Condi Rice seems to have been edging toward a realization that you can’t for very long hope to both use Syrian power to help rein in Hizbullah and attack the Syrian regime politically on a sharp, continuous, and very childish basis.
This AP article reports that,
- Rice said Sunday the United States’ poor relationship with Syria is overstated and indicated an openness to working with Damascus to resolve the crisis.
As with everything else halfway sensible she is planning to do regarding the crisis, this tiny shift of emphasis is far too little, far too late.
The administration seems to have gotten to the point where it has zero capacity of its own to judge political dynamics in the Middle East, that is separate from the constant barrage of hasbara (propaganda) and “advice” it gets from the Israelis and their allies. Hence its officials seem to have believed that the “Sunni-Shiite divide” that the Israelis and their allies have been trying to play up for all it is worth in the region as a whole (as in Iraq– pursuant to longtime Israeli front-man Martin Indyk’s April 2003 advice to Bush to play divide and rule there for all its worth) would really bring Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia into diplomatic play regarding Lebanon and strongly on the anti-Hizbullah side.
It ain’t that simple. All those three countries have large and politically publics. Especially Egypt and Jordan. Neither those publics– nor, I have to say, any of the leaders of those regimes– can stomach the sight of what Israel has been doing, with, up to now, the full support of the Bush administration to the people and country of Lebanon.
I read this, also in the same AP piece, which is by someone called Kathy Gannon:
- Arab heavyweights Egypt and Saudi Arabia were pushing Syria to end its support for the guerrillas, Arab diplomats in Cairo said.
A loss of Syria’s support would deeply weaken Hezbollah, though its other ally, Iran, gives it a large part of its money and weapons. The two moderate Arab governments were prepared to spend heavily from Egypt’s political capital in the region and Saudi Arabia’s vast financial reserves to break Damascus from the guerrillas and Iran, the diplomats said.
Syria said it will press for a cease-fire to end the fighting — but only in the framework of a broader Middle East peace initiative that would include the return of the Golan Heights. Israel was unlikely to accept such terms but it was the first indication of Syria’s willingness to be involved in efforts to defuse the crisis.
In Washington, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal asked President Bush to intervene.
“I have brought a letter from the Saudi King to stop the bleeding in Lebanon,” Saud told reporters after the Oval Office meeting.
I had to issue a wry laugh. This Mubarak regime in Egypt is willing to “spend deeply from its political capital in the region” to aid US efforts to rein in Hizbullah?? And what political capital would that be, pray?
I don’t think Rice is sincere. She says things like “ceasefire urgently needed”, but since she doesn’t mean it, she adds that first “the right conditions will have to be met”, meaning, that a ceasefire will be urgently needed, when Israel gives the green light. They have to show that they are doing something, so they say things like this to play for time and keep the journo’s writing.
Same with the socalled NATO peacekeeping force (peacekeeping? Such a force wouldn’t shoot attacking Israeli plains from the sky, one can be sure of that, so the only thing they can do is to occupy south-Libanon as proxy for Israel). I don’t believe that Israel will allow such a force, so it probably won’t happen, but they talk about it to play for time and feed the media.
“Condoleezza Rice has described the plight of Lebanon as a part of the “birth pangs of a new Middle East” and said that Israel should ignore calls for a ceasefire.”
Wounder that the bombs that are destroying the lives of 350s of Lebanese, destroying billions of dollars of buildings, belongings, and infrastructure,are NOT in any way, shape, or form like the pangs of birth “from a weman never married/ never given birth Condi””
By Rami G. Khouri
Daily Star staff
Saturday, July 22, 2006
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=74154
“Another irony is that Bush fails to grasp that Hizbullah’s rise to prominence in the past quarter century in many ways represents a reaction to the three principal causes of mass dissatisfaction, anger, fear and humiliation among Arab populations: ineffective and autocratic Arab governments, an aggressive and predatory Israel, and a US that supports both of these tormentors of ordinary Arabs. If these underlying problems are not addressed and resolved, groups like Hizbullah will continue to emerge organically from the Middle Eastern soil, regardless of what happens to Hizbullah in the coming weeks.”
Rami is quite right in the point he makes there. Which is why from the beginning of this crisis I’ve been calling for a serious international (UN-led) effort to rapidly find a comprehensive and sustainable final resolution to the Israeli-Arab conflict. That’s a necessary but not sufficient part of any needed effort.
Here’s Salim Lone’s take on the UN.
Peace in the ME (outside Iraq, which seems now beyond human intervention) requires 4 things:
1. A negotiated two-state solution based on the ’67 borders.
2. Returning the Golan Heights to Syria
3. US security arrangement with Iran that recognizes its regional dominance.
4. Points 1-3 have to be addressed together in a “grand bargain.”
Everything else is, as they say, commentary. In particular, the disarming of Hezbollah will never happen without 1-3.
America’s refusal to see that all three points are coupled is bad news for the region.
“I don’t think Rice is sincere.”
What was your first clue? That she was saying something?
The more sincere Rice is, and the more she makes an honest attempt to get a ceasefire (I guess it could be possible), the more certain we can be that Bolton will sabotage her diplomacy.
From the Times of London:
“. . .One senior Israeli official told The Times that Dr Rice’s visit would provide a distraction from the humanitarian situation in Lebanon, while the protracted nature of her tour gave Israel another week to continue its military operations.”
“The more sincere Rice is, and the more she makes an honest attempt to get a ceasefire (I guess it could be possible)…”
I cannot speak to her personal life, but in her public life that – ummmmmm – person (and I use the term loosely) hasn’t got a sincere bone in her body.
