Sy Hersh’s latest article in the New Yorker tells us that the Bush administration– and in particular, Dick Cheney and his (previously indicted) Middle East hatchet-man, Elliot Abrams– were “closely involved” in the planning of Israel’s terrifying and lethal assault against Lebanon, hoping that this could be, essentially, a “field test” for the tactics that the US might use in a future attack against Iran.
If so– and Hersh makes a good case that this was indeed the reason for the generous diplomatic and military support that the Bushites gave to the Israelis throughout the assault– then the spectacularly unsuccessful politico-military results of the field test, from the US-Israeli perspective, must have left the Iranian mullahs sleeping much more comfortably in their beds…
Hersh writes:
- The Bush Administration… was closely involved in the planning of Israel’s retaliatory attacks.President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney were convinced, current and former intelligence and diplomatic officials told me, that a successful Israeli Air Force bombing campaign against Hezbollah’s heavily fortified underground-missile and command-and-control complexes in Lebanon could ease Israel’s security concerns and also serve as a prelude to a potential American preëmptive attack to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations, some of which are also buried deep underground.
His sourcing is his oft-used mix of (nearly always un-named) “security consultants”, “former intel officials”, etc, though he does cite a number of intriguing named sources. The piece seems to me to be highly credible.
The main ways in which Cheney was hoping that the Israeli assault could help a future, still-possible US assault against Iran were– according to Hersh’s quite intelligent-sounding sources– twofold:
- (1) Israel’s assault could itself serve as, essentially, a testing ground in which tactics and weapons that the US might use against Iran in the future could be field-tested and evaluated– that’s the “prelude” business Hersh refers to– and
(2) By “taking down” Hizbullah’s capacity to launch blistering rocket attacks against Israel, the Israeli military would remove one of the main factors that might otherwise act as a strong deterrent against any US attack against Iran, maing such an attack more conceivable.
Hersh’s piece reveals a number of significant things about strategic decision-making inside both Israel and the Bush administration.
First, and most evident, is that the Israeli “plan” for taking down Hizbullah was one that relied almost totally on the use of airpower and other forms of stand-off weaponry (ship-launched missiles, drones, etc). This would clearly be the most plannable way in which the Bushites might be planning to attack Ira, since the US, like Israel, harbors an intense wariness to getting bogged down in a ground war.
But of course the “airpower plan” developed and used by IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz failed miserably at taking down Hizbullah’s military capacity– even while it had the entirely predictable political effect of uniting the Lebanese population more firmly around Hizbullah than it had been for the past three or four years.
Interesting results for the “field-test” of tactics that might be used against Iran, huh?
I note that the many Iranian commentators whose work I read, who include many democrats and reformers, are nearly all united in saying that any US military attack against Iran will cause the Iranian population– including them themselves and other dissidents and reformers inside and outside the country– to rally much more strongly around their existing national government than they have for many years, too.
Honestly, though, I don’t think anyone needed a “field test” of the use of widespread anti-infrastructure bombing tactics to be able to reach the conclusion that they would be (a) politically extremely counter-productive, as well as (b) of limited operational value against a well-prepared opponent. My parents stayed in London for much of the Blitz: Bush and Cheney had only to talk to members of the older generation of Londoners (or indeed, of Dresdeners) to find out that air bombardment by foreigners causes a population to rally ever closer round the national flag, not to seek that particular moment in history to rally for deepseated political change.
Worth noting, too: While many Israelis were apparently stunned to discover over the past month that– notably unlike the western powers during their 1999 air assault against Serbia– their own population at home was vulnerable to a hail of rockets launched by Hizbullah in return for the Israeli air assault against Lebanon, the US’s military planners presumably understand quite well that (1) Iran has quite substantial missile and other forces arrayed along its lengthy coast on the northeast of the Persian/Arabian Gulf, and (2) that the supply lines and logistics bases for the US military presence in Iraq and in other Gulf countries are all concentrated either within or on the southwest coast of that same body of water.
… Oh, and did I mention that, number (3), a significant portion of the world’s internationally traded oil supplies also pass through the Gulf, on ships that load at vast terminals arrayed along its southwest coast and then pass through the extremely narrow Straits of Hormuz, which are bordered on one side by Iran?
