Yesterday, the news from Baghdad was that the visiting Condi Rice was very close to nailing the longer-term security agreement with the ‘government’ of Iraq that the Bush administration has been aiming for for a long while now. But the longer term news looks much more like that of mounting disagreements between the governments in Washington and Baghdad, than increasing levels of agreement.
Disagreement is clear over two key issues: the status of the negotiations over the US-Iraqi security pact, and government policy toward the mainly-Sunni ‘Awakening’ councils that have been a main pillar of the US political strategy since early fall 2006.
Regarding the security pact negotiations, the transcript of the press conference Rice held with Iraq ‘Foreign Minister’ Hoshyar Zebari yesterday shows that, while neither Rice nor Zebari claimed that they had finished the negotiations, Rice was actually more guarded than Zebari in claiming they were getting close to finalization.
Regarding the content of what they were discussing, Rice made clear that she was still talking only about timetables– in the plural– for troop withdrawal that were both conditions-based, and “aspirational.”
For his part, Zebari could not even bring himself to say the word “timetable.” (Perhaps the prospect gives his ardently Kurdish heart some palpitations?) All he managed to talk about was “time horizon.”
That is so much last month’s meme-of-choice.
Today, the evidence of disagreement over the security ‘agreement’ continued. AFP reported that Mohammed al-Haj Mahmoud, described as “the top official in the Iraqi [SOFA-negotiating] team, told them that negotiators had, “finalised a deal which will see the complete withdrawal of US troops from Iraq by 2011, ending an eight-year occupation…”
So he was claiming the negotiation had been finished. But even he made clear that what was being referred to was a considerably less-than-total withdrawal, since he specified it would only be from the cities.
AFP also added that White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe “said the deal was yet to be finalised.… ‘It’s not done until it’s done.'”
It strikes me there is an air of unreality to this whole story of “negotiations” over the terms of a longterm bilateral security pact. Urgent troop planning considerations that have nothing to do with the situation in Iraq are going to be forcing the Pentagon to implement a pretty deep and rapid drawdown of the US troop presence from there over the next 12 months, regardless of whether there is a “SOFA”, an “oil agreement”, “provincial elections”, or any of those other things the US has set as its current political goals in Iraq. The “best” scenario they can hope to achieve at this point is something far more modest than any of those ambitious political goals. It is a drawdown/pullout of US troops that is less rather then more chaotic for the troops involved and that leaves the country and the region in a less rather than more unstable state.
A cynic might ask, “What do the Bush administration folks care about whether the region goes up in flames behind them as they leave?” My answer is that if the region is going up in flames it is certainly not good for the US– either for the oil companies or the citizenry. Plus, this conflagration would not happening only “behind” the departing troops but might also, with a high degree of probability, catch many of the departing troops in its fires, too… As I’ve argued for many years now, the possibility of implementing an “orderly”– i.e. not fired-upon– troop withdrawal is directly linked to ensuring in some way that the Iraqis have a decent chance of reaching their own internal entente as the US troops pull out.
And right now, things don’t seem to be heading in that direction (to say the very least.) The US-installed and -supported Iraqi “government” seems to be seriously feeling its oats these days, doing a number of things that Washington isn’t happy about at all. Notable among these is the campaign it is now mounting directly against the US-incubated “Awakening Councils”
Patrick Cockburn reports from Baghdad today that,
- Already the government has started moving against al-Sahwa, the Awakening Movement, fostered and paid by the US to eliminate al Qa’ida in Iraq. It has drawn up a list of 650 al-Sahwa members to be arrested. The US military opposes the move but may not be able to defend its Sunni allies from a largely Shia government and army.
He also writes,
- for the first time since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi government is confident that it can survive without US military support.
Richard Oppel of the NYT has a longer version of the same story about the government turning strongly against the Sahwa (Awakening Councils.). It is all unbelievably tragic; yet another twist in the ghastly tale of how the US occupation authorities have aggressively pursued a divide and rule policy throughout the country, in a way that has involved inflaming sectarian and ethnic tensions while pumping additional quantities of armies into beleaguered Iraqi communities.
