Radical change in Arab world

Nearly all Arab-world political systems have become completely ossified over recent decades. The last time there was a major, region-wide series of shifts was around 1970. That was the year, for example, that Egypt’s President Gamal Abdel-Naser died and– within days of that occurrence– the relatively conservative “corrective movement” wing of the Syrian Baath Party headed by Hafez al-Asad took over from the much more populist and radical wing of the party that had preceded it.
The PLO guerrillas got chased out of Jordan that year, too. Altogether, the shifts of 1970 were toward much more cautious, status-quo-preserving powers taking over. Saddam Hussein, who was consolidating his grip on power in Iraq at that time, was part of that trend.
Anwar as-Sadat, who came in that year, was assassinated in 1981 and was succeeded by his Vice-President Hosni Mubarak, who has made a point of not naming his own VP since then. (I wonder why not?)
Hafez al-Asad died in 2000 and was succeeded by his son Bashar, a.k.a. at the time, “the default option”. Nothing very new there. Of course, the western media which often tends to go gaga over youthfulness, thought that Bashar’s youth itself was sufficient to qualify him for being a visionary innovator. How wrong can you be? (As I noted at the time.)
Arafat, wily old survivor that he was, succumbed to some physical cause last year. In that case, my theory that youthfulness often signifies only increased caution was amply rewarded, since the notably un-youthful Abu Mazen has been considerably bolder and more sure-footed politically than the (other) “Old Man”.
Oops, I forgot Saddam. He got toppled almost two years ago, and has been replaced by…. Who knows what?
Well anyway, a major emerging trope in the so-called “coverage” of the western new media has become that the “implantation of democracy” in Iraq has led to a gathering cascade of democratization throughout the region… Starting with elections in Palestine (everyone conveniently forgetting or downplaying the successful elections there in 1996, which led politically to a resounding success for Arafat and diplomatically to a total dead end. RIP.)… Carrying on with the much-lionized “red and white revolution” in Beirut (western media people conveniently neglecting the extremely large, yellow-flagged Hizbullah demonstrations in Beirut of ten days ago)… And now, there’s even Hosni Mubarak saying (gulp!) he’ll allow competitive elections in Egypt at the end of the year!!!!
How much substance– and what substance, exactly– is there in all this?
Well, it sure is interesting to live in a time when history, the march of which has been stayed by US-backed stasis and conservatism for the past 35 years, suddenly starts galloping into fast-forward.
One thing I really don’t understand, though, is the shallowness and wishful thinking of all the commentators here in the States who look at what’s happening and say something very simplistic like, “Oh, people power! Great! That’s bound to come out in a pro-US way because the people there will all see how much the US has done for them!”
One first thing to note is that, for all the western swooning over the “success” of Iraq’s election on January 30, the winners in that election have thus far not been allowed by the occupation forces to come to power at all!
(And meanwhile, Allawi’s puppet government has been passing decrees to clamp down on civil society, etc. What possible “legitimacy” can such steps have at this point, I wonder?)
As a US citizen, I see my main task as being to continue pushing hard for the ending of the illegitimate US diktat over Iraq, and the implementation there of the Iraqi people’s will. Right now. No excuses.
But I’m also happy to look at the other countries in the region where the US is active….

Here’s something totally bald-faced and amazing: On Monday, the State department issued its annual Human Rights report to Congress. In the report, the Bush administration got to sound off about human rights abuses in many countries around the world, including Middle eastern countries.
For example, this, about Egypt:

there were numerous, credible reports that security forces tortured and mistreated detainees. Human rights groups reported that the State Security Investigations Service (SSIS), police, and other government entities continued to employ torture to extract information, coerce opposition figures to cease their political activities, and to deter others from similar activities….
Principal methods of torture reportedly employed by the police and the SSIS included stripping and blindfolding victims; suspending victims from a ceiling or doorframe with feet just touching the floor; beating victims with fists, whips, metal rods, or other objects; using electrical shocks; and dousing victims with cold water. Victims frequently reported being subjected to threats and forced to sign blank papers for use against themselves or their families should they in the future complain about the torture. Some victims, including male and female detainees and children, reported sexual assaults or threats of rape against themselves or family members. While the law requires security authorities to keep written records of detentions, human rights groups reported that the lack of such records often effectively blocked investigation of complaints.

I expect just about everything in that litany is true. More’s the terrible, terrible pity.
But here are my questions:

(1) When will any US administration actually take steps–using the many means of leverage at its disposal– to stop such behavior by the Egyptian security forces?
(2) When will the US stop completely the practice of “rendering” to Egypt and other “friendly” rights-abusing governments persons whose torture it wants to have happen, but that it wants to out-source? And most important of all…
(3) When will the US itself cease and desist from engaging in these and other similarly abusive practices?

Frankly, I find it totally mind-boggling that anyone at all, anywhere in the world, gives the US “Human Rights Report” any credence at all at a time less than a year after the revelations of the massively systematized abuse that took place at Abu Ghraib… And at a time when the US administration is still trying to argue that, “no law prevents the Central Intelligence Agency from engaging in inhumane treatment of detainees abroad.”
Ah, you may ask, but what has all this to do with the great march of democracy? A lot, dear friends, a lot.
First of all, it’s impossible for any institution to claim that it supports “democracy” around the world if it is actually itself a major abuser of people’s most basic rights and dignity. Secondly, I submit, the Bush administration’s two-faced “record” on human rights– that is, claiming it opposes rights abuses elsewhere while it actually massively not only condones them but is also complicit in their commission– is very likely indeed to be paralleled by a similarly two-faced record on democratization… That is, it might well claim it wants to see the spread of democratization throughout the Middle east; but if the “popular will” were actually to get enacted in almost any Middle eastern country, just see how fast the Bushies would revert to supporting the men with the tanks….
So I see all these intriguing things that are now happening throughou the region as significant test-cases:
Will the people’s will actually be allowed to prevail in Iraq?
How about in Lebanon— where Hizbullah is still far and away the best-organized political party (indeed, many Lebanese say, the only true political party at all), and where, if the electoral system is made more truly democratic than it currently is, Hizbullah will probably increase its standing at the polls next May?
How about in Palestine— where Hamas is still poised to do very well in the upcoming parliamentary and municipal races?
Or Egypt… Or Syria… Or Saudi Arabia… Or Jordan… Or just about anywhere in the Arab world?
I’m not in favor of fitna and regional instability and upheavals. I’m not anti-American. I just think it’s time that every one of God’s children in that part of the world got an equal chance at determining her or his future, and his or her place in this interesting world of ours, to the chance that other people get.
Is that too much to ask?
[Note for those of you who wonder why I gave up on my “no blogging” pledge so fast: (1) I did great work on my Africa book today, and (2) This topic cried out to me to blog it!]