(Re #2 in that list, Hersh notes that within the Bush administration D. Rumsfeld has acted with uncharacteristic self-restraint throughout the Israeli assault on Lebanon so far. Hersh quotes an un-named “U.S. government consultant with close ties to Israel” as saying, “Air power and the use of a few Special Forces had worked in Afghanistan, and [Rumsfeld] tried to do it again in Iraq. It was the same idea, but it didn’t work. He thought that Hezbollah was too dug in and the Israeli attack plan would not work, and the last thing he wanted was another war on his shift that would put the American forces in Iraq in greater jeopardy.” Well, if Rumsfeld felt that Israel’s war on Lebanon put the US forces in Iraq in greater jeopardy, imagine what effect a US assault on Iran would have on them… )
So altogether, I don’t think Israel’s field test of an airpower-focused assault has gone very well for Cheyney and the other mad-eyed militarists within the Bush administration, do you? Israel’s spectacular failure in achieving either the dismantlement-by-force of Hizbullah’s military capacity or its dismantlement-by-politics (i.e., by turning the Lebanese population against Hizbullah) means that Iran’s leaders must be feeling very relieved indeed today. Indeed, just today, the Speaker of the Iranian parliament announced that the Islamic Republic of Iran would not accept the suspension of uranium enrichment.that had been called for in a recent Security Council resolution. That Islamic Republic News Agency report linked to there tells us that the Speaker, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
- said the recent resolution passed last week by the United Nations Security Council on Iran’s nuclear case has no legal and logical justification.
…[H]e reiterated that the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have witnessed no deviation from civil and peaceful activities in Iran’s nuclear program.
“We believe that the balance between rights and duties should be observed in international organizations,” he said, stressing that the international bodies should not dictate anything to countries while refusing to recognize their rights.
“If Iran is to be deprived of its inalienable rights, there will be no reason for the country to remain a member of the international bodies and the IAEA,” he added.
Well, I for one am very concerned about both the possibility of nuclear proliferation and the current presence of actual nuclear weapons within the Middle East. Let us all of us work to make the whole region into a zone quite verifiably free of all weapons of mass destruction.
That would include requiring the extremely belligerent government of Israel to give up its nuclear weapons, and the extremely belligerent US to take all its nuclear weapons-bearing ships completely out of the Gulf and the Middle East area as a whole. And yes, of course it would also require Iran and all other states of the region to submit completely to IAEA or even IAEA-plus inspections; and would require all these actors to comply in full with the conventions against chemical and biological weapons.
Colonial-style militarism and double standards really have no place in the kind of 21st century I seek to build. All of these conflict and concerns– every single one of them!– can certainly be resolved through negotiation and other nonviolent means, if only (1) we all make every effort to discover, develop, and actually use such forms of conflict resolution, and (2) we base all these efforts on a simple and strong commitment to the equality of all human beings. There are no states or peoples that have any legitimate claim to be given any “special” treatment. All the peoples of the Middle East have long histories of suffering. The challenge now is to help them– and the rest of us!– to get out of the well-turned cycles of increasingly lethal violence.
Re: the last three paragraphs. Well if Israel’s neighbors explicitly recognize its right to exist and
swear off any policy that has the goal of its destruction then they would take away Israel’s motivation to maintain nukes, and disarmament can begin.
( I hope this doesn’t doublepost)
Israel’s neighbors have agreed to recognize its ‘right to exist’ within its 1967 borders. It is Israel’s refusal to accept those borders that is in the way of the recognition the Israelis claim to want but apparently couldn’t care less about.
Before talking about Iran and the test and all of this, it is very clear Helena this talk is smear fishy.
US administration they talking about Big ME plane this plan its represent Big Israel in ME the early days of the dream of the leaders whom they met in 1879 to create Israeli the promise land, this land between two Rivers Al-Neil and The Euphrates River
, So to get this done its need to clean the ground for this project starting with Iraq who was better resources and well organised it took 23 years to bring Iraq to its knees and the rest will follow after in the region Lebanon, Syria and Jordan all easy target they will be taken one by one just wait and see….
What Nasralh brings to Lebanon Helena? You know them very well what they did by this war for Lebanon? Lebanon destroyed the state down now what he brigs to Lebanon? What Nasrallah lost? Did he killed or any one from his family killed or injured? Or he suffering from the lost of electricity or water or he do not have petrol for his cars?