Washington’s Iraq policy looks poised on the brink of a serious disaster. The Bushites will doubtless do everything they can to prevent it going over the cliff before the U.S. election, November 4. But if Barack Obama wins the election, there may be some in the outgoing administration who wouldn’t be too concerned about the prospect of a disaster occurring in Iraq, say, some time after next January.
I just hope we can rely on Defense Secretary Gates and the leaders of Centcom to act with wisdom and statesmanship during those crucial transition weeks…
I know that Bush, Rice, Gates and Petraeus like to pretend that they are in charge of events in Iraq, but the truth is somewhat more complex.
The five year US “divide-and-conquer” strategy, in my view, has been replaced by Iran’s “consolidate the Iraq Shi’ite victory” strategy, which includes, in chronological order:
(1) isolation of the nationalistic Sadrists, who have been disarmed,
(2) neutralization of the Sunni minority, which the removal of US troops from the cities (June, 2009) would facilitate, and finally
(3) a showdown with the Kurds.
Having said this, the US military presence is, as it always has been, based on conditions on the ground and also depends on politicians who have been bought staying bought and not asking the US to leave. Here again, though, Iranian influence becomes a major factor which will probably over-ride US military intentions. We could say that the war is over and Iran won.
All of which means that the US is not in control of events, except slightly, and US wisdom and statesmanship (?) may not have a chance to act (which might be a blessing). What will Iran do? is the question. Also, will the US military find it necessary at some point to fight the new Iraqi army?
Meanwhile, the profits continue to role in to Bush’s friends, the elite, his power base. So why worry?
Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Ron Suskind has written,The Way of the World: A Story of Truth and Hope in an Age of Extremism. Suskind reports that in 2003 the White House ordered the CIA to forge and disseminate false intelligence documents linking al-Qaeda and Iraq. While much of the attention on the book has focused on the forged letter, Suskind also reveals that the Bush administration and the British government knew prior to the war that Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction.
Every few days Bush thinks up something new, some new reason why the U.S. should get in there & make a big mess & slaughter tens of thousands of people, maybe hundreds of thousands. So how many has Bush killed & been directly responsible for killing!–Although he didn’t have to actually pull the trigger, Presidents of the United States have done the same–and even worse! The clever subtlety of this regime–what smooth, suave, scientific and reasonable patriotic excuses it had for everything. They thought all very logical and obviously supposed to be very good for you and good for everyone, good for the Country and even for the rest of the world.
Many pundits were almost convinced yourself–into believing what they were doing was right and for the common good,and even necessary, so that you felt little or no resentment or resistance. It was hypnotic: You moved along as though in a trance, as though drugged or dreaming, unable to speak out, unable to contradict, and much less able to rebel against what was called “the Truth”, although all the time you realised subconsciously that it was some kind of big, horrible, and monstrous lie, but you were afraid not to believe it.
Ted Rudow III,MA
You do have to marvel at the Iraqis as negotiators. They truly make the most of the little they have. It’s been how many years now, and still no oil law? Any deals going forward are under the old law, which does not allow PSAs or other forms of control by Houston.
Now Iraq is playing hardball with the end of the UN mandate. Bush has his back up against the wall and he knows it. Now the Iraqis are saying, “we have finalized a deal,” which puts the US in the awkward position of rejecting a deal that it desperately needs. And Bush can’t lay the blame on the Iraqis, though he will, because they did a deal.
Of course, we could have a little “Green Zone coup” after the US elections to replace Maliki with a real quisling. That would certainly roil Iraq and provide justifications for many more years of occupation and enless, fat “defense” contracts, though I wouldn’t expect much oil to flow out of there for years to come.
Such a development would also keep the US military overstretched (partly because of the fatness of the “defense” contracts) and unable to address other strategic challenges.
It will be interesting to see how Bush picks his poison.
I wonder how true the anti-Sahwa moves said to be coming from Maliki are. Cockburn’s article, though he’s good, is just a transcription of other stories.
