How to exit from Iraq

For some reason, the Bush administration has still not taken the advice I’ve been giving it for more than two years now, quite simply to get out of Iraq. I can’t think why. Maybe they don’t know how to organize this logistical feat?
So as a free public service to them, I am happy to offer them the following handy nine-point plan for how to do it.
(1) Head south
Looking at the logistics, it seems a happy coincidence that one of the least badly-run parts of the country is the British zone in the south. Since most of the US forces will need to be “redeployed” out of the country by sea, and the only outlet to the sea is in the south, the British presence in and around Basra is rather handy. Not that Basra’s port will be able to handle anything like this volume of traffic– or, probably, much at all. But the troop convoys will most likely need to transit Basra on their way towards the ships and planes awaiting them in nearby Kuwait.
(2) Auxiliary exit routes
Turkey, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia might all also be willing to allow transit rights to the redeploying troops. I somehow suspect Syria and Iran would not be so happy to do so. However, no doubt the Iranians would be happy to negotiate some kind of an arrangement whereby– in return for some quid pro quo– they might undertake not to harass US troops leaving Iraq along routes close to Iran or its vital sea-lanes, so long as the redploying troops stick to agreed corridors and a known timetable of redeployment.
(3) One potential can of worms
Some folks in the Pentagon and elsewhere might still be tempted to leave a successor force in Iraqi Kurdistan. This seems like a real can of worms. They could easily become just as bogged down there as the UN presence is in Kosovo, six years after the US-led war to “rescue” Kosovo’s ever-fractious people. (The international-law status of both areas could become very similar– that is, Kurdistan’s could become just as murky and basically unsustainable as Kosovo’s if the US succeeds in breaking it off– but only partially– from the rest of Iraq.)
(4) How can US troops redeploying out of Iraq be assured they won’t be harrassed/attacked along the way?
This is a concern with some validity. The US authorities could negotiate an agreement on this matter with the Jaafari government. Of course, at present, the Jaafari government is not a body viewed as representative by many Iraqis, especially the more nationalistic ones. But if he could say to his compatriots: “Look, here is the plan for the total withdrawal of US troops so let’s all calm things down,” then he actually might suddenly develop nationwide credibility. And even if he didn’t gain that, simply the fact that the US troops are visibly following a well-publicized and timely withdrawal schedule would certainly mean that many other Iraqi leaders at the local level would come forward and say, “Yes, let’s make sure this goes smoothly.”


(5) Iraq after the withdrawal
What happens inside Iraq after a total US pullback? Firstly, this is really no concern of the US authorities. Secondly, the kind of scaremongering scenarios voiced by many in the US political elite– about a “bloodbath” or “civil war” or whatever– have little credibility. Most of the people mongering these fears are people who have zero knowledge of Iraqi society. But they are exactly the same kind of propaganda as was discussed widely in Israel in the years leading up to that country’s historic May 2000 unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon… And on that occasion, not one of the scaremongery scenarios of bloodbaths, retribution, etc., ended up happening. Also, did I mention that whatever happens in post-withdrawal Iraq, it’s none of Washington’s damn’ business?
(6) Speed
Given the need to muster the necessary sealift, airlift, and other logistics, I think that 4-5 months from the date that Washington makes the total-withdrawal decision to the time the last British squadron follows the last US troops out of the door would be about right. And contrary to what some folks say I believe that, once a total-withdrawal decision is made, announcing it as soon as possible will help ensure more calm for the period of the withdrawal, rather than less. Let’s face it, the Iraqis and most of their neighbors will be delighted by the decision!
(7) Making amends
The Iraqis would be even more delighted if the US were also to announce a fair-minded policy of reparations to their country, and to offer to work cooperatively with any representative government that emerges there.
(8) What role for the UN?
I see that Juan Cole has recently expressed himself in favor of the US force somehow being transformed into a UN force as part of the withdrawal scenario. (At least, I think that was what he was proposing.) I used to argue this myself, until about a year ago. Now, for a number of reasons, I think it’s probably a dead duck of an idea. The UN has inexorably lost legitimacy on the Iraq issue, the more it has gotten dragged along in the slipstream of the Bushies. For it to now collaborate in giving yet more cover to what would likely be continuing US designs on Iraq would be a sure path for the organization’s continued decline. (See Kosovo, above. Then imagine that multiplied by 100.) Also, I don’t see the other Permanent Members of the UNSC– apart from Tony Blair, of course– as nowadays being ready to throw in their lot with Bush’s imperial adventure in Iraq to this extent.
What the P-“3” and other nations might well be prepared to see the UN do is more modest:- to organize the kind of regional consultations that will be necessary if the US withdrawal is to succeed (especially important with Iran); to help coordinate a truly good-faith international rehabilitation effort in and for Iraq (as opposed to one that is forced, as at present, to work within the constraints of Washington’s imperial designs); to help sponsor meaningful progress on regional security issues, quite broadly…
(9) A last word
The last American (or Brit) to leave, please don’t forget to tell the Iraqis that they are now free to switch on their own lights. As I recall, they did a pretty good job of that, all on their own, after the hammering their infrastructure took from US airpower in 1991.

