Can hasty, ill-planned elections actually impede democratization in post-conflict societies? You bet they can. “It is one of the perverse realities of postconflict elections that this lynchpin of the democratic process can also be its undoing,” argues Benjamin Reilly of the Australian National University in a recent book on “The U.N. Role in Promoting Democracy”
The book will be launched by its publishers– the United Nations University– in New York next Thursday. But some its main points have been previewed in an op-ed that university vice-rector Ramesh Thakur has in today’s Daily Yomiori.
Thakur writes (fairly optimistically, imho) that, “in Afghanistan, the world’s most fledgling democracy, President Hamid Karzai succeeded in legitimizing his rule through elections and preparing the ground for a longer-term peaceful system of power-sharing arrangements.” Then he asks,
- Will the same happen in Iraq in January? Hopefully, but not necessarily.
An election by itself cannot resolve deep seated problems, particularly in a society deeply traumatized by conflict. According to a new U.N. University study of experience in several countries, ill-timed or poorly designed elections in volatile situations can be quite dangerous. They risk producing the very opposite of the intended outcome, fuelling chaos and reversing progress toward democracy. They can exacerbate existing tensions, result in support for extremists or encourage patterns of voting that reflect wartime allegiances.
He notes that,
- elections have had mixed success in meeting the broader goals of democratization. In some cases, such as Namibia and Mozambique, they played a vital role in making a decisive break with the past. In others, such as Angola, flawed elections created more problems than they solved. And in Bosnia premature elections helped to kick-start the fa�ade of democratic politics but also helped nationalist parties cement an early grip on political power.
It is still too early to judge how elections have influenced the peace-building process in other post conflict societies such as Kosovo, East Timor and Afghanistan. However, one of the most important lessons learned from recent U.N. missions is that imposing elections too early, for example while a country is still in conflict, can act as a catalyst for the development of parties and other organizations whose sole purpose is to help local elites keep a tight rein on power.
And he warns, quite rightly, of:
- The risk … that the domestic political need for an early exit strategy [i.e., domestic within the troop-contributing or occupying powers] can determine the timing of the election rather than the best moment for maximizing positive outcomes.
Thakur is far too diplomatic to name any names in this regard… One hint: it probably isn’t Israel he’s talking about, as having a “domestic political need for an early exit strategy.”
Civil War looms in Iraq:
Pepe Escobar
This corresponds to a zionist plan as old as the hills detailing the systematic fragmentation of the Arab world:
Free Arab Voice
a 1982 report publicised by the late Israel Shahak. If FAV goes down again I have backed this up at:
Spookspot“>http://spookspot.blogspot.com/2004/11/shia-in-zionist-regional-planning.html”>Spookspot
— I have reappeared after sulking for a week or so. since it is boring standing in the corner mute.
I think that the destabilization of Iraq must have been the goal of many of those in the administration who sold the war to Bush. He seems to me to believe in the democracy cant, but clearly, there are other forces at work both here and in Iraq, who have absolutely no interest in ‘democracy’ and ‘freedom’ for all Iraqis. And Bush is easily blinded by anyone who has his ear, so he can think that killing insurgents actually will make elections possible and that is only the Shi’a are happy, well, that’s okay because the Sunnis are baddies.
And all these people in our administration apparently favor force over any other means of resolving conflicts of interest. Furthermore, they are open in acknowledging that the over-riding interest is our own security, not the Iraqis’.
And, now, just to top it all off, a little hysterical exaggeration from our friends at Al Hayat:
“Israel’s Battle in Fallujah, by Rashid Khashana”
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