- I am happy to publish here a report that Thomas Strouse penned from Damascus on March 31. I thought it gave some useful background flavor to recent developments in the Syrian capital, and at the Arab summit.
Strouse is working on his Masters degree in Middle East Studies at George Washington University and took the current semester off to study Arabic in Damascus for five months. He also works at Foreign Reports, an oil consulting firm in Washington that primarily reports on political developments in the Middle East relevant to oil markets. He has been writing weekly reports from Damascus. If you’d like to receive them, please drop him a line directly.
Report From Damascus (March 31, 2009)
The flurry of regional diplomatic movement over the past month finally culminated in the Arab Summit which opened in Doha, Qatar on Monday. Key Arab states have all been preparing and maneuvering for the summit for much of the past month. There were several tracks to this pre-summit diplomacy, but Syria was certainly at the center of one of them.
Syria has been receiving special attention from the U.S., as well as from some Arab states that it has not had the best of ties with over recent years. As many have put it, Syria is “coming in from the cold.”
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad made landmark visits to both Saudi Arabia and Jordan in March. In Riyadh, he met with Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah. This meeting was dubbed an Arab “mini-summit.”
One indication of how far Damascus has come along in the past year are the circumstances surrounding the last Arab Summit, which was actually held in Damascus exactly one year ago. Saudi Arabia and Egypt snubbed the summit by sending unusually low-level officials. Lebanon boycotted it completely. Only 11 leaders joined Assad in Damascus, with 10 others deciding to remain at home. (17 leaders attended the Doha Summit). Syria blamed the U.S. for pressuring Arab leaders not to attend, noting that then-U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney was in Saudi Arabia the week before. Overall, last year’s summit was an embarrassment for the leadership in Damascus. It was a clear example of the serious Arab divisions at the time, as well as Syria’s role in these divisions.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was reportedly the first head of state from the 22-member Arab League to land in Doha for this summit. Sunday newspapers in Syria all had similar photos and headlines across the front pages. The picture was of Assad being greeted in Doha by Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani. The headlines all mentioned promoting Arab reconciliation. As opposed to last year’s summit in Damascus, Syria is now being catered to from all sides and “Arab reconciliation” seems to be the tag line of the day.
Syria and Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is trying hard to pull together the Arab ranks, in an attempt to use its leadership role in the region to push forward with Arab reconciliation, primarily in its efforts to isolate Iran.
Over the past few years, Saudi King Abdullah has not made his frustration with Damascus and his personal dislike for Assad a big secret. That is why their meeting was so important. At the very least, it is an attempt by Saudi Arabia to paper over some of its differences with Syria. It is unclear how sincere or long-lasting this rapprochement may be. In the meantime it appears that Riyadh, at least from its perspective, has decided to deal with the lesser of two evils (i.e. Syria) in an attempt to shut out the true poison of the region (i.e. Iran).
Despite very few details surfacing from the closed-door meeting in Riyadh, several photos of Assad and Abdullah laughing and shaking hands were on the front pages of Arab newspapers and continue to be shown on Arab news channels.
The Associated Press reported last Friday that during the meeting Saudi Arabia offered Assad a financial package to offset Iranian aid to Damascus if it does decide to break its ties with Tehran. Abdullah also reportedly promised Assad that Saudi Arabia would push to mobilize Arab support to back Syria in its future negotiations with Israel.
Syria and Iran
A few days after Assad’s appearance in Riyadh on March 11, there were a few interesting headlines from Iranian (English) news sources. (“Syria Loyal to Iran after Riyadh Meeting” and “Syria Portrays Brilliant Prospects for Ties with Iran”). Of course, this may not mean much. But I found it interesting and somewhat amusing. The Iranians typically believe that they are true masters at propaganda. But it is usually easy to see through. They are either trying to reassure themselves or trying to demonstrate to the U.S. how difficult its strategy of trying to place a wedge between Iran and Syria will actually be.
The Iranians are clearly uneasy about the new attention that Syria is receiving from the West and from Arab states such as Saudi Arabia. Tehran will continue to brush it off as insignificant and stress how strong its relationship is with Damascus. Syria will also try to keep reassuring the Iranians. However, Iran is well aware that it is the major target of much of the attention that Syria is currently receiving. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are not hiding this point at all.
Syria’s relationship with Iran has severely cost its relations with some of the more “moderate” Arab states, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Syria has used its relationship with Iran to protect itself from political isolation, as well as for various economic reasons. Iran has used the relationship in its attempt at political expansionism. For example, through Syria, Iranian influence can more easily penetrate Lebanon and it can more easily jab the Israelis.
