Iraq: an empowered government?

I’ve been a little AWOL here recently in commenting on political developments inside Iraq. I guess once the US machinations against Daawa/Sadr were rebuffed I figured that that was one significant watershed, and that Nuri al-Maliki’s subsequent work of government formation would be almost impossible to follow from a distance.
I do, however, have a couple of questions that I need answers to. And I invite readers to help us all find answers!
The first question is this: Even if supposing Maliki is able to pull together a coalition of government ministers that can win a robust majority in the parliament (not terribly difficult)– will it actually be able to govern the country?
I see two main problems in this regard: first, the still heavy hand of the US occupation presence throughout the country, including inside most of the important ministries; and second, the extreme degradation of the administrative and other capabilities of the ministries that has occurred under the US occupation to date. (Obviously, those two problems can’t be completely disaggregated.)
For example, if you’re even something as innocuous (and necessary) as the Minister of Agriculture, and you want to make sure that farmers are getting everything they need in terms of seeds, credit, fertilizers, marketing help, veterinary services, etc– well, how on earth do you do it unless you have a functioning ministry, the ability to communicate with all the parts of the country, reliable procurement mechanisms, etc etc?
… And my second big question is this: If, as is expected, Maliki announces his government over the weekend, do I take the ‘Democracy Denied in Iraq’ counter down off the sidebar here at that point, or wait a bit before deciding that?
I guess this latter judgment has to do with whether I judge that the government has sufficient democratic legitimacy for me to take the counter down, or not. The whole concept of the counter was based on the judgment I’d make back in December that the vote then, though flawed, did have sufficient bona fides to be counted as democratically legitimate. (As I have written before in connection with developments in Afghanistan and elsewhere, in the context of a complex political transition what one is looking for is not a completely perfect election but one that is sufficiently free and fair.)
Anyway, regarding the “Democracy Denied in Iraq” counter, after I put up here in early 2005, during the complicated post-election negotiations that led to Ibrahim Jaafari’s formation of a broad “transitional government”– as soon as he had formed it, I took the counter down. I gave him the benefit of the doubt at that point, really.
But this time, the situation is more serious. This government is supposed to be “the real thing”: Iraq’s real, full-term, and presumably fully empowered national government. Not a “transitional” government any more.
But how fully empowered will it be in practice? (See my first question above.)
The views of readers on these points are very welcome…
Meanwhile, let’s all just note that it is now 154 days— just about five months– since the December 15 election. Given the decisive nature of the results of the election, coalition formation absolutely need not have lasted more than one month. So Amb. Zal Khalilzad’s machinations have robbed the Iraqis of four months of self-government already. And it is not just that those “stolen” four months were neutral ones for Iraqis. Indeed, nearly the whole of the past five months has seen a ghastly exacerbation of insecurity throughout the country…
End the occupation and all its machinations! Bring the US troops home!

16 thoughts on “Iraq: an empowered government?”

  1. Helena
    The resemblance of the situation to that of the Holy Roman Empire in the early years of the Thirty Years War is quite striking.
    The Pentagon must feel like they are herding cats as they watch Iraq, Iran, Syria, Georgia, Afghanistan, strange doings in Pakistan, a recalcitrant Turkey a resurgent Russia and now Somalia going down the tubes.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/05/19/dl1902.xml
    It is fairly clear that, unlike the Italians, they aren’t going home from Iraq any year soon.
    You and I will be very old if we live to see the peace conference so perhaps you best set aside more space of laying out Boots.

  2. Whether what is forming at last in Iraq is a “government” really is something Iraqis will decide. So I tend to think your counter should come down — we just don’t know.
    I’m not hopeful that what is coming of this will have the capacity to put Humpty Dumpty together again. But from the U.S., I feel my obligation to folks there is simple: keep pushing to get the U.S. out. Give them a chance to solve it. It is so broken that the result likely will be ghastly, but the present is also ghastly.

  3. “Whether what is forming at last in Iraq is a “government” really is something Iraqis will decide. So I tend to think your counter should come down — we just don’t know.”
    Iraqis won’t be free to decide anything at all as long as the Americans are there in any official capacity.
    Keep the counter up.

  4. Tomdispatch had two excellent posts about this (With Michael Schwartz) on March 9 and March 12 this year. Schwartz analyzes the situation in the Kurdish, Sunni, and Shia (south) areas of Iraq, as well as the state of the (local) Iraqi Police and military. The conclusion is that the central government has almost no control and very little influence over the territory outside the Green Zone and little prospect of that changing.