No doubt the Sahwa people will be dumped, they will be got rid of, as they were a US idea, so the US can pay them. But why now in particular (as someone commented)? There’s no reason.
On the other hand, there are very powerful motives right now for the US authorities in the Green Zone to want to suggest that an anti-Sahwa move is about to take place. That would split the opposition to the signing of the SOFA.
Nearly all this story has emanated from US analysts who’ve been in Baghdad recently, and were no doubt royally entertained and briefed in the seminar rooms of the US embassy.
So we should be careful in evaluating the stories on this, check out who is saying what. Is it the famous anonymous “US officials” yet again?
“It’s been how many years now, and still no oil law?”
Maliki and his make-believe government deserve absolutely no credit for that. It is mainly the Parliament we have to thank. The oil workers’ and other unions have also been very active in their opposition. Maliki and his gang of whatevers, on the other hand, were only too happy to sign whatever the Americans presented them with, even though it was drafted and finalized in English and only after it met with the approval of the U.S powers translated (not all that well) into Arabic.
Incidentally, Condoleeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzza (what a ridiculous name for a ridiculous woman) was greeted in Baghdad with signs saying things like اخرجي من بلادنا يا وزيرة الشر (get out of our country, oh minister of evil). Of course, since the signs were in Arabic, she probably thought the people were welcoming her with open arms.
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice (?)
“A Western advisor to the Iraqi government said the U.S. military couldn’t stop the Iraqi security forces now even if it wanted to — they are larger in size and have their own chain of command.”
Happy days.
Shirin,
(what a ridiculous name for a ridiculous woman)
Dr. Crude Oil colour, she likes to see here Oil tanks run in Iraq and from Iraq.
Shirin,
(what a ridiculous name for a ridiculous woman)
Dr. Crude Oil colour, she likes to see here Oil tanks run in Iraq and from Iraq.
(get out of our country, oh minister of evil).
John H.,
Sarkozy is rather atypical as a French president. He is probably the most americanophile there has never been since the end of WWII. Since de Gaulle France has alsways maintained a clear independance from the US and NATO. Now Sarkozy has renounced to its particularism inside of the NATO command. He looks like Bush’s mouth in the EU, even more than Browns’UK or Angela Merkel. It looks as if he was trying to replace Blair in the relationship of US/EU (for both, their narcissism seems to be happy to take the front role in trying to convince other EU to act as the US wants).
May be that Sarkozy’s origins in East EUrope and their flight to France out of fear of the Soviets explains this ?
Anyway, French opinion IMO is not ready to adopt the same poodlish attitude as the Britts toward the US, so this will (hopefully) limit his nuisance power.
Concerning Germany, it is interesting to note that although Angela Merkel has been living in East Germany until the reunification, she shows much more realism in the German/Russian relationships. May be it’s only realism : they know they need Russian Gaz. They have recently irated Poland, because of a project which should conduct Gaz directly from Russia to Germany (via a maritime road) and thus avoid the Ukrainian & Georgian interference in the supply line. Note that Germany has a difficult relationship to Poland, because they want good relationships with Russia.
More generally, I think that EU wants good relationships with Russia. But that the US fears that terribly and so is now agitating former Soviets satellite states, like Georgia and Ukrain and even Poland. In fact, the US is trying to pit EU countries against each others (just like it does in Iraq and other countries).
But the logic of geography will IMO push the EU and the Russian to maintain good relationships.
Evidently during a dinner celebrating the US Polish anti-Russian Pact, Condoleeza Rice and Tusk toasted the new alliance with Georgian wines. Which just about sums the lightminded clownishness of these people up.
Trough the crises between Russia and Georgia, I kept close eye what come from the mouth of Dr. Condoleezza Rice, someone who is quoted frequently by the Western press as being a fluent Russian speaker and a Russian expert, although she has never lived in the country.
In all her comments on Russian it’s clear that she did not have mentioned in deep her Russian expert.