Some Syrians I have spoken with have had some interesting thoughts on their country’s relationship with Iran. I have been surprised that most Syrians do not have too many positive things to say about Iranians, in general. But they believe that Iran has stood by them over the years, when others have left them or pushed them up against the wall. In their opinion, leaving the Iranians now may mean betrayal of a friend that has always been there for them.
If any movement on this front does occur, Syria will be slow to cut its ties with Iran. As Syria’s dialogue with the U.S. continues, Damascus will continue to try to work on both sides of the fence to keep all options open. It will also likely remain on its best behavior over the next few months, so as to maximize the benefits it might be able to reap from the U.S., Saudi Arabia, etc. Assad will hold his most powerful cards close to him, until he is guaranteed something very lucrative in return. Some of these powerful cards include Syria’s close ties with Iran and Hizballah.
Splitting up Iran and Syria has been a major goal of the West for many years. However, their relationship runs deeper than most typically recognize. Their close relationship dates back to the beginning years of the Iran-Iraq War, which began in 1980. When other Arab states (and the U.S.) supported Iraq, politically and militarily, Syria supported Iran. However, this may have largely been a strategic calculation by the Syrian president at the time, Hafez al-Assad.
Hafez al-Assad worried that the war would exhaust both Iraq and Iran, which in his opinion, would only end up benefiting Israel. Furthermore, Assad was concerned that Iran might be defeated by Saddam, leaving Syria cornered by two key adversaries: Iraq and Israel. Assad opposed the war, but wanted to make sure that it ended in Saddam’s defeat. In 1982, Syria closed its border with Iraq and shut down the Iraqi oil pipeline that runs through Syrian territory and ends at its Mediterranean port at Baniyas. This was in exchange for cheap oil imports from Iran and trade agreements that gave Syrian companies a very lucrative export market in Iran. The close relationship between Damascus and Tehran continued after the Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988.
When the relationship was fostered in the early years of the Islamic Revolution, many doubted Assad’s judgment. However, Patrick Seale wrote in Assad’s quasi-official biography, Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East, that “while many shuddered at the rise of the Ayatollah, Asad sided with him in a striking demonstration of political foresight and strategic flexibility.”
In recent years, when Syria faced significant pressure and isolation from the likes of the U.S., it had a friend in Tehran that it could turn to for support.
Arabs vs. Persians
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad eventually decided to save himself the trouble and the potential embarrassment by not attending the Arab Summit as an observer. (Iran is not a member of the Arab League). He is typically only a distraction at these events. (Even President Assad did not invite him to last year’s summit, despite inviting the Iranian foreign minister). Ahmadinejad was invited this year by the Qataris, but there was some serious Arab opposition to his attending of the conference. Some Arab delegations even suggested that they would send lower-level officials if Ahmadinejad attended. The only image I have seen of Ahmadinejad on Al-Jazeera the past few days has been him in attendance for Iran’s World Cup qualifier match against Saudi Arabia in Tehran on Saturday. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia upset Iran 2 to 1 in the match.
Bashir and His Arab Friends vs. the ICC
Despite keeping everyone guessing until the last minute, Sudanese President Omar Bashir decided to make a grand appearance in Doha. Since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for his arrest on March 4, Bashir has already made three other defiant visits to Egypt, Eritrea, and Libya. Many were not sure if he would risk showing up in Qatar.
Bashir has proven to be a major distraction to some of the most serious issues of the Doha Summit. It affected the summit agenda, as well as the coverage it has received in the Western and Arab media. Al-Jazeera followed every step of Bashir after he stepped off the plane in Doha. On the tarmac, he received red-carpet treatment and was met by the Qatari emir in open arms. (Jordanian King Abdullah II reportedly left the summit early because he felt slighted that he was only met by the Qatari prime minister, and not the emir himself). I have been intrigued by how much Al-Jazeera has covered the case of Bashir. It has been one of the top news stories since the ICC announced its decision on March 4.
The New York Times may have said it best: “Arab leaders may be divided over which Palestinian faction to support and what to do about Iran’s rising influence, but they have found one cause to rally around: protecting the president of Sudan from charges that he orchestrated the rape, killing and widespread pillaging in Darfur.”
Perhaps it is just me, but there seem to be better Arab leaders to create an artificial sense of Arab unity around. Sometimes the symbolism of “Arabism” trumps pragmatism in the politics of the region. It is unfortunate that supporting Bashir was one of the only issues that the Arabs could all agree on in Doha.