  5. My post deleted by Helena, looks Helena believes that Iraq independent and US power there for a training trip all around Iraq.

  6. “The conclusion is that the central government has almost no control and very little influence over the territory outside the Green Zone and little prospect of that changing”
    This is a fact from day Paul Bremer handover scenario; there is no need for any analyzing.
    For six months those group trying “Puppets” to show us their government they have fighting for their personal interests, their differences to win new things in the new divided Iraq.
    Look in Basra south that the Mayer spoken loudly that Iranians/backed by Sistani Reps. doing a doggy things there.
    Today Adel Abdul Mahdi admitted there is an outsider acts in the city “obviously Iran, also may Kuwiaties” and economic problem “oil smuggling or Looting the right word”.

  7. Salah– My post deleted by Helena… I honestly didn’t intend to delete a post of yours there, Salah, and if I did I’m really sorry.
    I’m busy fighting a lot of attacks from horrible spambot commenters and sometimes I “mass-delete” comments and delete too many… Occupational hazard.
    Anyway, I’m glad you put another comment up.
    One issue with the counter — sorry to get picky here, but I want to get it right– is that the wording of it now does strongly imply that what occurred in Dec 2005 was an election of some democratic legitimacy. Can we even conclude that? I’m guessing Salah would say “no” and Shirin might be saying “yes” (or might not).
    Would it be more relevant to count only the number of days that Iraq has been occupied and leave “democracy” out of the discussion there?

  8. Hmmm, Where is the democracy counter for Egypt? Or for most of the Arab world. You’ll need lots of digits in a counter that measures Arab world tyranny.
    BTW, the “denied” part is due to their own inability to get over sectarian and power grab priorities. It is not denied by anybody except themselves. They keep blowing each other’s shrines and flesh over some minutia like whether a fellow named Ali was right or wrong seven centuries ago. I would keep the counter but rename it “Iraq ineptitude counter”.

  10. وتجدر الاشارة الى ان القتل ليس هو الأمر الوحيد الذي قضى على أي أمل في المستقبل. فقد انتظر العراقيون لمدة خمسة اشهر لتشكيل حكومة دائمة، بعد التصويت في انتخابات عامة في شهر ديسمبر (كانون الأول)، وبالرغم من ان القيادات السياسية على ابواب الاعلان عن حكومة جديدة، فإن بعض العراقيين يقولون ان حجم الجدل الذي استغرقه تشكيل الحكومة يجعلهم يشكون في انها ستتمكن من حل المشاكل الاكبر.
    وقال عبد الكريم المحمداوي، وهو من شيوخ القبائل من العمارة في جنوب العراق، الذي قاتل لسنوات طويلة ضد صدام حسين، ان الموقف يشبه «إنجاب طفل مشوه».
    http://www.asharqalawsat.com/details.asp?section=3&article=363968&issue=10035
    Helena, call it in any name but not democratic process.

  12. Helena, please forgive me for limiting myself to the short answers to your questions. It is all I can manage at the moment, though I hope to elaborate soon.
    “Even if supposing Maliki is able to pull together a coalition of government ministers that can win a robust majority in the parliament (not terribly difficult)– will it actually be able to govern the country?”
    Not in anyone’s wildest dreams. The reasons include but are not limited to the ones you enumerate.
    “If, as is expected, Maliki announces his government over the weekend, do I take the ‘Democracy Denied in Iraq’ counter down off the sidebar here at that point, or wait a bit before deciding that?”
    No way!
    “…what occurred in Dec 2005 was an election of some democratic legitimacy. Can we even conclude that? I’m guessing Salah would say “no” and Shirin might be saying “yes” (or might not).”
    For a number of different reasons, I do not find any democratic legitimacy in anything that has occurred in Iraq under US auspices.

  13. Would it be more relevant to count only the number of days that Iraq has been occupied and leave “democracy” out of the discussion there?
    Helena, I’d choose that last possibility. Speaking of democracy in the case of Iraq doesn’t make much sense, because even if MP were elected and if hopeful Iraqi voted for them, they aren’t really free to manage their country as they chose. There is always the US pushing/holding strings in the background. Their pressions against Jaafari were clear.

