So in Iraq, earlier today, the (Shiite-dominated) Iraqi government concluded a ceasefire agreement with the Sadr movement… and just hours later the US military started an aerial bombardment of Sadr City that according to this “Voices of Iraq” report lasted six hours.*
What on earth is going on?
Have large parts of the Bush administration and the US military all gone absolutely, criminally bonkers all at the same time?
Only two possible explanations present themselves to me. The first is the “all gone bonkers” one. (Which would also fit with the reports about imminent US missile attacks against Iran.) The other is that this is all part of a sane-but-devilish scheme cooked up by the US military, perhaps in cahoots with some of its people in the Iraqi government… and playing very much according to the “one last battering before the ceasefire gets implemented” playbook followed by Israel in Lebanon in August 2006.
You’ll recall how disastrous that “one last battering” ploy proved to be for Israel at the time.
Anyway, I do note from the “Voices of Iraq” report that the ceasefire goes into operation “Sunday.” (Also noted in the AP/Yahoo account linked to above, and in Xinhua.)
I believe that under the ceasefire agreement the US forces are supposed to leave the positions they had seized inside Sadr City over the past couple of weeks.
It seems to me that in both Sadr City and West Beirut, the anti-US forces have been playing a carefully calibrated game in their relations with national governments that had, until now, been solidly pro-US. (Following Hamas’s playbook there.) Their preferred strategy seems to be not to overthrow or directly confront the national government, unless the national government confronts them… But rather, to do a combination of whittling down the government’s legitimacy while also holding out to it a potential life-raft of cooperation– but on the basis of a nationalist and ever more strongly anti-US platform.
In both Lebanon and Sadre City, the anti-US forces seem to be doing rather well at this game, the ultimate “prize” of which is to win the loyalty of the national government (and therefore, also, all of its international legitimacy.) Given that this game requires smarts, subtlety, patience, and an intimate knowledge of the minutiae of local/national politics, is it any surprise that the US is doing very poorly at it?
I shudder to think of the effects of that six-hour bombardment, though. We peace activists in the US have to redouble our efforts to get the US troops out of Iraq and let the Iraqis have their country back!
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* Big hat-tip to the ever-diligent Badger.
3 thoughts on “Intra-Iraqi ceasefire met with escalated US bombardments”
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Would Sindbad…
Would Sindbad be sad or glad
To be back in Baghdad?
Would he be happy
To stay amid boys and tanks?
Or rather say, “No, thanks!
Bye!I’ll fly to New York!”
Would he eat camel meat or pork
In New York?
Would he have milk and dates?
Or chips and Coke in New York?
Would he play the guitar?
Or the lute and flute in New York?
Would he study democracy at N.Y.U.?
Or tell the Arabian Nights in Jersey City?
Would he miss Layla in New York?
Would he like the people there
On Washington Square?
Would he fall in love in New York?
Would he say, “Get down, baby!”
Or, “If only you knew how much I care!”?
Would he go on air
And say, “Hi Bush and Blair!
No one’s lost, no one’s won.
Stop the war! And let’s move on!”
http://salamlayla.blogspot.com/
Only two possible explanations present themselves to me.
I would add elements of a third which you almost allude to further on… Since the Bush doctrine just underwent a “thumping” in Beirut, this is what I would call the petty revenge of a bloodied opponent.
Oh, dear, Georgie made a big mess again. He said that Jenna’s wedding was “spectacular” while forgetting that “spectacular” is the code word to intensify the bombing of “liberated” Baghdad. Undaunted, Muqtada al Sadr said: “Bring ’em on.”