Jim Lobe, who has brought his expert eye to the art of watching official Washington for many years now, has an excellent entry on his blog titled Key Neo-Cons Giving Up on Iran Attack? He notes that last week’s publication of the ground-breaking NIE that concluded that Iran stopped pursuit of its nuclear weapons program in late 2003 has caused two key leaders of the neocon movement to (1) conclude that it is now unlikely that calls for the GWB administration to attack Iran are unlikely to succeed, and (2) recognize, however grudgingly, that talking to Iran may well be the best thing left to do.
The two are Robert (“father of all the Kagans”) Kagan and Bill Kristol.
You should read and bookmark all of Lobe’s post there– especially since he has hyperlinks to all the key texts he refers to.
He writes that, apart from R. Kagan and Kristol, other key members of Neocon Central (i.e., the “Project for a New American Century”) such as N. Podhoretz, R. Perle, F. Gaffney, and the ever-delusional Danielle Pletka have refused to give any similar nod to reality and have been going around virtually accusing the NIE’s authors of “deliberate deception.” (I heard Pletka doing this on a BBC News program just a couple of evenings ago. I can’t imagine why they would think it worthwhile to give her crazy views any air-time?)
Lobe notes that this division of R. Kagan and Kristol vs. the rest is the same as the way these same people divided when Sharon broke with Netanyahu back in 2004 over the unilateral disengagement from Gaza and the creation of Kadima. (Israel’s rightwing politics is a key touchstone for all of them, you should understand.)
Lobe writes that R. Kagan’s position has been echoed in recent days by two other notable neocon acolytes: Mort Kondracke and the British neo-imperial writer Niall Ferguson.
So there are two more great services that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence did for humanity when they published last week’s report. Not only did they reduce the probability of a Bush administration military attack on Iran by a considerable degree, but they also (1) added considerable new ballast to the weight of those calling for “grand bargain”-type talks with Iran, and (2) they caused apparent chaos and confusion in the neocons’ ranks.
Thank you, thank you, the professionals of ODNI.
6 thoughts on “Lobe on NIE-sparked fissures in Neocon Central”
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Of course, every silver lining has a dark cloud to go with it:
“Bush’s task over the next year, he argues, is to try to restore U.S. credibility — including military credibility — by achieving “victory” in Iraq.”
So now things may get even worse for Iraqis, and any kind or level of “draw down”, let alone withdrawal, because even more remote.
And I really have to ask, are these guys really THIS thick-headed:
“The complete and unequivocal defeat…of Iranian-backed proxies in Iraq is the best way to show Iran that the United States is a serious power to be reckoned with in the region.”
Does he realize that those “Iranian-backed proxies” he wants to defeat unequivocally just happen to be the selfsame Bush-regime-backed make-believe Iraqi government?!!!!! Does he understand that the Iranian-backed Badr Brigade militia is also the militia of Al Hakim, Maliki, et al.?!
“Only if Bush wins in Iraq will the next president have a reasonable chance to defeat the threat of a nuclear-weapons-seeking Islamic Republic of Iran.”
What can anyone add to that?
Isn’t Donald Kagan the father of all the Kagans, including Robert and Frederick?
Oops, I think you’re right, Patrick. Here’s Donald, looking quite old. Thanks for the correction there!
It is so very interesting, though, isn’t it, to see how these neocons hunt in patrilineal packs: Podhoretzi, Kristoli, Kagani, etc.
Yes, indeed. Moreover, it might be mentioned that Norman Podhoretz is Elliott Abrams’ father in law.
Yes, indeed. And it might be mentioned that Norman Podhoretz is Elliott Abrams’ father in law.
So many mysteries.
China just announced a 2 billion oil deal with Iran so I guess that had something to do with the NIE report. I do not think we do Iran without China, as they are a key to the NWO 3 legged school, Anglo-America and Europe being the other 2 legs (Israel at the throne).
Kosovo going to declare Independence is suspicious. This could prompt a response from the Serbs that could trigger a war as we have a large base in Kosovo.
So it may be that Iran was about trying to provoke Russia into a war and finish them once and for all, and since Iran is off the table due to China, we try another way.
Of course, if Israel really wants us to do Iran, they might try to stir things up in Iraq that can be blamed on Iran, and we leave the oil fields that China paid for alone.
Sigh.