Wondering how much her skills with what we hear from western media, bring to mind what we heard about
Paul Bremer with his skills of “Marsh Crisis Consulting assists corporations in planning for, managing, and recovering from a “full range of crises such as financial misconduct, natural disasters, product recalls, class action lawsuits and terrorism.” with more of these fancy words and titles we ended with a guy he is thug and stupid he know nothing than thuggish attitude thieving foreign nation resources more appalling his disastrous management skills ended that billions vanished he don’t know how and why while he is as command in chief.
Christiane writes “More generally, I think that EU wants good relationships with Russia. But that the US fears that terribly …”
Yes, indeed. And that is why, for example, the US has worked so hard to arrange for oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia to bypass Russia. The US understands that an EU that is dependent on Russia for its energy is one that is less likely to align its foreign policy with that of the US.
Patrick wrote :
The US understands that an EU that is dependent on Russia for its energy is one that is less likely to align its foreign policy with that of the US.
To a certain point… It is in the interest of the EU to diversify its energy supplier. Yet lately, the US is at the same time concurrencing the EU : for instance she has signed several contracts with Algeria and is trying to replace France there; she is trying to get oil from Libya (where Italy used to be present). Last but not least, she invaded Iraq with whom not only Russia, but also France had a strong presence. All these contracts were then cancelled. EU is now eager to make contracts with Iran, but the US managed to impose sanctions on them and is trying to prevent other countries to sign deals with Iran. In reaction to the US attitude, the Iranians have recently signed important contracts with the Russians (not only for gaz, but also for pipelines, if my memorys serves me correctly).
Whatever importance these facts have, their accumulation makes the EU more and more dependant of Russia.
their accumulation makes the EU more and more dependant of Russia
christiane, when the EU and Russia sign long term supply agreements and conduct these joint ventures, the dependencies flow in both directions. cross border acquisitions by gazprom, bp etc mutualize both business and political risk – putin can’t afford to scare away western partners for deepwater oil & pipeline projects, and putin needs europes’s money and technical know-how as much as they need his gas.
currently the russian market is in a tailspin. putin’s friends have lost around 300 bln in market cap in 2 months. threatening europe isn’t what he should be doing right now.
re: iraqi oil, it may interest you that french oil major Total is currently partnered with chevron in negotiating for majnoon (they never signed anything with Hussein, that was pre-acquisition Elf, whose 4 billion PSA letter of intent was abandoned by Total due to UN sanctions.)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idUKSP4757320080622
of course this is a service contract, not a PSA like the one offered to them by Hussein.
This is Iraq after six years of occupation by supper power a lady from this empire talking about Iraqi “Government, did you think this functioning government?
First let see what Iraqi “Government” is:
Till now Maliki’s “government” have TEN vacant ministerial portfolios, yes ten 10 ministers to fill vacant ministerial portfolios. What on earth this government will be considered a functioning government?
This by A foriegin vistor to Iraq!!
Secondly remember Paul Bremer before his departure, issued 100 Orders to dramatically restructure Iraq’s economy to fit free-market ideals. And no Iraqi, including future elected officials, can undo them.
Order #57 created and appointed an inspector within every Iraqi Ministry with five-year terms who can perform audits, write policies, and have full access to all offices, materials, and employees of the Ministries.
Then there are the approximately 200 mostly U.S. and other international advisers who will remain embedded as consultants in every Iraqi Ministry well after the official occupation has ended.
Many of these high-level visitors proceed to lecture their hosts “Iraqi” on how to run the country. In the best imperial manner, they recommend who to sack from the cabinet, and who to appoint. They insist on certain laws being passed or demand changes in the constitution
these guys their on the ground doing US agenda still many keep telling that Maliki government have full and all the power with regards to mounting disagreements between the governments in Washington and Baghdad, what hypocrite people there and what a hoax view and ideas we here and read here and there.
Helena talking about mounting disagreements between the governments in Washington and Baghdad,
Did you think readers to this level of stupidity Helena to believe this new Megaphone like Bush doctrine look will hand it to super-Megaphone to new runner?
Did you have your agenda also with Obama and Biden and gate?