12 thoughts on “How to exit from Iraq”

  1. I have often wondered if the Cambodian massacre would have happened if the US had pulled out of Vietnam in 1966. I know there would be a whole lot less dead and injured Americans.
    re Juan Cole: he was sitting in front of a US Senate Committee meeting about a year ago saying that the people of Iraq would want US forces to stick around until they have a well-built military. He reports lots of information about Iraq, however, his analysis of the situation is continually flawed. He was all for the invasion and occupation until the UN and the rest of world did not sign on, then he has some “bad feelings” about how the US/UK would handle the situation. Recently, he has argued with me in email about how non-violence is not the solution to problems (oh, and I’m always so impressed at how well the war & violence solution works out for people and countries).
    as to making ammends: no doubt, the US should. I think that handing Iraq a bunch of money would be a poor idea, since it will lead to more graft and corruption. I think the USA should pay off each and every penny of Iraq’s foreign debt. That way, they have a clean slate, and the countries that get paid have some cash to go in and invest in Iraq if they want to – and maybe they will handle it better than the UN. They surely can’t do worse than the USA has done, which made the UN look extremely good in both money management and honesty.
    But, they are not likely to listen to me now any more than they did when I was running around frantically saying that Iraq had no WMDs, was not a threat to any country, and was not among the top 10 human rights abusers. They will continue on this march of folly, and god knows where it will lead. I can tell you where I think it will lead, and it is a very ugly picture.
    All credit to the Bush administration for this total evil mess they made.

  2. “How can US troops redeploying out of Iraq be assured they won’t be harrassed/attacked along the way?”
    They have no right to demand such assurances given what they did to retreating Iraqi troops in 1991.

  3. Helena, you obviously don’t understand why we need to stay the course in Iraq. As Tom Friedman would say, let me explain:
    1. We can’t stop the war – which is not about oil – because that might cause oil prices to go up. Also, someone else might get control of all that oil – not that we care about that.
    2. We can’t stop the war, which the rest of the world thinks was based on lies told by our government, because that would hurt our credibility abroad.
    3. We can’t stop the war, in which we have to kill lots of Sunnis and Shiites, because then some Sunnis and Shiites might kill each other.
    4. We can’t stop the war, in which so many of our soldiers are getting killed or grievously injured, or committing suicide, or suffering from PTSD and becoming alienated from their families, because that would be bad for their morale.
    5. We can’t stop the war, which has created the world’s greatest laboratory and training ground for international terrorists, because global terrorism is up 300% since we started, and if we quit that would encourage the terrorists.
    6. We can’t stop the war, which we started in order to bring peace to the region, because the region obviously isn’t peaceful, which you can tell by the fact we’re in the middle of a war, so we have to keep fighting. For peace.
    See, once you think it through, it all makes perfect sense.

  5. We can’t stop the war – which is not about oil – because that might cause oil prices to go up. Also, someone else might get control of all that oil – not that we care about that.
    Rubbish, there is one fact behinde this war, these talks to divert the real cuase.
    One question I would like to ask, If Iraq very poor country (no oil no resources) did US come to this country and invaded?
    Whey you don

  6. This is what we think about the Iraqi government propaganda when brings on TV saying this is the insurgences
    This is a story of woman (khalida Zakia 46 years old) from MUSSEL arrested from here home and tortured by different ways, she telling here story (Arabic Text) for the news paper
    http://www.assafir.com/iso/today/world/108.html
    Ok this new Bader militia they do the dirty job this is the new Iraqi Special Forces (the Fox barricade) the proxy for Americans.

  7. Salah,
    John C’s list of arguments detailing why the US can’t get out of Iraq is an ironical one pointing to the lies and contradictions of the Bushies own arguments. It shows their bad faith clearly. It is a subtle and great post ! Congrat John C.

  8. 8. We can’t stop the war, which we started in order to bring water to Israel. Because Israel is running out of water, and the only water around is in Iraq. And people get thirsty when there is no water.

  9. John C’s comment is indeed a great one. However, in a radically multicultural conversation like this one, in which many people may be struggling with reading English as their third or fourth language, irony can be hard for such readers to identify. (I would find it hard to identify irony in writings in Arabic or Spanish, I’m sure.)
    Hence, I try to write “irony alert” in my posts when I’m using irony. I don’t think it ruins the effect very much for people who had recognized the irony anyway. But I think it can be a big help to non-native language readers.

  10. “in order to bring water to Israel. Because Israel is running out of water, and the only water around is in Iraq.”
    All of these vessels were concealed and interred in a tower in the land of Babylonia, in a city named Baghdad.”
    Look how these peoples thinks, they use to use same ways of falls allegations and create falls stories to make the public believe and support of course with heavy propaganda.
    To make a new history of course coupled with researchs, science and Talmud which written by some of followers we knew that some pages vanished and some stories added or edit by those they wrote it.
    This is to feed their hunger for power and greediness to steal the wealth of other nations.
    Baghdad: For Centuries a Major Centre of Jewish Life
    First Publication:
    Jewish Free Press, March 15 1991.

  11. Thanks to Christiane and Helena for cleaning up after me. I didn’t mean to cause a disturbance in the force.*
    *refers to “Star Wars” movie series

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