He is just Like Asistani setting over the carnage land with his ugly face with mouth talking what Iran like, this is the reality Helena.
David Tomlin, can you cite your sources of neighbors other than Egypt and Jordan explicitly agreeing to recognize pre-1967 Israel, please? Thanks in advance.
I hope we see indictments for war crimes soon. Nasralllah and certain Israeli commanders should be prosecuted. Iran should be sent a bill for Israeli reconstruction. And who is going to pay for Lebanese reconstruction? My choice is the United States, which provided the irresponsible Israelis with their weapons, and apparently collaborated with them on the war plan.
Arab League initiative adopted at the Beirut summit of 2002.
http://www.al-bab.com/arab/docs/league/peace02.htm
Membership of the Arab League.
http://www.infoplease.com/ce6/history/A0804481.html
Quoting Helena :
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So altogether, I don’t think Israel’s field test of an airpower-focused assault has gone very well for Cheyney and the other mad-eyed militarists within the Bush administration, do you?
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Well, you forgot one thing from the article :
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Nonetheless, some officers serving with the Joint Chiefs of Staff remain deeply concerned that the Administration will have a far more positive assessment of the air campaign than they should
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That is what worries me. That nothing in the world can stop the arsonists. Or maybe an internal uprising. But then again, 50% of americans are still convinced there were WMDs in Iraq (Pew poll, august 2006).
Oh well.
Several weeks ago Alexander Coburn wrote about a visit from a friend six months ago. This person told Coburn that Israel was doomed because they had selected someone with an air force background as the new chief of staff. Such people historically have overestimated the effectiveness of air power.
Colonial-style militarism and double standards really have no place in the kind of 21st century I seek to build.
Please include me in your eminently reasonable plan for the 21st century! Although I don’t originate from (nor live in) the Middle East, I live in the “back yard” of the extremely belligerent USA. With Fidel Castro rapidly approaching his twilight, I wouldn’t doubt there are those in the Bush Administration that are already planning to take advantage of this fact to impose their violent “birth pangs” design to our region as well!
I wonder exactly how many times Dick Cheney has to be proven totally wrong on critical life and death issues before the American people just stop listening to him. One thing I admire about Israeli society is the willingness of its people to immediately challenge bad decisions by their leaders, and demand some sort of accountability. It hasn’t always lead to better decision-making, but at least there is some recognition of reality. Here, we resolve the cognitive dissonance between what our leaders tell us is happening and what we see actually happening by rejecting the evidence of our senses.
A good argument can be made that Cheney is completely insane. He is unable to distinguish right from wrong. He repeats the same destructive acts over and over again, oblivious of the consequences. He is obsessed with secrecy. He believes other people are motivated by the desire to do evil. He rejects all advice that challenges his paranoid world view.
On the other hand, his actions are all consistent with the core belief that whatever is good for big oil companies and defense contractors must be good for America. I’m sure that’s how the world looks from his point of view. The Cheney administration has been very good for those industries, and the small sliver of America with which Cheney is familiar has done very well as a result.
I agree completely with your post John C.
He has not been right on one single thing in the last 6 years (starting with him saying HE was the correct choice for VP). Yet he is still listened to, and things he says are taken seriously. He absolutely reminds me of the famous quote about the leaders of Germany during WW2. ‘The banality of evil’. No, strictly speaking he is NOT ‘evil’, it’s just he is so wrong headed that the results of his beliefs ALWAYS turn out ‘evil’.
For the first time in my long life I am completely disgusted with my country, that they refuse to see through such men.
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2006-08-14 Did Israel lose the war in Lebanon?
If there is an ounce of optimism left in your cup after living through the events of the last five-six years, you have to believe this fragile ceasefire in Lebanon can become the turning point that moves the Middle East from insanity to reason.
After a month of fighting, Israel and Hezbollah both claim victory and defeat for the other side. Such illusions should be used as a means to move back from the brink.
What is required now is to keep pressing for a viable comprehensive peace.
After so much senseless violence, and the obvious illusory quality of battlefield victory, it will eventually become clear to all: peaceful means are not the best way to reach peace, rather peace is the only way to peace.
a dri tai chi master
Amen Sd.