Vadim
I’m not afraid by the fact that EU has to get gaz from Russia. It’s always better if you can diversify your suppliers, but apart of that, I have no leftover coldwar toward Russia. I was just pointing to the Irony of the situation : that US who is much afraid of Russia/EU agreements is at the same time preventing the EU to get oil from many other places.
That said, with the emerging markets of both China and India, I think that EU needs more Russia than Russia needs the EU to sell its oil and gaz.
So, vadim, the Russian market is in a tailspin. How’s Wall St doing?
So, vadim, the Russian market is in a tailspin. How’s Wall St doing?
Not as terrible as you might think; all those hedge funds who have been shorting the dow and buying oil are having a rough time lately, since oil is also plummeting. so much for the power of speculators.
Lets put it this way: the s&P hit its peak in september 07 in the mid 1500s, and has retraced to the mid 1200s, approximately a 20% drop in a year – a big move, but not unprecedented. While the RTS (russian stock) index hit a peak of 2500 in early may, and is now flirting with 1600, a 36% drop in 3 months. I guess wars may not be soo good for business after all?
I guess wars may not be soo good for business after all?
The only surprise see while Russian war going is Oil prices dropped!! When each time oil prices up because the trebles in Nigeria, we seen oil jumped six dollar just in two days, that not happened with war started in Georgia!! Why oil kept far from the war? This some thing should be asked?
Anyway most the world market and stock exchanges are affected by US economy problem with housing mortgagees and other lending company who having troubles to maintain themselves without US government help which still not clear.
This has the major factor in the market including Russian market this main problem not the Georgian war as such.
Btw, Helena’s Spam trap hold one of my comment here..
This is somewhat off topic, but mmm Helena, where are you ? I was hoping for some comments concerning the choice of Joe Biden as vice-president by Obama..
Personnally, it found it depressing for pacifists, I thought that Biden was among the Democrat hawks ? Am I wrong or not ?
Yes, Christiane, Biden was one of the Democrats who did the most to enable the invasion. He was an extremely enthusiastic cheerleader for it, and his committee held hearings before the invasion to which he refused to invite anyone to testify who could present information that would suggest it was a bad idea, or unnecessary. People begged him to have people like Hans von Sponek and Scott Ritter, who actually had direct experience of Iraq, and he would not.
Biden is also the foreign policy genius who introduced a bill in the Senate to partition Iraq into three parts along some imaginary set of geo-ethno-sectarian lines. His grasp of Iraqi demography and social history is nonexistent, and he clearly did not bother to examine the source of the conflict so his solution to the problem is to “separate them”. What this great foreign policy “expert” did not realize, of course, is that it is impossible to separate Iraqis in the way he had in mind without destroying millions of families, and breaking up tribes (most Iraqi Arab tribes are mixed Sunni and Shi`a), and generally demolishing the foundation of a society developed over centuries.
And speaking of Hans von Sponek, here is a little-known tidbit. At the time of Biden’s hearings he had recently been in Iraq where he had met with member of Ansar Al Islam (remember them? That was the supposed Al Qa`eda group that was based and operating out of Kurdistan, and lead by that uber-powerful terrorist who had one leg and could be in six places at once, Zarqawi). Well, one of the pieces of information von Sponek would have shared with Biden’s committee was that Ansar Al Islam was fighting against Saddam Hussein and his regime. Now THAT would have been a VERY unwelcome bit of news at that point, wouldn’t it?
In 1998 he called for invasion of Iraq.
He was introduced the bill of divided Iraq to three state and push toward this.
New Obama spoiled black guy he will run the show if he wining and continue Bush doctrine in different style one of the new things to come to complete the dismantle Iraq state to three states hopefully vice president will be the key for this as Chaney was before.
“He’s a true, true coward look to his face.”
While Russian recognizes breakaway Georgian regions the western world US and others who run to Iraq and divided to three zones in 1991 and now they push hard to draw the lines in the sand as they did in 1991 with Iraq and Kuwait dispute of borders when line drawn by US and its allies and Iraq lost 80SqKm of land very rich land with huge oil reserves or as the old folk in ME 100 years that’s was ok and its acceptable through international laws but when Russia doing it its against the international law and it is disgusting.