Rice tries to sell the unsellable

As I noted earlier, these are fateful days in Iraq. Condi Rice, fresh from the embarrassment of the reception she got from the good people of Blackburn, Lancashire, flew to Baghdad with her friend Jack Straw to try a hands-on approach to subverting the results of last December’s election.
But what they are trying to sell to Iraqi politicians is, it seems to me, notably unsellable. Their basic pitch (in public) is, “If you Iraqis want to get rid of the occupation forces then you need to hurry up and form a government.” But Rice (and Straw, for what it’s worth) are still also apparently determined that Ibrahim Jaafari, the person duly nominated to the PM post by the largest bloc in the parliament, is “unacceptable” to the occupation forces. So they have been wheedling and doing goodness only knows what else to try to get as many Iraqi politicians as possible to come out publicly against the Jaafari nomination…
In recent days they won two breathlessly reported tactical victories, winning public statements from two political figures within the victorious UIA alliance who called for Jaafari to step down. The two are Qasim Daoud, the head of the small Movement of Iraqi Democrats (hat-tip to Reidar Visser, there) and Jalaleddine al-Saghir of SCIRI.
But here’s the thing. In insecurity-plagued, traumatized circumstances like those in which the Shiite (and most other) Iraqis are currently living, what would persuade any individual to go against the opinion that is still sustained by a majority of members of the community with which which he/she most closely identifies? I suppose it could be a judgment that working with (rather than against) the Americans at this point would be “good” for the general interest of the person’s community of identification– or, an expectation of professional, financial, or other forms of personal advancement…
But if the Americans are also, at the same time, saying that they want this Iraqi government formed so that the occupation forces can get out, then it strikes me it is going to be hard for them to attract any Iraqis– but most especially, any Shiite Iraqis– to their anti-Jaafari scheme for any but the basest of personal motives.
Everyone knows the Americans are currently the declining power inside Iraq… So why would any Iraqis seek to hitch their wagon to them? Unless it’s for the sake of that secret bank account in Switzerland, promises of Green Cards for all members of the extended family, etc etc…
While Rice and Straw were having their “newsmaking” sleepover visit to the Green Zone Sunday/Monday, they met a bunch of Iraqi pols, of course. Including, they held a notably frosty meeting with Jaafari himself. One person they didn’t meet with, but with whom they were evidently extremely eager to communicate while there, was Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
This AFP report from Baghdad notes that,

Both envoys praised Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the spiritual leader for much of the country’s majority Shiite community, for his aid in building a new Iraq, suggesting he could help break the political deadlock.
“Without the remarkable spiritual guidance shown by his eminence, the Grand Ayatollah Sistani, this country for all its problems it now faces would not have in its hands the potential for a better future,” said Straw.

This slavering praise of Sistani came after President Bush early last week tried to send a letter and accompanying verbal message to Sistani– but, as that AP story from March 31 there noted, the letter sat “unread and untranslated” in Sistani’s office.
The unnamed Sistani aide quoted in that AP report,

said the person who delivered the Bush letter – he would not identify the messenger by name or nationality – said it carried Bush’s thanks to al-Sistani for calling for calm among his followers in preventing the outbreak of civil war after a Shiite shrine was bombed late last month.
The messenger also was said to have explained that the letter reinforced the American position that Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari should not be given a second term. Al-Sistani has not publicly taken sides in the dispute, but rather has called for Shiite unity.
The United States was known to object to al-Jaafari’s second term but has never said so outright and in public.
But on Saturday, U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad carried a similar letter from Bush to a meeting with Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the largest Shiite political organization, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. [As noted here.]
The al-Sistani aide said Shiite displeasure with U.S. involvement was so deep that dignitaries in the holy city of Najaf refused to meet Khalilzad on Wednesday during ceremonies commemorating the death of the Prophet Muhammad. The Afghan-born Khalilzad is a Sunni Muslim…

… So all in all, the occupying governments’ attempts at using “diplomatic strongarming” to get the Jaafari nomination withdrawn seem to have failed. What will they try next?