Colonial-style militarism and double standards really have no place in the kind of 21st century I seek to build.
It’s a wish; I don’t think we will see any thing of that wish. It’s very easy that your civilizations built on those values and attitudes, wonder who have that power to change this attitude right now and in our life time!!!!!
Its might useful to read this article (Arabic Text) which illustrated the colonial habit by the west from 1095 till now, so who can change this habit? I beat…
Since the establishment of the cease fire, I’ve heard several statements of both Olmert and Bush declaring that Israel has the right to defend itself, that Hezbollah has to be disarmed and then heavily and threateningly insisting on the fact that Iran stands behind the Hezbollah and that Iran’s influence has to cease. I find that very worrying and wonder whether this isn’t just psyop in order to justify an aggression against Iran. I find it very worrying and a bad sign.
I think that Bush/CHeney want to go after Iran and are preparing for it.
When the US invaded Iraq, many were speaking of the threat of the third world war, but I didn’t believe it then. I thought it was an illegal and unjust war, but that after grabbing the oil, the US would stop there. Especially after it became evident that they were bogged down.
Now I’m less and less sure of it. I think that the violent aggression of Israel against Lebanon and its complete destruction can’t be explained without being included in a larger frame, because it was clearly not in the short/mid term interest of Israel and because of the US didn’t exert any moderating influence.
I think that the neocons and their hawkish imperialist followers in the administration are desperately trying to implement their imperial ME plan before the end of Bush second term. They know this is their last chance to do it. And if the US is in the middle of another war, then they may weel win the next elections.
Sorry to be so pessimist. The more I look at US policy now, the more similarities I find with the German third Reich. What is especially striking is the way the ordinary people have a steadfast faith in the lies/propaganda issued by the Bush administration.
Christiane
the fact that Iran stands behind the Hezbollah and that Iran’s influence has to cease. I find that very worrying and wonder whether this isn’t just psyop
With all due respect of your view, some new report saying Iran paying Hezbollah US$200Million /Month this clearly its not “psyop” and Iran had very close relation with Hezbollah no doubt about that, which made some Arab countries back off this war.
In recent speech Nasrallah claims victory, I don’t know what he meant with this ironic statement, which remind me with Saddam when he forced to withdraw from Kuwaitis in the Massacre of Withdrawing Soldiers on “The Highway of Death” during the ceasefire by Americans and Saddam telling he had Victory.
Having said that, US “Bush Administration saying what the saying about Iran I think they lost there direction in this war same as Saddam did when he went to Kuwait instead of going for Israeli, the reality Iran in EAST there not North Israeli, I don’t see any point that Israeli worry so much from a militia not a state that make her to launch a war with this size.
Both Israel/US talking about Iran danger! So what the real story all of this?
The politics it’s about do what you like to do not telling what you going to do, isn’t?
I saw Sy Hersh on Hardball last night, and I don’t feel as sanguine as you do about what Cheney/Bush might take away from this experience. From what he says — and from all I have read about Iraq — they have learned nothing and will learn nothing from what actually happens. Reality is interpreted through a delusion so deep and self-reinforcing that Bush may honestly believe that Israel was successful in this situation and that the same tactics will work on Iran.
Salah,
I don’t contest the fact that Hezbollah is receiving much help from Iran and perhaps also Syria. However I don’t see why this is a problem; Israel also receives help and money from the US and probably ten times as much.
OK, the US has declared the Hezbollah a terrorist organisation, but the Bush administration declares “terrorist” any organism opposing them and which they want to destroy. So once more, we face a double standard here : what is allowed to Israel is forbidden to the Arabs.
As for the political choice of the Lebanese and whether it is good for them or not to support Lebanon, that is a Lebanese internal question. It is not one concerning Israel nor the US.
I don’t know much about Hezbollah, only what I’ve read here. I understand that they have been doing an important social work helping the poorer in the Lebanese society and that they are involved in regular politic. I can’t judge whether they have a strong tendencies to establish a fundamentalist religious dictatorship or not. What I know is that I’d prefer a homegrown dictatorship over a foreign invader/occupier like the Israeli in the WestBank & Gaza or like the US in Iraq.