Egypt vs. Qatar
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak decided to snub the Qataris and not attend the summit. This provided yet another distraction. Reasons for his skipping the summit are being widely discussed. Egypt and Qatar have recently been at significant odds over a variety of regional issues. They have taken different approaches to the Palestinian issue and Egypt has been critical of Qatar’s proximity to Iran. Mubarak has also been unhappy with Al-Jazeera, which is funded by the Qatari government in Doha. The channel was extremely critical of Mubarak during the recent Gaza conflict. For his part, Mubarak reportedly pressured for the Qatari emir not to be part of the “mini-summit” in Riyadh. The Qataris have recently been trying to increase their role as a mediator in the region. Perhaps Mubarak feels that this is his territory.
Egypt’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossam Zaki released a statement on Sunday saying that Mubarak’s absence from the summit is due to “sticking points in relations between Qatar and Egypt.” Zaki added: “A brother should respect his brother and not harm him, even with a word.”
At a news conference on Saturday, Qatari prime minister (and foreign minister) Sheikh Hamid bin Jassem bin Jaber Al-Thani was asked about Mubarak. He said that he respects Mubarak’s decision, but added that he wished that Mubarak would have decided to enrich and enlighten the summit with his ideas.
In a random shop in Damascus today I stumbled upon Monday’s edition of Egypt’s Al-Ahram newspaper. The main front page photo was of Mubarak picking fruit off of a tree at a farm in Egypt.
Qadaffi vs. Abdullah
Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi took it upon himself to create yet another spectacle of himself at an Arab Summit. This distraction was unanticipated, but it is not surprising considering who it came from. It also isn’t too significant, but it adds some comic relief.
As the Qatari emir was introducing the summit, Qaddafi interrupted him to address the Saudi King. “I seize the opportunity to tell my brother Abdullah, you have been evasive and scared of confrontation for six years. I want to assure you today not to be scared. I am telling you after six years it was proven that lies stand behind you and your grave awaits you,” Qaddafi said. “You were created by Britain and protected by the U.S. I consider the personal issue that lasted between you and me is over and I am ready to visit you as well as receive you.”
When the Qatari emir tried to silence the Libyan leader by shutting off his microphone, Qaddafi insisted that he was allowed to speak. “I am an international leader, the dean of the Arab rulers, the king of kings of Africa and the imam of Muslims, and my international status does not allow me to descend to a lower level,” Qaddafi shot back. After this, he proceeded to get up and leave the meeting. After his outburst, he reportedly went on a tour of the Museum of Islamic Art in Doha.
This was not the first time that Qaddafi and Abdullah had a public spat. At the 2003 Arab Summit in Egypt, the two leaders exchanged words until President Mubarak shut off their microphones. They both sat down and met with one another later in the day yesterday to “reconcile.” Most Arab newspapers today had a photo of this meeting on the front page. Next year’s Arab Summit is scheduled to be in Libya.
Qaddafi came to the opening session of the summit dressed in a bronze-colored ochre robe. He also wore a cap and sported dark black wrap-around sunglasses. This is fairly typical of his wardrobe. He has no official title, but he refers to himself as all sorts of dignified titles. He has been the leader of Libya since he took over in a 1969 military coup at the age of 27.
Qaddafi has a habit of creating a spectacle at these meetings. At the 1988 Arab Summit in Algeria, he wore a white glove on his right hand. He explained to the conference that this was so he could avoid having to soil his hand by shaking hands with all of the Arab traitors in attendance. At the same conference, he pulled a white hood over his head when Jordan’s King Hussein spoke. In a closed session, he pulled out a cigar and started blowing smoke into the face of Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd. Despite being a non-smoker, he also sat smoking a cigar in the middle of the opening session at the 2004 Arab Summit in Tunisia, demonstrating his contempt for the other leaders. He leaned toward Egyptian President Mubarak, who was sitting next to him at the time, simply to point out that he was smoking an American cigar. After this, he proceeded to leave the meeting in the middle of the opening speech. In his address at last year’s summit in Damascus, he mocked Arab unity. “Our blood and our language may be one, but there is nothing that can unite us,” Qaddafi said. “We hate each other, we wish ill of each other and our intelligence services conspire against each other. We are our own enemy.” Indeed, he may have had a point. In 2004, an alleged Libyan intelligence service plot to assassinate Saudi King Abdullah was uncovered.
Arab Reconciliation?
Unfortunately, the Arab Summit came down to being fraught with public distractions and largely only showcased individual personalities, rather than providing any real progress on Arab reconciliation. Despite it still being unclear what was discussed behind closed doors, Syria’s position within the summit became overshadowed by other distractions and odd antics.
In President Assad’s address to the summit on Monday, he said: “Up to this moment, our relations have been subject to our personalities and moods as individuals, and consequently are subject to misunderstanding, misjudgment, and are set back every time we face a particularly sensitive problem. The continuation of what we have started does not tolerate severe and unexpected fluctuations.”
More significant than the Arab Summit itself will be how the regional dynamics shape out over the coming weeks…. Stay tuned.