Look, anyone who can, with a straight face, say that what is happening to Lebanon now is a “birth pang” is spectacularly shameless. Surely even she knows what a crock of shit that is, and yet she has no difficulty saying it.
Helena.Which is why from the beginning of this crisis I’ve been calling for a serious international (UN-led)
Read this Helena
“During a briefing with senior officials at several major Jewish organizations, Deputy National Security Advisor Elliot Abrams reportedly said that a multinational force in Lebanon would have to be “combat ready,” authorized and appropriately equipped to engage Hezbollah militarily if needed.”Let be fair about Bush, most the US administrations ironically loved Israel and they support Israelis right from day one.
But no doubt Bush he is the worst one.
Don’t forget those serving the administrations as advisers and security and specialists like Henry Kissinger and others whom they stair US polices in ME for the best interest of Israelis.
Menno,
I agree with the first part of your comment. However I don’t think that the idea of involving NATO has been uttered for the same reason. This demand was first stated by the Israelians who said that they were agreeing to an international peace corp, as long as it was composed from Europeans. I think that both the US and Israel are trying to get the EU involved in this war. Because if you have an international (European) force there with the mission to disarm Hezbollah, this is only a way to get the EU to do what the Israelians aren’t able to achieve right now.
I hope that the EU will resist to such an involvement. if not, that may well be the beginning of the III world war.
Sk,
Thanks for the link to Salim Lone’s article in the Guardian. This is a must read.
I think he is right : thanks to the US manipulations and handlings, the UN is now completely discredited; her power of intervention in the ME is reduced to zero.
This remember me to the fate of the UN predecessor, the Society of Nations, which died in shame before WWII.
All this, Bolton helping, bodes very badly for the future. I’m now really fearing a WWIII.
I can’t help hate America for what she is doing right now in the ME and to the UN.
What is the most despicable in all these last conflicts is that the US/Israel are only attacking the weakest countries with overdominant firepower. Talk about an absolute injustice. It remembers me of Hungary in 1956 and the Spanish civil war at the end of the thirties. When international and humanitarian laws are so openly breached without much of a reaction, one can only feel ashamed. I hope that in the end, these crimes will be punished, like the nazi were. This is what they deserve.
Talking about the sincerity of C. Rice; Juan Cole has the following characterisation of the lady:
“Rice’s visit showed how low American stock has fallen in the Middle East, since she came virtually empty-handed, merely as a go-fer on behalf of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, with little positive to offer. Berri thunderously rejected her ultimatums, or rather those of her political bosses. She came with nice words but Israeli bombs hit Beirut before and after her visit, according to my sources. Her professions of sympathy rang hollow, since her government was encouraging the bombing raids and blocking any UN or European move toward a cease-fire. She played no more exalted a role than Mafia enforcer, lifting her suit coat at the corner to display the loaded pistol as she discussed just how much the owner of the Lebanese restaurant would be paying per month for “protection” from certain of her “friends,” or else, you know, something bad could happen to this nice restaurant of yours.”
link: Informed Comment
Because if you have an international (European) force there with the mission to disarm Hezbollah, this is only a way to get the EU to do what the Israelians aren’t able to achieve right now.
You may be right; but the Israeli’s in my view aren’t likely to ‘outsource’ their military domination over border-area’s or occupied territories to any other military than their own. Their self-esteem is much to high for that; I doubt they think much of European armies and wouldn’t hand over what they consider to be vital interests to them.
Look he just open his mouth and gave advice here and judgment in this war
Guess whom, NOAH FELDMAN the doggy Iraqi constitution creator
He said read carefully:
“Democracy means that you cannot blame someone else for troubles caused by your own government”
July 21, 2006
The Way We Live Now
Ballots and Bullets
By NOAH FELDMAN
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/21/magazine/30wwln_lede.html?_r=2&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Ok Iraqi chaos who to be blamed Noah?
“Their self-esteem is much to high for that”
Don’t you mean their macho bravado? People with self-esteem don’t have a need to run around bullying everyone weaker than they are. There is little worse, you know, than a 98 pound weakling who suddenly realizes he has become an 800 pound gorilla.
I used “self-esteem” as a euphemism for “arrogance”.
So replace “self-esteem” with “arrogance”. If “arrogance” is too soft, let me know. I’ll change it into something more negative. Okay?
“I can’t help hate America for what she is doing right now in the ME and to the UN.”
Yes, I’ve noticed that hateful Helena’s blog attracts many other hateful commentators, such as yourself and “Shirin.”
Amazing, comparing the United States and Israel to nazi war criminals. Christiane really has no shame.
What does one expect when a supposedly sovereign nation outsources its military defense, including border patrol, to a private militia with its own agenda (putting aside the questions of the agendas of its two foreign sponsors and the UN Resolution demanding the disarming of this militia)?
And that well armed militia decides to cross the international border and attack a well armed neighbor?
Did they expect the neighbor to pelt their country with roses and sweets?
What does one expect when a supposedly sovereign nation outsources its military defense, including border patrol, to a private militia with its own agenda (putting aside the questions of the agendas of its two foreign sponsors and the UN Resolution demanding the disarming of this militia)?\
What one expects? Not what actually happens, by the way; the militia in question, numbering a few thousand, is capable once more to hold its own against the Murdurous Bully from the North, which unleashed its Machine of Death and Destruction, armed to the teeth by its sponsors in Washington, to kill and destroy Lebanese men, women and children, and bomb the infrastructure of Lebanon to smithereens; for the second time in history this mighty Machine is humbled by this tiny militia from Lebanon.
fine for Nasrallah, Assad and Ahmadinejad…but what’s in it for the Lebanese people?