  14. “what occurred in Dec 2005 was an election of some democratic legitimacy. Can we even conclude that? I’m guessing Salah would say “no”
    Helena, I am speechless for what you wrote.
    I fell sorry for some one like you had the knowledge and experienced with the reign still believes of “democratic legitimacy” in Iraq which most Iraqis will tell you “denied democratic legitimacy”.
    what occurred in Dec 2005 at that time Iraqis had no choose, they thought this might fix there searching for freedom and independence they lost, because the invasion of their country, but the reality it was one day show, how we can call that a “democratic legitimacy” when a major elements its LAW and ORDER both are missing in Iraq.
    what’s done its were names put on the table smears of ethnic dividedness which lead more troubles in future for independent united Iraq, noting there are 100 orders put by Paul Beremer which ironically denied the legitimacy of Iraq State as one nation.
    Meanwhile some senior US official Robert Ford admitted that Iraqis they don’t like to see Iraq be divided:

    I have not in my 2+ years here yet met an Iraqi who thinks this would be a good idea. They want to stay a single country and they have had one for the past 85 years. They also want to get their security situation under control, they want to have safe streets and a growing economy.

    Having said that, Jack Straw stated before and I think still valid comment till now Iraq it’s a “Failed State”, how some one agrees to set firstly the democratic process in a “Failed State”?
    As one commentator posted Iraqi Government have no power outside Green Zone, so what’s the democratic process we talking about here.
    Dose the process of “democratic legitimacy” needs to fix firstly the State and make all the requirements then should we starting to consider the democratic process step by step.

  15. part is due to their own inability to get over sectarian and power grab priorities.
    While your grand nations lives wildly killing each others, those Arab in Iraq as you read, then followed by Islam and Islamic nation from whom you learnt your Sciences and mathematics, and your follow “U.S. Institute for Peace explore these striking similarities to forge a new relationship with Iraqis and educate Americans about the democratic principles inherent in Islam?” Isn’t The Wild Davis?

    There was once a civilization that was the greatest in the world.
    It was able to create a continental super-state that stretched from ocean to ocean, and from northern climes to tropics and deserts. Within its dominion lived hundreds of millions of people, of different creeds and ethnic origins.
    One of its languages became the universal language of much of the world, the bridge between the peoples of a hundred lands. Its armies were made up of people of many nationalities, and its military protection allowed a degree of peace and prosperity that had never been known. The reach of this civilization’s commerce extended from Latin America to China, and everywhere in between.
    And this civilization was driven more than anything, by invention. Its architects designed buildings that defied gravity. Its mathematicians created the algebra and algorithms that would enable the building of computers, and the creation of encryption. Its doctors examined the human body, and found new cures for disease. Its astronomers looked into the heavens, named the stars, and paved the way for space travel and exploration….
    While modern Western civilization shares many of these traits, the civilization I’m talking about was the Islamic world from the year 800 to 1600, which included the Ottoman Empire and the courts of Baghdad, Damascus and Cairo, and enlightened rulers like Suleiman the Magnificent.

    CARLY FIORINA
    MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA
    SEPTEMBER 26, 2001

    Mr. President. I have a more general question about the United States’ work to democratize the rest of the world. Many have viewed the United States’ effort to democratize the world — especially nations in the Middle East — as an imposition or invasion on their sovereign rights. Considering that it was, in fact, the Prophet Mohammed who established the first known constitution in the world — I’m referring to the constitution he wrote for the city of Medina –and that his life and the principles outlined in his constitution, such as the championing of the welfare of women, children and the poor, living as an equal among his people, dissolving disputes between the warring clans in Arabia, giving any man or woman in parliament the right to vote and guaranteeing respect for all religions, ironically parallel those principles that we hold most precious in our own Constitution. I’m wondering how might your recently formed Iraq Study Group under the U.S. Institute for Peace explore these striking similarities to forge a new relationship with Iraqis and educate Americans about the democratic principles inherent in Islam?

    President Bush Discusses Global War on Terror

    — the first constitution was written by Hammurabi in Samaria, modern-day Iraq. (Laughter.)

  16. You’ll need lots of digits in a counter that measures Arab world tyranny.
    Correction to above
    You’ll need lots of digits in a counter that measures “Arab/Backed by US” world tyranny.
    Look to your best friend you cried for them when they flee the country like hence, whom make you ballooners by rush you by Kuwaitis money just to put them again in power. They dismantle what they call “Parliament” before the stinks comes out of those Al-alsubah corruptions

Comments are closed.