What I fear after hearing Bush and Olmert threatening the Hezbollah and behind it Iran is that they are preparing the people to a attack against Iran and I don’t think it would be a good thing for any one nor any country in the world if these hawks manage to sink the whole ME in a general conflict.
I understand that they have been doing an important social work helping the poorer in the Lebanese society and that they are involved in regular politic.
Yap, I did talk about Iranian/Shiite Christiane in Iraq many times I knew what they doing, and for whom and what they like to get from all of that, but in the end Christiane, what we saw in Iraq and in Lebanon right now the state brought down by those who doing “social work” because the acted accordingly with outsiders favour, to us same as Ahmad Galabi and his gang who works for US and the did in Iraq to me its same because in the end we got no state people suffered only those with money and militia (they call the supporters) working in this breakdown state.
Who is responsibility of doing “social work” and serve the society a State or militia?
what is allowed to Israel is forbidden to the Arabs.
This what we saying for 100 years, they divided to states they steal our wealth, they kills millions of us, in name of freedom, its not US, its UK, France Italy, and Spain Christiane, so the time not let us forgot what the west did and doing to us its just same attitude no difference and no surprise here, I don’t to monition the creation of Israel done and supported by EU more that US.
But I agree here this not revenge or hate thinks things gone and we need new start with no war and bomb talk we need to communicate and try to live together for better future for all of us.
I talking to some friend I told him with today communication and satellite we looks like a big family here we hear we feel the others not like the past no one new exactly what those horrible war in ME did and people how much suffered. But today you sleep and weak up on stories and talk in your house just like talking to family members this new life we should all involve to bring the peace to all loved ones.
God Bless
Salah, you may be a bit of a bigot when it comes to Iranians, but you have poetry in your soul.
Peace brother.
On the subject of a U.S. attack on Iran, Cheney has opined that another 9-11 attack would provide a pretext for such an attack.
edq- Dick Cheney stubbing his toe on the way to the fridge would provide a pretext for such an attack.
Christiane,
There’s a difference between U.S. aid to Israel and Iran and Syria aiding Hezbollah. The former is necessitated by the fact that, since its inception, (21,277 days, in fact), Israel has been surrounded by enemies that refuse to allow it the right to exist in peace.
Iran and Syria, on the other hand, are aiding Hezbollah in setting up an occupation regime in the south with the explicit purpose of inflicting harm on Israel and continuing that ugly stain of hatred in the Arab and Muslim world.
I know you probably don’t recognize the difference, because you have previously admitted to harboring a near pathological hatred of the U.S. and Israel. So I expect you to try to create false equivalencies.
Goodness Joshua, you say the people you address don’t need to reply, you already know the bad and wrong things they will say. Isn’t that “monologueing?” Israel will only have peace when it finshes negotiating decent permanent borders, concluding what was done at Taba. People always fight with their neighbours when the boudary line isn’t properly set.
Christiane your logic is compelling but still dont be too pessimistic.
If you look at the neocons strategy they seem a lot more focused and svelte than the blundering nazis were. Putting on such a “dumb face” with Bush is an excellent cover too. It’s a lot smarter to try and get the oil first, while still at peace with much of the world. 60 years ago the ME region was identified as the greatest strategic asset the world has ever seen. But of course, the necons have the luxury of running the only current superpower.
But there were fewer deaths around Lebanon today. Maybe something good has happened, at least for a while.
Goodness Joshua, you say the people you address don’t need to reply, you already know the bad and wrong things they will say. Isn’t that “monologueing?” Israel will only have peace when it finshes negotiating decent permanent borders, concluding what was done at Taba. People always fight with their neighbours when the boudary line isn’t properly set.
Christiane your logic is compelling but still dont be too pessimistic.
If you look at the neocons strategy they seem a lot more focused and svelte than the blundering nazis were. Putting on such a “dumb face” with Bush is an excellent cover too. It’s a lot smarter to try and get the oil first, while still at peace with much of the world. 60 years ago the ME region was identified as the greatest strategic asset the world has ever seen. But of course, the necons have the luxury of running the only current superpower.
But there were fewer deaths around Lebanon today. Maybe something good has happened, at least for a while.
Sorry for the double post above-had an “internal server error”