes among their populations.

  11. “This time almost the first sentence out of everyone’s mouth was Iran.”
    This is merely a statement of the obvious over the massively changed balance of power in the Middle East between pre & post 19 March 2003. Arabs are sensibly concerned over the evolving US/Iranian relationship, Iranian regional hegemony and interplay of the Israeli/Palestinian issue to the disadvantage of many of the Arab regimes among their populations.

  12. Dennis Ross? I can’t help but get the feeling this appointment has more to do with tokenism than anything of substance.

  13. That’s the point, isn’t it, bb? Mitchhell cited to the Israelis (not the world in general), the views of unrepresentative regimes who are ready to brown-nose the US. Says nothing about what the Arab world really thinks.

  14. HC: Then as now, officials in both Washington and Israel were also concerned with another big threat from elsewhere in the region, whose presence strongly coloured their Arab-Israeli diplomacy. In 1991, it was Iraq; today, it is Iran.
    The NIE and the IAEA said that Iran is not a threat, big or otherwise.
    National Intelligence Estimate, Dec 4, 2007 . . .. We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program
    IAEA Report on Iran, Nov 19, 2008 — “The Agency has been able to continue to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran. Iran has provided the Agency with access to declared nuclear material and has provided the required nuclear material accounting reports in connection with declared nuclear material and activities.”
    But Barack Obama and some others know better, and what better way to segue into the I/P round-dance than by following the AIPAC lead and bashing Iran.
    April 5, 2009 . . .Obama: “So let me be clear: Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile activity poses a real threat, not just to the United States, but to Iran’s neighbors and our allies.”
    That’s it, case closed, Iran is not only a threat but a big, real threat not only to Israel, which has three nuclear submarines off Iran and probably a 200-weapon nuclear arsenal, but also to the US, which has a carrier fleet off Iran’s shores and thousands of nuclear weapons, some of which are no doubt targeted on Tehran.
    Iran, the big world threat.
    HC: Somewhere along the way there – or shortly after the Cairo speech – Obama will almost certainly have to reveal what it is, exactly, that he plans to do to win Arab-Israeli peace.
    Obviously he’ll have to deal with the big threat from Iran, a country that is in full compliance with the NPT and that has never attacked nor actually treatened any other country.

  15. Alex:
    Helena didn’t say the “Arab world” – she said “the vast majority of Arab Governments”.
    btw – all Arab regimes are unrepresentative. Except for the Government of Iraq.

  16. more on Iran, the big world threat:
    In an interview with Newsweek on Saturday when asked about war with Iran, Obama made it clear that he did not take any options off the table. “I’ve been very clear that I don’t take any options off the table with respect to Iran. I don’t take options off the table when it comes to US security, period,” said Obama.
    from Dan Kervick TWN);
    Hey Iran: you thought that Mossadegh coup was bad? Well you’re about to get it in the ass again from the US and its shabby new coalition of “partners for peace.” I hope you already have a sheltered spot picked out where you can shield your kids from the bunker-busters. While you and your Shia friends in Lebanon are getting ready to hold actual elections, a friendly posse of despots, oil barons and neo-Afrikaners are assembling around our new Sheriff in Washington to ride out save your region from the Threats to Democracy and Moderation.
    It’s one of the oldest maneuvers in the book: build unity among a fractious coalition of gangsters by scapegoating a “common enemy” and having at them. In the West’s old days, they would have zeroed in on the Jews. But the latter are in the Kool Kidz Klub this time around. It’s the dreaded Persian Empire that has been selected for example-making on this occasion.

  17. The Iranian threat is an artificial concern as far as the Arabs are concerned. I agree with HELENA .
    On the other hand the israeli threat is a world wide concern . A bully whom Democracy means to it supremacy and constant destruction to its neighbours with banned weapons, land grab and a mentality that belongs to the cavemen combined with owning nuclear war heads is the true threat universally.
    As one of the ministers stated before his death “Pakistan is more dangerous than all of the Arabs world combined” and should be taken care of, now Iran and tomorrow Turkey, Iraq is well beyond destruction.
    Destroying the “other” is an obsession for that brutal occupier and world bully .
    They have the audacity yet to raise their heads and stick their tongues, and accuse every descent member of the world community as a radical, terrorist…..
    example the Norwegian doctor who witnessed the savagery in both Lebanon and Gaza on the hands of the israeli murderers on a besieged people in the case of their latest offence.

  19. A call for “Arab leaders! estabilsh interest an not position for granted”.
    taking Iran as an anemy for granted is not fair. Iran could be a potential ally for the palestinian cause and make the arab states negotiate with Israel from a strong position on the bases ” two state – solution live alongside each other”. That’s enough for the arab regimes to be all the time subortunate to the USA outlook and they need to be rational in their policies.
    Hafid

  20. The “realities” that no wants to face.
    A. Either Israelis accept in its totality the UN Resolutions of 1948 that created it and the Palestenian State. Or
    B. For Israel to incorporate the Gaza Gulag and the West Bank into its territory with the certainty of becoming a minority within two decades.
    C. Continue its colonialization efforts until its defeated militarily at some point in the future.
    D. Iran is not going to go away and will in time acquire nuclear capabilities..
    E. Attempts at playing the Iran versus the Arabs cards can only benefit Israel and one or two Arab leaders who are already on shaky grounds.
    F. The US already mired in three military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan [all muslim nations] will think more than twice before falling for the Netanyahu/AIPAC line.

  21. sorry for the wrong spelling of subordinate,because “subortunate” means nonsense.
    Hafid

  22. That’s enough for the arab regimes to be all the time subortunate to the USA outlook and they need to be rational in their policies.
    Abdelhafid Dib,
    Your reading of the ME may be not right.
    Looking for the last 50 years of conflicts in ME which used to benefits one side that run the show but not the Arabs citizens/ Muslims nations in general.
    The state of continuous wars in ME ( 5-10 years apart) its used easy very well to grab the money from the richest leaders (not richest Arab nations you know what I mean) this is the way going all along.
    If you think these confects is pure of disagreement on land or border and other wars like Iraq/Iran, Iraq/Kuwait, very easily you can find those fingers played behind the curtains to ignite these confects and wars in ME.
    Howmany times Arab countries rebuilding the distraction caused by wars?
    Howmany billions spent which ended to western companies to rebuild the distractions caused by those wars in ME countries?
    If we count recent example Iraq and how much money lost Trillions of money went off and we ended Iraq worse than 100 years ago, Iraq in the end of the list of the worst place on plant to live in, Iraq in the end of the list of most corrupted country on the planet.
    Is there a better way keeping ME house unfurnished and disorders using small wars here and there that keep the money follow?
    Years ago met a friend he was working with Swiss company selling very expensive lights things with crystals and gold coated stuff. At charismas time there were small party, the talk went with the guy he worked with company (he is an Iraqi) asked why his manger why the company sell product to these rich countries (Gulf /Saudis) double or triple in the prices as the company sale for other western customers?
    The Manager answered, is it better to get their money by this way or they will spent the money buying weapons and wars?
    So it doesn’t matter the money goes here or there, we got a nations in ME suffering from poverty, low education, no health systems, not developed despite the wealth they had in matter of resources and human.
    Here do not judge me wrong, I don’t put all the blames on the west, but we do have to shear part of the problems we had in ME societies and nations, we are hopeless people we need to move for change in ourselves, in our lives, starting from our families to our workplace and streets and towns and cities and our nation, this is we should learn and start doing, when we figure out then we can say our fests on the right steps….

  23. I do share with you the same opinion Salah. But don’t you see that our leaders who are first to blame for our miserable situation!
    Hafid

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